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Eco Footprint and ClimateShift 2016
- 1. How big is your footprint and does it shift the Climate? ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
- 2. WORST OF TIMES ; BEST OF TIMES
- 3. WHAT IS AN ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT?
- 4. WHAT IS AN ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT?
- 5. MEASURES IMPACT OF HUMAN LIFE
- 6. • What we Got • What we Want COMPARES
- 7. OUR PLANET 36.3; 71% 14.7; 29% Globe = 51 billion ha Ocean Land
- 8. IT’S CAPACITY Fishing Ground Fresh Water Cropland Grazing Land Forest Built-up & Roads Desert Semi-arid Grass Wasteland Ice Caps Open Ocean Earth's Productivity = 11.9 billion ha (2007)
- 9. THE METHOD • 12 billion ha • = 1.73 global ha per person • 7 billion people 2012 data; GFN, 2016
- 10. OUR DEMANDS
- 12. 64% DEFICIT
- 14. EXPANDING DEFICIT '73 -'75 '80-‘82 '90-‘91 '01 '07-‘09
- 15. • Luxembourg = 15.8 ??? • Aruba = 11.9 • Qatar = 10.8 • Australia = 9.3 • USA = 8.2 • Canada = 8.2 • Kuwait = 8.1 • UAE = 8.1 (2011 Data) • Singapore = 8.0 • Trinidad & Tobago = 7.9 MORE THAN 4X FAIR SHARE = 1.73 GHA 2012 Data; GFN 2016
- 16. • Bahrain = 7.5 • Oman = 7.5 • Belgium = 7.4 • Sweden = 7.3 • Estonia = 6.9 • Bahamas = 6.8 • Latvia = 6.3 • Austria = 6.1 • Mongolia = 6.1 • Finland = 5.9 AROUND 4X FAIR SHARE = 1.73 GHA 2012 Data; GFN 2016
- 17. • Afghanistan = 0.8 • Burundi = 0.8 • D.R. Congo = 0.8 • Malawi = 0.8 • Bangladesh = 0.7 • Haiti = 0.6 • Timor-Leste = 0.5 • Eritrea = 0.4 LESS THAN 1/2 FAIR SHARE = 1.73 GHA 2012 Data; GFN 2016
- 18. • Comoros = 1.0 • Ethiopia = 1.0 • Gambia = 1.0 • Kenya = 1.0 • Zambia = 1.0 • Angola = 0.9 • Rwanda = 0.9 • Tajikistan = 0.9 • Mozambique = 0.9 JUST OVER ½ FAIR SHARE = 1.73 GHA 2012 Data; GFN 2016
- 19. • Israel = 6.2 • Palestine = 0.7 (2007 Data) • Russia = 5.7 • Ukraine = 2.8 • Saudi Arabia = 5.6 • Yemen = 1.0 • Iraq = 1.9 • Syria = 1.5 • Cameroon = 1.2 • Chad = 1.5 • Niger = 1.6 • Nigeria = 1.2 • India = 1.2 • Pakistan = 0.8 FOOTPRINT OF CONFLICT Conflict Regions Conflict Zones
- 20. DARE WE COMPARE? Afghan Family Canadian Family
- 22. • Luxembourg: 80 + 7 = 87% • Aruba: 80 + 9 = 89% (2011 Data) • Qatar: 89 + 6 = 95% • Australia: 53 + 29 = 82% • USA: 72 + 13 = 85% • Canada: 61 + 18 = 79% • Kuwait: 85 + 7 = 92% • UAE: 80 + 10 = 90% (2011 Data) • Singapore: 74 + 9 = 83% • Trinidad & Tobago: 87 + 6 = 93% FOOTPRINT OF A SHIFTING CLIMATE World: carbon + crops; 60 + 20 = 80% Rich Nations: carbon + cropland
- 23. OUR FOOTPRINT COMES FROM How we use energy How we eat
- 24. WHAT IS THE CLIMATE SHIFT? • Like a blanket: • https://www.facebook.com/earth/videos/1647869398820163/ • Arctic Ice loss • https://twitter.com/ahaveland/status/650730307302375424
- 25. WHAT IS THE RESULT?
