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The Old GuyThe Old Guy
SpeechSpeech
The End of the Mobile App Cycle: The 30-The End of the Mobile App Cycle: The 30-
Year ViewYear View
@rafer@rafer
@technicolorVC@technicolorVC
23 June 201523 June 2015
Moved to SFMoved to SF
before thebefore the
BrowserBrowser
Product Adoption CycleProduct Adoption Cycle
Switching Cycles SucksSwitching Cycles Sucks
Growth Cycles
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Today
Next! 2017 - ?
Mobile apps
Always-on 2003 - 2008
Dial-up 1993 - 2000
PCs 1982 - 1990
2010 - 2015
9/11 App
Store
NetscapeMacintosh
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Today
Next! 2017 - ?
Mobile apps
Always-on 2003 - 2008
Dial-up 1993 - 2000
PCs 1982 - 1990
2010 - 2015
9/11 App
Store
NetscapeMacintosh
Invest
Profit
Growth Cycle Behavior
OpenOpen
ClosedClosed
InvestInvestProfitProfit
Next Cycle Ecologies
@rafer@rafer
@technicolorVC@technicolorVC
@rafer@rafer
@technicolorVC@technicolorVC

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Editor's Notes

  1. 1992 #English-centric #Tech product childhood
  2. Posted on my blog Sunday