Drought may influence conflict, but the relationship depends on other factors. Some studies found climatic variables like drought did not significantly impact conflict in Africa, while others found conflicts were twice as likely during El Nino years, which cause drought in the tropics. A regression analysis found moderate drought had a significant impact on conflict onset, but did not analyze more severe droughts. The results were not entirely conclusive, and conflicts must be analyzed individually based on regional factors, as droughts alone do not determine conflict.

1. Does the existence of drought
influence the frequency of conflict
events?
Theory:
Drought causes resource scarcity,
leading humans to more and more
extreme methods for sustenance.
Tim Maher

2. Literature results: it depends
Several Studies focusing on Africa have determined
that climatic variables are not significant in influencing
the onset of conflict events.
• Security lit concludes that other variables are more significant (conflict
history, percent of population that is powerless, etc.,)
Others looking at a global scale have determined that
conflicts are twice as likely to occur in tropics during El
Nino years rather than La Nina years.
El Nino leads to dry, drought-prone conditions in the tropics.
• What about directly including droughts in regression?

3. Model and Data
robust logit analysis:
onset = civil war outbreak = the first year of recorded battles in wars that generated at
least 25 deaths per year. This variable was generated from the Uppsala Conflict
Data Program/Peace Research Institute in Oslo (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict
Dataset.
pcw= post-Cold War dummy variable = coded 1 for years 1990 and later.
wheatchnglag = change in average annual wheat price, lagged one year. This accounts
for non-regionally located droughts. Data was gathered from the USDA.
cumint = Intensity of conflict, taking into account conflict history. Coded 1 if conflict,
since onset, has exceeded 1000 battle-related deaths, else 0.
gdppc = GDP per capita, data gathered via USDA ERS Macroeconomic dataset.
pwrlpop = percent of population excluded from access to national power. variable
generated by Ethnic Power Relations dataset.
moderate = existence of moderate drought, using historical PDSI data from UCAR.

4. Results:
robust logit - Prob of F-Stat: 0.0000
onset R^2: 0.1667
Variable Coefficient P-Value
Colonial
Post Cold War .5263642 0.019 vacuum
Lagged Change in Wheat -.5683508 0.311
Historical Conflict? -2.100427 0.000 Memory?
GDPpc -.0000908 0.001 Sustenance
satisfied?
Powerless Pop .4521971 0.390
Moderate Drought .4691432 0.041 Other
droughts?
Constant -.4729777 0.025

5. Results - conclusive?
No!
If moderate is
significant:
• severe? -> NO
• extreme? -> NO
Why?

6. Policy Implications
Caution: modern data collection/processing is only just now
beginning to understand the causes of conflicts.
In some cases, droughts may be considered influential.
• future droughts likely to exceed any droughts humans
have experienced thus far
Must analyze conflicts on case by case basis!
• Some common factors, but all conflicts are unique
• Regional analysis can assist with this - I focused on
global