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The NationalThe National
EconomyEconomy
The National Economy
The Scope of Macroeconomics
The scope of macroeconomics
Microeconomics and macroeconomics
 Microeconomics studies the interrelationships between individual units:
e.g. households, firms and industries. Macroeconomics studies the
economy as a whole.
 Macroeconomics, like microeconomics, looks at issues such as output,
employment and prices; but it looks at them in the context of the whole
economy.
The major macroeconomic issues
 economic growth
 This is a sustained growth in national output. All
governments try to achieve stable growth by avoiding
both recessions and excessive booms in business and
general economic activity
 unemployment
 It is the number of people who are actively looking for work but
are currently without a job. Reducing unemploy’t is the aim of every
gov’t b’cos it represent a waste of human resource and a drain on
government revenue.
 Inflation
 It is a general rise in prices throughout the economy.
 Rate of inflation is the percentage increase in prices over a
12-month period.
 balance of payments and exchange rates
 Bal of paym’t is A record of the country’s transactions with the rest of
the world
 Exchange Rate is the rate at which one national currency
exchanges for another
The major macroeconomic issues….. Cont’d
The rate of inflation is defined as:Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. the difference in the price level
this year compared with the
same time last year.
B. the rise in costs over the previous
twelve months.
C. the absolute increase in average
prices over the previous twelve
months.
D. the percentage increase in the
weighted average level of prices
over the previous twelve months.
E. the percentage expansion of the
economy over the previous
twelve months.
The scope of macroeconomics
From these 4 issues, Government macroeconomic
policy aims at:
High and stable economic growth,
Low unemployment,
Low inflation and
avoidance of balance of payments deficits and
excessive exchange rate fluctuations
 These goals conflict with each other, therefore,
the order of priority in which they are pursued
depends on the government’s preferences
Aggregate Demand (AD)
One way in which the four objectives are linked is
through their relationship with aggregate
demand (AD).
This is the total spending on goods and services
made within the country.
AD consists of four elements
 Consumption expenditure (C)
 Investment expenditure (I)
 Government spending (G)
 Exports (X) less Imports (M)
AD = C + I + G + X - M
The Circular Flow of Income
 It’s the diagram that shows the income
received and payments made by each sector
of the economy
 It can be used to show how the four
objectives are related to aggregate demand
Factor Payments Consumption of
domestically
produced goods
and services (Cd)
The circular flow of income
Firms
Households
The circular flow of income
The inner flow
 Households receive their income (factor payments) by
selling their resources to firms
 Households spend their entire income on goods and
services (i.e. they do not save)
 Firms pay out all this income they receive as factor
payments to domestic households
 In the real world, NOT all income are gets passed on round
the inner flow; some is withdrawn. Others are injected into
the flow from outside
A more realistic
version of the circular flow diagram
The circular flow of income
Withdrawals (W) (or leakages)
 Are incomes of households or firms that are not
passed on round the inner flow
 They equal the sum of:
 net saving (S) (i.e. net of drawing on savings)
 net taxes (T) (i.e. Taxes minus Transfer pay’ts)
 import expenditure (M)
 W = S + T + M
Factor
payments
Consumption of
domestically
produced goods
and services (Cd)
Investment (I)
Government
expenditure (G)
Export
expenditure (X)
BANKS, etc
Net
saving (S)
GOV.
Net
taxes (T)
ABROAD
Import
expenditure (M)
The circular flow of income
WITHDRAWALS
INJECTIONS
Injections (J)
 They are expenditure on the production of domestic
firms coming from outside the inner flow of the
circular flow of income
 They equal the sum of
 investment (I)
 government expenditure (G)
 export expenditure (X)
J = I + G + X
The circular flow of income
Assume that a Ghanaian insurance company
sells insurance across the world.
In which component of Ghana’s circular flow of
income would this be included?
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%A. Investment
B. Consumption
C. Imports
D. Exports
E. None: they are
transfer payments
Aggregate demand consists of
which one of the following?
