Uploaded byDavid Wood
DW_ZDayLondon2013
The document discusses themes around sustainability, technological impact, and future predictions from a humanity+ and singularity perspective. It emphasizes the accelerated changes in technology, the necessity of proactive actions to shape future scenarios, and highlights the importance of recognizing both the potential benefits and threats posed by emerging technologies. Key concepts include convergence, the singularity, and the vision for humanity's evolution through radical enhancement.
DW_ZDayLondon2013
- 1. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom: DW_ZDayLondon2013 A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on hopes for human sustainability and progress David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Z-Day London 2013 1
- 2. Five themes 1. Plansfor better, more sustainable social structures need to pay attention to factors causing large change – Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems” 2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating – With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative 3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”) – But we can (and must) learn to do it better 4. There are many possible near-future scenarios – Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference 5. Key concepts to watch out for… Z-Day London 2013 2
- 3. It’s hard topredict the future Z-Day London 2013 Source: Newsweek, January 2011 3
- 4. The conceptual languageof futurists • Chinese? • Accelerating change – Driven by positive feedback circles • Convergence – When accelerating changes collide • Singularity – Where things could be headed, sooner than expected • Humanity+ – A philosophy to make sense of all the above Z-Day London 2013 4
- 5. It’s hard topredict the future Z-Day London 2013 Source: Newsweek, January 2011 5
- 6. Newsweek birth and(?)rebirth Z-Day London 2013 http://adage.com/article/the-media-guy/print-newsweek-covers/238918/ 6
- 7. Newspaper ad revenue ? Z-Day London 2013 http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 7
- 8. Collapse of newspaperad revenue Z-Day London 2013 http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 8
- 9. A world ofconverging technology Are impacted & transformed Z-Day London 2013 9
- 10. Collisions and collapses Z-Day London 2013 http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816 10
- 11. Collisions and collapses Z-Day London 2013 http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/ 11
- 12. A world ofconverging technology Are impacted & transformed Z-Day London 2013 14
- 13. A world ofconverging technology Are impacted & enhanced Z-Day London 2013 15
- 14. A world ofconverging technology Are impacted & transformed ? Are impacted & enhanced Z-Day London 2013 16
- 15. Convergence in thelast decade 2000-2010-… “Smartphones for all” • Increasingly smart mobile phones • More CPU, more data, more network bandwidth • Used by more and more people, worldwide • Converging & delivering more and more utility • Colour, Cameras, Rich Messaging, Browsing, Social Networks, Games, Maps, Augmented Reality, Buying & Selling • Generating more and more business • And disrupting more and more business (winners and losers) Z-Day London 2013 17
- 16. Convergence in thisdecade 2000-2010-… 2000-2010-… “Smartphones for all” “Smartphones for all” 2011-2015... “Smartphone technology everywhere” A disruptive new wave of convergence of embedded software Z-Day London 2013 18
- 17. Information in ourglasses Z-Day London 2013 www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html 19
- 18. Golden-i voice-controlled HeadsetComputer “The Golden-i Operating System (Gi-OS) provides a user friendly interface and a complete set of core applications. Available now on selected Golden-i headsets, revolutionizing the way people work through hands-free technology. Gi-OS includes a new high performance hardware accelerated graphics subsystem, built on an OpenGL that includes support for transparencies and transition animations to create a professional look and feel for your applications.” http://www.ikanosconsulting.com/home/ Z-Day London 2013 James Bond-esque video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBwRX68fIY 20
- 19. Smartphone technology embeddedeverywhere “Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones” Wearable computers: Tablets / Slates uniforms, watches, spectacles Consumer electronics: Connected homes: cameras, eReaders, toys... Smart TVs, Heating, Security Smart, connected cars Smart meters and grids In Vehicle Infotainment (IVI) Industrial automation Smart digital signs (smart connected robots) Smart micro-bots Mobile medical devices (and nano-bots…) Your suggestions here! Z-Day London 2013 21
- 20. Kindle books vs.physical books E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Z-Day London 2013 www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch 22
- 21. Accelerating progress • Adesktop PC purchased in 1989 came equipped with a 20 megabyte hard disk • A USB external hard disk purchased in 2009, for roughly the same amount of money (taking account of inflation), was 2 terabytes in size • That’s an increase of 100,000 times over 20 years • Broadly equivalent to hard disks doubling in size, without the price increasing, every 14.5 months over that 20 year period • Exponential growth – example of Moore’s Law Z-Day London 2013 23
- 22. (Gordon) Moore’s Law:1965 The number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years (Doubling period originally stated as every one year) Z-Day London 2013 www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/ 24
- 23. Improvement in energyefficiency of computing Computations per kWh, 1940-2010 10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years: 18 months average doubling Source: Johnathan Koomey, Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012 Z-Day London 2013 25
- 24. The next fiveyears (2013-2018)? x 21/3 x2 x2 x2 18 months 18 months 18 months +6 Technology x 10 Faster… Cheaper… Smaller… Z-Day London 2013 26
- 25. Improvement in wirelessnetworks Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895 Z-Day London 2013 www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law 27
- 26. Positive feedback cycles Computers Design, Manufacturing Z-Day London 2013 28
