Republicans have successfully framed budget debates around deficits rather than jobs or fairness. While voters prioritize reducing deficits, they support balancing the budget through tax increases on the wealthy rather than cuts to Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security. Democrats should shift discussions from austerity to priorities like jobs, education and infrastructure and emphasize their historic advantage on social programs and taxes. Progressive economic populism focused on fairness and opportunity polled strongly against Republican frames.

1. Stopping the Sequester
February 19th, 2013
Celinda Lake
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066

2. Strategic Summary: Context
• We have seen major wins with the public on taxes. Voters still believe the
wealthiest 2% and big corporations are not paying enough in taxes. We have
seen losses in the budget debates with increased salience around deficits and
support for across the board cuts.
• Voters still believe the budget can be balanced by cutting waste, fraud, and
abuse.
• We are paying a price for the lack of a comprehensive progressive economic
narrative.
• When we have candidates that do implement progressive economic policies,
they do not talk about them enough. This vacuum of information is filled by
Republican talking points on “big government” and “wasteful spending.”
• In the near future, we can not allow the sequester and other short term budget
gimmicks from Republicans deal fatal blows to Medicare and Social Security. 2

3. Strategic Summary: Policies
• On the idea of reducing the deficit, the public sides with Republicans, but when specific
proposals are mentioned they are on our side.
• When the public is faced with actual choices to reduce the budget deficit, the only
ideas that gain majority approval involve raising taxes on the wealthy, like limiting
deductions or raising the tax on investment income. We should not just refer to
revenue. The only budget item that voters support cutting is foreign aid.
• Reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits for higher income retirees is a much
more popular proposal than raising the retirement age, but it would set a dangerous
precedent. Voters do support lifting the cap on income subject to Social Security taxes.
• Cutting defense spending is also an unpopular option, largely driven by resistance from
women. Women are very skeptical that the defense budget can be cut without posing a
threat to national security in general, but more specifically they worry about the impact
on troops and their families.
• People like balanced approaches with budget cuts and taxes.
3

4. Strategic Summary: Strategies
• In the big picture, it is important to remember that the debate over the
budget deficit is part of a political strategy by the Republican Party.
• They made attacking the deficit a political strategy to attack President Obama
from the beginning of his first term, when only the most cynical observers
would deny that the deficit was left on Obama’s doorstep following the Great
Recession and the fiscal irresponsibility of the Bush Administration.
• They continue to raise it as an issue because it neutralizes the trust the public
has with Democrats on protecting Social Security and Medicare.
• It is important to shift away from an austerity debate, not only to protect
America’s seniors, but also to devote attention and political capital to
progressive priorities like the environment, immigration reform, and
strengthening gun laws.
4

5. Strategic Summary: Message
• Going forward, there are several key ingredients made up the message
frames that led Democrats to victory this cycle and should remain as a
component of the Democratic messaging on the economy:
– Economic fairness: juxtaposing the windfall profits of a handful of
millionaires and billionaires with the steady erosion of America’s working
middle class. The best budget arguments contrast tax breaks with a focus
on education and protecting Medicare.
– Job creation: outlining plans to rebuild the middle class through a Made-
in-America agenda and cracking down on job outsourcing, unfair trade
deals, and corporate tax loopholes, and making bold investments.
– GOP’s wrong priorities: drawing a strong contrast with Republican plans
to gut Medicare and education in order to subsidize tax breaks for
millionaires.
5

6. In a survey fielded this past summer, LRP tested two variations of a populist message
theme. The “Jobs” message focused on unfair trade deals and corporate loopholes, while
the “Fairness” message called for raising the minimum wage and requiring millionaires to
pay their fair share of taxes. This was at a time when Democrats were 6-7 points behind
Republicans on who would do the best job on the economy. Both messages performed
strongly with the Democratic base and swing women.
Democratic Populism Messages vs. Republican Economic Frame
Populism and Jobs Populism and Fairness
47 47
42 41
+5 +6
33 31 11 32 12
27
Democrats Republicans Undecided Democrats Republicans Undecided
Darker colors indicate intensity. 6
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this online survey of 1,581 likely voters nationwide. The survey was conducted across two waves
between August 16 -22, 2012. The margin of error is +/-2.5%.

7. A message attacking the GOP’s plans to cut taxes for millionaires while gutting
Medicare and education performs the strongest for voters under 30, while the
“Investment” message focusing on education and infrastructure performs
especially well with independent voters.
Additional Democratic Message Frames vs. GOP Alternative
GOP’s Wrong Priorities Long-Term Investment
48 48
41 +7 40 +8
32 11 29 29 12
28
Democrats Republicans Undecided Democrats Republicans Undecided
Darker colors indicate intensity. 7
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this online survey of 1,581 likely voters nationwide. The survey was conducted across two waves
between August 16 -22, 2012. The margin of error is +/-2.5%.

