RES-4011B-U FEB 2009 Page 1 of 2
UK        STRATEGY                        REPORT


DON’T FEAR THE BEAR
When share prices begin falling dramatically, it can appear that your only option is to sell in order to limit losses.
We disagree. As a long-term investor, the difference between success and failure may be determined by your
actions during a stock market decline.



No one can predict a bear market, but we believe                                            Keep a Cool Head. Try to Stay Calm.
remaining focused on your investment strategy is the                                        Bear markets are usually quite frightening. The stock
best way to weather one. It’s called a bear market                                          market decline can be dramatic. It almost seems like
because it resembles a bear’s attack — rearing up on                                        there is no end in sight and you’ll hear many predictions
its hind legs and swiping its paws downward. A bear                                         about how much lower shares could go.
market is a sharp, prolonged decline in share prices,
usually 20% or more, almost always triggered by                                             In every bear market, the rebound has been unexpected
unexpected events or economic conditions. As a result,                                      and has started when the outlook appeared bleak. In
investors can frequently be caught off guard and                                            bear markets, investors should keep a cool head and
become susceptible to the anxiety caused by the                                             a steady hand and try not to be swayed by extreme
reports of gloom and uncertainty.                                                           predictions of doom and gloom.

It’s unlikely that you will ever meet a real bear face to                                   Make No Sudden Moves. Stand Your Ground.
face. However, if you’re a long-term investor, it’s almost                                  You should never jump into or jump out of the stock
a certainty that you will experience a bear market. Our                                     market. We believe it’s almost always a bad idea to
advice is this: Stock market declines are normal, happen                                    make a long-term investment decision in reaction to
frequently and are not a reason to sell quality investments.                                short-term market fluctuation. If your portfolio contains
                                                                                            quality investments that are well-diversified, our best
Our advice for surviving a bear market is almost identical
                                                                                            advice is to stay the course during market declines.
to survivalist Peter Kummerfeldt’s advice if you come
face to face with a real bear:
                                                                                            During and immediately after market declines, the
                                                                                            temptation almost always exists to sell quality share
‘When faced with a real bear, keep a cool head. Try to
                                                                                            and bond investments, and change your strategy.
stay calm. Do not yell, scream, kick or fight. Don’t panic.
                                                                                            Commodities, investments proclaiming to hedge
Make no sudden moves. Stand your ground. Never try
                                                                                            market risk, property and other alternatives often
to outrun a bear; it will only make matters worse. The
                                                                                            become popular after a poor stock market performance.
injuries that occur are more a function of what the human
does to resist than what the bear is capable of doing.’
                                                                                            Rather than chasing the best performing investments,
                                                                                            stay committed to your long-term strategy. Although
DECLINES IN THE UK STOCK MARKET                                                             past performance is not an indication of future results,
1948 – 2008
                                                                                            over the long term an investment in the stock market
                     Dip                   Correction                Bear                   has historically performed well. However, investors
                  5% of More              10% or More             20% or More               who try to predict when to get into and out of shares
                                                                                            can pay a severe penalty for not being fully invested
  Number                 52                       21                      11                when the market is rising.

  Per Year           About 1                  1 every                 1 every
                                              3 years                5.5 years

Source: Ned Davis Research, 02/01/1948 to 31/12/2008.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The UK Stock Market is represented
by the MSCI United Kingdom Index. The MSCI United Kingdom Index is an unmanaged
index and cannot be invested into directly.
RES-4011B-U FEB 2009 Page 2 of 2
Missing just 50 days with the highest returns since                                        How the Bear Can Help You
1968 would have wiped out all of your gains. Even                                          Bear markets provide long-term investors with the
missing the best 10 days over 40 years would have                                          opportunity to buy quality investments at a discount.
reduced the annual gain from an investment in the                                          The price you pay for an investment matters. Why?
FTSE All-Share from 6.6% to just 4.5%.                                                     Generally, the lower the price you pay for a quality
                                                                                           investment, the higher your potential investment
MISSING THE BEST DAYS                                                                      return during the long term. This advice also holds
Annual Return for an Investment in the FTSE All-Share                                      true for market dips and corrections.

       Days Excluded                         Average Annual Return*
                                                                                           Here’s one way to think about unsettling markets:
                0                                             6.6%                         Market declines return investments to their rightful
               10                                             4.5                          owners — those who understand what they own, and
               20                                             3.1                          why they own it. Although some market declines can
               30                                             1.8                          be painfully long, the vast majority of bear markets are
               40                                             0.7                          relatively short — around 16 months on average. This
               50                                         –   0.2                          is compared to the average bull market, which lasts
               60                                         –   1.1
                                                                                           four-and-a-half years.* Remember, bear markets tend
               70                                         –   1.9
                                                                                           to recover just as abruptly as they start.
               80                                         –   2.7
               90                                         –   3.4
              100                                         –   4.1
                                                                                           Take Action to Survive the Bear
                                                                                           Again, we believe your success as an investor may
 Source: Bloomberg, Edward Jones. FTSE All-Share Index, 31/12/1968 to 31/12/2008
                                                                                           depend on your actions during a market decline. Make
*Dividends not included. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The FTSE
 All-Share is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested into directly.
                                                                                           an appointment with your Edward Jones financial
                                                                                           adviser to develop a portfolio that can help you reach
                                                                                           your long-term goals through rising and falling markets.
Many also will argue that if you had missed just a
handful of the worst days, returns would have been
better. This is true, but predicting the worst days can
                                                                                           Kate Warne, Ph.D., CFA
be even more difficult than predicting the best ones.
                                                                                           Market Strategist
Many times the best days actually immediately follow
the worst ones.
                                                                                           * Ned   Davis
Either way, you’re trying to time the market, and it’s
almost impossible to do that consistently. Instead,
we think staying invested throughout market ups and
downs is a better way for you to help achieve your
long-term goals.