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. Total consumption + saving
B. Injections + withdrawals
C. Consumption of
domestically produced
goods + injections
D. Consumption of
domestically produced
goods and services +
withdrawals
E. Consumption + (exports –
imports) + (government
expenditure – taxes) +
(investment – saving)
Which of the following would represent
a rise in aggregate demand?
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. A rise in saving.
B. A fall in investment.
C. An increase in taxes.
D. A fall in consumption.
E. A rise in exports.
The circular flow of income
The relationship between injections and
withdrawals
 the links between them
 S loanable funds I
 T gov’t revenue G
 M foreign income X
BUT, planned injections may not equal
planned withdrawals
The Circular flow and the 4 macro. objectives
If injections exceed withdrawals (J > W),
 national income will rise,
 unemployment will tend to fall,
 inflation will tend to rise,
 imports will tend to rise and exports fall (resulting
in Balance of Trade deficits, and possibly BOP
deficits).
The reverse will happen if withdrawals exceed
injections.
Equilibrium in the circular flow
If injections exceed withdrawals ((J > W)
 the rise in national income will lead to a rise in
withdrawals.
This will continue until W= J.
At this point, the circular flow will be in
equilibrium.
The National Economy
Measuring National Income
National Economy
National income (output) is usually measured
in terms of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
Gross domestic product (GDP)
is the total market value of all final goods
and services produced within the country
over a 12-month period
23 of
38
What Is Counted and Not Counted in GDP?
1. GDP includes all items produced in the
economy and sold legally in markets.
2. GDP ignores all transactions in which money or
goods change hands but in which no new goods
and services are produced.
1. That is, it excludes financial transactions and income
transfers since these do not reflect production E.g..
Lottery, Government Transfer Payments such as
interest on Government Debt, Scholarships, etc.
4. GDP excludes black market items, such as
illegal drugs.
5. GDP excludes services that are
produced and consumed at home and
that never enter the marketplace.
Caring labor, the work that is normally
produced by women.
24 of
38
25 of
38
Exclusion of Output Produced Abroad
by Domestically Owned Factors of Production
GDP is the value of output
produced by factors of production
located within a country.
Output produced by a country’s
citizens, regardless of where the
output is produced, is measured
by gross national product
(GNP).
Measuring national income
The three ways of measuring GDP
 the product method
 add up the value of all the goods and services
produced in the country, industry by industry
 the income method
 Add up the incomes received by factors of prodn (i.e.
wages and salaries, profits, rent and interest)
Components of National Income
 Compensation of employees
 The wages and fringe benefits earned by workers.
 Proprietors’ income
 The income of noncorporate businesses, such as small farms, mom-
and-pop stores, and law partnerships.
 Rental income
 The income that landlords receive, including the imputed rent that
homeowners “pay’ ’to themselves, less expenses, such as
depreciation.
 Corporate profits
 The income of corporations after payments to their workers and
creditors.
 Net interest
 The interest domestic businesses pay minus the interest they
receive, plus interest earned from foreigners.
from national income to personal income
Personal Income is equal National Income
 minus Corporate Profits, Social Insurance
Contributions, Net Interest
 plus Dividends, Government Transfers to
Individuals, Personal Interest Income
Disposable Personal Income is Personal
Income minus Personal Tax and Nontax
Payments.
 We are interested in disposable personal income
because it is the amount households and noncorporate
businesses have available to spend after satisfying their
tax obligations to the government.
the expenditure method
 Sum up all expenditures necessary to
purchase the nation’s production
i.e. C+I+G+(X-M)
Measuring national income
£million
Consumption expenditure of households and NPISH (C) 893 414
Government final consumption (G) 296 900
Gross capital formation (I) 257 513
Exports of goods and services (X) 368 337
less Imports of goods and services (M) –415 817
Statistical discrepancy 695
Gross domestic product (GDP) (at market prices) 1 401 042
plus Net income from abroad 6 818
Gross national income (GNY) 1 407 860
less Capital consumption (depreciation) –158 143
Net national income (NNY) 1 249 717
Gross National Income and Net National Income
The circular flow of national income and expenditure
One man’s spending is another man’s
income
(1) Production
(2) Incomes (3) Expenditure
The circular flow of national income and expenditure
National
Product
National
Income
National
Expenditure
≡ ≡
 Because of the way the
calculations are made, the three
methods of calculating GDP must
yield the same result
Gross National Income and Net National Income
The expenditure method
 GDP (at market price) ≡ C + G + I + X – M
Gross national income (GNY) = GDP plus Net
Income from abroad
Net national income (NNY) = GNY minus
Depreciation
Given the following data about an economy
(in £bn), what is the level of national income?
