Business analytics can provide a major stimulus for transformational change. Yet neuroscience and psychology show us that people are typically not "wired" to engage with facts. Analytics leaders seeking to develop a data-driven culture must take positive steps to engage with emotions. What can we do to overcome these psychological resistance factors? Key Challenges Humans are "wired" with multiple mechanisms that inhibit their ability to engage with facts. People's initial responses tend to be emotional rather than rational. Being presented with evidence that contradicts existing beliefs and values can mean that positions become more entrenched, even when there is benefit to be derived from change. Business benefits are mostly presented as benefits to the business only, rather than considering their effect on the beliefs and motivations of individuals. Why to attend this webinar? Information and Analytics leaders should attend this webinar to learn how to: Connect emotionally with stakeholders, engage with both collective and personal benefits to increase engagement and ensure that there is both organizational and personal buy-in to decisions. Avoid the psychological responses that inhibit engagement with data by communicating analytics outputs in ways that take such reactions into account. Apply critical thinking when presenting analytics results, to overcome logical fallacies and decision biases.

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Influencing With Analytics: Facts Don't Matter Much!
@Alan_D_Duncan
May 2016

2. 1 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Webinar for DAMA & Dataversity – 17/05/16
 Business analytics can provide a major stimulus for transformational change. Yet neuroscience and
psychology show us that people are typically not "wired" to engage with facts. Analytics leaders
seeking to develop a data-driven culture must take positive steps to engage with emotions. What
can we do to overcome these psychological resistance factors?
 Why to attend this webinar?
 Information and Analytics leaders should attend this webinar to learn how to:
 Connect emotionally with stakeholders, engage with both collective and personal benefits to
increase engagement and ensure that there is both organizational and personal buy-in to decisions.
 Avoid the psychological responses that inhibit engagement with data by communicating analytics
outputs in ways that take such reactions into account.
 Apply critical thinking when presenting analytics results, to overcome logical fallacies and decision
biases.

3. 2 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
"I try not to think with my gut.
If I'm serious about
understanding the world,
thinking with anything
besides my brain, as
tempting as that might be, is
likely to get me into trouble."
— Carl Sagan

4. 3 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
"Two things are infinite. The
universe and human stupidity.
… and I'm not so sure about
the universe."
— Albert Einstein

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Key Issues
1. Connecting emotionally with your stakeholders.
2. Avoid psychological responses that inhibit success.
3. Apply critical thinking when presenting analytical results.
"… first learn to construct the parts
properly before it ventures to fashion a
great whole ..."
— Friedrich Nietzsche

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Set an Aspirational Vision That Tugs on the Heart Strings …
What's in it for us?
(collective benefits)
What's in it for me?
(personal benefits)
Values
Beliefs
Outcomes

7. 6 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Set an Aspirational Vision That Tugs on the Heart Strings …
Collective Benefit/Organizational Outcome Personal Benefit/Individual Outcome
Increased revenue from raising the sales penetration
of new product lines.
Attendance at the end-of-year sales inventive
"Winners Circle."
Project delivered on time and on budget. Promotion to a more senior job grade.
Holding an end-user conference that attracts new
sales prospects.
Presentation of a case study that is covered in social
media and raises personal profile.
A new version of the online self-service customer
website is launched to market ahead of schedule,
reducing operating costs by 5%.
Chief executive recognizes the individuals in the
company's end-of-quarter newsletter.
Improved graduation rates and test scores help the
school system and budgets.
As a teacher, I can affect the life of my students for
years to come.
Don't say "no"…!

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Key Issues
1. Connecting emotionally with your stakeholders.
2. Avoid psychological responses that inhibit success.
3. Apply critical thinking when presenting analytical results.
"To succeed in life, you need two things:
ignorance and confidence."
— Mark Twain

9. 8 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Neuropsychologists Are Your Friends
System 1: Reactive:
• Intuitive
• Emotional
• Saves energy
• Generates context
unknowingly
• Potential cognitive traps
System 2: Reflective:
• Thoughtful
• Deliberate
• Takes energy
• Pieces information
together
• Indecisive and slow
"The pure and simple truth
is rarely pure and simple."
— Oscar Wilde
Adapted from Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and Chip and Dan Heath's "Switch"

