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Head of research department
CAPEG
Gender, agricultural development
and trade reforms in Niger
Dr. Saadatou A. Sangare
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Background
• Trade liberalization is the basis of the negotiations around the African Continental
Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) , the launch of which finally took place in 2021.
• Beside the many benefits of the liberalization (fostering the creation of regional supply
chains, and enhancing the continent's industrial growth), there is a fear that certain
branches of activity will be penalized with negative effects on profits, employment
prospects, budgetary revenues etc.
• Over the past 20 years, integration into the global economy has indeed boosted
economic growth in countries like China and India, but for many other countries like
Africa, progress has been less.
• Niger, economic integration is weak in view of the share of the country's exports in
world exports
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Background
• Foreign trade represents 38% of GDP in 2018
(40% of the country's GDP in 2019)
• Structural trade deficit: In 2018, the trade
balance deficit reached USD 1.079 billion
(World Bank).
• Exports of natural resources and basic
agricultural products
• 15.3% of exports are directed to the African
market while imports from Africa represent
12.1% of global imports
29.4%
9.0%
6.8%
1.7% 1.7%
0.8%
3.9%
11.8%
2.6%
1.6%
7.1%
3.2%
1.6%
22.6%
0.1%
21.3%
8.0%
0.0%
17.3%
0.0%
3.3%
5.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Valeur ajoutee
Exportations
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Background
Principal clients (% of exports)
Country Weight
Suisse 13,5%
Malaisie 13,3%
Nigéria 11,4%
Brésil 6,3%
Chine 5,9%
Indonésie 4,0%
Mali 3,9%
Turquie 3,9%
Principaux fournisseurs
(% des importations)
Country Weight
Chine 21,5%
France 20,8%
Thaïlande 8,5%
Etats-Unis 7,3%
Nigéria 6,2%
Côte d'Ivoire 3,2%
Ghana 2,7%
Allemagne 2,7%
Japon 2,7%
Inde 2,2%
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Background
• Agriculture is fundamental to the development of Niger
• The sector employs 82% of the population.
• It contributes more than 65% to the primary sector
• It represents a significant share (29.4%) of the gross domestic product
and also exports.
• Since 2015, the acceleration of the Nigerien economy has been partly
driven by the dynamism of the agricultural sector through the expansion
of irrigated crops and the modernization of rainfed agriculture.
• Agriculture productivity is weak
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Background
• In Niger, women represent more than half of the population
• Strong gender disparity
• The trend towards the feminization of poverty has been further reinforced in
recent years.
• The gender inequality index stood at 0.674 in 2016, placing the Niger 149th
out of 152 countries ranked.
• Inequalities against women concern, among other things, the participation of
women in economic activities.
• Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5: Achieve gender equality and
empower all women and girls.
• Women are often affiliated with sectors likely to be most affected by
the implementation of the reform
• Share of female Employment in manufacturing industry is 38.5%
(11% of the total of male employment)
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Research question
• Does the AfCFTA have a beneficial impact on agricultural sector and the
economic conditions of women in Niger?
• This specifically involves
• highlighting the transmission channels of the reduction in customs tariffs in order to
identify the effects on economic growth and employment for women and men.
• predict the effects of certain responses envisaged by the public authorities such as the
exploitation of the margin in internal taxation or the development of agricultural
investments
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Literature review
• Analyzes on the impact of trade liberalization on the economy are
numerous (Gilles B. UMBA (2013), Berrached, A. and Bouklia, R. (2013),
K Ghaddab – 2010, M OUATMANE) but those integrating the question of
gender are rather recent.
• Regarding the latter, the main conclusions differ according to the context
and sometimes argue an increase in gender inequalities (Latorre (2014)
in Tanzania, Fofana et al. (2006) in Senegal) sometimes their reduction
(Mitik and Berthomieu (2008) in Ethiopia ).