8. Democratic Messages
Populism and Jobs
Democrats say that to fix our economy, we need to rebuild the middle class.
Republicans want more tax cuts for the rich and companies that ship jobs overseas.
That doesn’t work. Instead, create good jobs by making things in America again. Put
multinational corporations on notice – you want to sell here, you’ve got to produce
here. End the unfair trade deals and crack down on offshore tax dodges. Invest in
areas vital to our economy–innovation and research, education, rebuilding our
decaying infrastructure–and pay for it by getting millionaires and big corporations
to pay their fair share. Rebuild the middle class and revive the economy.
Populism and Fairness
Democrats say the middle class is disappearing, while the richest clean up.
Republicans want billions more in tax breaks for the wealthy, paid for by cuts in
Medicare and education. That’s wrong. We need to take on the special interests
that are rigging the rules. Raise the minimum wage. Stop rewarding CEOs for
cooking the books. Empower workers to bargain for a fair share of the profits they
help produce. Invest in areas vital to our economy–
innovation, education, rebuilding our decaying infrastructure–and pay for it by
getting millionaires and big corporations to pay their fair share. This economy needs
to work for Americans who work hard and play by the rules. 8

9. Democratic Messages
GOP’s Wrong Priorities
Democrats say our choice couldn’t be clearer. Our top priority should be good jobs to
rebuild the middle class. But Republicans want to give millionaires another tax
cut, and pay for it by raising taxes on the middle class and gutting Medicare and
education. That’s just plain wrong. We should invest in areas vital to our economy–
research and innovation, education–and rebuild our decaying infrastructure: our
roads, bridges, schools, and sewers. Pay for this by closing tax loopholes and asking
millionaires and corporations to pay their fair share. Our choices should reflect our
values: if you do well in America, you should do right by America.
Long-Term Investment
Democrats say we need to move on a bold strategy to get this economy going
again, not short-term schemes that only help corporations and the wealthy. But the
Republican call for slashing spending while giving more tax breaks to the wealthy has
failed before. We need to start now to make investments vital to a strong economy–
innovation and research, education, rebuilding our decaying infrastructure–
roads, sewers, schools, and our outdated energy grid. Let’s take half the money we
were spending on war and put millions back to work right here in the United States
of America, making our country a center for innovation and growth again.
9

10. Republican Message
Republicans say Obama has failed. 23 million people are in need of
work because he’s burdening the economy with wasted spending, big
deficits, more regulations, and higher taxes. No wonder business
isn’t creating jobs. We say it’s time for new leadership. We need
more freedom, not more regulation. Lower deficits, not more
spending. More jobs, not more taxes. We need to roll back the
regulations blocking production of oil, coal, gas, and other energy
right here in the U.S. Repeal Obamacare, lower taxes, and free up
businesses to create jobs. Cut spending and move to a balanced
budget. It’s small business, not government, that will get America
going again.
10

11. A series of tracking polls in key swing states shows widespread
opposition to the austerity proposals on Medicare and Social Security
being discussed in Washington. President Obama did not just win re-
election; he won a mandate to protect America’s social safety net.
TOTAL OH CO IA NH
Proposal Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp
Ending traditional Medicare 15% 73% 16% 74% 16% 70% 13% 75% 13% 74%
Replacing Medicare with a voucher
19% 61% 19% 62% 21% 60% 20% 60% 18% 62%
system
Privatizing Medicare 26% 55% 22% 59% 28% 54% 28% 52% 27% 54%
TOTAL OH CO IA NH
Proposal Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp
Cutting Social Security benefits 9% 84% 5% 89% 12% 79% 9% 82% 8% 85%
Cutting Medicaid 13% 78% 15% 77% 12% 80% 14% 77% 10% 79%
Cutting Medicaid, the program that
provides health insurance and
16% 76% 15% 79% 21% 72% 15% 74% 15% 79%
nursing home care for low-income
families
11
Lake Research Partners designed and administered these surveys, which were conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. The surveys reached
approximately 400 adults in OH, CO, IA, and NH, 18 years or older, who were registered and likely to vote in the 2012 General Election. The surveys were
conducted between October 18th and November 4th, 2012. The margin of error for each poll is +/-4.9%.

12. A narrow plurality of the American people say reducing the budget deficit is more
important than spending to help the economy recover. Fifty-two percent of
independents and nearly one-third (30%) of Democrats favor reducing the
budget deficit. There is a consensus across party lines on using a balanced
approach.
12

13. Republicans made a strategic choice to undermine Obama’s agenda by
attacking him for the budget deficit very early in his term, and it worked.
His approval rating on the federal budget deficit went down his first year
in office and has never recovered.
Quotes by Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell during Obama’s first 100 days:
“We have been on an incredible spending
spree…we’re spending money at a very, very
rapid pace, far beyond anything in history.”
-February 23rd 2009
"In just one month, the Democrats have
spent more than President Bush spent in
seven years on the war in Iraq, the war in
Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina
combined."
- February 27th 2009 in a speech at CPAC
"The nation's debt is at its highest level ever,
but under the administration's budget, the
amount of public debt will double in five
years and triple in 10.”
-April 20th 2009
13
Source: Gallup

