This document provides an overview and analysis of the COVID-19 situation and economic impact in Brazil as of June 26, 2020. It finds that Brazil is experiencing a long plateau period of the virus with most states in a "control zone" of stable growth and ICU occupancy under 60-70%. Going forward, it expects Brazil to follow an "opening and closing" scenario of intermittent suppression measures to control spread as immunity is developed. The economic impact is projected to be high for most industries and services, with agriculture being less impacted.
COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - CompletoBain & Company Brasil
Nova versão do estudo que vem sendo publicado pela nossa Task Force local sobre #Covid19 confirma o cenário de platô para o Brasil e mostra os estados brasileiros continuando o movimento de concentração na zona de “risco controlado”, com ocupação das UTIs em torno de ~70% e com níveis de contaminação mais constantes.
A #COVID19 tem transformado os hábitos de consumo em todo o mundo e impactado diretamente as empresas de varejo, que enfrentam o desafio de contornar as dificuldades operacionais num cenário em que o isolamento social é a medida mais recomendada e o consumidor tem novas demandas a serem atendidas.
Para vencer nesse novo normal, as organizações devem prioritariamente aproveitar dados e análises para tomar melhores decisões nesse cenário de incerteza, entender seu cliente e adaptar-se rapidamente, e investir na automação como forma de ser mais eficiente e entregar mais valor.
The document discusses COVID-19 and its implications for Brazil. It provides context on Bain & Company's focus of enabling rapid decision making during the pandemic. It then analyzes COVID-19's severity compared to past epidemics due to its high spread rate. Global data on cases, fatality rates, and infectivity is presented. Charts show the current status of outbreaks globally and in Latin America. Factors influencing the shape of outbreak curves are explored, comparing experiences internationally to the challenges in South America in controlling spread.
Os choques de demanda e oferta na economia global estão impactando negócios durante a pandemia de #covid19. No #BainWebinar "Procurement Best Practices Through COVID-19", nossos especialistas compartilharão análises sobre o cenário atual e as possíveis ações que permitirão a construção de um fluxo mais adequado com o objetivo mundial.
Para se preparar para as mudanças de comportamento do consumidor e as novas restrições sanitárias que devem surgir no pós-pandemia, os players do mercado de aviação têm trabalhado com múltiplos cenários e avaliam que a retomada deve começar no contexto doméstico. Confira o material preparado pelos nossos sócios na apresentação do webinar "Os possíveis cenários da indústria de aviação".
COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - ShortBain & Company Brasil
Nossa Task Force local sobre #Covid19 apresenta uma atualização do estudo sobre o cenário brasileiro e destaca a longevidade do platô no Brasil, principalmente por conta da reabertura econômica, capaz de gerar aumento da contaminação, e das características locais, como densidade e uso de transporte público.
Brazilians have become more pessimistic about the duration of the pandemic, expecting it to last longer. However, expectations about the financial impact are now matching the real impact. Consumers' routines have remained stable since May, with more time spent on digital entertainment and less time working. Demand is falling compared to the start of the pandemic, with spending on essential categories expected to drop 5-25% long-term. Online spending continues to grow while offline spending declines.
COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - CompletoBain & Company Brasil
Nova versão do estudo que vem sendo publicado pela nossa Task Force local sobre #Covid19 confirma o cenário de platô para o Brasil e mostra os estados brasileiros continuando o movimento de concentração na zona de “risco controlado”, com ocupação das UTIs em torno de ~70% e com níveis de contaminação mais constantes.
A #COVID19 tem transformado os hábitos de consumo em todo o mundo e impactado diretamente as empresas de varejo, que enfrentam o desafio de contornar as dificuldades operacionais num cenário em que o isolamento social é a medida mais recomendada e o consumidor tem novas demandas a serem atendidas.
Para vencer nesse novo normal, as organizações devem prioritariamente aproveitar dados e análises para tomar melhores decisões nesse cenário de incerteza, entender seu cliente e adaptar-se rapidamente, e investir na automação como forma de ser mais eficiente e entregar mais valor.