10. 9 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Presenting Facts in a "Feel Safe" Manner
Fact-Based Statement Perceived Threat/Subconscious
Response
Alternative "Feel Safe" Approach
The sales figures are down by 20%
from last quarter.
You aren't doing a good enough job in managing
the sales pipeline.
 Can you help me understand these sales figures?
 Is there anything you can suggest that accounts for them?
 What can we do about it?
 How can I support you in that?
Compared with the same time period
last year, complaints calls are taking
an average of 58 seconds longer to
close during the day shift than in
the evenings.
You aren't controlling the call center team properly.  This seems odd — I can't figure out what's happening at the
call center.
 It looks like calls are taking longer to process than they were a
year ago. Can I borrow your expert eye to have a look for me?
 Since you are there on the ground, what has changed about
calls, or the center, that might account for this?
Productivity is down and our
manufacturing costs are up.
You're going to be made redundant.  Are there any opportunities to optimize the production process?
Here are the current operating performance KPIs.
 What do you suggest we can do?
The students in Math 302 have all
failed their midterm exams.
This isn't good enough. You are clearly an
inadequate teacher.
 This looks like an anomaly; how can we help these students get
back on track?
We are going to do away with all
spreadsheet-based reporting, starting
with your department.
You will be exposed and lose control.  Over a period of months, we would like to phase out
spreadsheet-based reporting and move to an easier method that
requires less work.
 We know that this may cause people to feel exposed. Will you
help me to work through this transition?

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"I Can't Handle the Truth!" — Cognitive Biases
 In short: We condition ourselves to be dumb!
 Challenging our mental models threatens our sense
of identity.
 Evidence that contradicts existing beliefs and values can
mean that positions become even more entrenched
and defensive:
– Even if those beliefs are contrary to the individual's own
best interests.
 And there's groupthink to contend with too …

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"I Can't Handle the Truth!"
 Chevrolet knew about and ignored faulty ignition switches in their Cobalt motor cars. 30 million cars
were eventually recalled, and the company paid compensation for 124 deaths.
 Long-term climate forecasts in North Carolina predict significant coastal inundation, which will result in
homes being destroyed. With related impact on house prices, coastal residents and real estate agents
have lobbied to have the forecasts nullified.
 Misinformed opposition to vaccination has caused a resurgence in preventable diseases such as
measles and whooping cough (in the U.S., for example). Anti-vaccination proponents become even
more resistant to vaccination when presented with information that contradicts their beliefs.
 Misinformation and political resistance to AIDS prevention programs and treatment with antiretroviral
drugs (ARVs) in postapartheid South Africa has led to an estimated 171,000 HIV infections and
343,000 HIV-related deaths between 1999 and 2007.
 When presented with data that contradicts their intuition, 9 out of 10
executives will find a way to ignore the data.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/general-motors-announces-30th-recall-of-year/ CBS News, 2014
"On N.C.'s Outer Banks, Scary Climate-Change Predictions Prompt a Change of Forecast," The Washington Post.
B. Nyhan, J. Reifler, S. Richey, G. Freed (M.D.). "Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial." Pediatrics 2013 (2365).
N. Nattrass. "AIDS and the Scientific Governance of Medicine in Post-Apartheid South Africa." African Affairs 2008 (107).
"Decisive Action: How Businesses Make Decisions and How They Could Do It Better," (PDF) The Economist Intelligence Unit.

13. 12 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Some Biases That Affect Data-Driven Thinking …
Cognitive Bias Description and Impact of Bias Example of Approach to Overcoming Bias
Anchoring Bias  Overreliance on the first piece of information presented.
 Subsequent information is then balanced against the first dataset.
 Be the first to present your data, and focus on the preferred option.
 If you have multiple elements to present, give an overview of the conclusion and
then work back to the supporting information.
Backfire Effect  By being exposed to new information that contradicts a current set of beliefs, those beliefs are
further entrenched.
 The desired data-driven action becomes harder to achieve.
 Understand the rationale for existing beliefs or expectations.
 Present new information as questions that the stakeholder must respond to,
rather than stark facts.
 Emphasize the situation, not the individual, to avoid any perception of
challenging their self-image.
Barnum Effect
(Forer Effect)
 People accept general and vague information when they are led to believe that the information
has been specifically tailored to be about them.
 Action is taken based on generally available, but plausible information, rather than seeking
specific, detailed evidence.
 Ensure information is specific, relevant and actionable.
 Take the roles of the audience into account and present specific information that
is relevant to their individual situations.
Benjamin Franklin Effect  We grow to like people for whom we do nice things, and dislike those to whom we are unkind.
 Business relationships become insular.
 Be proactive in taking data to stakeholders — both those who we naturally get
along with and those who we find more difficult.
 Build a network and foster new relationships based on being seen as a trusted
source of relevant and impactful information.
Confirmation Bias  Tendency to recognize instances that meet our expectations or preconceptions and to ignore all
other data points.
 Leads to false perspectives.
 Open up exposure to other experiences and a broader set of perspectives.
 Encourage and explore familiarity with unusual situations not
previously encountered.
 Appoint someone as "devil's advocate" to voice dissenting opinions.
Dunning Kruger Effect  The more ill-informed and incompetent someone is, the more mistakenly confident they are of
their position. In contrast, the more informed a person becomes, the less confident they tend
to become.
 Ignorance becomes a driving force for action.
 Leverage group experiences. Bring people together to explore data and
discuss implications.
 Facilitate peer interactions that can achieve overall consensus.
Semmelweis Reflex  Ignoring data that contradicts current received wisdom.
 New ideas and innovations are overlooked.
(Named after Ignaz Semmelweis, who advocated hand-washing in hospitals as a means of reducing
contamination — after he found that it reduced mortality rates — but was ignored by
his contemporaries).
 Understanding current processes and scenarios, and any assumptions —
including any vested interests.
Cognitive Dissonance  Holding that two contradictory or mutually exclusive beliefs are both true. For example,
continuing to be a smoker in full knowledge of the risks to health.
 Present evidence that leads the stakeholder to examine both beliefs.
 Define measures and incentives to participate that lead to the required behavior.
 Define standards and use compliance methods to encourage (or enforce) a
particular approach.

