Presentation of the EFSA's second scientific conference, held on 14-16 October 2015 in Milan, Italy. MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

1. Gordon Müller-Seitz
Chair of Strategic Management, TU Kaiserslautern, Germany
EFSA‘s 2nd Scientific Conference, EXPO 2015, October 16, 2015
Dealing with uncertainty in emergency assessment:
The case of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 2011

2. Every crisis is distinct, but frequently, response actions have common
errors

3. Agenda
3Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
Recap of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 20111.
Lessons learned2

4. Several barriers hindered a swift solution to the crisis
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Barriers
4
1) Missing relations
2) Established bureaucratic
structures
3) Uncertainty
1) Missing relations
2) Established bureaucratic
structures
3) Uncertainty
Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014)
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16

5. Crisis as a trigger for change
5
Ad hoc solutions
5
1) Common frame
 Need to act
 Time pressure
2) Emergent leeway
 Actors’ gains
 Modifying past experiences
 Established infrastructures
1) Common frame
 Need to act
 Time pressure
2) Emergent leeway
 Actors’ gains
 Modifying past experiences
 Established infrastructures
Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014)
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16

6. Communication is key when it comes to aligning activities and
engaging with stakeholders
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Communication
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Sources of contamination
 Cucumbers?
 Lettuce?
 Tomatoes?
 Sprouts?
Sources of contamination
 Cucumbers?
 Lettuce?
 Tomatoes?
 Sprouts?
Source: Müller-Seitz (2014), Müller-Seitz, Macpherson (2014)
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16

7. Agenda
7Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
Recap of the EHEC outbreak in Germany in 20111.
Lessons learned2.

8. Lessons learned for managing your organization
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Intraorganizational implications
8
Implications
 Transparency is ambiguous
 Learning from and across
incidents
 Redundancies are beneficial
 Make use of leeways
during crisis
Implications
 Transparency is ambiguous
 Learning from and across
incidents
 Redundancies are beneficial
 Make use of leeways
during crisis
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16

9. Lessons learned for managing across organizational boundaries
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Interorganizational implications
9
Implications
 ‘War for meaning’ /
blame game
 Seek external expertise
to legitimize actions
 Collaborate to become
aware of problems sooner
- on a national level
- on the EU-level
- on a global level
Implications
 ‘War for meaning’ /
blame game
 Seek external expertise
to legitimize actions
 Collaborate to become
aware of problems sooner
- on a national level
- on the EU-level
- on a global level
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16

10. Thank you very much for your interest
Contact – Research Group ‘Risk & Network Management‘
10
Chair of Strategic Management
Phone: +49 (0) 631 205 5009
Fax: +49 (0) 631 205 5014
eMail: gms@wiwi.uni-kl.de
Prof. Dr. Gordon Müller-Seitz
Address
Technische Universität Kaiserslautern
Lehrstuhl für Strategisches Management
Postfach 3049
67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
http://strama.wiwi.uni-kl.de/en
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
This paper benefited from insightful comments of
Olivier Berthod (FUB), Andreas Jansen (ECDC/RKI),
Jan Kielstein (MHH), Georg Schreyögg (FUB),
Jörg Sydow (FUB), Lothar Wieler (RKI/FUB) and
Jürgen Zentek (FUB) on early drafts.
Last but not least I am genuinely grateful for the medical
practitioners for their time, support, insights and patience
in the course of transdisciplinary collaboration.

11. The EHEC outbreak took German authorities by surprise and caused havoc
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Key figures
Source: Nature (2011); RKI (2011)
Müller-Seitz / Dealing with Uncertainty / EFSA, EXPO 2015-10-16
 May – July 2011
 Selected intermediate figures
(Infected / HUS)
- Germany (2.987 / 855)
- Sweden (32 / 15)
- Denmark (11 / 7)
 (Northern) Germany
 53 fatalities
 EU-wide economic and polictical implications