This document provides information about seed demand forecasting and breeder seed production planning. It defines demand forecasting as anticipating future seed quantity needs based on understanding consumer behavior and other factors. It then lists various factors that affect demand forecasts, such as cultivated acreage, seeding rates, and weather conditions. The document outlines the process for breeder seed production planning in India, which involves indent collection from seed agencies, compilation of demands by various departments, and allocation of production responsibilities to organizations like state agricultural universities and ICAR institutions. It notes there has been a steady increase in breeder seed production over the years.

1. Sub.:- Principles of Seed Technology
Course No. :- APB- 5221
Credit hours:- 3(1+2)
Lec. Topic :- Seed Demand forecasting.
Presented by:-
Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya
Raipur, C.G.
Presented by:-
Lt. Roshan Parihar, Asstt. Professor (GPB)
Deptt. of Genetics & Plant Breeding
BTC College of Agriculture & Research Station
,Sarkanda, Bilaspur,(CG)-495001

2. Demand forecasting of seed
Qu. What is demand forecasting?
• Ans.It is an anticipation of
required seed quantity on the open
market by understanding the behavior of
consumers and other factors.
• The main principle lying under the• The main principle lying under the
forecast should be that seed supply kept
pace with seed demand (both present &
future) in terms of quantity ,quality
,price , place and time.
• Planned seed programme would avoid
gluts and shortages and ensures stable
prices and profits.

3. सवाल। ा है मांग का पूवानुमान?
• उ र:। यह उपभो ाओं और अ कारकों के
वहार को समझने के ारा खुले बाजार पर
आव क बीज मा ा की ाशा है।
• पूवानुमान के तहत मु िस ांत यह होना चािहए िक• पूवानुमान के तहत मु िस ांत यह होना चािहए िक
बीज की आपूित मा ा, गुणव ा, मू , थान और
समय के संदभ म बीज की मांग (वतमान और भिव
दोनों) के साथ तालमेल बनाए रखे।
• िनयोिजत बीज काय म चमक और कमी से बचने
और थर कीमतों और मुनाफे को सुिनि त करता है।

4. Following factors affecting demand forecasts.
a. Total cultivated acreages.
b. Seed rate used for sowing.
c. Period of sowing.
d. Quality replacement period of varieties.
e. Impact of extension efforts for the
promotion of new varieties ,production
techniques and their future plans.
promotion of new varieties ,production
techniques and their future plans.
f. Current acreages of HYV.
g. Amount of improved seed sold on last
year.
h. Farmers preferred varieties,bag size,kind
of packing,quality and price.
i. Number and size of competitiors.

5. मांग के पूवानुमान को भािवत करने वाले कारक।
• कु ल खेती की गई एकड़।
• बुवाई के िलए इ ेमाल की जाने वाली बीज दर।
• बुआई की अविध।
• िक ों की गुणव ा ित थापन की अविध।
• नई िक ों, उ ादन तकनीकों और उनकी भिव की
योजनाओं के चार के िलए िव ार यासों का भाव।
• नई िक ों, उ ादन तकनीकों और उनकी भिव की
योजनाओं के चार के िलए िव ार यासों का भाव।
• HYV की वतमान एकड़।
• बीते वष बेची गई उ त बीजों की मा ा।
• िकसानों ने िक ों, बैग के आकार, पैिकं ग के कार,
गुणव ा और कीमत को ाथिमकता दी।
• ितयोिगयों की सं ा और आकार।

6. i. Kind of publicity is important factor.
j. Climate of the area where seed is
being marketed.
k. High quality seed demand exist on
areas of high fertility and irrigation.
l. Farmers maintain the purity and quality
status of seed during the reproductive
process on self pollinating crops for
the period of 3-4 years.
process on self pollinating crops for
the period of 3-4 years.
m. In such case saved seed are replaced
by every 3-4 year by certified seeds.
n. Seeds of high quality seeds demands
are only 25-30 % per year on areas of
high production.

7. • चार का कार मह पूण कारक है।
• े की जलवायु जहाँ बीज का िवपणन िकया जा
रहा है।
• उ उवरता और िसंचाई के े ों म उ गुणव ा
वाले बीज की मांग मौजूद ह
• 3-4 साल की अविध के िलए आ परागण वाली
फसलों पर जनन ि या के दौरान िकसान बीजफसलों पर जनन ि या के दौरान िकसान बीज
की शु ता और गुणव ा की थित बनाए रखते ह।
• ऐसे मामलों म मािणत बीजों को हर 3-4 साल म
मािणत बीजों ारा बदल िदया जाता है।
• उ गुणव ा वाले बीजों की मांग उ उ ादन
वाले े ों पर ित वष के वल 25-30% है।

8. o. Seeds are purchased every year on
exceptional cases when seeds
reproduced during the cycles are prone
to lose the seed viability on the climatic
area wherever it produced.
p. Hybrids are purchased every year.
q. True value of varieties must be
assessed on the basis of market feed
back.
r. Dealers must make periodic survey ofr. Dealers must make periodic survey of
the market areas, to determine the
market potential, at least one season in
advance.
s. Dealer place advance order to the
production section to organize an
effective production programme.
t. Dealer however not held the exact
amount of such orders.

