The climate in Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh is changing, leading to a shift in the local economy away from apple cultivation. Over the past decades, temperatures have risen and snowfall has decreased in the region, causing the apple growing belt to move to higher altitudes. While apple production has increased through more intensive farming, productivity and farmer incomes have declined. The changing climate is driving people away from farming and encouraging industrial development in the area, which threatens the local environment.

1. LOCATION
1,981 mi²813,384
SHIMLA DISTRICT
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/HimachalPradeshShimla.png/250px-HimachalPradeshShimla.png
Kullu
HIMACHAL PRADESH
Lahual and Spitti
GARGI SINGH, Texas A&M University, gargisingh.in@tamu.edu
CHANGING ECONOMY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
‘Fruit’less Economy of Shimla District, Himachal Pradesh, In-
METHODOLOGY
The study is based on secondary data
collected through remotely sensed
data and published research papers.
The temporal study is done via free
Landsat images provided by USGS.
20131973 2002
LAND USE MAPS
Literature Cited
Dev, S.S. and Kumar, B.S (2013) Horticulture Crop Production In North-western
Himalayas Under Changing Climate Scenario. Science park Research Journal, Vol-1, issue– 8, India.
Kumar, A., K.N. Singh, B. Lal, R.D. Singh (2008), Mapping of Apple Orchards using Remote Sensing Techniques in Cold Desert of Himachal Pradesh, India, J. Indian Soc.
Remote Sens., Springer.
Rana, R.S.; R.M. Bhagat; V. Kalia; H Lal, Impact Of Climate Change On Shift Of Apple Belt In Himachal Pradesh, Centre for Geo- Informatics Research and Training, CSK
Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University.
Sharma A., S. Panigraphy, Apple Orchard Characterization Using Remote Sensing & GISIn Shimla District Of Himachal Pradesh, Space Application Centre, Indian Space
Research Organisation, Department of Space, Ahmedabad.
9003293
Snow Cover (1973)
Snow Cover (2002)
Snow Cover (2013)
1973 2002 2013
Area (Ha) % Area (Ha) % Area (Ha) %
Dense
Forest
107501.0 20.75% 175261 32.78% 184766 35.72%
Open
Forest
145664.0 28.29% 113161 21.88% 128800 24.92%
Scrub 46092.0 8.90% 56423.7 10.91% 56061.3 10.84%
Agriculture 7984.4 1.54% 11960.7 2.31% 17220.8 3.33%
Barren Land 87793.1 16.95% 75700 14.38% 70433.8 13.62%
River 10482.5 2.02% 6571.74 1.27% 6499.76 1.26%
Snow 84591.9 16.33% 49977 10.38% 30674.6 5.93%
Rocky
Exposure
25464.0 4.92% 25908.8 5.67% 20183.3 3.90%
Settlements 1558.2 0.30% 2159.68 0.42% 2484.79 0.48%
Total 517121.1 517123.62 517124.35
Shimla is famous for its apple
orchards as it majorly contributes
to the agrarian economy of the
district. However, due to the shift of
snow to the higher altitudes, the
cultivable area for apple orchard in
the district has been gradually
decreasing over the years.
Though, the production of apple has
gradually increased in the district
due to intensive farming but the
productivity has reduced to half
and so has the income of farmers.
This phenomenon is driving people
away from agrarian occupation and
to make things worse, the
environmental norms have been
relaxed in the state, making it easier
for industries to set up. Ecologically
this is very harmful because Shimla
is a multi-hazard prone district due
to its mountainous terrain.
Therefore, setting up of industries
will aggravate the ecological issues.
The climate change impacts
livelihood of many at different
levels like farmers, exporters, market
sellers, etc. Also, it affects the
quality of the fruit. This further
affects the health of not only the
local residents but the whole
country, where the apples are
exported. This phenomenon shows
how a little change at micro level
can have a snowball effect and turn
into a macro level issue. Planners
need to opt for a sustainable
approach to adapt and mitigate the
impact of global warming.
KEY POINTS
ABSTRACT
In Shimla District, evidence of global
warming is suggested by changes
like receding snowfall in the
Himalayas, a shift in the temperate
fruit belt upward, shifting and
shortening of the winter season,
and disrupted rainfall pattern. This
phenomenon has affected the
livelihood of many and is slowly
changing the face of the local
economy.
Land Area Distribution
CHANGING CLIMATE
Apple is a predominant fruit crop of Himachal Pradesh and in recent
years it has emerged as the leading cash crop amongst fruit crops. Nearly
fifty per cent of total apple crop of the state is produced by district
Shimla.
However, the rise in temperatures and decreased snowfall over years has
adversely affected apple cultivation in the state. Earlier snowfall was a
regular phenomenon in apple growing areas but since 1973 a reduction
in the snow fall from 430 cm to 51.33 cm during the period of 2006-2010
was recorded (Dev et al, 2013).
The un-conducive weather during fruit setting and development in
apple has reduced the apple productivity of the region. The orchards
below 1500 m elevation have been rendered unproductive.
Apple-growing areas in low-altitude areas like Solan reduced by as
much as 77 percent between 1981 and 2007. In the same period, apple
farming took off in the higher-altitude areas of Kinnaur and Lahaul and
Spiti, which were earlier considered too cold and dry.
SHIFT OF SNOW BELT
Apple Cultivation (1973)
Apple Cultivation (2002)
Apple Cultivation (2013)
Conclusions
Most of the farmers have adapted to the changing climate by either
shifting cultivation to other crops or moving to higher altitude areas.
However, to counteract the dwindling economy of the district,
industries have spurred up in the area. This un-sustainable approach in
a muti-hazard prone district can prove to be fatal for the future.
