MarketTrend Advisors - Coping With Bear Markets 023009
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This presentation provides a historical review of the returns of prior bull markets and bear markets and recommends an active investment strategy to capture gains and avoid losing money during secular bear markets.
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This document discusses contra investing in cyclical stocks. It begins with disclosures about the author and purpose of the presentation. Then it discusses that successful investing requires understanding business, market and economic cycles. It emphasizes having patience and overcoming fear and greed when contra investing. The rest of the document provides examples of case studies of successful contra investments in cyclical sectors like metals, paper, polymers etc. It also lists currently in-favor and not-in-favor sectors for contra investing opportunities.
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La presentación corresponde al evento:
English version: https://youtu.be/JxOIJmCO1Ao
Versión española: https://youtu.be/owp_txi4erU
Pavel Begun (cofundador de 3G Capital Management) es entrevistado en Value School por Carmen Pérez Baguena, analista senior de Cobas Asset Management.
Pavel y su socio conforman el equipo de análisis de 3G Capital, porque afirma que cuantos menos sean en el proceso de investigación, más pueden controlar el núcleo de decisión.
El entrevistado nos cuenta su trayectoria profesional, que empezó a los 11 años vendiendo fresas y manzanas en un mercado. Después emprendió varios proyectos, hasta llegar a Estados Unidos con 20 años, donde además de continuar con sus iniciativas empresariales se introdujo en el mundo de la inversión. Pavel asegura que simultanear ambas cosas le ha permitido mejorar en los dos campos.
También nos desvela que su filosofía principalmente se centra en buscar las 3G (Good): “buen negocio, buena gestión y buen precio”. Parece una máxima muy sencilla, pero realmente “es un trabajo muy duro y complejo”.
¿Cómo define un buen negocio? Negocios sencillos de entender, con una trayectoria registrada de sostenibilidad en liderazgo, negocios que den buenos retornos sobre el capital invertido (15-20% o superiores). Esto puede aplicarse a cualquier sector, con algunas excepciones. Por ejemplo, las prendas de moda, porque es un sector muy cambiante.
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La presentación corresponde al evento:
English version: https://youtu.be/JxOIJmCO1Ao
Versión española: https://youtu.be/owp_txi4erU
Pavel Begun (cofundador de 3G Capital Management) es entrevistado en Value School por Carmen Pérez Baguena, analista senior de Cobas Asset Management.
Pavel y su socio conforman el equipo de análisis de 3G Capital, porque afirma que cuantos menos sean en el proceso de investigación, más pueden controlar el núcleo de decisión.
El entrevistado nos cuenta su trayectoria profesional, que empezó a los 11 años vendiendo fresas y manzanas en un mercado. Después emprendió varios proyectos, hasta llegar a Estados Unidos con 20 años, donde además de continuar con sus iniciativas empresariales se introdujo en el mundo de la inversión. Pavel asegura que simultanear ambas cosas le ha permitido mejorar en los dos campos.
También nos desvela que su filosofía principalmente se centra en buscar las 3G (Good): “buen negocio, buena gestión y buen precio”. Parece una máxima muy sencilla, pero realmente “es un trabajo muy duro y complejo”.
¿Cómo define un buen negocio? Negocios sencillos de entender, con una trayectoria registrada de sostenibilidad en liderazgo, negocios que den buenos retornos sobre el capital invertido (15-20% o superiores). Esto puede aplicarse a cualquier sector, con algunas excepciones. Por ejemplo, las prendas de moda, porque es un sector muy cambiante.
¿Cuál sería el buen precio de compra y de venta? ¿Cómo intentan minimizar el riesgo? Carmen Pérez Baguena no se deja nada en el tintero a la hora de preguntar. Al finalizar su entrevista, comienza la ronda de preguntas de los asistentes y de los conectados vía streaming.
Libros recomendados:
Armas, Gérmenes Y Acero (ENSAYO-CIENCIA) (Jared Diamond)
What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought (Keith E. Stanovich)
La riqueza y la pobreza de las naciones (David Landed)
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John and Betty Smith, aged 60 and 58 respectively, have 4 children and 9 grandchildren. They recently sold their business and are looking to retire. They have $6 million in total assets including $5 million in investments. Their annual expenses total $280,000. They want to ensure a financially secure retirement while funding their grandchildren's education and other goals. A proposed asset allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is projected to meet their needs with an 8.3% expected annual return.