- 27. Positive feedback cycles Software Software tools (debuggers, compilers…) Z-Day London 2013 29
- 28. Positive feedback cycles Technology Education Z-Day London 2013 30
- 29. Positive feedback cycles Technology Networks People Education Z-Day London 2013 31
- 30. Positive feedback cycles Technology Platform Developers Consumers Marketing Z-Day London 2013 32
- 31. Positive feedback cycles Technology Entrepreneurs Citizens Politics Z-Day London 2013 33
- 32. Example of progressby combination • Over 800 million unique users visit YouTube each month • Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month • 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute • 70% of YouTube traffic comes from outside the US • In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views – or around 140 views for every person on Earth • Technologies enabling You Tube explosion – Proliferation of Internet users – Fast Internet access – Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones) – Cheap storage and fast processing www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics Z-Day London 2013 Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 34
- 33. Example of progressby combination • Technologies enabling Kindle explosion – Cheap storage + Innovative business model – Low energy screens – High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution – Huge catalog of books available to purchase Z-Day London 2013 Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 35
- 34. Basis for radicallyimproving healthcare “Technology super-convergence” • Miniature sensors • Ubiquitous smartphones • Imaging & scanning • Communications facilities • 3D manufacturing • Next generation social • Electronic medical networks records • Huge computing power • Synthetic biology • Expert decision systems • Personalised genomics • Online medical training Z-Day London 2013 http://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/ – Eric Topol MD 36
- 35. Technology NBIC mega-convergence Atoms Genes Nano- Bio- Tech Tech S^ ? Cogno- ICT Tech Neurons Bits Z-Day London 2013 http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC_report.pdf 38
- 36. The Singularity (S^) •We can no longer predict what happens next • Computers / robots more intelligent than humans • More generally intelligent than humans • They can create even better computers / robots • => Rapid, recursive, self-improvement cycle… • Super-intelligent systems could solve many existing deep human problems (disease, death, economics…) • But first we have to get there… (perhaps 15-30 years) • Surviving the next 15-30 years will be ultra-critical Z-Day London 2013 39
- 37. The Singularity Race Negative Positive Singularity Singularity Z-Day London 2013 40
- 38. Winning the SingularityRace Negative Positive Singularity Singularity Embrace enhancing humanity Turn H into H+ Z-Day London 2013 41
- 39. The Humanity+ vision • Humanity is on the brink of a momentous leap forwards in evolution – If we are wise and strong, we can make that leap • This evolutionary transformation takes advantage of rapidly improving technology – Technology that arises from positive virtuous cycles and unprecedented interdisciplinary convergence – This technology will grant us awesome powers: the power to capture ample energy from the Sun, the atom, and beyond; the power to synthesise new materials to rejuvenate our environment and fuel our societies; the power to realise an unparalleled abundance of health, security, vigour, vitality, creativity, knowledge, and experience Z-Day London 2013 http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 42
- 40. The Humanity+ vision(continued) • But technology is a two-edged sword – Alongside the potential for transcendent improvement lies the potential for existential destruction – We face fearsome perils of environmental catastrophe, unstoppable new plagues and pathogens, rampant unemployment and alienation, the collapse of world financial markets, pervasive systems of unresponsive computers and moronically intelligent robots that act in frustration to human desires, horrific new weaponry that could easily fall into the wrong hands and precipitate Armageddon, and intensive mechanisms for draconian surveillance and thought control • Continuing the status quo is not an option – Any quest for sustainability of current lifestyles is a delusion. We cannot stay still, and we cannot retreat. The only way to survive is radical enhancement – moving from Humanity to Humanity+ Z-Day London 2013 http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 43
- 41. 10 dramatic changesin 5-10 yrs 1. Smartphone technology everywhere 2. Personalised digital medicine; synthetic organs… 3. Smart drugs – boost concentration, memory 4. 3D printers and 3D scanners – reduction of waste 5. Growth of connected intelligent systems (AIs) (IoT) 6. Driverless cars 7. Robots increasingly displace humans from workforce 8. Large numbers of intelligent, diligent unemployed 9. Need new model of social justice to cope – Quickly! 10. Political parties need to transform to remain relevant Z-Day London 2013 44
- 42. Recap: Five themes 1.Plans for better, more sustainable social structures need to pay attention to factors causing large change – Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems” 2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating – With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative 3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”) – But we can (and must) learn to do it better 4. There are many possible near-future scenarios – Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference 5. Key concepts to watch out for – Accelerating change, convergence, Singularity, Humanity+ Z-Day London 2013 45
- 43. Recommended further reading http://www.singularityweblog.com/ http://hplusmagazine.com/ http://transhumanity.net/ Z-Day London 2013 46
- 44. Recommended further reading MarkStevenson Joel Garreau James Hughes Z-Day London 2013 47
- 45. Recommended further reading Z-Day London 2013 48
- 46. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom: DW_ZDayLondon2013 A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on hopes for human sustainability and progress David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Z-Day London 2013 49