This thesis examined Bangladesh's flood early warning system and community response capacity in northern Bangladesh. It analyzed the existing flood forecasting technologies including 3-5 day, 10 day, and seasonal forecasts. Through community consultations and surveys, it assessed awareness of forecasts, dissemination methods, and how forecasts inform decisions on livelihoods, shelter, and preparedness. It found forecasts are useful but interpretation and guidance could be improved. It concluded forecast accuracy decreases with lead time and recommended continued system improvements, user training, and strengthening collaboration between forecasting and disaster management agencies.

1. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Flood Early Warning System
And Community-Based Response
in Northern Bangladesh
(Thesis submitted to the Department of Geography and
Environment, University of Dhaka
In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MS in
Disaster Management)
Supervisor:
Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan
(Scientist, SAARC Meteorological Research
Centre)
MS in Disaster Management
Department of Geography and Environment
University of Dhaka
Presented by: Md. Shafiqur Rahman
Roll No: 0304, , 3rd Batch
Master of Science in Disaster Management
University of Dhaka
20 March 2015

2. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION
1. Background
2. Objective
3. Methodology
4. Major findings and analysis
5. Conclusions
6. Recommendations
7. Acknowledgements

3. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
1. Flood is a regular phenomenon of Bangladesh
2. Flood forecasting and warning system and timely responding to
warning is important to reduce the adverse effect of flood
3. Reliable information, dissemination system and people’s capacity is
vital to respond to floods
4. The forecast on different time scale is also important to preparedness
and response
5. With this respect, the study focused to identify the existing system
especially its use by community and what needs to do further as way
forward to strengthen the capacity of the institutions and community to
reduce the adverse impacts of flood
6. The study did not attempt to capture solid technical issues - rather it
focuses to see what already in place and how community is responding
7. So, considering the community capacity and needs along with
existing system, the study is justified to see how things are going and to
see a way forward
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

4. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
The main objective of the research is to analyze the existing
flood forecasting and warning system in Bangladesh and
community understandings of the forecasting system and
capacity to respond to monsoon floods, especially Jamuna
and Brahmmaputra River Basin.
1.To identify the existing flood forecasting system and its development
over time
2. To analyze the awareness level of community and local Union Disaster
Management Committee
3.To identify and analyze the forecast dissemination system and response
capacity including practice
4. To identify what can be done further focusing on community actions
OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
Specific objectives

5. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
The present study focuses on the river flood forecasting system
and its use at community level.
- Primarily qualitative except where secondary data was
available.
- Community consultation
- Physical observation
- Group discussion, and
- Questionnaire survey
Note: Medium range (10 days) forecast emphasized – as more
helpful comparing to 3-5 days forecast
Methodology of the study

6. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
RATIONALE:
- River flood is a regular phenomenon of the northern char areas
- Causes either more or less damages to crops and properties
- Functional Early Warning system in place is a requirement
Assumptions: Effective early warning system helps people in
better preparation and response resulting reducing effect of
disaster
Area:
- Kurigram district: Hatia, Chilmari and Mogolbasa
- Sirajganj district: Maijbari union
SELECTION OF STUDY AREA

7. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
FORECASTING
TECHNOLOGY
 Deterministic
Forecast with 3-5 days
lead time
 Medium Range (10
Day) Probabilistic
flood forecast
 Flash Flood Advisory
 Long range to
Seasonal Outlook (25
days – 90 days (was
under experiment)
Major Findings and Analysis of the study

8. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Flash Flood Advisory

9. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Flash Flood Advisory

10. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Seasonal Flow Outlook (Experimental)

11. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Forecasts Dissemination
Website
E-mail (
Nationals
stakeholders,
District and
Union
Information
Centers)
SMS ( SMS
to DMC
members in
Pilot Unions)
400 stakeholders received flood
early warning during monsoon
through SMS
120 UISCs and 100 different
stakeholders received flood early
warning through e-mail in Bangla

12. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Forecasts Dissemination.. Contd.

13. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Unions Ranked 1 Ranked 2 Ranked 3 Ranked 4 Ranked 5
Chilmari Agriculture Business Sanitation Household Livestock
Hatia Agriculture Household Communicati
on
Fisheries Household
Mogalbachha Agriculture Communicati
on
Livestock Household Business
Maijbari Agriculture Business Livestock Communication
Most flood-affected sectors

14. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Target groups
Decisions
Forecast lead time
requirement
Farmers Early harvesting of B. Aman, delayed planting of T. Aman 10 days
Crop systems selection, area of T. Aman and subsequent crops Seasonal
Selling cattle, goats and poultry (extreme) Seasonal
Household Storage of dry food, safe drinking water, food grains, fire wood 10 days
Collecting vegetables, banana 1 week
Withdraw money from micro-financing institutions 1 week
Fisherman Protecting fishing nets 1 week
Harvesting fresh water fish from small ponds 10 days
DMCs Planning evacuation routes and boats 20 – 25 days
Arrangements for women and children 20 – 25 days
Distribution of water purification tablets 1 week
Char households Storage of dry food, drinking water, deciding on temporary
shelter
1 week
Forecast lead time requirement for community-level decisions

15. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
• People living along riverbanks shifted to higher places safely and ahead of
time, in response to forecast of flooding at danger level
• Community members observed river water levels to validate forecasts
 Farmers in Chilmari, Maijbari, and Mogalbasa, avoided potential losses,
with use of forecast for late August to early September
 Forecasts were used in livelihoods-related decision-making: moving
livestock to safe places; protection of fishponds; guidance for Aman
cultivation, seedbed preparation, and fertilizer application; consideration of
alternative livelihood sources when severe flooding is predicted
 Forecasts were also used in preparedness when predicted water level
exceeds danger level: stocking of drinking water, moving to flood shelters
Community responses

16. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
86
0
43
57
43
Involvement(%) in response
activities
Trained Volunteers in response
Embank
ment
50%
Neighbou
ring
house
25%
Scholl
cum
shelter
25%
Undertaken shelter by displaced
people
Displaced people’s shelter place during flood
Community responses .. Contd.

17. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment

18. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
20%
20%
20%
40%
Means of dissemination process
Use Mosque mike Meghaphone
Mobile(Rimes) By boat

19. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Conclusions
 Flood forecasting on different time scales has been improving
Forecast accuracy decreases with increase in forecast lead time
 Communities in high-risk areas appreciate the value of longer lead flood forecasts
 Not all UDMC members are able to understand and analyze the forecast
 Some people do not know what to do after receiving information
 Location specific forecast is the high demand from community (especially for
unprotected areas)
 Interpretation (at local level) of forecast needs to be done in a more meaningful
manner to community
 Longer lead flood forecasts (seasonal) have high application potential for securing
livelihoods
 Confidence in the use of probabilistic forecast products is built over time
 Need for institutional mechanism to retain capacity built within FFWC
 Economic potential of longer-lead forecasts need to be translated into government
investment in early warning
 Coordination among different Government departments and other stakeholders needs
to strengthen - in terms of interpretation and dissemination

20. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
RECOMMENDATIONS
Flood Forecasting Systems
 Medium-range (10-day) flood forecasting model runs should be initiated early May
every year
Test the seasonal forecast model for at least two more flood seasons before making the
system operational.
Continuous improvement of flood forecasting systems at the end of flood season
Investment in observation systems is necessary for generating data required for data
assimilation into forecast models, to improve accuracy.
Calibration of the 10-day flood forecasting model may be undertaken yearly to reflect
any change in catchment and river characteristics.
Forecast Application
 Continuous FFWC-UDMC-end user engagement
Regular training of UDMC and UP officials
Strengthen FFWC-UDMC collaboration on forecast and warning communication
Strengthen collaboration between FFWC, DDM, UDMCs and local NGOs on forecast
application and flood preparedness

21. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
RECOMMENDATIONS … CONTD.
Technology improvement through strengthening regional cooperation
Linking local DMCs with National level warning system
Contextualizing national warning message
Identifying local danger level as local reference
Develop volunteer group for warning dissemination
 Developing EW dissemination plan at local level
Conducting drill/simulation on EWS
Raising awareness among people
Overall, a sustainable & functional system on Flood EW should be in
place

22. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment
Acknowledgements
- Grateful to the Almighty Allah
- Supervisor Mr. Abdul Mannan, Scientist,
SAARC Meteorological Research Center
- Community, UDMCS and villagers
- Course coordinator Dr. AQM Mahbub, DU
- Dr. Humayun Kabir, DU
- FFWC, RIMES, CARE’s SHOUHARDO II staff
- Classmates and fiends
- All respected teachers of the faculty and defense
committee members
- My spouse and kids

23. MS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Department of Geography & Environment