Supporting decision making for sustainable resource management in the Zambezi & Omo Basins Presentation by Caroline van Bers, Geeske Scholz, Christian Knieper and Caroline Lumosi Osnabrück University

1. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
Supporting decision making
for sustainable resource
management in the Zambezi
& Omo Basins
Caroline van Bers, Geeske Scholz,
Christian Knieper and Caroline Lumosi
Osnabrück University

2. PROJECT
OVERVIEW

3. 3
DAFNE Partners
Participant Country
Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland
Politecnico di Milano Italy
International Centre for Research on the Environment and the
Economy
Greece
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium
The University Court of the University of Aberdeen United Kingdom
Osnabrück University Germany
International Water Management Institute IWMI Sri Lanka
African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science Kenya
TBA Ethiopia
University of Zambia Zambia
Universidade Eduardo Mondlane Mozambique
Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH Germany
ATEC-3D Ltd. United Kingdom
European Institute for Participatory Media EV Germany

4. 4
Purpose & Objectives of DAFNE
DAFNE advocates an integrated water resources management
approach, which explicitly addresses the WEF nexus.
It supports the promotion of a green economy in regions where
infrastructure development and expanding agriculture have to be
balanced with local social, economic, and environmental
dimensions.
DAFNE will quantify and analyse the WEF nexus with respect to the
trade-offs between conflicting objectives, such as hydropower
production vs. irrigation and land exploitation vs. conservation.
Overall Objective: to establish a decision-analytic framework
(DAF) for participatory and integrated planning.

5. 5
The Decision-Analytic Framework
The DAF is intended to facilitate social understanding of the
impact and support comparative analysis of alternative pathways.
It will be developed through extensive, quantitative analysis of the
anticipated effects of alternative planning options on the broad
range of heterogeneous and often competing interests in
transboundary river basins.
It will be informed by, improved upon and validated through:
(a) active engagement of stakeholders throughout the process, and
(b) involvement of international and local academic expertise
(natural sciences, water engineering, and environmental economics,
water governance and law)

6. 6
DAFNE Work Package Structure
WP1
COORDINATION & MANAGEMENT
WP3
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
ANALYSIS & MODELLING
WP4
MODELLING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC &
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
WP5
DECISION ANALYTIC
FRAMEWORK
WP6
SYNTHESIS & PATHWAY
TO IMPACT
Direct links
Feedbacks
Secondary feedbacks
WP2
DRIVER of WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
WP7
DISSEMINATION, OUTREACH & KNOW-HOW TRANSFER

7. 7
Two transboundary pilot case studies
ZAMBEZI
Zambezi River = 2,700 km
and the longest east flowing
river in Africa - (Zambia, DR
Congo, Angola, Namibia,
Botswana, Zimbabwe,
Mozambique, Malawi,
Tanzania).
The basin: 1.32 million km2
Four large hydropower dams since the 1970s (Kariba, Cahora
Bassa, Itezhi-Tezhi and Kafue Gorges)
WEF Issues: tension between resource availability and population
density exacerbated by expansion of irrigated agriculture,
additional hydropower schemes and expanding tourism.

8. 8
Two transboundary pilot case studies
OMO
Omo River - 760 km long; 79,000 km2
(Ethiopia to Kenya)
Current & potential issues:
Gibe III dam under construction and
large-scale irrigation schemes for
commercial sugar cane production
• excessive water withdrawal
• drastic drop in the Lake Turkana
water level
• resettlements and land grabbing

9. 9
DAFNE Results
Innovative aspects
1. Advances in environmental monitoring: remote sensing will be
combined with UAV-based data collection to supplement the
currently limited ground monitoring capacity at a low cost;
2. Models and model integration
3. Water management and planning methods
4. Methods and tools to facilitateb and promote stakeholder
engagement and participation in decision making
5. Improved methods for practical interactions between science and
policy leading to a strong applicability of the above innovations
6. Transfer of knowledge on methods, monitoring and modelling
(Geo-portal)

10. WATER
GOVERNANCE
ANALYSES
Work Package 2 & 4

11. 11
Water governance analyses
• WEF nexi in the Omo and Zambezi basins
• Present and future governance
• Focus particularly on formal institutions
• Partners involved:
• Lead: University of Aberdeen (UK)
• Osnabrueck Univ. – Christian & Caroline L.
• Politecnico di Milano (Italy)
• International water Management Institute (Sri
Lanka) – WP2
• African Collaborative Centre for Earth System
Science (Kenya)
• University of Zambia (Zambia)
• Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
(Mozambique)
• Ethiopian partner (tba)