- 26. CHANCE TO AVOID ABYSS TOO LATE VERY LATE VERY SHORT GUY MACPHERSON DAVID SUZUKI KEVIN ANDERSON
- 27. POPE FRANCIS : URGENT CHALLENGE INTEGRAL ECOLOGY
- 28. DALAI LAMA: UNIVERSAL RESPONSIBILITY
- 29. KATHARINE HAYHOE: FEAR VS LOVE • Climate Evangelist • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1eGJLqxxKQ
- 30. ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT CALCULATOR • http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/calculators/
Editor's Notes
- “Measures how fast we consume resources and generate waste, compared to how fast nature can absorb our waste and generate new resources.” Global Footprint Network “The global Ecological Footprint is the area of productive biosphere required to maintain the material throughput of the human economy, under current management and production practices” (WWF, 2004).
- “Ecological footprint analysis is an accounting tool that enables us to estimate the resource consumption and waste assimilation requirements of a defined human population or economy in terms of a corresponding productive land area.” p.9 Wackernagel, Mathis and William Rees. 1996. Our Ecological Footprint. New Society Publishers. Gabriola Island, British Columbia. “The global Ecological Footprint is the area of productive biosphere required to maintain the material throughput of the human economy, under current management and production practices” (WWF, 2004).
- The numbers are not a static, and will change with advancements or regressions in technology, increases or decreases in human population, and expansions or declines in ecosystem productivity. They are driven by subjective factors such as people’s perception of satisfaction with their lives, the understanding of their own happiness, and the intentions underlying their hopes, fears, anxieties, and aspirations. These greatly influence the desire for wealth, with its attendant consumption of resources and accumulation of waste. Source: Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011
- In short, it contrasts what the earth has to offer vs what we try to take from it.
- The planet is approximately 51 billion ha is size. 36,300,000 ha are ocean; 14, 700,000 ha are land. Graph: Incite Planning Data: World Wildlife Fund 1999 Hectare = 100m x 100m 100m = corner of Coldwater Street & Peter Street down Coldwater past United Church, Carson Funeral Home, the apartment building to middle of the parking lot entrance of the Baptist Church 100m = corner of Coldwater Street & Peter Street up Peter to the far edge of the parking lot entrance of the apartment next to 70 Peter Street
- Graph: Incite Planning Data: Global Footprint Network 2010 But not all of this surface area is biologically productive. While the rest plays indirect roles, only 22% of it directly supports human life through fresh water and ocean fisheries, cropland for fibre, grains, fruits and vegetables, grazing land for meat, milk and wool, forest for wood, pulp & paper, and the built-up land that provides the urban areas, roads, and infrastructure of human habitat. Source: Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011
- We take this productive area and divide it by the world’s population to come up with the “Fair Share” of the earth’s surface available to each person. (Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011) In 2012, there were was more than 12 billion biologically productive hectares and just over 7 billion people. This amounted to 1.73 global hectares per person (gha/person). This represents the even distribution of the earth’s supply of biologically productive land (Bio-capacity). A Global Hectare is a measure of average productivity because, for example, a ha of wheat ground in Canada is not as productive (3MT/ha) as wheat ground in Zambia (7MT/ha). (USDA in index mundi, 2015). A global hectare is a biologically productive hectare with world average productivity. Because each unit of space harbours a different portion of the global regenerative capacity, each unit is counted proportional to its global bio-capacity share. For this reason, hectares are adjusted proportionally to their productivity and are expressed in global hectares. (Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition)
- By contrast, the Ecological Footprint is the demand we place on that bio-capacity. It is calculated in a similar way, with one exception. Source: Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011
- It includes the “phantom land” of past bio-capacity; namely the buried plants and animals from previous eras that we are digging up as and using as fossil fuels. The combustion of fossil fuel releases carbon from past carbon cycles and adds it to the present carbon cycle. In order to account for the burden ancient carbon is placing on current productivity, the amount of land needed to sequester green house gases is incorporated into the Footprint calculation. Source: Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011
