The document discusses human population growth and distribution globally and in different countries/regions: - It provides data on the current populations of the top 10 most populated countries, as well as annual population changes of countries gaining and losing the most people through migration. - Key factors affecting population growth rates and the total fertility rate (TFR) across countries are also examined, such as education/employment levels, urbanization, and access to family planning resources.

1. Human Population Growth
& Distribution
Chapter 11

2. I. Population
A. Pop. Size = (Birth + Immigration) – (Death + Emigration)
*Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
1. Demography: Study of human population(s)
a. Crude Birth Rate
b. Crude Death Rate
# Births in 1,000 People per Year
# Deaths in 1,000 People per Year

3. B. Rate of Population Change (%)
(Crude Birth Rate – Crude Death Rate) x 100
1. Current Population Growth Rate: 1.1%
Birth Rate – Death Rate x 100
1000
Birth Rate – Death Rate
10
Or…
Or…
Record: 2.2% in 1963
*Use the Rule of 70 to calculate doubling time for these rates

4. C. Population Distribution
China 1,343,239,923
India 1,205,073,612
United States 313,847,465
Indonesia 248,216,193
Brazil 205,716,890
Pakistan 190,291,129
Nigeria 170,123,740
Bangladesh 161,083,804
Russia 138,082,178
Japan 127,368,088
Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2012
www.census.gov

5. Mexico -280,000
China -230,000
Tanzania -180,000
Congo (Kinshasa) -150,000
Philippines -130,000
Pakistan -120,000
Kazakhstan -100,000
Bangladesh -100,000
India -80,000
Burma -80,000
United States 1,040,000
Afghanistan 300,000
Canada 190,000
Germany 180,000
Russia 140,000
United Kingdom 130,000
Italy 120,000
Singapore 120,000
Australia 80,000
East Timor 50,000
Top ten net senders Top ten net receivers
The Top Net Senders and Receivers of Migration: 2002
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base.

6. D. Fertility
1. Replacement Level Fertility
Number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves
* It is slightly greater than 2 in most places. Why?
*Would population growth stop if every couple in the world
suddenly only reproduced at Replacement Level Fertility?
Population Momentum

7. 2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Estimated average number of kids a woman will have
during childbearing years (15-49)
* Africa has the highest: 5.2 children/woman

8. 3. Factors Affecting Birth Rate
• Child Labor
• Cost to raise and educate kids
• Education & employment (especially for woman)
• Urbanization
• Infant Mortality
• Average marriage age
• Average age when woman have 1st child
• Pension availability
• Religion/Culture

9. 4. Factors Affecting Death Rate
• Food supply & distribution of nutrition
• Medical technology & health care/insurance
• Hygiene/sanitation
• Access to clean water
5. Infant mortality rate (#deaths/1000 born) is best indicator of
quality of life for a society
6. From 1950-2000, global average life expectancy increased from
48 to 67 years

21. II. Age Structure
A. Age Structure Diagram
1. Shows the number of people in each age cohort
in a population
a. Pre-Productive
2. Three age categories:
b. Reproductive
c. Post-Productive
(0-14 years old)
(14-44 years old)
(44 and up)

22. Post-Productive
Ages
Pre-Productive
Ages

23. 3. Baby Booms (or conversely, drops in birthrate)
* Can be followed through the years
* Even if the birthrate drops, there can be an “echo boom”
when the baby boomers reach reproductive age.
B. Negative effects of population decline
1. Gradual Decline = OK
2. Rapid Decline = BAD!
a. Large population over 60… health care & other services
b. Loss of active work force

26. III. Avoiding “The Population Bomb”
A. Important questions to ask…
“The Population Bomb” ~Paul Ehrlich (1971)
* By 2050 we will reach 9,000,000,000
1. What is the earth’s carrying capacity for humans?
-if every lives like Americans?
-if every lives like Haitians?
2. What is the earth’s optimum population of humans?

27. B. Demographic Transition
1. Pre-Industrial Stage (ex. native jungle inhabitants)
Population changes as a nation “evolves”
a. High birth rate and death rate
2. Transitional Stage (Ex. Africa, Latin America, S.E. Asia)
b. “Primitive”
a. Industrialized – food production & health care improve
b. Death rate decreases while birth rate remains high
*Rapid population growth (2-3%)

28. 3. Industrial Stage (ex. U.S.A.)
a. Birth rate drops, approaches death rate
4. Post Industrial Stage (ex. Germany, Sweden, maybe U.S. soon)
b. Modern industrialization increases
c. Population growth slows and steadies
a. Birth rate decreases to equal death rate
b. Population decreases
* As societies “mature”, their population growth stabilizes
* Problem with this model: promotes the idea that
industrialization fixes all for all cultures

