Cranberry bog weather conditions and weather-related stress were investigated for development of crop yield prediction models and models to predict daily weather conditions in the bog. Field investigations and data gathering were completed at the Rutgers University Blueberry/Cranberry Research Center experimental bogs in Chatsworth, New Jersey. Study indicated that although cranberries generally exhibit little or no stomatal response to changing atmospheric conditions, the evaluation of weather-related stress could be accomplished via use of micrometeorological data. Definition of weather -related stress was made by establishing critical thresholds of the frequencies of occurrence, and magnitudes of, temperature and precipitation in the bog based on values determined by a review of the literature and a grower questionnaire. Stress frequencies were correlated with cranberry yield to develop predictive models based on the previous season's yield, prior season data, prior and current season data, current season data; and prior and current season data through July 31 of the current season. The predictive ability of the prior season models was best and could be used in crop planning and production. Further examination of bog micrometeorological data permitted the isolation of those weather conditions conducive to cranberry scald and allowed for the institution of a pilot scald advisory program during the 1991 season. The micrometeorological data from the bog was also used to develop models to predict daily canopy temperature and precipitation, based on upper air data, for grower use. Models were developed for each month for maximum and minimum temperatures and for precipitation and generally performed well. The modeling of bog weather conditions is an important first step toward daily prediction of cranberry weather-related stress.
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Cranberry 2011-ru-show
1. Scald & Climate Change โ
What is our plan of action?
Dr. Paul J. Croft, MeteorologistPutting the pieces togetherโฆ
โข What we (think) we know
โข Relations we need to know
โข Scald Events (& the future)
โข Will combinations change?
โข Forecasting more scald?
โข Conceptual Framework
โข Climate Change โ Creating
a Plan of Action for the future
2. ๏ผ All berries/fruit (even vegetables) susceptible
๏ผ Field v. harvest v. production v. treatment
๏ผ Fungal contributions (e.g., G. Vaccini 1889)
๏ผ โSteamโ scald and โHeatโ scald
๏ผEnvironmental Conditions
๏ผ Management Practices
๏ผ Cultivar & Phenophase
๏ผTime of day/Duration
๏ผ Mitigation/Prevention
(Caveat: Much evidence but little comprehensive field/lab or experimental work)
Damage: Superficial injury to โcookedโ on the vineโฆ
Diagnosis: Scald โ Blast โ Rot โ Relations
Factors: Heat โ Cold โ Storage - Processing
3. What exactly is happening?
๏ Physiological Breakdown
๏ Fruit stage of development
๏ Coloration, surface texture
๏ Cooling mechanisms of plant
๏ Due to Environmental โShockโ of the plant system
๏ Intense solar radiation, excessive field/canopy
temperatures, & varying wet/dry combinations
๏ โActivationโ of โever-presentโ fungus
Identification & Collateral Damage
๏ Lightly colored โwatery areaโ on surface of cranberry
๏ Multiple spots, presentation โsideโ (link to irrigation water & โsteamingโ?)
๏ Surface lesion enlarges, berry softens, and turns brown
๏ Berry โRotโ sets-in and fruit becomes misshapen, soft-mushy
๏ Any flowers, shrivel/die-back = โBlastโ
๏ Any leaves, discoloration = damage/die-back (red rust, rose mildew)
๏ Plant and berries susceptible to additional injuries/pathogens/insects
๏ Large variability within/between bogs & according to management practices
4. Relations we need to knowโฆ
Cranberry Physiology Physical Environment
๏ Cultivar behaviors vary
๏ Phenophase (berry/plant)
๏ Presence & prevalence of fungus
๏ Stress level (stomatal โfailureโ)
๏ Plant water partitioning and
demand (root, leaf, stem, fruit)
๏ Heat shock proteins (cold too)
๏ Sugar & Mineral contents
๏ Tissue/membrane & physical
characteristics of plant system
๏ Berry โpresentationโ & time of
day; solar spectrum definition
๏ Fruit & field temperatures
๏ Duration & frequency of exposure
๏ Bog soil properties/conditions
๏ Management irrigation/cooling
๏ Water table level/management
๏ Edge effects; crop area affected
๏ Herbicide, insecticide, fungicide
applications; aeration practices
How do we find out? => Field, Lab, and Experimental
5. โฆhow do these relate to climate?
Cranberry Physiology Physical Environment
๏ Phenophase Changes โ fruit
stage/color are important to
occurrence
๏ Physiological Responses Change
โ disorders, maturity, nutritional
imbalances
๏ Bio-factors change with Climate
โ pathological, animal, genetic
variation, entomological, and
alterations
๏ Climate/Weather and local
variations all change across
small regions
๏ Water relationships and light
interactions; cultivation change
๏ Mechanical damage, sanding
responses change
๏ Chemical residues, growing
medium, vegetative matter
What are the risks? How are they quantified?
Will risks change over time or with climate? How will we know?
6. What do we already know?
Temperature Solar Radiation
๏ Consider number of average
high temp days of 90 or more
by cranberry regions in U.S.
(vs. highest temps on record)
๏ Consider percent annual
sunshine received (vs. cloud
cover, duration, and similar)
Letโs focus on the Physical Environment and Climate
Consider Climates of Pac-NW, WI, MA, and NJ regionsโฆ
Will these be changing?