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This presentation tries to give a perspective on understanding cyclicals. Understanding of business and market cycles. With examples from Indian market. This was presented at CFA society, Delhi on Dec 14, 2019 and at FOF, PPFAS on Dec 20, 2019
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Dbp protect trifold_brochure
The document discusses an investment advisory firm that aims to:
1. Design investment plans tailored to clients' life goals
2. Build plans using academic research
3. Protect clients' futures through discipline and structure
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Excerpt:
Stocks are simply shares of ownership in a
corporation. Thus anyone owning stocks or shares of
a company is called the company’s shareholder or
stockholder. Being a part-owner, you partake in the
performance, growth, earnings and profits, as well as
losses, of these companies.
The stock market is the place where people
converge to buy and sell shares or stocks through an
authorized stockbroker. That means once you have
your broker and enough money to buy stocks, you
can readily start investing in the stock market and
brand yourself as a noble shareholder of giant
fantastic companies.
In the Philippines, the Philippine stock market is the
place where you can invest in Philippine Stock
Exchange (PSE) - listed companies. And only those
people or firms accredited by PSE as authorized
brokers can participate directly in trading and putting
buy or sell orders.
Why Invest? To make your hard-earned money
work even harder for you
Investing enables one’s savings to grow or
appreciate to achieve various
long term financial goals. It is
said to be the most effective
way of building personal
wealth and attaining future
financial
security
for
oneself. It also safeguards
one’s capital against
inflation which erodes
the purchasing power
of your money if it’s not
invested.
Why stock market?
Because history says
so!
The fact is that stock
market is not the only
type of investment present
in the capital market. But history has proven that
nvesting in the stock market over the long-term has
outperformed all fixed-income instruments, plus it
offers good protection against inflation. The market
undeniably continuously experiences highs and lows,
dumps and trumps, and blows and dips, but these
short-term pictures are just tiny pixels compared to
the general uptrend portrait recognized in the long
run.
Who can invest? Everyone can!
Anyone can invest in the stock market. It is a readily
available choice of financial vehicle for those who
want to make their hard-earned money work even
harder for them. Millionaires or not, everyone can
earn in the same battle field.
Everyone motivated can do it.
When should you invest? When you’re ready!
That’s when you have money you won’t need for
your basic expenses, which you would otherwise put
in a bank. It’s better if it’s made available in a longer
time as it allows the investment to ride through the
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Excerpt:
Stocks are simply shares of ownership in a
corporation. Thus anyone owning stocks or shares of
a company is called the company’s shareholder or
stockholder. Being a part-owner, you partake in the
performance, growth, earnings and profits, as well as
losses, of these companies.
The stock market is the place where people
converge to buy and sell shares or stocks through an
authorized stockbroker. That means once you have
your broker and enough money to buy stocks, you
can readily start investing in the stock market and
brand yourself as a noble shareholder of giant
fantastic companies.
In the Philippines, the Philippine stock market is the
place where you can invest in Philippine Stock
Exchange (PSE) - listed companies. And only those
people or firms accredited by PSE as authorized
brokers can participate directly in trading and putting
buy or sell orders.
Why Invest? To make your hard-earned money
work even harder for you
Investing enables one’s savings to grow or
appreciate to achieve various
long term financial goals. It is
said to be the most effective
way of building personal
wealth and attaining future
financial
security
for
oneself. It also safeguards
one’s capital against
inflation which erodes
the purchasing power
of your money if it’s not
invested.
Why stock market?
Because history says
so!
The fact is that stock
market is not the only
type of investment present
in the capital market. But history has proven that
nvesting in the stock market over the long-term has
outperformed all fixed-income instruments, plus it
offers good protection against inflation. The market
undeniably continuously experiences highs and lows,
dumps and trumps, and blows and dips, but these
short-term pictures are just tiny pixels compared to
the general uptrend portrait recognized in the long
run.
Who can invest? Everyone can!
Anyone can invest in the stock market. It is a readily
available choice of financial vehicle for those who
want to make their hard-earned money work even
harder for them. Millionaires or not, everyone can
earn in the same battle field.
Everyone motivated can do it.
When should you invest? When you’re ready!
That’s when you have money you won’t need for
your basic expenses, which you would otherwise put
in a bank. It’s better if it’s made available in a longer
time as it allows the investment to ride through the
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This document provides a valuation of Costco stock using several models. It begins by calculating the discount rate using the CAPM model, determining a risk free rate of 3.75% and market risk premium of 3.1% based on economic indicators. It then estimates Costco's beta to be 0.9 based on its defensive nature and stable earnings. This yields a discount rate of 6.54%. It then provides inputs for the valuation models such as a long term growth rate of 4.75% and dividend of $1.80. The document will value Costco using the dividend discount model, capitalized earnings model, and H-model.
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This document provides an introduction to investing and discusses several key concepts:
1) It is impossible to consistently predict when markets will rise and fall, so the best strategy is to invest regularly over time through ups and downs to benefit from pound cost averaging.
