Part # 1: Changes in gross domestic product.
Part # 2: Changes in stock market index.
Part # 3: Changes in interest rates.
Part # 4: Changes in food prices.
Part # 5: Changes in commodity prices.
Part # 6: Changes in government debt.
Part # 7: Changes inwork people do.
Part # 8: Changes in wages.
Part # 9: Changes in savings.
Part # 10: Changes in inflation.
21. In the 20th century, average commodity prices declined almost 50%
ttp://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Energy_Resources_Materials/Resource_revolution p. 22.
22. In the first decade of the 21st century, commodity prices increased sharply
http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Energy_Resources_Materials/Resource_revolution p. 30.
23. The oil price is partly determined by actual supply and demand, and partly by
expectation.
Demand for energy is closely related to economic activity. It also spikes in the
winter in the northern hemisphere, and during summers in countries
which use air conditioning. Supply can be affected by weather (which prevents
tankers loading) and by geopolitical upsets.
If producers think the price is staying high, they invest, which after a lag boosts
supply. Similarly, low prices lead to an investment drought. OPEC’s decisions shape
expectations: if it curbs supply sharply, it can send prices spiking. Saudi Arabia
produces nearly 10m barrels a day - a third of the OPEC total.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4
33. Savings in % of household disposable income
http://youtu.be/OugorkKkxXM
Country Savings rate
China 50%
Japan 25%
Europe 20%
USA -0.6%
34. As countries grow wealthier, their household saving rates decline
Source
Development from 1960 to 2008.
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/files/article/PDF/EMC_decathlon.pdf p. 160.