- In 2012, this amounted to 2.84 gha/person; representing an overshoot of 64%. Most of this deficit comes from energy use. Source: (Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition)
- Deficits such as this are drawing down the principle of the global “bank account” faster than we can replace it (“interest” has not been accrued since 1978). Source: Biology Ecology Chapters 2-5. Ecology Topics Introduction to Ecology. Introduction to Ecology Abiotic & Biotic factors of an Ecosystem. Abiotic & Biotic factors. [http://slideplayer.com/slide/6950351/] 15 April 2016
- Since the data collection project began, the Ecological Footprint has expanded, only taking time out for economic recessions. I have been inputting results from reports starting in 2002. Less than 0% means living within the resources that one planet can renew each year. 1978 was last year we lived within those limits. Date of “One Planet” limit moves with the calculation of each new data set, but 1978 is based on the data set for that year. (Incite Planning) Footprint calculations are regularly updated. In 2011 I did a report using 2007 data (ecological demand 2.70 gha/person; global supply 1.79 gha/person). The overshoot was estimated to be at least 51%. Actual 2011 data says its 54%. If the conditions of 2007 stayed the same, but the projected world population of ten years was used, the deficit expands to 82%. The overwhelming issue will be energy, and the cumulative destructive effects of fossil fuel use. (Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011)
- This deficit has grown in the intervening years because affluent countries live far above their fair share of the earth’s resources. Odd-ball numbers: Montserrat = 7.8 ??? According to the 2012 data (Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition), we in Canada used 8.2 gha/person; four & ¾ times beyond the 1.73 gha/person available to the average human. 2007 data: We in Canada used 7.0 gha/person; four times beyond the 1.79 gha/person available to the average human. (Town of Minto Integrated Sustainability Community Plan, March 2011 Jason Kenny accused David Suzuki of being anti-immigrant probably on this point; David: Canada is “Full”; Jason: Canada “built by immigrants” real issue resources use, fake issue immigration. Jason Kenney calls David Suzuki ‘xenophobic’ over magazine quotes; Postmedia News Published: July 11, 2013, 5:38 pm; By Derek Abma Jason Kenney: David Suzuki's Immigration Views 'Toxic And Irresponsible‘; The Huffington Post Canada | By Ryan Maloney; Posted: 07/11/2013 12:46 pm EDT Updated: 07/11/2013 1:02 pm EDT Cartoon: http://www.seppo.net/cartoons/displayimage.php?pid=765
- This deficit has grown in the intervening years because affluent countries live far above their fair share of the earth’s resources. According to the 2012 data (Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition), close to 4X fair share European or oil-rich (6.92)
- This allows those not living in affluent counties to live below their fair share. The hectares used by people in the following places are at least half of the global average: 2007 data: Afghanistan at 0.6, Bangladesh at 0.6, Burundi at 0.9, D.R. Congo at 0.8, Eritrea at 0.9, Haiti at 0.7, India at 0.9, Malawi at 0.7, Mozambique at 0.8, Palestine at 0.7, Pakistan at 0.8, Timor-Leste at 0.4, Yemen at 0.9, and Zambia at 0.9.
- ½ fair share mostly African (1.73);
- Conflict areas have interesting ecological footprints: Middle-east invasion and the Caliphate; Boko Haram; Asian sub-continent; mid-east since 1947; former USSR; Arabian peninsula
- Ecological footprint 1:10 Afghanistan =0.8 Canada = 8.2 Afghan War Causalities 1000:1 Afghanistan total lost = 153,650 – 232,200 Canada total lost =164 War in Afghanistan 2001-2014 (Wikipedia): Afghanistan lost 21,950 (afghan security forces), 200 (Northern Alliance), 25,500–40,500 (Insurgency); 106,000–170,000 civilians Canada lost 159 soldiers; 5 civilians Total Fertility Rate = children born/woman: Afghanistan: 5.5, 2011; 5.3, 2012; 5.1, 2013 - The World Bank. 5.43, 2014 – Index Mundi. 5.33, 2015 – CIA the World Fact Book. Canada: 1.61, 2011; 1.61 2012 – Statistics Canada. 1.59, 2014 – Index Mundi. Pictures: -An Afghan family waits for transport home at the Gazergah Transit Distribution Centre in Herat. © UNHCR/R.Ek Afghan returnees surge past 200,000 mark, News Stories, 10 April 2002 - Beverley and Chris Hughes with children CJ and Cate at their home near Toronto, Canada. Canadian family finds World War I letter from a South Australian girl, Brad Crouch, Sunday Mail (South Australia), June 16, 2012 10:00PM