• The increase in wage disparities would result from the fact that
liberalization is more profitable for sectors that use more male labor.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Methodology
• We use CGE modeling approach because it makes it possible to:
• take into account the external impact
• identify the shock transmission channels
• highlight the redistributive effects and feedback effects
• The 2018 SAM generated has :
• 25 sectors of activity (agriculture, mining, industry, electricity, public and private services),
• 6 factors of production (female skilled labor, male skilled labor, female unskilled labor,
unskilled labor male and capital),
• 3 institutions accounts : firm, government, rest of the world
• 4 tax accounts and a savings-investment account.
• Households are broken down into 4 sub-groups according to their sectors of activity
(agricultural households, public salaried households, private salaried households and
informal households),
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Methodology
• The standard structure of the PEP-1-t model is modified to meet
the needs of the analysis.
1. Disaggregation of foreign trade flows
• CET function with 3 partners
Production
XSj
External
market
Exi,j
West Africa
Rest of Africa
Rest of the
World
Domestic
market
DSi,j
 Small country assumption,
i.e. Niger has no influence
on world prices.
 Export demand is limited
by export supply. It is
assumed to have a finite
elasticity which reflects the
level of competitiveness of
local producers on the
international market.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Methodology
• On the demand side
• The Armington hypothesis (Armington 1969), which amounts to assuming a
degree of imperfect substitution between national production and the 'import
• The income and trade elasticities used are taken from Zidouemba and Gérard
(2015).
Production
Qi
External market
IMi
West of Africa
Rest of Africa
Rest of the
world
Domestic
Market
DDi
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Methodology
2. Labor market specification
• We consider the wage curve of Blanchflower and Oswald (1995) which consists in assuming a
relationship with a negative slope between the wage rate and the unemployment rate on each labor
market.
• 𝑊𝑙 = 𝐴𝑙 ∗ 𝑇𝐶𝐻𝑂𝑙
𝜀𝑙
∗ 𝑃𝐼𝑆𝐶𝑂𝑁
• Where: W represents the wage rate, A is the parameter, ε is the elasticity of wages with respect to
unemployment. PIXCON is the consumer price index.
• We have introduced the qualification to reflect the Nigerien labor market whose characteristics depend on
the level of qualification of the job.
• Skilled jobs are generally more sustainable with a specific wage rate,
• while unskilled jobs are often in the informal sector and are more precarious.
• A worker is considered qualified when he has a level of education above secondary school.
• We establish, with reference to Decaluwé et al. (1998) then Gosselin (2010), intra-sector labor mobility
between branches and an absence of inter-sector mobility (unskilled workers will not be able to easily
change their sector of activity in the short term)
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Methodology
• For the closure of the model, we assume that:
• the nominal exchange rate is the numerary.
• Savings from the rest of the world are fixed so that Niger cannot borrow from the rest of the world.
• Public expenditure is fixed.
• The income and trade elasticities used are taken from Zidouemba and Gérard (2015).
• Three scenarios were simulated in line with the AfCFTA implementation clauses.
• Gradual reduction of customs duties (90% of customs duties by 2030)
• Gradual reduction of customs duties and increase in tax revenue (scen 1 + 20% increase in the
average domestic tax on products)
• Gradual reduction of customs duties and increase in public agricultural investments (20%
increase in agricultural investments to assess the capacity of this reform to cover the loss of
customs revenue.)
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
RESULTS
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on macroeconomic variables
SIMULATION 1 SIMULATION 2 SIMULATION 3
Short
term
Long
term
Short
term
Long
term
Short
term
Long
term
GDP -0.25 -0.82 0.24 0.03 0.188 -0.04
GOVERNMENT
REVENUE
-3.31 -7.55 2.13 -1.99 -2.78 -6.45
TOTAL
INVESTMENT
-2.57 -5.87 0.40 -2.74 -1.96 -4.61
PRIVATE
INVESTMENT
-2.59 -5.94 0.42 -2.75 -1.98 -4.67
INDIRECT TAXES -1.47 -3.52 18.36 16.22 -0.89 -2.3
CONSUMER PRICE
INDEX
-1.21 -2.56 -0.91 -2.47 -1.125 -2.29
• Negative impacts on growth in general
that can be reversed by a reform on the
agriculture sector or tax reform.