9. • हर साल बीज खरीदे जाते ह।
• असाधारण मामलों पर जब च के दौरान बीज पुन: उ
होते ह, तो जहां भी इसका उ ादन होता है, जलवायु े
पर बीज वहायता खोने का खतरा होता है।
• हर साल हाइि ड खरीदे जाते ह। िक ों के सही मू का
आकलन माकट फीड बैक के आधार पर िकया जाना
चािहए।चािहए।
• ापा रयों को बाजार े ों का आविधक सव ण करना
चािहए, तािक बाजार की मता का िनधारण िकया जा
सके ।
• डीलर एक भावी उ ादन काय म आयोिजत करने के
िलए उ ादन अनुभाग को अि म आदेश देता है। डीलर ने
हालांिक ऐसे आदेशों की सही मा ा को नहीं रखा है।

10. Planning for Breeder Seed production.
• Breeder seed is the progeny of
nucleus seed of a variety and is
produced by the originating breeder
or by a sponsored breeder.
• Breeder seed production is the
mandate of the Indian Council of
Agricultural Research (ICAR) and isAgricultural Research (ICAR) and is
being undertaken with the help of;
– ICAR Research Institutions.
– National Research Centres .
– All India Coordinated Research Project
of different crops

11. – State Agricultural Universities (SAUs)
with centres established in different
States.
– Sponsored breeders recognized by
selected State Seed Corporations.
– Non-Governmental Organizations.
– ICAR also promotes sponsored breeder
seed production programme throughseed production programme through
the National Seeds Corporation (NSC) /
State Farms Corporation of India (SFCI),
State Seeds Corporation (SSCs), Krishi
Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) etc.
• There has been a steady increase
in the production of breeder seed
over the years.

12. • ीडर सीड एक िक के ू यस सीड्स की संतान
है और इसकी उ ि जनक ारा या एक ायोिजत
जनक ारा की जाती है।
• ीडर बीज उ ादन भारतीय कृ िष अनुसंधान प रषद
(आईसीएआर) का जनादेश है और इसकी मदद से
िकया जा रहा है; आईसीएआर अनुसंधान सं थान।
रा ीय अनुसंधान क । िविभ फसलों की अ खलरा ीय अनुसंधान क । िविभ फसलों की अ खल
भारतीय सम त अनुसंधान प रयोजना
• आईसीएआर अनुसंधान सं थान।
• रा ीय अनुसंधान क ।
• िविभ फसलों की अ खल भारतीय सम त
अनुसंधान प रयोजना

13. • िविभ रा ों म थािपत क ों के साथ रा कृ िष
िव िव ालय (एसएयू)।
• ायोिजत जनकों को चयिनत रा बीज िनगमों
ारा मा ता ा है।
• गैरसरकारी संगठन।
• आईसीएआर रा ीय बीज िनगम (एनएससी) / ेट
फाम कॉप रेशन ऑफ इंिडया (एसएफसीआई),फाम कॉप रेशन ऑफ इंिडया (एसएफसीआई),
• ेट सीड्स कॉप रेशन (एसएससी),
• कृ िष िव ान क (के वीके ) आिद के मा म से
ायोिजत जनक बीज उ ादन काय म को
बढ़ावा देता है।
वष म जनक बीज के उ ादन म लगातार वृ ई
है।

14. Plan of Breeder Seed Production
• The indents from various seeds producing agencies are
collected by the State Departments of Agriculture.
• State Departments of Agriculture submits the seeds
indent demand to the Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation (DAC) Ministry of
Agriculture, Government of India.
• DAC compiles the whole information crop wise and sends
it to the Project Coordinator/Project Director of theit to the Project Coordinator/Project Director of the
respective crops in ICAR for final allocation of production
responsibility to different SAUs/ICAR institutions.
• The allocation of responsibility for production of breeder
seed is discussed in the annual workshop in respect of the
particular crop and is made to various centre's as per the
facilities and capabilities available at the centre's and the
availability of nucleus seed of a particular variety.
• It may be noted that indents are compiled and forwarded
to ICAR at least 18 months in advance.