Q
Saving 100 Consumption 350
Exports 200 Imports 250
Net tax revenue 120 Government
expenditure
140
Investment 130
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. £470bn
B. £480bn
C. £570bn
D. £670bn
E. £820bn
Taking account of inflation
 If we are to make a sensible comparison of one
year’s national income with another, we must take
inflation into account.
Nominal GDP
GDP measured at current prices.
Real GDP
GDP after allowing for inflation.
 GDP measured in constant prices: i.e. in terms
of the prices ruling in some base year
If, over the past year, nominal GDP has
risen by 5% and inflation has been 2%,
which of the following is true?
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. Real GDP has increased by 3%.
B. Real GDP has increased by 5%.
C. Real GDP has decreased by 2%.
D. Real GDP has decreased by 3%.
E. It is impossible to say what has
happened to real GDP.
Taking account of population: the use of per-capita
measures
 GDP is a measure of total national income
(output)
 GDP per Capita or Per capita income
Is output or income per head
It’s calculated GDP divided by total
population
 Useful for comparing living standards of
different countries
Problems of measuring national output
the problem of double counting
 Recording intermediate goods twice with the
consequence that the GDP is overstated.
 Can be avoided by counting only final products or
 By measuring the value added at each stage of
production
Non-marketed items such as ‘do-it-yourself’
and other home-based activities
The ‘underground’ economy
 consists of illegal and hence undeclared transactions
……Something to Think About…….
Are GDP statistics good indicators
of welfare?
……..GDP figures Ignore…….
human costs of production
 i.e Increases in GDP means reduced leisure hours
Externalities
 i.e. pollution, ozone layer depletion global warming etc.
the production of ‘regrettables’ leads to
increases in GDP
 Faster growth leads to more crimes and more expenditure
on security
distribution of income
production does not equal consumption
 Greater part of GDP may be exported or invested
The National Economy
Short-term Growth and the
Business Cycle
The distinction between actual and
potential growth
Having looked at how output is measured and its
usefulness as a welfare indicator, the next issue we
want to look at is it growth (behavior) over time.
Before looking at what causes growth, its good to
know the types of growth we usally talk about
Actual output is national output that is actually
produced.
actual growth
 the % annual increase in national output
actually produced
………Potential output and growth
Potential output is the output that could be
produced in the economy if there were a full
employment of resources.
potential economic growth is the speed at
which the economy could grow
 the % increase in the economy’s capacity to produce
Major factors contributing to potential
economic growth
 An increase in resource i.e. Ghana’s oil discovery
 An increase in the efficiency through
technological advancement, improved labor skills etc.
Output Gap
Output Gap is the difference between actual and
potential output
the gap is positive when actual output exceeds
potential output
 Implying the economy is operating above normal capacity
utilization
The gap is negative when the potential output
exceeds the actual output
 the economy is operating below normal capacity utilisation.
 there is probably an increase in unemployment
To close a negative the actual growth rate must
exceed the potential growth rate
Which one of the following
is definitely true?
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%A. Actual growth can never be
greater than potential growth.
B. Actual output can never be
greater than potential output.
C. If potential output exceeds
actual output there is a
negative output gap.
D. If potential growth exceeds
actual growth there is a
positive output gap.