14. 13 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Key Issues
1. Connecting emotionally with your stakeholders.
2. Avoid psychological responses that inhibit success.
3. Apply critical thinking when presenting analytical results.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult
undertaking which, more than anything else, will
determine its successful outcome."
— William James

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Don't Fall for Bad Logic! (Unless It's to Your Advantage)
Appeal to emotion Burden of proof
Ad hominem

16. 15 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Logical Fallacies That Impact a Data-Driven Approach
Logical Fallacy Description and Impact Example of Approach to Overcoming Fallacy
Argument From
Incredulity
 This is the logical fallacy of basing an argument on personal disbelief.
 A decision cannot go forward because it contradicts the point of view of the
misinformed individual.
 Engage with multiple stakeholders. Compile anecdotes and
share stories.
 Build a combination of information and analysis that
addresses objections.
Correlation Proves
Causation
 A faulty assumption that a correlation between two variables implies that one
causes the other.
 Action is taken based on a mistaken premise.
 Validate that the correlation between two (or more) effects is causal.
 Use A/B testing to run trials before proceeding with a more
broad-ranging initiative.
Base Rate Fallacy  Making a probability judgment based on conditional relationships, without taking
into account the effect of prior status.
 The starting conditions are misjudged, leading to unreasonable or
invalid expectations.
 Confirm the starting position before any action is taken.
 Measure the rate of change (ratios), rather than absolute values.
False Authority  Using an expert of dubious credentials, or using only one opinion to sell a product
or idea.
 Wrong solutions are adopted for the wrong problems because they were
recommended by an "authority."
 Conduct broad research. Seek multiple opinions to validate different
points of view and come to a consensus.
 Identify relevant substantiating evidence from other relevant
expert parties,
 Validate and satisfy yourself that the experts being consulted do
indeed have the relevant experience.
Anecdotal Fallacy  Using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of sound reasoning
or compelling evidence.
 An anecdote is not data.
 Beware of testimonials.
 Seek specific and validated data with multiple data points that
identify a trend.
 Use scenario planning and what-if analysis to test concepts
before proceeding.
False Dichotomy  Two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options, when in
reality there may be others.
 A decision is forced without looking at other alternatives.
 Examine different scenarios to evaluate pros and cons.
 Use limited-scale trials with control groups to test different scenarios
and compare results.

17. 16 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Critical Thinking
Critical thinking is the ability to think clearly and rationally about
what to do or what to believe. It includes the ability to engage in
reflective and independent thinking. Someone with critical thinking skills
is able to do the following:
1. Understand the logical connections between ideas.
2. Identify, construct and evaluate arguments.
3. Detect inconsistencies and common mistakes in reasoning.
4. Solve problems systematically.
5. Identify the relevance and importance of ideas.
6. Reflect on one's own beliefs and values — and challenge them.

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Tell Stories
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dandechiaro/4861048655/

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Gartner
Predicts
By 2016, successful transformation program leaders
will direct 60% of the program budget to
organizational/business process change activities

20. 19 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
 Connect emotionally with stakeholders,
using both collective and personal
benefits to increase engagement.
 Avoid psychological responses that
inhibit engagement with data.
 Apply critical thinking when presenting
analytics results, to overcome logical
fallacies and decision biases.
 Tell stories!
Recommendations
"Maybe stories are just data
with a soul."
— Brene Brown

21. 20 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Gartner Research
 Take an Emotional Approach to Business Analytics to Develop a
Data-Driven Culture
Alan D. Duncan (G00278411)
 How to Establish a Data-Driven Culture in the Digital Workplace
Alan D. Duncan and Frank Buytendijk (G00275916)
 Accelerate Digital Workplace Momentum by Understanding How the
Brain Works
Carol Rozwell and Elise Olding (G00263290)
 Maverick* Research: Don't Fall for Bad Logic — Unless It's to
Your Advantage
Frank Buytendijk (G00277810)
 Maverick* Research: Why Decision Makers Should Care Less About Data
and More About Their Gut
Debra Logan | Carol Rozwell | Bard Papegaaij (G002777130)

22. 21 © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Reading
 Thinking Fast And Slow
Daniel Kahneman
 Thank You For Arguing
Jay Heinrichs
 Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
Robert B. Cialdini
 Philosophy: The Classics
Nigel Warburton