• However complementary measures
must be considered in long-term
• Reduction in total investment and
corporate savings, while the initial deficit
in government savings widens further.
• the negative effects can be reduced
but less than proportionally with a
reform on the agricultural sector
than a tax reform.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impacts on import
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
elect
const
trans
comm
financ
serv_tech
admin
autres_serv
Simulation 1
Court terme
Long terme -60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Simulation 2
Court terme
Long terme
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Simulation 3
Court…
Long…
• AfCFTA will have a large but diversified effect on the economic sectors. The agricultural sector appears to
be the sector most impacted, probably due to its high elasticity to demand.
• Imports of agricultural products are gradually increasing
• Livestock, forestry and fishing sectors seem to react more favorably with a drop in imports over theperiod
• When lower tariffs are associated with tax reform, rising import price trends slow down. However, the
service sectors only saw their imports decline three years later
• We found a beneficial effect of investments in the agricultural sector on the fall in imports, mainly in the
agriculture sub-sector and the services sector (Simulation 3)
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on export
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
elect
const
trans
comm
financ
serv_tech
admin
autres_serv
Simulation 1
Court terme
Long terme
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
elect
const
trans
comm
financ
serv_tech
admin
autres_serv
Simulation 2
Court terme
Long terme
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
const
trans
heber
comm
financ
serv_tech
autres_serv
Simulation 3
Court terme
Long terme
• Positively impact of exports in all sectors.
• The livestock, forestry, fishing and communication sectors still appear to be those whose exports are
growing the most.
• When liberalization is coupled with additional efforts in domestic tax revenue mobilization or more
investment in the agricultural sector, there is an increase in exports in all sectors in the short term. In
the long term, exports maintain their growth path.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on production
• AfCFTA will constrain the production of goods in several economic sectors (due to the competition from imported
products which have become cheaper and the initial fragility of the sectors of activity).
• Construction, food manufacturing and paper manufacturing and technical services are most impacted.
• Service sectors will experience an increase in production, with the exception of financial, real estate and
technical services.
• In simulation 3, the negative effects on the production of agro- sylvo -pastoral goods are reversed at the level of all
sectors, just as the amplitudes of the decline in the manufacturing sectors are greatly reduced by 2030.
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
elect
eau
const
commer_rep
commer_gros
trans
heber
comm
financ
immob
serv_tech
admin
educ
sante
autres_serv
Simulation 1
Court terme Long terme -1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
agri
elev
sylv
peche
extract
fab_aliment
fab_textiles
fab_papier
fab_raffinerie
fab_autres
elect
eau
const
commer_rep
commer_gros
trans
heber
comm
financ
immob
serv_tech
admin
educ
sante
autres_serv
Simulation 2
Court terme Long terme
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Simulation 3
Court
terme
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on the labor market
• We found mixed effects on the labor market
• A decline in labor demand in the sectors that are the most
import-intensive: manufacturing, water, electricity, trade, and
real estate and technical services.
• An increase of labor demand in sectors linked to agriculture and
services (transport, accommodation, communication,
administration, education) due to the increase in the demand
for exports. The same trends are observed in the second
simulation but with more pronounced amplitudes.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on the labor market
WAGE RATE SIMULATION 1 SIMULATION 2 SIMULATION 3
2024 2029 2024 2029 2024 2029
WOMAN
QUALIFIES
0.19 0.29 -0.21 0.01 0.418 0.789
QUALIFIED MAN 0.19 0.27 -0.22 -0.02 0.428 0.792
UNQUALIFIED
WOMAN
-1.17 -2.71 -1.24 -2.66 -0.138 -1.30
UNQUALIFIED
MAN
-1.09 -2.52 -1.17 -2.48 -0.115 -1.179
• Wage rate increases only for skilled
workers, while unskilled workers
experience a decline in their labor
income that increases over time
• Gender disparities increase among
unskilled workers to the benefit of
men.