- Graph: © 2015 Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition. Licensed and provided solely for non-commercial and informational purposes. For commercial license contact data@footprintnetwork.org Note: 2012 data point seems wrong; should be higher Since the data collection project began, the Ecological Footprint has expanded, only taking time out for economic recessions. Most of the this increase has been largely driven by demand for fossil energy and cropland: Small increase in built-up land , but it drives all other demand Grazing land has changed little despite increasing demand for meat; probably due to the fact that grain is fed to livestock Carbon “land” has expanded immensely; much of it due to demand of urban & SUB-urban areas and cropland #1 cause of climate change – Buildings: 1/3 energy use; 1/3 CO2 #2 cause of climate change – Cows: beef production and consumption #3 cause of climate change - Transportation Jeremy Rifkin, 2009 Rotterdam Global Urban Summit
- You might be surprised to discover that while we all need to make lifestyle changes, saving the planet doesn't have to mean giving up the things you love. Source: http://wwf.panda.org/how_you_can_help/live_green/
- Source: “Arctic Death Spiral” Andy Lee Robinson @ahaveland 2016
- Guy MacPherson: Too Late Professor Emeritus of Natural Resources and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona Author of blog: Nature Bats Last Climate change kills 5 million people/year David Suzuki: Very Late Geneticist, Broadcaster, Environmental Advocate http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/david-suzuki-reflects-on-his-80-years-1.3495067 Kevin Anderson Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; holds a joint chair in Energy and Climate Change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester and School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia United Nations Climate Change Conference Conference of Parties 21, 2015 Paris Climate conference 32 page document: Very strong agreement by all worlds leaders Strong message to skeptics Rest is legal fluff: Aviation and shipping industries not in the agreement; anticipated to grow 2-3X and find solution in future No mention of fossil fuels or de-carbonising of economy in agreement Assumes we will rely on carbon removal in the future & therefore no need to cutback emissions now (geo-engineering: use jets to spew sulphur into atmosphere; use ships to spray seawater into atmosphere; BECS, grow plants on massive scale, pelletize them, burn in power generator stations, collect carbon and store under ground for millennia Assume no feedback mechanisms, e.g., methane release from permafrost No carbon budgets for staying under 2o C in agreement: Must keep 85-90% of current carbon reserves in the ground to meet this Research carbon capture & storage, but do it assuming they will fail; they may not work at scale and may be too late Need $10 in reducing emission for every $1 in geo-engineering Still subsidising fossil fuel industries at 5.3 trillion annually Small chance of success; but still some hope Katharine Hayhoe: Still hope Causes $5 billion crop loss/year since 1980
- Karen O’Brien, Ph.D. integral-ist who worked on Pope’s encyclical on Climate Change; “Integral Ecology” used in first sentence of Point 11; chapter 4- Integral Ecology Professor of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, Norway Key note speaker at The Fourth International Integral Theory Conference, 16-19 July 2015: Integral in Action: Climate Change and Transformation to Sustainability Karen O’Brien has been working on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation research for more than 25 years. In the 2007 she shared in the Nobel Peace Prize award to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. She is interested in how transdisciplinary and integral approaches to global change research can contribute to a better understanding of how societies both create and respond to change, and in particular how beliefs, values, and worldviews influence human responses to climate change and transformations to sustainability. Cartoon: Dave Granlund; www.davegranlund.com
- Universal responsibility http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/d/dalailama139179.html
- Katharine Hayhoe: Canadian climate change scientist Father was the science co-ordinator for the Toronto District School Board Associate Professor of Political Science at Texas Tech University & Director of school’s Climate Centre Called best Climate Change communicator of this generation Time magazine listed her as one of the 100 most influential people of 2014 Child of missionaries and wife of evangelical pastor Andrew Farley; one child Gets average of one piece of hate-mail per day (mostly, unfortunately, from the faith community) http://www.cbc.ca/radio/tapestry/tapestry-katharine-hayhoe-1.3446633 [CBC Tapestry Sunday 14 February 2016]