E. All of the above.
GoodX
Good Y
O
a
b
c
Growth in
actual output
Growth and the production possibility curve
O
Growth in
potential output
GoodX
Good Y
x
I II
Growth and the production possibility curve
O
Growth in
actual and
potential output
GoodX
Good Y
x
I II
y
Growth and the production possibility curve
If there is an increase in potential output
there will be a parallel outward shift in the
production possibility curve.
Q
A. B. C.
33% 33%33%
A. Always
B. Never
C. Possibly
........The business cycle..........
Actual growth tends to fluctuate. A country
experiences
 boom when actual growth is high
 Recession when actual growth is negative
Business cycle or trade cycle refers to the
periodic fluctuations of national output round
its long-term trend.
O
Nationaloutput(GDP)
Time
Full-capacity
output
Actual
output
The business cycle
Upturn or Trough
Expansion
Peaking out
recession
The phases of the business cycle
1. The upturn or recovery
• In this phase, a contracting or stagnant
economy begins to recover, and growth in
actual output resumes.
2. Expansion
• During this phase, there is rapid economic growth:
the economy is booming.
• A fuller use is made of resources
• the gap between actual and potential output
narrows.
The phases of the business cycle
3. The peaking out
 During this phase, growth slows down or even ceases.
4. The slowdown or recession or slump
 During this phase, there is little or no growth or even a
decline in output.
 Increasing slack develops in the economy
 In official statistics, a recession is defined as when an
economy experiences falling national output (negative
growth) for two or more quarters
 The length of a business cycle is measured from
trough to trough or from peak to peak
The length of a business cycle
could be measured from:
Q
A. B. C. D. E.
20% 20% 20%20%20%
A. peak to peak.
B. peak to trough.
C. trough to peak.
D. point of most rapid
growth to point of
most rapid decline
(or slowest growth).
E. Any of the above
The irregularities are due to……
the length of the phases
 Some booms (and reccessions) are shortlive,
lasting only few months
 Others are much longer, lasting over several years
the magnitude of the phases
 Some booms (and recessions) occur at high rates,
say 4% or more per annum
 On other occasions growth is much gentler and can
even stagnate.
Causes of fluctuations in growth
 changes in aggregate demand (AD= C+I+G+X-M)
A rapid rise in aggregate demand will create shortages.
This will tend to stimulate firms to increase output, thus
reducing slack in the economy
changes in aggregate demand relative to
potential output
Without an expansion of potential output, rises in actual
output would eventually come to an end, as spare capacity is
used up.
Two determinants of growth in the long run
Growth in aggregate demand
Growth in potential output
ECONOMICS1

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ECONOMICS1

  • 2. The National Economy The Scope of Macroeconomics
  • 3. The scope of macroeconomics Microeconomics and macroeconomics  Microeconomics studies the interrelationships between individual units: e.g. households, firms and industries. Macroeconomics studies the economy as a whole.  Macroeconomics, like microeconomics, looks at issues such as output, employment and prices; but it looks at them in the context of the whole economy. The major macroeconomic issues  economic growth  This is a sustained growth in national output. All governments try to achieve stable growth by avoiding both recessions and excessive booms in business and general economic activity
  • 4.  unemployment  It is the number of people who are actively looking for work but are currently without a job. Reducing unemploy’t is the aim of every gov’t b’cos it represent a waste of human resource and a drain on government revenue.  Inflation  It is a general rise in prices throughout the economy.  Rate of inflation is the percentage increase in prices over a 12-month period.  balance of payments and exchange rates  Bal of paym’t is A record of the country’s transactions with the rest of the world  Exchange Rate is the rate at which one national currency exchanges for another The major macroeconomic issues….. Cont’d
  • 5. The rate of inflation is defined as:Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. the difference in the price level this year compared with the same time last year. B. the rise in costs over the previous twelve months. C. the absolute increase in average prices over the previous twelve months. D. the percentage increase in the weighted average level of prices over the previous twelve months. E. the percentage expansion of the economy over the previous twelve months.