• The reform on the agricultural
sector seems to be more beneficial
for skilled men and women for
whom the wage rate increases.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on consumer price
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Simulation 1
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Simulation 2
Court terme
Long terme
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Simulation 3
Court terme
Long terme
• Consumer prices fall in all simulations with larger amplitudes in the last one. This corroborates the
trends observed at the level of imports.
• The most significant decline is recorded in the livestock sector.
• The fall in the prices of goods is beneficial for populations who see their purchasing power increase.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Impact on household income
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
Court terme Long terme Court terme Long terme
Sim1 Sim2
Household disposable income
H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel -0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Court terme Long terme Court terme Long terme
Sim1 Sim2
Actual consumption
H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel
Household disposable income Sim 3
Court terme
Long terme
• We have a reduction in household incomes of all categories in the three scenarios
• Agricultural households seem to be more impacted by liberalization and public households the least affected.
• Nevertheless, apart from agricultural households, all households manage to increase their consumption, probably due
to the improvement in their purchasing power resulting from the reduction in the price of goods.
• In simulation 2, the drastic reduction in consumption observed in the short term is reduced in the long term. Farm
households continue to be the hardest hit by the tax reform.
• But increased investment in the agricultural sector allows Nigeriens to make up for the loss of their income since their
consumption increases in the short and long term.
#2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE
Conclusion
• The results show that in the absence of accompanying measures, the AfCFTA has a negative
impact on the Nigerien economy in general in the short term, which deteriorates further in
the long term. Efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals would then be strongly
impacted.
• However, while investment efforts in the agricultural sector seem beneficial for the
populations in terms of gains, increased mobilization of domestic taxation could redress the
trends, but only in the short and medium term. It is therefore essential to combine other
complementary measures to hope to benefit from the AfCFTA.
• Trade liberalization risks increasing gender disparities within unskilled households. It is
therefore essential to create facilities to help women to be more resilient and to be able to
benefit from liberalization.
• Finally, this research considered a single account of the rest of the world, which does not
allow us to take into account feedback effects between partner countries. This could be a
future direction of research to consider to refine the analysis.
• In addition, to properly appreciate the effects in terms of well-being and poverty reduction,
the results of the analysis must be combined with a micro-simulation exercise.
THANK YOU

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Dr. Saadatou A. Sangaré_ 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference

  • 1. Head of research department CAPEG Gender, agricultural development and trade reforms in Niger Dr. Saadatou A. Sangare
  • 2. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Background • Trade liberalization is the basis of the negotiations around the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) , the launch of which finally took place in 2021. • Beside the many benefits of the liberalization (fostering the creation of regional supply chains, and enhancing the continent's industrial growth), there is a fear that certain branches of activity will be penalized with negative effects on profits, employment prospects, budgetary revenues etc. • Over the past 20 years, integration into the global economy has indeed boosted economic growth in countries like China and India, but for many other countries like Africa, progress has been less. • Niger, economic integration is weak in view of the share of the country's exports in world exports
