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Forecasting Production Losses at a
       Swedish Wind Farm


  WinterWind 2013

     Neil Davis,
 Andrea Hahmann,
 Niels-Erik Clausen,
  Mark Zagar, and
    Pierre Pinson
Motivation
     ●    Site location
     ●    Wind park planning
     ●    Energy market pricing




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark     February 10, 2013   2
Production Forecast Model




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013   3
Inputs
                                                             ●
                                                                  Observational data
                                                                  ●   Located in central Sweden
                                                                  ●   Approximately 50 Vestas V90 turbines
                                                                  ●   Grouped into 3 parks
                                                                  ●   Observations from January 2011
                                                                  ●   Temperature, wind speed , wind direction from
                                                                      hubs of each turbine, production & turbine
                                                                      normal operation time

                                                              ●   WRF mesoscale simulation
                                                                  ●    27 km & 9 km nests
                                                                  ●    Thompson microphysics & MYNN2 PBL
                                                                       ●   Best performing of 9 sensitivities
                                                                  ●    FNL for initial & boundary conditions
                                                                  ●    Grid nudging on the outermost domain
                                                                  ●    63 vertical levels




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013                                                  4
Icing model
  ●   Modified Makkonen model
      ●   Cylinder moves at blade relative velocity
           ●   Diameter 0.144 m
           ●   Located at 75% of blade length
      ●   Heat transfer coefficient for airfoils
      ●   Blade always at 80m hub height
      ●   Utilize all 4 WRF hydro-meteor types
          (QCLOUD, QRAIN, QICE, QSNOW)

  ●   Sublimation & shedding included
      ●   Sublimation based on humidity gradient &
          radiation balance
      ●   Shedding set to 100% when T > 1º Celsius




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark      February 10, 2013   5
Ice duration evaluation




    ●   Timeseries comparing model icing periods to periods when any turbine was iced in a given farm.
    ●   Compared with persistence & threshold method for several skill scores and this method
        outperformed both
    ●   For more details see paper submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology “Forecast of
        Icing Events at a Wind Farm in Sweden”



DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013                                        6
Production loss model
    ●   Fit smoothing function to power
        curve
         ●   Wind farm average values
         ●   Only for temps above freezing
         ●   Red line in the plot
    ●   Calculate power difference
         ●   Deviation from modeled power
    ●   Investigate potential predictors for
        power difference
         ●   Ice Model outputs
         ●   WRF Hydrometeors
    ●   Fit test models for all farms
         ●   Make use of entire dataset
         ●
             Maximize adjusted R2

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013   7
Model Parameters
     ●   Threshold                                 ●   Ice only                  ●   Enhanced
         ●   Model qall > 1e-3                         ●   Forecasted power          ●   Ice only parameters
         ●   Set power to 0
                                                       ●   Accumulated mass          ●   Square root of all 4
                                                       ●   Average ice density           hydrometeors
         ●   Use power curve all
             other times                               ●   Sublimation
                                                       ●   Temperature




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark             February 10, 2013                                  8
K-fold cross validation




     ●   Cut into 12 pieces
     ●   Fit 8 pieces (training), and forecast remaining 4 (test)
     ●   Calculate RMSE & mean bias of mean farm power forecast (test)
     ●   Monte Carlo approach with 495 different model fits


DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013     9
RMSE




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013   10
Bias




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013   11
Conclusions
     ●   Combination of WRF output parameters & icing model parameters
         works best for all 3 wind parks
     ●   Both bias and RMSE of hourly production estimates can be
         improved using this approach
     ●   Both statistical approaches show improvement over the threshold
         based method
     ●   For this site the icing model output was a secondary feature, with
         the cloud outputs from WRF performing as well as the icing model.
          ●   We propose this is due in part to the very cold temperatures during icing,
              so the physical icing model does not have as much impact.

         This work was supported financially by the Top-Level Research Initiative (TFI)
         project, Improved forecast of wind, waves and icing (IceWind), Vestas, and the
         Nordic Energy Industry.


DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013                       12
Future Work
     ●   Apply this method to other sites and longer periods
          ●   Investigate possible time lags using time series analysis
     ●   Ensure the modified Makkonen model is representing the
         turbine icing correctly
          ●   Develop relationships between the two if required
     ●   Enhance the formulation of ice removal mechanisms
     ●   Evaluate performance using forecasted winds




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark   February 10, 2013      13
Questions???




DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark      February 10, 2013   14

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Davis neil

  • 1. Forecasting Production Losses at a Swedish Wind Farm WinterWind 2013 Neil Davis, Andrea Hahmann, Niels-Erik Clausen, Mark Zagar, and Pierre Pinson
  • 2. Motivation ● Site location ● Wind park planning ● Energy market pricing DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 2
  • 3. Production Forecast Model DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 3
  • 4. Inputs ● Observational data ● Located in central Sweden ● Approximately 50 Vestas V90 turbines ● Grouped into 3 parks ● Observations from January 2011 ● Temperature, wind speed , wind direction from hubs of each turbine, production & turbine normal operation time ● WRF mesoscale simulation ● 27 km & 9 km nests ● Thompson microphysics & MYNN2 PBL ● Best performing of 9 sensitivities ● FNL for initial & boundary conditions ● Grid nudging on the outermost domain ● 63 vertical levels DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 4
  • 5. Icing model ● Modified Makkonen model ● Cylinder moves at blade relative velocity ● Diameter 0.144 m ● Located at 75% of blade length ● Heat transfer coefficient for airfoils ● Blade always at 80m hub height ● Utilize all 4 WRF hydro-meteor types (QCLOUD, QRAIN, QICE, QSNOW) ● Sublimation & shedding included ● Sublimation based on humidity gradient & radiation balance ● Shedding set to 100% when T > 1º Celsius DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 5
  • 6. Ice duration evaluation ● Timeseries comparing model icing periods to periods when any turbine was iced in a given farm. ● Compared with persistence & threshold method for several skill scores and this method outperformed both ● For more details see paper submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology “Forecast of Icing Events at a Wind Farm in Sweden” DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 6
  • 7. Production loss model ● Fit smoothing function to power curve ● Wind farm average values ● Only for temps above freezing ● Red line in the plot ● Calculate power difference ● Deviation from modeled power ● Investigate potential predictors for power difference ● Ice Model outputs ● WRF Hydrometeors ● Fit test models for all farms ● Make use of entire dataset ● Maximize adjusted R2 DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 7
  • 8. Model Parameters ● Threshold ● Ice only ● Enhanced ● Model qall > 1e-3 ● Forecasted power ● Ice only parameters ● Set power to 0 ● Accumulated mass ● Square root of all 4 ● Average ice density hydrometeors ● Use power curve all other times ● Sublimation ● Temperature DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 8
  • 9. K-fold cross validation ● Cut into 12 pieces ● Fit 8 pieces (training), and forecast remaining 4 (test) ● Calculate RMSE & mean bias of mean farm power forecast (test) ● Monte Carlo approach with 495 different model fits DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 9
  • 10. RMSE DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 10
  • 11. Bias DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 11
  • 12. Conclusions ● Combination of WRF output parameters & icing model parameters works best for all 3 wind parks ● Both bias and RMSE of hourly production estimates can be improved using this approach ● Both statistical approaches show improvement over the threshold based method ● For this site the icing model output was a secondary feature, with the cloud outputs from WRF performing as well as the icing model. ● We propose this is due in part to the very cold temperatures during icing, so the physical icing model does not have as much impact. This work was supported financially by the Top-Level Research Initiative (TFI) project, Improved forecast of wind, waves and icing (IceWind), Vestas, and the Nordic Energy Industry. DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 12
  • 13. Future Work ● Apply this method to other sites and longer periods ● Investigate possible time lags using time series analysis ● Ensure the modified Makkonen model is representing the turbine icing correctly ● Develop relationships between the two if required ● Enhance the formulation of ice removal mechanisms ● Evaluate performance using forecasted winds DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 13
  • 14. Questions??? DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark February 10, 2013 14