This document discusses potential ways that African swine fever virus (ASFV) could enter the United States. It analyzes data on tons of agricultural products imported from China and survival of ASFV in various feed ingredients and packaging materials. The document finds that ASFV can survive in some soy and animal feed products as well as sausage casings, with varying half-lives. It proposes a "Responsible Imports" protocol using science-based mitigation strategies to safely introduce essential products from high-risk countries.

2. How could ASFV enter the US?

3. Option 1: A Day’s Work at O’Hare.
Courtesy: Dr. Dave Schmitt

4. Option 2: Grain drying in China.

5. Metric Tons of Agricultural Products Imported from China to US:
2013-June, 2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
(Jan-Jun)
1.9 M 1.6 M 1.9 M 1.9 M 1.7 M ~1 M
Courtesy Dr. Pyburn, NPB

6. ASFV: Relationship of Trans-Atlantic route and sampling points
Batch 1 (d 1 PI)
Batch 2 (d 9 PI)
Batch 3 (d 19 PI)
Batch 4 (d 30 PI)

7. Mean daily temperature & % RH data: Trans-Atlantic model
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Atlantic Ocean New York City CLE: CHI: DSMWarsaw-Hannover-Le Harve
% RH
C 0
Study Period

8. ASFV survival in batch 4 samples (30 DPI).
Ingredient
SVA
(FMDV) ASFV
PSV
(SVDV) PEDV
FCV
(VESV) PCV2
BHV-1
(PRV)
PRRSV
174
BVDV
(CSFV) VSV
CDV
(NiV) IAV-S
Soybean meal-Conventional (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (-) (+) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Soybean meal-Organic (-) (+) (+) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Soy oil cake (+) (+) (+) NT (-) (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
DDGS (+) (-) (-) NT (-) (-) (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Lysine (+) (-) (+) (+) (+) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Choline (+) (+) (-) (+) (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Vitamin D (+) (-) (+) (+) (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Moist cat food (+) (+) (+) NT (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Moist dog food (+) (+) (+) NT (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Dry dog food (+) (+) (+) NT (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Pork sausagecasings (+) (+) (+) NT (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Complete feed (+ control) (+) (+) (+) NT (+) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Complete feed (- control) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)
Stock virus control (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-)

9. ASFV mean titer and T ½ data @ D 30 PI
Ingredient VI Mean titer T ½ (days)
Soybean meal-Conventional Pos/Pos 10*3.0 1.3
Soybean meal-Organic Pos/Pos 10*3.1 1.8
Soy oil cake Pos/Pos 10*3.2 2.1
DDGS Neg/Neg (NEG BIOASSAY) NT NT
Lysine Neg/Neg (NEG BIOASSAY) NT NT
Choline Pos/Pos 10*3.2 2.2
Vitamin D Neg/Neg (NEG BIOASSAY) NT NT
Moist cat food Pos/Pos 10*3.0 1.3
Moist dog food Pos/Pos 10*2.8 1.8
Dry dog food Pos/Pos 10*2.8 1.8
Pork sausage casings Pos/Pos 10*2.9 1.9
Complete feed (positive control) Pos/Pos 10*2.9 1.9
Complete feed (negative control) Neg/Neg (NEG BIOASSAY) NT NT
Stock virus (positive control) Pos/Pos 10*3.0 1.8

10. Responsible Imports (Luke)
Definition: A science-based protocol to safely introduce essential products from countries of high risk.
Overview: A multi-pronged approach involving efficacious mitigants, calculated storage time and common
sense.
Variables in the Equation:
1. Level of contamination
2. Transport time
3. Mitigant effect on viral load
4. T ½ of virus
5. Common sense