  • 3. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Background • Foreign trade represents 38% of GDP in 2018 (40% of the country's GDP in 2019) • Structural trade deficit: In 2018, the trade balance deficit reached USD 1.079 billion (World Bank). • Exports of natural resources and basic agricultural products • 15.3% of exports are directed to the African market while imports from Africa represent 12.1% of global imports 29.4% 9.0% 6.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 3.9% 11.8% 2.6% 1.6% 7.1% 3.2% 1.6% 22.6% 0.1% 21.3% 8.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 3.3% 5.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Valeur ajoutee Exportations
  • 4. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Background Principal clients (% of exports) Country Weight Suisse 13,5% Malaisie 13,3% Nigéria 11,4% Brésil 6,3% Chine 5,9% Indonésie 4,0% Mali 3,9% Turquie 3,9% Principaux fournisseurs (% des importations) Country Weight Chine 21,5% France 20,8% Thaïlande 8,5% Etats-Unis 7,3% Nigéria 6,2% Côte d'Ivoire 3,2% Ghana 2,7% Allemagne 2,7% Japon 2,7% Inde 2,2%
  • 5. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Background • Agriculture is fundamental to the development of Niger • The sector employs 82% of the population. • It contributes more than 65% to the primary sector • It represents a significant share (29.4%) of the gross domestic product and also exports. • Since 2015, the acceleration of the Nigerien economy has been partly driven by the dynamism of the agricultural sector through the expansion of irrigated crops and the modernization of rainfed agriculture. • Agriculture productivity is weak
  • 6. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Background • In Niger, women represent more than half of the population • Strong gender disparity • The trend towards the feminization of poverty has been further reinforced in recent years. • The gender inequality index stood at 0.674 in 2016, placing the Niger 149th out of 152 countries ranked. • Inequalities against women concern, among other things, the participation of women in economic activities. • Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. • Women are often affiliated with sectors likely to be most affected by the implementation of the reform • Share of female Employment in manufacturing industry is 38.5% (11% of the total of male employment)
  • 7. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Research question • Does the AfCFTA have a beneficial impact on agricultural sector and the economic conditions of women in Niger? • This specifically involves • highlighting the transmission channels of the reduction in customs tariffs in order to identify the effects on economic growth and employment for women and men. • predict the effects of certain responses envisaged by the public authorities such as the exploitation of the margin in internal taxation or the development of agricultural investments
  • 8. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Literature review • Analyzes on the impact of trade liberalization on the economy are numerous (Gilles B. UMBA (2013), Berrached, A. and Bouklia, R. (2013), K Ghaddab – 2010, M OUATMANE) but those integrating the question of gender are rather recent. • Regarding the latter, the main conclusions differ according to the context and sometimes argue an increase in gender inequalities (Latorre (2014) in Tanzania, Fofana et al. (2006) in Senegal) sometimes their reduction (Mitik and Berthomieu (2008) in Ethiopia ). • The increase in wage disparities would result from the fact that liberalization is more profitable for sectors that use more male labor.
  • 9. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Methodology • We use CGE modeling approach because it makes it possible to: • take into account the external impact • identify the shock transmission channels • highlight the redistributive effects and feedback effects • The 2018 SAM generated has : • 25 sectors of activity (agriculture, mining, industry, electricity, public and private services), • 6 factors of production (female skilled labor, male skilled labor, female unskilled labor, unskilled labor male and capital), • 3 institutions accounts : firm, government, rest of the world • 4 tax accounts and a savings-investment account. • Households are broken down into 4 sub-groups according to their sectors of activity (agricultural households, public salaried households, private salaried households and informal households),
  • 10. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Methodology • The standard structure of the PEP-1-t model is modified to meet the needs of the analysis. 1. Disaggregation of foreign trade flows • CET function with 3 partners Production XSj External market Exi,j West Africa Rest of Africa Rest of the World Domestic market DSi,j  Small country assumption, i.e. Niger has no influence on world prices.  Export demand is limited by export supply. It is assumed to have a finite elasticity which reflects the level of competitiveness of local producers on the international market.
