Carbon emissions from electric power generation are skyrocketing, including and especially in countries that have received praise for their support of renewable energy. Meanwhile, countries with very low carbon emissions from power generation are generally ignored in policy circles and in the media. But, as energy and environment expert Steve Aplin demonstrates, these low-carbon countries have achieved spectacular environmental success without hurting their economies. Aplin argues that these low-carbon countries should be the model for all developing countries that are expanding their power generation infrastructure.

1. Electricity generation
infrastructure planning in the
Age of Climate Change
PRESENTATION BY STEPHEN E. APLIN, THE HDP GROUP INC.

2. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
The “Carbon Imperative” of new
electric power generation
 Public concern over anthropogenic climate change is growing.
 Public increasing tying carbon with climate change.
 Public increasingly tying carbon with violent storms.
 Electricity system planners must heed public concern over climate
change
 Electricity must be low­ or zero­carbon—and as close to zero as
possible.
 Paramount guiding principle in electric power infrastructure must be
ALCARA—As Low­Carbon As Reasonably Achievable.
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3. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
The paramount criteria of
electricity generation in the Age of
Climate Change
 ALCARA—As Low­Carbon As Reasonably Achievable.
 Electricity must be low carbon.
 Electricity must be cheap.
 AND reliable.
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4. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Introducing the Electricity Carbon­
Emission and Retail Price (ECERP)
Matrix
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I. High carbon, cheap II. High carbon,
expensive
IV. Low carbon, cheap III. Low carbon,
expensive
Price
CO2intensity

5. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
ECERP Matrix situates electricity
from a jurisdiction, allows
immediate comparison with other
jurisdictions
 The basic unit of grid electricity is the kilowatt­hour (kWh).
 What is the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of one kWh from a given
grid?
 ... and what price does the customer have to pay for that kWh?
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6. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Paramount criteria in practice: aim
is to be in Quadrant IV of the
ECERP Matrix
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7. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Being in Quadrant IV ensures
societal goals are met
 Low­carbon electricity ensures public concern is assuaged.
 Low­carbon electricity simply good for environment.
 Cheap electricity ensures affordability, promotes the economic and
societal goals of jurisdiction.
 Low­carbon, cheap electricity makes large­scale electrification of
currently fossil­powered activities—transportation, industry, space
heating—feasible.
 This will ensure a Quantum Leap in CO2 emission reductions.
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8. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
How do you get into Quadrant IV?
 See which jurisdictions are in Quadrant IV now.
 See which jurisdictions are NOT in Quadrant IV.
 Do what Quadrant IV jurisdictions are doing.
 DON’T do what Quadrant II jurisdictions are doing.
 Quadrant II is the worst Quadrant to be in: power is dirty and
expensive.
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9. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
The ECERP Matrix in the real
world (2010): who was in Quadrant
IV? Quadrant II?
 Let’s see.
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10. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
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11. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Quadrant IV jurisdictions in 2010
 Finland
 France
 Switzerland
 Sweden
 Ontario
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12. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Quadrant II jurisdictions in 2010
 Germany
 Denmark
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13. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
What do Quadrant IV jurisdictions
have in common?
 Significant amounts of nuclear power feeding their grids.
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14. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
What do Quadrant II jurisdictions
have in common?
 National emphasis on supporting “renewable” energy: mostly wind
and solar.
 Small or declining amounts of nuclear.
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15. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
Recap: How do you get into
Quadrant IV of the ECERP Matrix?
 See which jurisdictions are in Quadrant IV
 See which jurisdictions are NOT in Quadrant IV
 Do what Quadrant IV jurisdictions are doing
 DON’T do what Quadrant II jurisdictions are doing
Quadrant II is the worst Quadrant to be in: power is dirty and
expensive
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16. Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change
The ECERP Matrix
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