15. • To make the Programme systematic, and for proper
evaluation of the breeder seed production programme,
monitoring teams have been constituted and reporting
proformae have been devised. The monitoring teams
consist of breeder of the variety, the concerned Project
Director or his nominee, representative of NSC.
• The production of breeder seed is reviewed every year by
ICAR-DAC in the annual seed review meeting.
• The actual production of breeder seed by different centres
is intimated to DAC by ICAR.is intimated to DAC by ICAR.
• On receipt of information from ICAR, the available
breeder seed is allocated to all the indenters in an
equitable manner.
• In the case of varieties which are relevant only to a
particular State, the indents for breeder seed are placed
by the concerned Director of Agriculture with the
SAUs/ICAR institutions located in the State.
• The breeder seed produced is lifted directly by the
Director of Agriculture or foundation seed producing
agencies authorized by him.

16. Department of Agriculture submits
DAC compiles the report and send
its to PD’S of concerned crop
PD’S of concerned crop give mandate to the involved
institution for breeder seed production
Indents from NSC,SSC, SFCI,NRC’S,CRI’S,
SAU’S, AICRP’s,NGO’s etc to State Agriculture Dept. all the states
State dept of agriculture
collect the indents (Dec 16)
State dept of agriculture
collect the indents
Department of Agriculture submits
the indent report to DAC, MOA in 18
months advance period (JUNE 18)

17. • Foundation seed is the progeny of breeder seed .
• Foundation seed is required to be produced from breeder seed
or from FOUNDATION SEED STAGE – I which can be clearly
traced to breeder seed.
• The responsibility for production of foundation seed has been
entrusted to the agencies mentioned:
a. NSC (National Seed Corporation Ltd.)
b. SFCI (State farms Corporation of India Ltd.)
c. SSC (State Seeds Corporation Ltd )
Plan of Foundation Seed Production
c. SSC (State Seeds Corporation Ltd )
d. State Departments of Agriculture
e. Private seed producers
f. SAU (State Agricultural Universities)
g. KVK (Krishi Vigyan Kendra)
• Agencies who have the necessary infrastructure facilities.
Foundation seed is required to meet the standards of seed
certification prescribed in the Indian Minimum Seeds
Certification Standards, both at the field and laboratory
testing.

18. Plan of Certified Seed Production
• Certified seed is the progeny of foundation seed
and must meet the standards of seed certification
prescribed in the Indian Minimum Seeds
Certification Standards, 1988.
• In case of self pollinated crops, certified seeds
can also be produced from certified seeds
provided it does not go beyond three generations
from foundation seed stage-I.
• The production and distribution of
quality/certified seeds is primarily the
The production and distribution of
quality/certified seeds is primarily the
responsibility of the State Governments.
Certified seed production is organized through
State Seed Corporation, Departmental
Agricultural Farms, Cooperatives etc.
• The requirement of certified/quality seeds is
assessed by State Governments on the basis of
the area sown under different crop varieties,
• Area covered by hybrid and self-pollinated
varieties as well as the seed replacement rate
achieved.

19. • The availability of foundation seed is ascertained
by the State Departments of Agriculture on the
basis of the production of seed in government
farms and production of seeds by State Seeds
Corporations and other agencies.
• The Government of India periodically assesses
the requirement and availability of seeds through
detailed interaction with State Governments and
seed producing agencies in the bi-annual Zonal
Seed Review Meetings and the National Kharif
and Rabi Conferences.
• The Department of Agriculture and Cooperation• The Department of Agriculture and Cooperation
facilitates tie-up arrangements with seed
producing agencies to ensure that the
requirement of seeds is met to the maximum
extent possible.
• The efforts of the State Governments are being
supplemented by NSC and SFCI which produce
varieties of national importance.

20. • NSC markets its seeds through its own
marketing network and also through its
dealer network.
• SFCI markets its seeds mainly through
the State Departments of Agriculture
and the State Seed Corporations.
• The distribution of seeds is undertaken
through a number of channels i.e.
departmental outlets at block and
through a number of channels i.e.
departmental outlets at block and
village level, cooperatives, outlets of
seed corporations, private dealers etc.
• SFCI markets its seeds mainly through
the State Departments of Agriculture
and the State Seed Corporations.

21. • The distribution of seeds is undertaken
through a number of channels i.e.
departmental outlets at block and
village level, cooperatives, outlets of
seed corporations, private dealers etc.
• The production of certified seed by NSC
and State Seed Corporations is mainly
organized through contract growing
arrangements with progressive farmers.arrangements with progressive farmers.
• SFCI undertakes seed production on its
own farms.
• The private sector has also started to
play an important role in the supply of
quality seeds of vegetables and crops
like hybrid maize, sorghum, Bajra,
cotton, castor, sunflower, paddy etc.

22. ThanksThanks