  • 6. The scope of macroeconomics From these 4 issues, Government macroeconomic policy aims at: High and stable economic growth, Low unemployment, Low inflation and avoidance of balance of payments deficits and excessive exchange rate fluctuations  These goals conflict with each other, therefore, the order of priority in which they are pursued depends on the government’s preferences
  • 7. Aggregate Demand (AD) One way in which the four objectives are linked is through their relationship with aggregate demand (AD). This is the total spending on goods and services made within the country. AD consists of four elements  Consumption expenditure (C)  Investment expenditure (I)  Government spending (G)  Exports (X) less Imports (M) AD = C + I + G + X - M
  • 8. The Circular Flow of Income  It’s the diagram that shows the income received and payments made by each sector of the economy  It can be used to show how the four objectives are related to aggregate demand
  • 9. Factor Payments Consumption of domestically produced goods and services (Cd) The circular flow of income Firms Households
  • 10. The circular flow of income The inner flow  Households receive their income (factor payments) by selling their resources to firms  Households spend their entire income on goods and services (i.e. they do not save)  Firms pay out all this income they receive as factor payments to domestic households  In the real world, NOT all income are gets passed on round the inner flow; some is withdrawn. Others are injected into the flow from outside
  • 11. A more realistic version of the circular flow diagram
  • 12. The circular flow of income Withdrawals (W) (or leakages)  Are incomes of households or firms that are not passed on round the inner flow  They equal the sum of:  net saving (S) (i.e. net of drawing on savings)  net taxes (T) (i.e. Taxes minus Transfer pay’ts)  import expenditure (M)  W = S + T + M
  • 13. Factor payments Consumption of domestically produced goods and services (Cd) Investment (I) Government expenditure (G) Export expenditure (X) BANKS, etc Net saving (S) GOV. Net taxes (T) ABROAD Import expenditure (M) The circular flow of income WITHDRAWALS INJECTIONS
  • 14. Injections (J)  They are expenditure on the production of domestic firms coming from outside the inner flow of the circular flow of income  They equal the sum of  investment (I)  government expenditure (G)  export expenditure (X) J = I + G + X The circular flow of income
  • 15. Assume that a Ghanaian insurance company sells insurance across the world. In which component of Ghana’s circular flow of income would this be included? Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20%A. Investment B. Consumption C. Imports D. Exports E. None: they are transfer payments
  • 16. Aggregate demand consists of which one of the following? Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. Total consumption + saving B. Injections + withdrawals C. Consumption of domestically produced goods + injections D. Consumption of domestically produced goods and services + withdrawals E. Consumption + (exports – imports) + (government expenditure – taxes) + (investment – saving)
  • 17. Which of the following would represent a rise in aggregate demand? Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. A rise in saving. B. A fall in investment. C. An increase in taxes. D. A fall in consumption. E. A rise in exports.
  • 18. The circular flow of income The relationship between injections and withdrawals  the links between them  S loanable funds I  T gov’t revenue G  M foreign income X BUT, planned injections may not equal planned withdrawals
  • 19. The Circular flow and the 4 macro. objectives If injections exceed withdrawals (J > W),  national income will rise,  unemployment will tend to fall,  inflation will tend to rise,  imports will tend to rise and exports fall (resulting in Balance of Trade deficits, and possibly BOP deficits). The reverse will happen if withdrawals exceed injections.
  • 20. Equilibrium in the circular flow If injections exceed withdrawals ((J > W)  the rise in national income will lead to a rise in withdrawals. This will continue until W= J. At this point, the circular flow will be in equilibrium.
  • 22. National Economy National income (output) is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the country over a 12-month period
  • 23. 23 of 38 What Is Counted and Not Counted in GDP? 1. GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets. 2. GDP ignores all transactions in which money or goods change hands but in which no new goods and services are produced. 1. That is, it excludes financial transactions and income transfers since these do not reflect production E.g.. Lottery, Government Transfer Payments such as interest on Government Debt, Scholarships, etc.
  • 24. 4. GDP excludes black market items, such as illegal drugs. 5. GDP excludes services that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace. Caring labor, the work that is normally produced by women. 24 of 38
  • 25. 25 of 38 Exclusion of Output Produced Abroad by Domestically Owned Factors of Production GDP is the value of output produced by factors of production located within a country. Output produced by a country’s citizens, regardless of where the output is produced, is measured by gross national product (GNP).