Edward Jones Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered in England and Wales
No. 3403976. 11 Westferry Circus, Canary Wharf, London, E14 4HH.




                                                                                                                                          www.edwardjones.com

Dont Fear The Bear

  • 1.
    RES-4011B-U FEB 2009Page 1 of 2 UK STRATEGY REPORT DON’T FEAR THE BEAR When share prices begin falling dramatically, it can appear that your only option is to sell in order to limit losses. We disagree. As a long-term investor, the difference between success and failure may be determined by your actions during a stock market decline. No one can predict a bear market, but we believe Keep a Cool Head. Try to Stay Calm. remaining focused on your investment strategy is the Bear markets are usually quite frightening. The stock best way to weather one. It’s called a bear market market decline can be dramatic. It almost seems like because it resembles a bear’s attack — rearing up on there is no end in sight and you’ll hear many predictions its hind legs and swiping its paws downward. A bear about how much lower shares could go. market is a sharp, prolonged decline in share prices, usually 20% or more, almost always triggered by In every bear market, the rebound has been unexpected unexpected events or economic conditions. As a result, and has started when the outlook appeared bleak. In investors can frequently be caught off guard and bear markets, investors should keep a cool head and become susceptible to the anxiety caused by the a steady hand and try not to be swayed by extreme reports of gloom and uncertainty. predictions of doom and gloom. It’s unlikely that you will ever meet a real bear face to Make No Sudden Moves. Stand Your Ground. face. However, if you’re a long-term investor, it’s almost You should never jump into or jump out of the stock a certainty that you will experience a bear market. Our market. We believe it’s almost always a bad idea to advice is this: Stock market declines are normal, happen make a long-term investment decision in reaction to frequently and are not a reason to sell quality investments. short-term market fluctuation. If your portfolio contains quality investments that are well-diversified, our best Our advice for surviving a bear market is almost identical advice is to stay the course during market declines. to survivalist Peter Kummerfeldt’s advice if you come face to face with a real bear: During and immediately after market declines, the temptation almost always exists to sell quality share ‘When faced with a real bear, keep a cool head. Try to and bond investments, and change your strategy. stay calm. Do not yell, scream, kick or fight. Don’t panic. Commodities, investments proclaiming to hedge Make no sudden moves. Stand your ground. Never try market risk, property and other alternatives often to outrun a bear; it will only make matters worse. The become popular after a poor stock market performance. injuries that occur are more a function of what the human does to resist than what the bear is capable of doing.’ Rather than chasing the best performing investments, stay committed to your long-term strategy. Although DECLINES IN THE UK STOCK MARKET past performance is not an indication of future results, 1948 – 2008 over the long term an investment in the stock market Dip Correction Bear has historically performed well. However, investors 5% of More 10% or More 20% or More who try to predict when to get into and out of shares can pay a severe penalty for not being fully invested Number 52 21 11 when the market is rising. Per Year About 1 1 every 1 every 3 years 5.5 years Source: Ned Davis Research, 02/01/1948 to 31/12/2008. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The UK Stock Market is represented by the MSCI United Kingdom Index. The MSCI United Kingdom Index is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested into directly.
  • 2.
    RES-4011B-U FEB 2009Page 2 of 2 Missing just 50 days with the highest returns since How the Bear Can Help You 1968 would have wiped out all of your gains. Even Bear markets provide long-term investors with the missing the best 10 days over 40 years would have opportunity to buy quality investments at a discount. reduced the annual gain from an investment in the The price you pay for an investment matters. Why? FTSE All-Share from 6.6% to just 4.5%. Generally, the lower the price you pay for a quality investment, the higher your potential investment MISSING THE BEST DAYS return during the long term. This advice also holds Annual Return for an Investment in the FTSE All-Share true for market dips and corrections. Days Excluded Average Annual Return* Here’s one way to think about unsettling markets: 0 6.6% Market declines return investments to their rightful 10 4.5 owners — those who understand what they own, and 20 3.1 why they own it. Although some market declines can 30 1.8 be painfully long, the vast majority of bear markets are 40 0.7 relatively short — around 16 months on average. This 50 – 0.2 is compared to the average bull market, which lasts 60 – 1.1 four-and-a-half years.* Remember, bear markets tend 70 – 1.9 to recover just as abruptly as they start. 80 – 2.7 90 – 3.4 100 – 4.1 Take Action to Survive the Bear Again, we believe your success as an investor may Source: Bloomberg, Edward Jones. FTSE All-Share Index, 31/12/1968 to 31/12/2008 depend on your actions during a market decline. Make *Dividends not included. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The FTSE All-Share is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested into directly. an appointment with your Edward Jones financial adviser to develop a portfolio that can help you reach your long-term goals through rising and falling markets. Many also will argue that if you had missed just a handful of the worst days, returns would have been better. This is true, but predicting the worst days can Kate Warne, Ph.D., CFA be even more difficult than predicting the best ones. Market Strategist Many times the best days actually immediately follow the worst ones. * Ned Davis Either way, you’re trying to time the market, and it’s almost impossible to do that consistently. Instead, we think staying invested throughout market ups and downs is a better way for you to help achieve your long-term goals. Edward Jones Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered in England and Wales No. 3403976. 11 Westferry Circus, Canary Wharf, London, E14 4HH. www.edwardjones.com