12. 12
WP2: Drivers and Indicators of Water-Energy-
Food Nexus
Task 2.1: Baseline studies and present drivers Task 2.2: Future scenarios, drivers & dev. trajectories
2.1.1: Water availability
2.1.2: Hydropower infrastructure &production
2.1.3: Agriculture, livestock and fisheries
2.1.4: Remote sensing
2.1.5: Environment
2.1.6: Institutional framework of water governance
2.1.7: Demography
2.1.8: Economy, Industry, Mining
2.1.9: Synthesis into baseline scenarios
2.2.1: Climate change scenarios
2.2.2: Future hydropower & hydraulic infrastructures
2.2.3: Agriculture, livestock & fisheries development
2.2.4: Institutional framework of water governance
2.2.5: Demography
2.2.6: Economy, industry and mining
2.2.7: Environmental constraints
2.1.8: Synthesis into alternative basin scenarios
Input to WP3 (WEF nexus models), WP4 (social models), and WP5 (decision-analytic framework)
- National & transboundary
- Gaps and challenges
- Need for improvement
- Potential developments
- Future plans

13. 13
WP4: Modelling social, economic &
institutional developments
Task 4.1: Models of Development of
the Economy
Task 4.2: Models and Principles of
Water Governance
Task 4.3: Models of Environmental
Policy
Task 4.4: Models of Demographic,
Cultural & Social Developments
To be interfaced with WEF nexus model (WP3)
Baseline studies and future scenarios (WP2)
Consistent set of models
(e.g. Sustainable Development Goals
as overarching theme)
4.2 output:
matrix

14. 14
Task 4.4: Models of Demographic, Cultural &
Social Developments
• Two master theses (one
per basin)
• Responsible: Geeske,
Caroline L., Christian
• Main challenges:
• Finding a suitable
problem variable
• Integration with other
models
Causes Problem variable Consequences
Step 1:
Identification
of problem
variable
Step 2:
Adding
causes
Step 3:
Adding
consequences
Step 4:
Identification
of feedback
loops
X
X
X
X
iX i= problem variable
= other variables
Causes Problem variable Consequences
Step 1:
Identification
of problem
variable
Step 2:
Adding
causes
Step 3:
Adding
consequences
Step 4:
Identification
of feedback
loops
X
X
X
X
iX i= problem variable
= other variables Vennix 1996
Problem of
Water Scarcity
Quality of Water
Water Demand
Rainfall
Ambient
Temperature
Climate Change
+
-
+
-+
-
Cost of Water
Standard of Living
Consumer
Dissatisfaction
Conflict
Amongst Users
Water Quantities
Environment
Development of
Further Sources
Reuse
Desalination
Treated
Domestic Effluent
Greywater Within
Household
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+ +
+
-
-
+
Water
Conservation-
Demand
Management
Leakage
+
-
Public Participation
(to reduce wastage)
+
Institutional Problems
(Fragmentation of Water
Sector)
Pressure from
Users
Lack of Strategic Policy
Implementation and
Planning
Environmental
Threats
-
-
Lack of Incentives
Lack of Proper Control
and Accountability of
Water Utilities
-
-
Water Use in
Domestic/Agriculture/Industry/Tourism
Sector
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
Prioritization of
Sectors
+ +
-
+
+
-
-
Subsidies
+
R
B
Environmental
Degradation Loop
Supply -
Environment Loop
B
Desalination
Supply Loop
B
Reuse Supply
Loop
B
Demand
Management Loop
R
Demand
Management
Adaptation Loop
+
B
Cost Loop
B
Participation -
Environment Loop
B
Participation -
Conservation Loop
(Halbe et al., in review)

15. SYNTHESIS AND
PATHWAY TO
IMPACT
Work Package 6

16. 16
Objectives of WP6
The main goal of work package 6 is to integrate and apply the project results
How is this done? We will assess the pathways (provided by WP5) and test
them with stakeholders in a Virtual Negotiation Lab (VNL)
The aim of the VNL is to collectively come up with solutions.
In the VNL we will compare and contrast ->
a) natural resource management practices and
b) the operational aspects of the governance systems (what works, what does
not work, why, why not)
The goal of the VNL is to:
a) replicate real world scenarios of both the social and political context in
the basin
b) represent each country’s national interest on resource management
issues (virtually)
c) deliberate and ‘negotiate’ potential solutions (so looking at what could
ideally work)

17. 17
The key ingredients of WP 6
Virtual Negotiation Lab – VNL:
developing the VNL on time, face-
to-face meetings and online
platform for engagement of
stakeholders
Stakeholders – ensuring their
commitment and willingness to
participate through the process
[face-to-face and online]
Data and input from other work
packages, esp. WP5

18. 18
Our role
Conduct an actor mapping and analysis – sector, organization – full
representation even across gender and minority groups
Stakeholder coordination and engagement within the project
Synthesis of VNL results for input into other work packages -> comparative
analysis of solutions, gaps and limitation of VNL process
Assess the learning impact and processes of the DAFNE project

19. 19
From a research perspective …
We are interested in understanding and assessing
a) Social learning processes, outcomes and impacts
within the project -> the role social learning could
play in resource use conflicts
b) Investigating relational and contextual aspects of
social learning (trust, power dynamics,
values/norms) and how they shape social learning
outcomes
c) Perhaps even monitoring convergent [constructive]
and divergent [destructive] learning outcomes of the
DAFNE project?

20. 20
Challenges in WP 6
Facilitation and active
stakeholders engagement
within the VNL
Preventing and mediating
potential conflicts among
stakeholders

21. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project