The document discusses COVID-19 and its implications for Brazil. It provides context on Bain & Company's focus of enabling rapid decision making during the pandemic. It then analyzes COVID-19's severity compared to past epidemics due to its high spread rate. Global data on cases, fatality rates, and infectivity is presented. Charts show the current status of outbreaks globally and in Latin America. Factors influencing the shape of outbreak curves are explored, comparing experiences internationally to the challenges in South America in controlling spread.
Os choques de demanda e oferta na economia global estão impactando negócios durante a pandemia de #covid19. No #BainWebinar "Procurement Best Practices Through COVID-19", nossos especialistas compartilharão análises sobre o cenário atual e as possíveis ações que permitirão a construção de um fluxo mais adequado com o objetivo mundial.
Para se preparar para as mudanças de comportamento do consumidor e as novas restrições sanitárias que devem surgir no pós-pandemia, os players do mercado de aviação têm trabalhado com múltiplos cenários e avaliam que a retomada deve começar no contexto doméstico. Confira o material preparado pelos nossos sócios na apresentação do webinar "Os possíveis cenários da indústria de aviação".
COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - ShortBain & Company Brasil
Nossa Task Force local sobre #Covid19 apresenta uma atualização do estudo sobre o cenário brasileiro e destaca a longevidade do platô no Brasil, principalmente por conta da reabertura econômica, capaz de gerar aumento da contaminação, e das características locais, como densidade e uso de transporte público.
Brazilians have become more pessimistic about the duration of the pandemic, expecting it to last longer. However, expectations about the financial impact are now matching the real impact. Consumers' routines have remained stable since May, with more time spent on digital entertainment and less time working. Demand is falling compared to the start of the pandemic, with spending on essential categories expected to drop 5-25% long-term. Online spending continues to grow while offline spending declines.
Actualizamos el estudio Consumer Pulse, de Bain & Company, en el que monitoreamos los principales cambios y las tendencias en los hábitos de los consumidores en América del Sur durante la pandemia, especialmente en Chile.
Diaporama utilisé par deux experts d'Euler Hermes (Ana Boata, directrice de la recherche macroéconomique et Maxime Lemerle, directeur de la recherche secteur et insolvabilité) lors du webinaire qu'ils ont animé pour le Forum financier, le 30 novembre 2020.
Statement by president Cyril Ramaphosa on COVID19 risk strategySABC News
- South Africa will lower its coronavirus alert level from 5 to 4 on May 1st, allowing some economic activity to resume subject to strict health measures.
- Businesses will be permitted to operate again under strict protocols to protect employees, with operations resuming in phases of no more than 1/3 of workforce.
- Schools and other education institutions will gradually reopen as announced by relevant Ministers.
- International travel will remain banned except for returning citizens. No inter-provincial travel apart from goods and funerals. Public transport operates at limited capacity.
- Gatherings apart from funerals and work remain prohibited. Elderly and vulnerable must stay home. Cigarette sales now permitted.
The impact on covid 19 on business and how to reposition for success - intens...Intense
The spread of the COVID-19 virus has caused governments around the world including Nigeria to impose lockdowns on movement and this has affected most businesses adversely. We did some research to find out the challenges businesses are experiencing at this time and what areas they need help in to adapt to these drastic changes.
This presentation contains insights on what businesses can expect to happen in the short, medium and long term while also providing solutions to thrive in the new economy which will be largely digital.
SA Lockdown: Risk adjusted strategy for economic activity 2020-04-22.pdfSABC News
The document discusses a risk-adjusted strategy for easing lockdown restrictions and restarting economic activity in South Africa. It proposes implementing an alert level system with clearly defined levels of restriction that can be tightened or relaxed based on epidemiological trends. The levels would range from level 1 with low virus spread and high health system readiness to level 5 with high virus spread and low readiness. It also outlines criteria for prioritizing which sectors can resume operations, focusing on sectors with low transmission risk and severe economic impact or high economic value. The criteria are ranked from transmission risk to economic impact to value.
Filipino consumers generally remained as optimistic in October as they were in April; however, optimism among lower-income groups declined significantly.