Which region is more prone to scald now? In the future?
7. Rainfall, Moisture, Hailโฆ
๏ Mean annual rainfall across
the U.S. (vs. season and mean
values of RH or dewpoint)
and compare to summer only
What are the other mean conditions and variations?
What else do we already know?
Will changes in these help/hurt?
8. Tropical Storms/Hurricanes
๏ Storms โtypicalโ each year
๏ How close to coastline
๏ Indirect effects are common
(e.g., subsidence clearing and higher
temperatures, wind speeds increase)
What are the principle threats from severe weather?
What else do we already know?
More or less expected?
NOAA
USGS
9. Scald Events (& the future)โฆ
Summer 2010
Temps above
โDroughtโ & Rains
Summer 1992
Temps normal
Rainfall
Summer 1990
Temps normal
Wx conditions
Do the summers reflect climate change or not?
10. So do we have a
โSmoking Gunโ?
โข High Pressure Day to Day
โข High Solar Radiation
โข High Temperatures
โข Low Dewpoints first
โข High Dewpoints later
โข Light Winds most of period
Aug 29 โ> Sep 4
Will more summers look like this or worse?
How do we study in a
changing climate?
โข Climate Change is evident
โข Climate Change is natural
โข Climate by definition is
change and variation
โข Micro-Climate important
โข Bog is micro-climateโฆ
11. โNearbyโ in Pennsylvania: UV-B
Was it Aug 28-29 or Aug 31-Sep 1 or Sep 2-3 orโฆ???
Will UV-B exposure be increased? More frequently occur?
Aug 26 โ Sep 6, 2010
12. Bog data/information is importantโฆ
How will the bog microclimate change?
โข Use from 1990 scald event in NJ (Aug 1-2-3-4)
โข Consider fruit with regard to temperature,
moisture, and solar conditions collectively
โข How might scald be more common and why?
Summer 1990
13. Why is 1990 of any relevance to us now?
โข Bog stress level
โข Stomatal behaviors
โข Management practices
โข Weather conditions
โข Role of T, Humidity,
Wind values?
โข Duration of exposure?
โข UV/Vis impacts?
โข AQ/Ozone impacts?
โข Sea Breeze?
Summer 1990
14. Will the Combinations Change?
(and how much variation might there be across NJ in time/space?)
Cranberry Bog
Environment๏ Canopy conditions of plants
๏ Presence of fungus/other
๏ Soil Water Potential
๏ Soil Temperatures
๏ Management Practices for
irrigation/sprinkler or cooling
๏ Nutrients and Physiology
๏ Atmospheric (Wx) Conditions
๏ Evaporative Demand/Wind speed
๏ Lack of rain (or too much prior)?
๏ Low dewpoint temperatures
๏ Solar Radiation (amount,
duration, exposure/presentation)
Micro-Meteorology/Climatology & Local Physiography
โฆor a โFamilyโ of scald behaviors due
to various combinations of factorsโฆ
Management
Environmental Physiological
Wikipedia
15. Forecast is for more scald?
Method developed at Rutgers University
Focus was on maximum temperatures
and lower dewpoints with evaporative demand
and wind speeds (1990 event data analysis)
Whatโs been accomplished since then?
Network data stations, bog monitoring, and
revised management practicesโฆyet still problems?
How do we address climate change in context of scald predictions?
Do we know whether more scald will occur and why?
Should we be using additional data such as the UV Index, AQ Index, & Ozone data?
Should we be using gridded/GIS data from the NWS/NOAA Climate Models?
Should we be completing some research to find out what we donโt really know?
16. Conceptual Frameworkโฆ
โฆmore stress in the field?
Confounding Factors & Precursors are all known?
Can we Monitor the Activation Mechanisms?
Do we know how these vary with climate?
17. Creating a Climate Change Plan of Action
Simulate Climate Impacts
Modeling & Observational studies to depict what is happening interactively
between plant and environment (as related to field management practices)
Test for Climate Responses/Behaviors
Verification to relate specific damage (physiology) to key factors as observed
in the field and lab and by various experiments and relate to climate change
Actively Remediate the Risks Expected
Controlled trials to show value of prediction/management and to test/verify
specific methods or practices and cost/efficacy and to see which are more
readily adapted to changes in local climates
Track Integrated Management with Climate Change
โBest Practicesโ for combinations of most important environmental & plant
factors to provide climate predictions with use of GIS modeling/visualization
methods and risk assessment to determine changes in susceptibility to scald
18. Dr. Paul J. Croft
Acknowledgements โ School of Environmental and
Life Sciences and the Student Research Assistants
of the Kean University Meteorology Program
If Scald can be managed so can Climate Change
Editor's Notes
Trying to point out that it may be more a matter of combination conditions โwaiting to happenโ rather than simply too hot in the summerโฆ
Illustrates variation between cranberry growing regions and fact that high T and high sun not unusualโฆcommonโฆbut scald not every yearโฆ
Illustrates variation between cranberry growing regions and that rainfall/moisture conditions commonโฆbut scald not every year or location and some regions of US may be more prone than others?
We donโt have to over-think thisโฆwe simply need relevant data and testing to decipher what is going on and whyโฆ