Industrial output in India grew 4.1% in April, higher than the previous month's growth of 2.5%. This was driven by a 5.1% rise in manufacturing. Separately, retail inflation inched up to 5% in May from 4.87% the previous month. Deficient monsoon rains could increase inflationary pressures. While consumption sectors showed signs of recovery, the capital goods sector grew robustly at 11.1%. However, the risk of a second consecutive weak monsoon may slow the pace of consumption growth. Authorities will need to monitor prices closely, and analysts expect interest rate cuts in the second half of the fiscal year.

1. Industrial output
grows 4.1% in Apr
Retail Inflation Inches Up To 5%

2. Contd..
Industrial output growth rose faster than expected to a two-month high in April on
the back of a revival in manufacturing, bringing cheer for policymakers, who are
gearing up to tackle the mounting possibility of patchy monsoon rains.
Data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday showed factory output
rose 4.1% in April, higher than the previous month's 2.5% and triggering talks that a
recovery was firmly taking roots.
Separate data showed retail inflation inched up to 5% in May from the previous
month's 4.87% and will need to be watched in the months ahead as deficient
monsoon rains may heighten the risk of inflationary pressures. The manufacturing
sector rose 5.1% in April compared to 3% in the same month last year, while mining
remained sluggish with 0.6% growth compared to 1.7% expansion in April 2014.
The electrici ty sector, which has notched up robust growth in the previous month,
declined 0.5% in April compared to an expansion of 11.9% in April 2014.

3. Contd..
The capital goods sector, a key gauge of economic activity , rose a robust
11.1% in April com pared to 13.4% expansion in the year earlier period, while
the sluggish consumption sectors showed signs of a revival. The consumer
non-durables sector rose 4.4% in April compared to a decline in the year
earlier period, while the consumer goods sector expanded 3.1% compared to
a decline of 4.8% in April 2014.The consumer durables sector rose 1.3% in
April compared a decline of 7.7% in April 2014.
In the manufacturing sector, 16 out of the 22 industry groups showed
positive growth in April 2015 compared to the corresponding month of the
previous year. The increase in excise duty collection in recent months has
also strengthened the view that arecovery in the manufacturing sector is
underway .

4. Contd..
“Recent months' data suggests that both consumer and investment related sectors
are grinding up, albeit only gradually as indicated by the uptick in consumer and
capital goods IIP sub-indices,“ ratings agency Crisil said in a note.
“However, the looming risk of a second consecutive weak monsoon might mean
that the uptick in consumption would be slow. We expect GDP growth to rise to
7.4% in FY16 with 1.5% growth in agriculture and 6.5% growth in industry ,“ it said.
Economist said that authorities need to keep a close watch on prices and expect
the central bank to cut interest rates in the second half of 2015-16.
“Pressure on prices is expected to persist, owing to the forecast of a weaker
monsoon.This will have a bearing on agricultural commodity prices in the months
to come. Further, global oil prices have recorded some resurgence and threat of
imported inflation by way of an oil price hike remains to be a threat,“ said Madan
Sabnavis, chief economist at Care ratings.

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