2) While it is difficult to determine if markets are cheap or expensive, standard valuation metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio can provide some guidance.
3) All investments carry risk, and higher potential returns generally require taking on more risk. It is important to understand the risks and reduce risk exposure when markets are highly valued.
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This document provides an introduction to becoming a successful investor. It discusses several key points:
1) Markets are difficult to predict in the short-term, but following a strategy of regular savings and rebalancing can help reduce risks over the long run.
2) Risk and potential returns are correlated - higher risks allow for higher potential returns but do not guarantee them. Understanding risks is important.
3) Diversification through asset allocation and collective funds can help manage risks. Selecting funds based on manager performance is also discussed.
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1) Markets are difficult to predict in the short-term, but following a strategy of regular savings and rebalancing can help reduce risks over the long run.
2) Risk and potential returns are correlated - higher risks allow for higher potential returns but do not guarantee them. Understanding risks is important.
3) Diversification through asset allocation and collective funds can help manage risks. Selecting funds based on manager performance is also discussed.
[EN] Column / MA Fears and fragility / Januari 2016
- Market volatility has increased at the start of 2016 due to worries over slowing Chinese growth, geopolitical tensions, and falling oil prices. While much bad news is priced in, the author prefers a cautious positioning.
- Fears from 2015, such as concerns about China's economy, geopolitics, and low oil prices, are again impacting markets. However, divergence in central bank policies and improved conditions in developed market labor markets and peripheral European economies create a different environment than last year.
- Due to limited growth and profit prospects alongside not yet extremely cautious sentiment, the author advocates a modest risk stance for asset allocation.
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Target Retirement Income Planning
A Target Retirement Income Plan is a nonqualified, supplemental, after-tax executive retirement benefit program that changes the focus from return on investment to certainty of predictable income in retirement.
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The information contained in this presentation is for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Portfolio perspectives-greatest lesson-part2-0813
Active managers have generally not outperformed the market in either bull or bear markets. During the 2008 financial crisis, actively managed funds underperformed the S&P 500 index by an average of 1.67% on average. Studies from 2008-2012 also found that the majority of active managers failed to outperform their benchmarks across various market categories. While markets have historically delivered positive returns, it is typically a small group of top-performing stocks that drive those returns, making it difficult for managers to consistently pick winners. Diversification can help reduce risk and volatility compared to investing only in stocks, as seen during the 1973-1976 and 2007-2011 periods where a diversified portfolio lost less than a pure stock portfolio.
Summer Intern Project - Grace Chmiel
The document analyzes whether investors remain psychologically scarred from the 2008-2009 financial crisis in a way that has disrupted their normal assessment of risk and reward. It finds that investors exhibit several psychological constraints, including heuristics, overconfidence, and loss aversion. It predicts that as a result, the "wall of worry" phase of the bull market will last longer than usual, economic activity will be slower to recover, portfolio models may misjudge returns, interest rates will stay low for longer, and equities may underperform bonds for an extended period. Investors will also be slow to reallocate back into equities.
Tamohara investment newsletter April 2015
The newsletter discusses volatility in investment portfolios and argues that it should be seen as an opportunity rather than a risk. It presents evidence that volatility decreases significantly with increased investment time horizons and that the primary risk for long-term investors is the permanent loss of capital rather than temporary price fluctuations. The newsletter advocates for focusing on economic fundamentals over 3-5 year periods and distinguishing noise from signals when identifying investment opportunities created by market volatility.
Class Investing Basics
The document discusses various types of investments including stocks, bonds, cash, and mutual funds. It provides details on the sources of profit for each type, how they work, their level of risk, and long-term returns. The document also covers concepts like asset allocation, diversification, inflation, and the importance of starting to invest early.
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This document discusses three investors who achieved billion-dollar fortunes through successful investing strategies:
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- John Paulson made $20 billion for his firm during the financial crisis by correctly betting against the US housing market and financial stocks.
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The document provides an explanation for why long-term investing in assets is recommended over cash or inflation. It discusses diversifying investments across asset classes to reduce risk and increase returns. Passive funds are preferred over active funds due to higher costs and lack of evidence that active funds consistently outperform indexes. Risk is reduced by combining low-correlated assets from different categories in portfolios tailored to individual risk tolerances.
Planning Strategies Q410
This document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation on successful planning strategies for life and investments. It discusses Barry Mendelson's background and experience in financial services. It also summarizes Just Plans Etc., the firm he founded, which provides financial planning and investment management. The presentation agenda covers investment planning, personal planning, and charitable giving strategies.
Aboslute Capital Univ. Presentation
1. The document discusses critical investor mistakes such as failing to establish an investment strategy, not devoting enough time to learning and research, and not diversifying assets.