29. Pre-Industrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial

30. C. Family Planning
1. Education to help couples plan # of kids they have
a. Birth spacing
2. Goals/Advantages
b. Health care for mom and baby
c. Birth control
a. Reduce TFR
b. Reduce abortions
c. Increase use of contraceptives
d. Decrease in pregnancy-related deaths

31. D. Empower Women
* Increase education & civil rights… they’ll have less kids!
1. India
E. Economic Incentives
* Taxes, food, etc… to encourage fewer kids per couple
F. Case Studies (pg. 259-260)
2. China
• Many couples have 1st kid later in life
• Access to free sterilization for married couples
• Cut TFR by 50% in past 30 years
• Incentives for couples who pledge to have only 1 kid
• Worked because of dictatorship

32. G. Urban Sprawl
Urban: town, city, suburbs with at least 2500 people
Rural: towns with less than 2500 people
1. Urban Growth occurs due to:
a. Lure of jobs
b. Entertainment
c. Religious/cultural freedom
d. Decline of agricultural jobs
In the United States….
1850- 19 “large cities”
2001- 14 “large cities” & 8 “megacities”
“Large City” >1 million
“Megacity” >10 million

33. 2. Urbanization increasing most rapidly in developing countries
a. Poor air quality
b. Few sewers
c. High unemployment rate
d. High crime rate
Ex. Mexico City
3. Megapolis: When neighboring cities sprawl and meet
Ex. Bowash …Boston to Washington DC

39. 3. Advantages & Disadvantages of Urbanization (pg. 264-265)
4. Transportation (Private vs. Mass Transit)
a. Private (automobiles) pros & cons
b. Alternatives to cars:
- Scooters
- Bicycles (Most efficient means of transport…ever)
- Buses
- Heavy & Light Rail Trains
- Rapid Rail Trains (200mph! …record 357.2!)

41. H. Land Use Planning
1. Zoning:
a. Certain plots of land designated for certain uses
ex. Use best soil areas for farming
b. Decide when/where to situate industry
d. Promote development to generate tax $$$
- Cycle causes need for more infrastructure & more taxes
- Increases urban sprawl
- Generates tax dollars

42. 2. Smart Growth
a. Urban development that…
- produces environmentally sustainable urban areas
- preserves naturally/ecologically important areas
- prevents urban sprawl
b. Based on 19th Century Town Planning
- Shopping areas within walking distance of residences
- Promotes people, pedestrians first, not cars
- Promotes mass transport
- Depends less on cars
* This can be seen in newly refurbished Long Island “downtowns”
Post Avenue, Westbury
Hillside Avenue, East Williston

43. I. About the World Bank
1. Special agency with the UN formed in 1944
2. Goal: to foster economic development of poor countries via
massive loans at low interest rates to increase their GNPs
3. Financed Large Scale Projects
a) Electricity production plants
b) Transportation (mostly roads and cars)
c) Mechanization of Agriculture
- fossil fuel use (big equipment)
- inorganic fertilizers
- new crop varieties (more productive)

44. More About the World Bank
5. World Bank Reform
a) Many nations are now cancelling debt of poor countries
b) Ecologists and cultural specialists are now working with
engineers and economists to develop from the bottom up

45. What if…
The World
was a
Global Village
of
100 people?
(Based on 2008 population of 6.7 billion)

46. How many would be from a less
developed county?
89

47. What would their per capita
annual gross income be?
$3,580. That’s 89 people out of 100
making less than $10 a day!
48 would make less than $2 a day!!!
20 would live on less than $1 a day!!!!!

48. How much would the remaining
11 make per year?
$22,060.
Does your family make more than that
per year?
Per month?

49. How many?
Asians
Europeans
Africans
South Americans
(including Carribeans)
North American
(including Canadians)
61
12
13
9
5

50. 75 Non- White
25 White

51. 60 would live within 62
miles of a coastline
50 would rely in some way on coastal or
marine habitats for food, building sites,
transportation, recreation, and waste
disposal

52. • 48 would lack access to basic sanitation
• 47 would be urban dwellers
• 29 would believe in witchcraft
• 24 would live in susbstandard housing or have
no housing at all
• 16 would lack access to clean drinking water
• 16 would be unable to read and write
• 14 would be suffering from malnutrition
• 4.5 would be U.S. citizens
• 1 would be infected with HIV/AIDS
• 1 would be near death and 1 near birth
• 1 would have a college education
• Half the village’s wealth would be in the hands of 6
people, most of whom would be Americans