14. As the Presidential campaign winded down and the self-imposed
deadlines like the fiscal cliff and sequestration took up more attention,
the public naturally reacted to the deficit being a more important
problem.
14
Source: Gallup

15. The pubic trusts Democrats
more on Social Security
and Medicare, and even
gives them the advantage
on the historically
Republican turf of taxes.
However, the parties are in
a statistical tie when asked
who can handle the deficit.
The Democrats’
advantages on Social
Security, Medicare, and
taxes will all be irrelevant if
the public trusts
Republicans to cut the
deficit.
15
Source: Pew

16. There is a large partisan split on methods to reduce the deficit, although
it is notable that even the conservative ideas barely register majority
support among Republicans.
16
Source: Pew Research Center

17. Obama outperformed Democrats in Congress on who would do better on
Social Security against Republicans in Congress, particularly among
seniors and independents.
Who Would Better Handle Social Security?
Republicans in Congress Republicans in Congress
Democrats in Congress President Obama
All Voters 34 40 All Voters
+6 31 42 +11
Independents 28 Indepednents
34 +6 21 34 +13
Under 30 32 42 Under +10
30 27 36 +9
30 to 39 24 42 30 to+18
39 25 40 +15
40 to 49 27 41 40 to +14
49 23 51 +28
50 to 64 38 40 50 to +2
64 37 40 +3
Over 65 46 31 Over -15
65 36 44 +8
17
LRP designed and administered this pre-election and election night omnibus survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers.
The survey reached a total of 1,200 likely, registered voters nationwide. The sample consisted of 1,000 interviews among voters who were reached
on landline phones & 200 interviews among voters reached on cell phones. The survey was conducted November 4th through November 6th, 2012.

18. Older voters were more divided on Medicare and gave Democrats less of
an advantage, but younger voters and independents believed Obama
would better handle Medicare by large margins.
Who Would Better Handle Medicare?
Republicans in Congress Republicans in Congress
Democrats in Congress President Obama
All Voters 35 40 All Voters
+5 32 42 +10
Independents 31 Indepednents
29 -2 21 36 +15
Under 30 33 41 Under +8
30 20 40 +20
30 to 39 25 37 30 to+12
39 25 42 +17
40 to 49 32 43 40 to +11
49 27 47 +20
50 to 64 40 38 50 to -2
64 42 41 -1
Over 65 46 36 Over -10
65 43 42 -1
18

19. It is likely Republicans will try to exploit the narrow approval for reduced
benefits for “high-income” seniors as justification for larger cuts. It is
imperative to emphasize that the government has an obligation to
protect seniors who have paid into these programs their entire lives.
19
Source: Pew Research Center

20. Three-quarters of voters believe we are spending too much on foreign
assistance, and a plurality believe we spend too much on the Pentagon budget.
There is more traction for reducing the Pentagon budget than the defense or
military budget.
Right
Amount
12
25
33
35
18
28
12
16
28
18
Not enough Too much
*Split sample question 20
Lake Research Partners and Bellwether Research and Consulting designed and administered this survey which was conducted by phone using
professional interviewers. The survey reached a total of 800 likely voters nationwide. The survey was conducted April 17-22, 2012.
Please tell me if you think the federal government spends too much, not enough, or spends about the right amount on each of the following?

21. A majority of voters say it is not possible to cut military spending without
negatively impacting troops and their families, and nearly half say it is
not possible to cut the Pentagon budget. Women are more unsure about
the impact cuts will have.
Net DK
-18 9
-15 6
-21 12
-8 12
-7 5
-10 18
No Yes
*Split sample question
21
Is it possible to cut military spending and not negatively impact the troops and their families?
Is it possible to cut the Pentagon budget and not negatively impact the troops and their families?

22. Voters express deep concern about cutting funding that
directly impacts the troops.
Men Women
Total
+73 +74 +73
Across every demographic and attitudinal subgroup, at least a majority of voters
are very concerned about cutting funding that directly impacts troops.
*Split sample question 22
How concerned would you be about cutting funding that directly impacts the troops -- very concerned, somewhat
concerned, a little concerned, or not concerned at all?

23. The sentiment that it is personally important to protect our
troops and veterans from cuts is near universal.
Men Women
Total
+91 +89 +93
Across every demographic and attitudinal subgroup, at least two-thirds of voters
believe it is very important to protect our troops and veterans from cuts.
*Split sample question 23
If we reduce military spending, how personally important is it to you to protect our troops and veterans from cuts -- very
important, somewhat important, a little important, or not important at all?

24. Beyond the damage
it would due to
America’s most
vulnerable
citizens, unnecessary
focus on the budget
deficit is already
diverting attention
away from
progressive priorities
like immigration
reform and
strengthening gun
laws.
24
Source: Pew Research Center

25. Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Celinda Lake
clake@lakeresearch.com