2. It provides data showing that while stocks have averaged higher returns than inflation over the long run, individual investors have not achieved the same returns due to poor timing of investments and emotional reactions to market fluctuations.
3. The presentation emphasizes the importance of risk management, adapting portfolios to changing market conditions, diversifying across asset classes and investment styles, and working with a financial advisor.
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The document summarizes key topics discussed in a seminar on financial empowerment for educators, including common financial questions from young couples, kids, and about financial security, estate planning, sources of income in retirement, lessons for lifetime investing, and tips for investing strategies.
Tamohara investment newsletter September 2015
The document is a monthly newsletter from Tamohara Investment Managers discussing market volatility and corrections. It notes that corrections of 5-20% are normal even during bull markets. While markets correcting can worry investors in the short term, focusing on long term fundamentals is better than reacting to short term movements. Current market conditions do not show signs of euphoria seen late in past bull markets. Despite volatility, Indian markets are positioned for growth supported by stable macros, improving governance, and transitioning to consumption-driven growth in China. Investors are advised to think long term and do less reacting to daily news and movements.
Investments For Life
The document discusses principles of behavioral finance and long-term investing. It notes that investors tend to be overconfident and influenced by short-term gains. Successful long-term investing requires discipline, focusing on asset allocation and diversification, and ignoring short-term noise and market hype. The key is developing a personalized investment policy and sticking to a plan through different market conditions.
Investor Education
1. The document provides advice on investing in the stock market, emphasizing the importance of educating oneself first before investing.
2. It discusses Warren Buffett's value investing approach and methodology, noting his emphasis on assessing a company's intrinsic value and competitive advantage.
3. The document outlines various factors to consider when analyzing companies and selecting stocks for investment, such as earnings, growth prospects, and market trends in different sectors.
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Investment Insights, October 2017
Bear Market Survival Guide
A historical look at bear markets and economic contractions, and the resulting rebounds.
There is always a reason to sell
The document compares the performance of two investment portfolios over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 that experienced significant market volatility and events. A portfolio consisting of 65% stocks and 35% bonds outperformed an S&P 500 portfolio, achieving an annualized return of 5.64% compared to 4.06% for the S&P 500 portfolio. The moderate portfolio also experienced less risk. By 2015, the moderate portfolio maintained a value of $375,539 after withdrawing $503,922 for income, while the S&P 500 portfolio was depleted. The document advocates for global diversification and maintaining a long-term perspective to achieve investment goals.
Hyre Weekly Commentary
- The Federal Reserve announced it would sell short-term Treasury securities and buy longer-term securities to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which succeeded in lowering bond yields. However, the stock market declined 6.4% as fears grew of a Greek default and slowing global economic growth.
- While price appreciation gets more attention, dividends have accounted for about one-third of stock market returns over 80 years and allowed investors to benefit in both rising and falling markets. Receiving and reinvesting dividends added an average of 2.3% annually to S&P 500 returns over the past decade.
Cornerstone Wealth Management - Bear Market Survival Guide
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
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Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
永久可查学历认证【微信：A575476】【美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证成绩单Offer】【微信：A575476】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：A575476】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：A575476】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
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- 1. Coping with Bear Markets Don Lansing, Chief Investment Officer
- 4. Secular Markets in More Detail
- 11. Follow the Trend: Invest in the Bull; Avoid the Bear
- 12. Or Be Aggressive and SHORT the BEAR
Editor's Notes
- Let’s begin by discussing the challenges individual investors face. Most of us have a pretty strong emotional component in our makeup. Unfortunately, these emotions are our greatest enemy when interacting with the stock market. I have a client who watches his portfolio every day – that’s not unusual, of course. And almost every day he has some comment to send me about it. When the market has a big up day, he wants to know why we don’t have more stocks and whether we should add some. Then, the market drops and he wants to know why we have so MANY stocks and whether we should sell some. This type of emotional reaction to the market wears the poor guy out (and sometimes me as well!). Indeed, even his doctor has told him to stop watching the market. But he seems unable to. Left to his own decisions, this fellow, who is a smart guy perfectly capable of investing well, would be jumping in and out of the market all the time. The results would be, and have been at times, disastrous for his portfolio. More unfortunately, many studies have found that my friend here is not the exception but the RULE when it comes to individual investors. Individuals react emotionally to the market and make their decisions accordingly. They overtrade, buy when they should sell, sell when they should buy, and so on. As a result, many of them give up in frustration as they fail to make any money in the stock market. This morning, I will present an investment strategy that tries to help us avoid these common problems. It’s a simple strategy that requires just a couple of rules and keeps you from suffering from years like 2008 will benefiting from the good years.