  • 26. Measuring national income The three ways of measuring GDP  the product method  add up the value of all the goods and services produced in the country, industry by industry  the income method  Add up the incomes received by factors of prodn (i.e. wages and salaries, profits, rent and interest)
  • 27. Components of National Income  Compensation of employees  The wages and fringe benefits earned by workers.  Proprietors’ income  The income of noncorporate businesses, such as small farms, mom- and-pop stores, and law partnerships.  Rental income  The income that landlords receive, including the imputed rent that homeowners “pay’ ’to themselves, less expenses, such as depreciation.  Corporate profits  The income of corporations after payments to their workers and creditors.  Net interest  The interest domestic businesses pay minus the interest they receive, plus interest earned from foreigners.
  • 28. from national income to personal income Personal Income is equal National Income  minus Corporate Profits, Social Insurance Contributions, Net Interest  plus Dividends, Government Transfers to Individuals, Personal Interest Income Disposable Personal Income is Personal Income minus Personal Tax and Nontax Payments.  We are interested in disposable personal income because it is the amount households and noncorporate businesses have available to spend after satisfying their tax obligations to the government.
  • 29. the expenditure method  Sum up all expenditures necessary to purchase the nation’s production i.e. C+I+G+(X-M) Measuring national income
  • 30.
  • 31. £million Consumption expenditure of households and NPISH (C) 893 414 Government final consumption (G) 296 900 Gross capital formation (I) 257 513 Exports of goods and services (X) 368 337 less Imports of goods and services (M) –415 817 Statistical discrepancy 695 Gross domestic product (GDP) (at market prices) 1 401 042 plus Net income from abroad 6 818 Gross national income (GNY) 1 407 860 less Capital consumption (depreciation) –158 143 Net national income (NNY) 1 249 717 Gross National Income and Net National Income
  • 32. The circular flow of national income and expenditure One man’s spending is another man’s income (1) Production (2) Incomes (3) Expenditure
  • 33. The circular flow of national income and expenditure National Product National Income National Expenditure ≡ ≡  Because of the way the calculations are made, the three methods of calculating GDP must yield the same result
  • 34. Gross National Income and Net National Income The expenditure method  GDP (at market price) ≡ C + G + I + X – M Gross national income (GNY) = GDP plus Net Income from abroad Net national income (NNY) = GNY minus Depreciation
  • 35. Given the following data about an economy (in £bn), what is the level of national income? Q Saving 100 Consumption 350 Exports 200 Imports 250 Net tax revenue 120 Government expenditure 140 Investment 130 A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. £470bn B. £480bn C. £570bn D. £670bn E. £820bn
  • 36. Taking account of inflation  If we are to make a sensible comparison of one year’s national income with another, we must take inflation into account. Nominal GDP GDP measured at current prices. Real GDP GDP after allowing for inflation.  GDP measured in constant prices: i.e. in terms of the prices ruling in some base year
  • 37. If, over the past year, nominal GDP has risen by 5% and inflation has been 2%, which of the following is true? Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. Real GDP has increased by 3%. B. Real GDP has increased by 5%. C. Real GDP has decreased by 2%. D. Real GDP has decreased by 3%. E. It is impossible to say what has happened to real GDP.
  • 38. Taking account of population: the use of per-capita measures  GDP is a measure of total national income (output)  GDP per Capita or Per capita income Is output or income per head It’s calculated GDP divided by total population  Useful for comparing living standards of different countries
  • 39. Problems of measuring national output the problem of double counting  Recording intermediate goods twice with the consequence that the GDP is overstated.  Can be avoided by counting only final products or  By measuring the value added at each stage of production Non-marketed items such as ‘do-it-yourself’ and other home-based activities The ‘underground’ economy  consists of illegal and hence undeclared transactions
  • 40. ……Something to Think About……. Are GDP statistics good indicators of welfare?