Accepting the change and getting in tune with nature seems to be
the key to survival and prosperity of the mountain farmers.
1995 2005
Apple Area (Ha)
Shimla 0.62 0.60
Lahual & Spitti 0.48 1.09
Kullu 0.55 0.45
Source: Impact of Climate Change on Shift of Apple Belt in Himachal Pradesh, Ranbir Singh Rana and et al
Change in Land use Pattern and Apple Area in Apple
Growing Regions of Himachal Pradesh
In 1973, the Apple
growing belt started from near River Satluj at about 800m
and extended to various parts of the district to about
2800m with major production in between altitudes 1750 m
to 2250 m. In 2002, it shifted from about 1500m to higher
altitudes of around as 3000m, with major cultivation at
around 2250 msl to 2750 msl.
In 2013, with increase in temperature there has been
increase in altitude of apple cultivation from 1250 msl to
4000 msl. In 2013, the most of the production took place in
altitude 2000 msl to 3000 msl.
Years Area (Ha)
1973 13866
2002 27232
2013 34242
The production of apple has
gradually increased but the
productivity has fallen from 10.8
to 5.8 t/ha (Awasthi et al., 2001).
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The free Landsat Images usually
have defects, hence, the images
don’t belong to the same date and
might have distortions which can
impact the analysis. The analysis
done for the study isn’t exact but
suitable for a rough idea.
Apples can be grown at altitudes 1,500-2,700 m. above m.s.l. in the
Himalayan range which experience 1,000-1,500 hours of chilling (the
no. of hours during which temperature remains at or below 70
C
during the winter season). The temperature during the growing
season is around 21-240
C. For optimum growth and fruiting, apple
trees need 100-125 cm. of annual rainfall, evenly distributed
during the growing season.
Due to variation in temperature and precipitation over the years, it
has impacted productivity and cultivable area of apple.
Air Quality
Year
OptimumpH
forRiver
pHinShimla
OptimumDO
DO(mg/l)in
Shimla
OptimumBOD
(mg/l)
BOD(mg/l)in
Shimla
OptimumTC
TC(MPN)in
Shimla
2004-05 7.4 8.19 >10 8.7 <1 0.1 <100 395
2005-06 7.4 8.03 >10 9.5 <1 0.2 <100 221
2006-07 7.4 8.41 >10 9.5 <1 0.2 <100 80
2007-08 7.4 8.2 >10 8.9 <1 0.1 <100 32
2008-09 7.4 8.46 >10 9.3 <1 0.2 <100 144
2009-10 7.4 7.84 >10 9.4 <1 0.1 <100 22
2010-11 7.4 8.29 >10 8.5 <1 0.7 <100 40
Source: http://www.iitg.ernet.in/scifac/qip/public_html/cd_cell/CD%20Cell%20Lab%20Manual%20Report.pdf
http://cpcb.nic.in/National_Ambient_Air_Quality_Standards.php ; http://hppcb.gov.in/airquality/shimla.pdf
Source: http://hppcb.nic.in/waterquality/WQ13.pdf
1995 2005
Income from fruits (Percent)
Shimla 59.3 32.8
Lahual & Spitti 17.2 29.1
Kullu 69.9 39.6
Source: Impact of Climate Change on Shift of Apple Belt in Himachal Pradesh, Ranbir Singh Rana and et
Though most of the farmers have shifted to protected cultivation of
flowers and vegetables to save their livelihoods, the state has been
diluting its laws for industries. The rise in secondary sector in the
state and rising industrial units in the district is rescuing the State
Domestic Product at one side but harming the environment on the
other.
Registered Industrial Units in Shimla DistrictSectoral State Domestic Product at Current Prices
Source: http://hpplanning.nic.in/
Share of Apple cultivation at different altitudes over the time
RISING TEMPERATURE AND REDUCING PRECIPITATIONSHIFT OF APPLE BELT TO HIGHER ALTITUDES
Decreasing trend in Snowfall Pattern of Wet Temperate
region of North-Western Himalayas
(Dev at al, 2013)
“In 1960, there were many
apple trees in the village.
About 4-5 trucks of apple
were export to the
neighbouring states -Delhi
and Punjab. But in 20 years,
climate gradually became
warmer. So, farmers have
either moved up to the
apple growing areas or
gave up growing apples
altogether.” said a farmer
in Shimla.
Source: The Weeping Apple Tree
(Vijay Jodha) UKEFF 2005
Increase in cultivable area but decrease in productivity
This trend led to
reduction in
chilling units in
the normal apple
growing zone
(1200-1800 msl)
crop.
Source: IMD and India Water Portal
The average precipitation has fallen from 86mm per month in 1980 to
Shimla
Month Slope
November -3.55
December -15.03
January -17.94
February -14.96
Source:ImpactofClimateChangeonShiftofApple
BeltinHimachalPradesh,RanbirSinghRanaandetal
Decreasing chill units
Chilling unit in agriculture is a metric of a plant's exposure to chilling
temperatures. There has been decline of more than 9.1 units per
year in last 23 years of period.
CHANGING ECONOMYINTRODUCTION
Similar Signs in the US
Crops like Corn and soybeans have been migrating to north and are
increasingly grown in areas where it was too cold in past. However,
the United States has mostly benefited by warmer temperature
because growers are getting harvests that would have been
unimaginable years ago.
 NY was considered too cold for soybeans but now it grows
thousands of acres of protein rich beans.
 Florida and California are not getting enough chill hours for
blueberry and fruit crops respectively.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
Water Quality
TAKE AWAY