This document discusses predicting adoption curves for new mobile technologies. It notes that forecasts for adoption typically predict faster adoption than what actually occurs. Several examples are given of technologies like mobile TV, music, payments that were predicted to see faster adoption but saw limited usage. The document advocates identifying the problem and testing solutions with real customers on mobile devices to better understand if the solution solves the problem. It also recommends testing technology readiness and using researchers to help determine optimal pricing. The overall message is that mobile research is important to increase the chances of success for new mobile technologies and applications.

1. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
We can see the future
10 May 2016

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Topic:
"Understanding the mobile tech adoption
curve – what are the new opportunities for live,
in the moment, research approaches?"
What you will learn:
How to predict success and adoption curve of
new mobile technology.

3. About Me & Us

4. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
About DMI & Me
4
Magnus Jern, Swedish
Currently President DMI
International
Engineer, mathematician and a
passion for solving problems
Co-founder of 7 startups whereof
first 4 were too early and 3
successful exits
Good timing for mobile app trend
and data visualisation
Learned the hard way that we
need objective research

5. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
About DMI & Me
5
OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
MARKETING &
ENGAGEMENT
DEVELOPMENT
UX/UI DESIGN
& TESTING
BUSINESS
INSIGHTS AND
ANALYTICS
DISCOVERY, SERVICE
CONCEPT DESIGN
& INNOVATION
DMI International
Started as Golden Gekko in Europe
Early iPhone and Android apps with
100m+ downloads and $5Bn in
revenue for our clients
Thought leader in Mobile First, User
Centric and Data Driven Design
400+ Mobile Specialists
Clients incl. Virgin, Addison Lee,
Bombardier, O2, Vodafone, Tesco,
H&M, Ikea and Nike

6. Predicting adoption
of mobile technology

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How we forecast adoption vs what actually happens?
Forecast Actual
Conclusion: Technology adoption usually takes longer than
we forecast but when it happens it goes faster than we expect

8. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
Most enterprises and start-
ups are really bad at
predicting adoption of
products
Selfie-stick invented and
launched in 1985 was a
complete failure

9. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
Then (2005):
Mobile TV with Sky, CNN,
MTV and all-you-can-
consume music proposition
with Sony with huge
campaign.
< 5% of enabled users
signed up
Now:
Everyone consumes video
and music on mobile.
100m+ users
Insight: No testing was done on mobile
devices (and they weren’t ready)
Mobile TV & Music

10. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
Then (2011-2014):
Google and Paypal launched
mobile wallets/payments in
2011 followed by Apple in
2014.
Now:
Early trials but limited
recurring usage. Limited
customer benefits.
Starbucks most successful.
< 5% of enabled users
Insight: The solution to a problem is
not better than plastic (yet)
Mobile Payments

11. © 2016DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
The hardest
problem isn’t
technical.
It’s understanding the
problem so that you
can find a solution
that people will use.
But the technical solution is the most expensive

12. © 2015DMICONFIDENTIAL&PROPRIETARY
Project Duration
Cost of
Change
DevelopmentDiscovery & Concept
100x
It’s cheaper to throw away a post-it
“Changing requirements are 100x more expensive during the
end of a software project than the beginning.”
IEEE Report, 2014
12
Why research is so important

13. How to increase
the chance of success

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1. Identify/understand the problem

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2a. Does the solution really solve the problem?
Prototype and test on mobile devices with real customers.

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2b. Mobile Research Best Practice
1. Product feedback is at the centre of mobility - rate and
review (App store reviews can easily be manipulated)
2. Continuous feedback is key to success
3. Mobile research needs to be short and to the point (Virgin
example)

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3. Test the technology

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4. Test and decide optimal price point

19. How Mobile Research
can help

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Summary: Mobile Research
1. Understand and verify the problem
2. Test the solution on the target device with real customers
3. Be realistic about the technology readiness
4. Use professional researchers generally and specifically for
pricing

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