  • 41. ……..GDP figures Ignore……. human costs of production  i.e Increases in GDP means reduced leisure hours Externalities  i.e. pollution, ozone layer depletion global warming etc. the production of ‘regrettables’ leads to increases in GDP  Faster growth leads to more crimes and more expenditure on security distribution of income production does not equal consumption  Greater part of GDP may be exported or invested
  • 42. The National Economy Short-term Growth and the Business Cycle
  • 43. The distinction between actual and potential growth Having looked at how output is measured and its usefulness as a welfare indicator, the next issue we want to look at is it growth (behavior) over time. Before looking at what causes growth, its good to know the types of growth we usally talk about Actual output is national output that is actually produced. actual growth  the % annual increase in national output actually produced
  • 44. ………Potential output and growth Potential output is the output that could be produced in the economy if there were a full employment of resources. potential economic growth is the speed at which the economy could grow  the % increase in the economy’s capacity to produce Major factors contributing to potential economic growth  An increase in resource i.e. Ghana’s oil discovery  An increase in the efficiency through technological advancement, improved labor skills etc.
  • 45. Output Gap Output Gap is the difference between actual and potential output the gap is positive when actual output exceeds potential output  Implying the economy is operating above normal capacity utilization The gap is negative when the potential output exceeds the actual output  the economy is operating below normal capacity utilisation.  there is probably an increase in unemployment To close a negative the actual growth rate must exceed the potential growth rate
  • 46. Which one of the following is definitely true? Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20%A. Actual growth can never be greater than potential growth. B. Actual output can never be greater than potential output. C. If potential output exceeds actual output there is a negative output gap. D. If potential growth exceeds actual growth there is a positive output gap. E. All of the above.
  • 47. GoodX Good Y O a b c Growth in actual output Growth and the production possibility curve
  • 48. O Growth in potential output GoodX Good Y x I II Growth and the production possibility curve
  • 49. O Growth in actual and potential output GoodX Good Y x I II y Growth and the production possibility curve
  • 50. If there is an increase in potential output there will be a parallel outward shift in the production possibility curve. Q A. B. C. 33% 33%33% A. Always B. Never C. Possibly
  • 51. ........The business cycle.......... Actual growth tends to fluctuate. A country experiences  boom when actual growth is high  Recession when actual growth is negative Business cycle or trade cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of national output round its long-term trend.
  • 53. The phases of the business cycle 1. The upturn or recovery • In this phase, a contracting or stagnant economy begins to recover, and growth in actual output resumes. 2. Expansion • During this phase, there is rapid economic growth: the economy is booming. • A fuller use is made of resources • the gap between actual and potential output narrows.
  • 54. The phases of the business cycle 3. The peaking out  During this phase, growth slows down or even ceases. 4. The slowdown or recession or slump  During this phase, there is little or no growth or even a decline in output.  Increasing slack develops in the economy  In official statistics, a recession is defined as when an economy experiences falling national output (negative growth) for two or more quarters  The length of a business cycle is measured from trough to trough or from peak to peak
  • 55. The length of a business cycle could be measured from: Q A. B. C. D. E. 20% 20% 20%20%20% A. peak to peak. B. peak to trough. C. trough to peak. D. point of most rapid growth to point of most rapid decline (or slowest growth). E. Any of the above
  • 56. The irregularities are due to…… the length of the phases  Some booms (and reccessions) are shortlive, lasting only few months  Others are much longer, lasting over several years the magnitude of the phases  Some booms (and recessions) occur at high rates, say 4% or more per annum  On other occasions growth is much gentler and can even stagnate.
  • 57. Causes of fluctuations in growth  changes in aggregate demand (AD= C+I+G+X-M) A rapid rise in aggregate demand will create shortages. This will tend to stimulate firms to increase output, thus reducing slack in the economy changes in aggregate demand relative to potential output Without an expansion of potential output, rises in actual output would eventually come to an end, as spare capacity is used up. Two determinants of growth in the long run Growth in aggregate demand Growth in potential output