  • 11. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Methodology • On the demand side • The Armington hypothesis (Armington 1969), which amounts to assuming a degree of imperfect substitution between national production and the 'import • The income and trade elasticities used are taken from Zidouemba and Gérard (2015). Production Qi External market IMi West of Africa Rest of Africa Rest of the world Domestic Market DDi
  • 12. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Methodology 2. Labor market specification • We consider the wage curve of Blanchflower and Oswald (1995) which consists in assuming a relationship with a negative slope between the wage rate and the unemployment rate on each labor market. • 𝑊𝑙 = 𝐴𝑙 ∗ 𝑇𝐶𝐻𝑂𝑙 𝜀𝑙 ∗ 𝑃𝐼𝑆𝐶𝑂𝑁 • Where: W represents the wage rate, A is the parameter, ε is the elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment. PIXCON is the consumer price index. • We have introduced the qualification to reflect the Nigerien labor market whose characteristics depend on the level of qualification of the job. • Skilled jobs are generally more sustainable with a specific wage rate, • while unskilled jobs are often in the informal sector and are more precarious. • A worker is considered qualified when he has a level of education above secondary school. • We establish, with reference to Decaluwé et al. (1998) then Gosselin (2010), intra-sector labor mobility between branches and an absence of inter-sector mobility (unskilled workers will not be able to easily change their sector of activity in the short term)
  • 13. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Methodology • For the closure of the model, we assume that: • the nominal exchange rate is the numerary. • Savings from the rest of the world are fixed so that Niger cannot borrow from the rest of the world. • Public expenditure is fixed. • The income and trade elasticities used are taken from Zidouemba and Gérard (2015). • Three scenarios were simulated in line with the AfCFTA implementation clauses. • Gradual reduction of customs duties (90% of customs duties by 2030) • Gradual reduction of customs duties and increase in tax revenue (scen 1 + 20% increase in the average domestic tax on products) • Gradual reduction of customs duties and increase in public agricultural investments (20% increase in agricultural investments to assess the capacity of this reform to cover the loss of customs revenue.)
  • 15. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on macroeconomic variables SIMULATION 1 SIMULATION 2 SIMULATION 3 Short term Long term Short term Long term Short term Long term GDP -0.25 -0.82 0.24 0.03 0.188 -0.04 GOVERNMENT REVENUE -3.31 -7.55 2.13 -1.99 -2.78 -6.45 TOTAL INVESTMENT -2.57 -5.87 0.40 -2.74 -1.96 -4.61 PRIVATE INVESTMENT -2.59 -5.94 0.42 -2.75 -1.98 -4.67 INDIRECT TAXES -1.47 -3.52 18.36 16.22 -0.89 -2.3 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX -1.21 -2.56 -0.91 -2.47 -1.125 -2.29 • Negative impacts on growth in general that can be reversed by a reform on the agriculture sector or tax reform. • However complementary measures must be considered in long-term • Reduction in total investment and corporate savings, while the initial deficit in government savings widens further. • the negative effects can be reduced but less than proportionally with a reform on the agricultural sector than a tax reform.
  • 16. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impacts on import -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres elect const trans comm financ serv_tech admin autres_serv Simulation 1 Court terme Long terme -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Simulation 2 Court terme Long terme -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Simulation 3 Court… Long… • AfCFTA will have a large but diversified effect on the economic sectors. The agricultural sector appears to be the sector most impacted, probably due to its high elasticity to demand. • Imports of agricultural products are gradually increasing • Livestock, forestry and fishing sectors seem to react more favorably with a drop in imports over theperiod • When lower tariffs are associated with tax reform, rising import price trends slow down. However, the service sectors only saw their imports decline three years later • We found a beneficial effect of investments in the agricultural sector on the fall in imports, mainly in the agriculture sub-sector and the services sector (Simulation 3)
  • 17. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on export 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres elect const trans comm financ serv_tech admin autres_serv Simulation 1 Court terme Long terme 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres elect const trans comm financ serv_tech admin autres_serv Simulation 2 Court terme Long terme 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres const trans heber comm financ serv_tech autres_serv Simulation 3 Court terme Long terme • Positively impact of exports in all sectors. • The livestock, forestry, fishing and communication sectors still appear to be those whose exports are growing the most. • When liberalization is coupled with additional efforts in domestic tax revenue mobilization or more investment in the agricultural sector, there is an increase in exports in all sectors in the short term. In the long term, exports maintain their growth path.
