One of the main open questions in discussion about x-risks is time-scale of the possible global catastrophe. Time-scale is time from now during which it will or happened or permanently prevented. Two main opinions exist: decades or centuries. If we take in account many predictions about continuing exponential or even hyperbolic development of new technologies when we should conclude that superhuman AI and ability to create super deadly biological viruses should be ready between 2030 (Vinge) or 2045 (Kurzweil). We write it in 2014, so it is just 15-30 years from now. As well as predictions about runaway global warming, limits of growth, peak oil and some version of Doomsday argument – all of them are centers around the year 2030. Such prediction easily could be falsified because 2030 year is rather soon. And also such prediction left us hopeless because it is clear that in such short timeframe it is unlikely that we could do something to prevent x-risks especially knowing how small were pervious efforts. But if we take one hundred years timeframe we as authors will have some advantages. We are signaling to be more respectful and conservative. It will be almost never proved that we are false during our lifetime. We have 10 times more chances to be right just because we have larger timeframe. We have plenty of time to implement some defense measures or in fact to think that such measures would be implemented (they will not). We may also think that we are correcting overoptimistic bias. It is well known that predictions about AI used to be overoptimistic.

1. Decades or centuries?
Timeframe of the risks of
human extinction
Alexey Turchin,
Longevity party

2. Timeframe
 Open question: when?
 Timeframe: x-risk happened or prevented

3. Two theories about x-risk
timeframe:
 Decades (15-30 years)
 Centuries (now-500 years)

4. “Decades” scenario
 X-risk : 2030-2050
 Probability is rising exponentially
 Chaotic and complex processes near the event horizon
(Technological singularity)
 AI is main factor

5. Decades: 10-30 years
Timing of creation superhuman AI and other super-
technologies: 2030 – Vinge, 2045 – Kurzweil

6. Superhuman AI
 or destroy humanity
 or prevent x-risks
Period of vulnerability to x-risks will be finished after
creation of superhuman AI

7. Arguments for decades scenario
 Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
Convergence
 Everything appears
simultaneously

8. Arguments for decades scenario
 Exponential growth of technologies
 Exponential growth of x-risks
 Deadly viruses – cheaper
 AI – simpler

9. Arguments for decades scenario
Possible triggers in the near future:
 World war
 New arms race
 Peak oil
 Runaway global warming
Smaller catastrophe starts bigger one

10. Centuries scenario
 50-500 years from now
 Rare events
 Accidental
 Mutually independent
 Linear distribution of probability
 Prevention by space dwelling

11. Arguments for centuries scenario:
 Most predictions about AI: false
 Most predictions about
near future global catastrophe:
false

12. Arguments for centuries scenario:
 Exponential growth – level up
 Moore’s law – stop
 Linear future growth

13. Arguments for centuries scenario:
X-risks:
 Independent
 Accidental
 Unknown origin
 No chain reaction

14. Public bias for centuries scenario:
Long-term predictions:
 More scientific
 Less chances to be false
 Improving the reputation
 Helping to prevent x-risks.
John Leslie – 500 years (1996)
Nick Bostrom – 200 (2001)
Martin Rees – 100 (2003)

15. Decades scenario is worse
 Sooner
 Less time to prepare
 More complex
 Military AI – Unfriendly
 In our lifetime

16. Conclusion
 Open question – timeframe
 It depends on exponential or linear development of
future technologies
 Different risks interact in complex and unpredictable
ways near Technological Singularity
 It could happen as soon as in next 15 years

17. We need to search effective mode of
actions to prevent x-risks
 Create social demand for preventing existential risks
 Example: fight against nuclear war in 80ies
 Political movement for x-risk prevention and life extension.
 Near-term risk is more motivating for actions