  • 18. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on production • AfCFTA will constrain the production of goods in several economic sectors (due to the competition from imported products which have become cheaper and the initial fragility of the sectors of activity). • Construction, food manufacturing and paper manufacturing and technical services are most impacted. • Service sectors will experience an increase in production, with the exception of financial, real estate and technical services. • In simulation 3, the negative effects on the production of agro- sylvo -pastoral goods are reversed at the level of all sectors, just as the amplitudes of the decline in the manufacturing sectors are greatly reduced by 2030. -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres elect eau const commer_rep commer_gros trans heber comm financ immob serv_tech admin educ sante autres_serv Simulation 1 Court terme Long terme -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 agri elev sylv peche extract fab_aliment fab_textiles fab_papier fab_raffinerie fab_autres elect eau const commer_rep commer_gros trans heber comm financ immob serv_tech admin educ sante autres_serv Simulation 2 Court terme Long terme -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 Simulation 3 Court terme
  • 19. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on the labor market • We found mixed effects on the labor market • A decline in labor demand in the sectors that are the most import-intensive: manufacturing, water, electricity, trade, and real estate and technical services. • An increase of labor demand in sectors linked to agriculture and services (transport, accommodation, communication, administration, education) due to the increase in the demand for exports. The same trends are observed in the second simulation but with more pronounced amplitudes.
  • 20. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on the labor market WAGE RATE SIMULATION 1 SIMULATION 2 SIMULATION 3 2024 2029 2024 2029 2024 2029 WOMAN QUALIFIES 0.19 0.29 -0.21 0.01 0.418 0.789 QUALIFIED MAN 0.19 0.27 -0.22 -0.02 0.428 0.792 UNQUALIFIED WOMAN -1.17 -2.71 -1.24 -2.66 -0.138 -1.30 UNQUALIFIED MAN -1.09 -2.52 -1.17 -2.48 -0.115 -1.179 • Wage rate increases only for skilled workers, while unskilled workers experience a decline in their labor income that increases over time • Gender disparities increase among unskilled workers to the benefit of men. • The reform on the agricultural sector seems to be more beneficial for skilled men and women for whom the wage rate increases.
  • 21. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on consumer price -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Simulation 1 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Simulation 2 Court terme Long terme -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Simulation 3 Court terme Long terme • Consumer prices fall in all simulations with larger amplitudes in the last one. This corroborates the trends observed at the level of imports. • The most significant decline is recorded in the livestock sector. • The fall in the prices of goods is beneficial for populations who see their purchasing power increase.
  • 22. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Impact on household income -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 Court terme Long terme Court terme Long terme Sim1 Sim2 Household disposable income H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 Court terme Long terme Court terme Long terme Sim1 Sim2 Actual consumption H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 H_agri H_public H_prive H_informel Household disposable income Sim 3 Court terme Long terme • We have a reduction in household incomes of all categories in the three scenarios • Agricultural households seem to be more impacted by liberalization and public households the least affected. • Nevertheless, apart from agricultural households, all households manage to increase their consumption, probably due to the improvement in their purchasing power resulting from the reduction in the price of goods. • In simulation 2, the drastic reduction in consumption observed in the short term is reduced in the long term. Farm households continue to be the hardest hit by the tax reform. • But increased investment in the agricultural sector allows Nigeriens to make up for the loss of their income since their consumption increases in the short and long term.
  • 23. #2023 AGRODEP CONFERENCE Conclusion • The results show that in the absence of accompanying measures, the AfCFTA has a negative impact on the Nigerien economy in general in the short term, which deteriorates further in the long term. Efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals would then be strongly impacted. • However, while investment efforts in the agricultural sector seem beneficial for the populations in terms of gains, increased mobilization of domestic taxation could redress the trends, but only in the short and medium term. It is therefore essential to combine other complementary measures to hope to benefit from the AfCFTA. • Trade liberalization risks increasing gender disparities within unskilled households. It is therefore essential to create facilities to help women to be more resilient and to be able to benefit from liberalization. • Finally, this research considered a single account of the rest of the world, which does not allow us to take into account feedback effects between partner countries. This could be a future direction of research to consider to refine the analysis. • In addition, to properly appreciate the effects in terms of well-being and poverty reduction, the results of the analysis must be combined with a micro-simulation exercise.