As the government’s COVID-19 restrictions ease, Filipino consumers are cautiously resuming spending activity. While overall optimism remained the same from April to October, optimism in the lowest income group dropped significantly, while those in the highest income group increased. Optimism among 20- to 24-year-olds also declined. Additionally, approximately 50 percent of respondents believe their finances will be impacted for at least six more months, up from only about 10 percent last April. Overall decreases in spending are expected to soften after the pandemic, but most categories will likely see spending declines linger for the long term.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in the Philippines from April 17 to 20, and October 1 to 12, 2020.
This document provides a summary of key developments from the Gavi CEO Board Update meeting on June 24-25, 2020. It discusses the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the success of Gavi's replenishment and vaccine summit, Gavi's role in the COVID-19 response including efforts to ensure equitable access to vaccines, and priorities around demand generation, communities, gender and digital engagement. It also provides updates on Gavi's 2019 progress and the conclusion of the pneumococcal AMC pilot.
The document provides a daily summary of media coverage from June 28, 2022 relating to the Department of Health in the Philippines. It analyzed 132 news articles and reports, finding the majority focused on increasing COVID-19 case numbers, the country's alert level system, booster shots, projections from OCTA Research, and the country's pandemic response. The top 5 topics covered case updates, the alert level system, booster shots, OCTA projections of rising NCR cases, and criticisms of the country's pandemic response. The DOH will continue encouraging vaccinations and boosters to strengthen protection as cases may rise due to increased mobility.
The document discusses Alberta's shift from a pandemic to endemic approach to COVID-19. It provides context for the decision by examining broader impacts of measures like mental health effects, drops in cancer screening and immunizations, and increasing issues like opioid deaths and surgical backlogs. It also reviews factors considered like vaccine effectiveness, modeling of hospitalizations, and evidence that severity and impacts on children are not increased by the Delta variant. The approach aims to integrate COVID-19 management with other respiratory viruses while maintaining health system capacity.
Boston consulting group epidemic projections summarySlava Baranskyi
The document projects the evolution of COVID-19 cases for top 20 markets based on predictive modeling. It estimates key dates such as potential lockdown start and end dates as well as peak infection dates for each country. These projections are based on current data and assumptions but are subject to significant uncertainty given the evolving nature of the pandemic.
This document provides a 3-paragraph summary of a McKinsey & Company report on COVID-19:
The report discusses COVID-19 as primarily a humanitarian crisis that has severely impacted communities in multiple continents. It notes that over 3,500 deaths have resulted from over 105,000 reported cases, with Wuhan and Hubei province being the most affected locations. Solving this humanitarian challenge is the top priority.
The document is intended to provide facts and insights on the current COVID-19 situation to help decision-makers understand best practices. It discusses the implications of COVID-19 for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. It outlines challenges these groups may face and how they can respond to protect people and navigate
The document summarizes media monitoring reports from June 30, 2022 related to the Department of Health in the Philippines. It outlines the total number of news articles monitored and provides a breakdown of topics. The top 5 trending topics were MPHS, booster shots, country risk classification, medical assistants, and case updates. For each topic, it describes the relevant news and identifies any potential issues and recommends actions. It also lists other prominent topics covered such as the alleged secretary of health, dengue cases, vaccine progress, second booster shots, and the alert level system.
Different Covid-10 Scenarios for Business Decision-makersAgileTech Vietnam
As an organization responds to COVID-19, resilient leaders should survive the crisis, not thrive. The key to that is to evaluate planning actions within the context of geographic location and different economic scenarios.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and inter...semualkaira
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The COVID-19 crisis is threatening the lives and well-being of the global community. Health, political, societal, and business leaders must drive an integrated response to navigate, manage, and lead through it.
The World Health Organization has declared the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The declaration of PHEIC is rare. Upon its designation, various government agencies, healthcare institutions and other stakeholders are officially organized to act and escalate measures in collaboration with each other to combat the issue. The decision was made at a point as 171 persons in China have succumbed to the illness and the disease has spread to at least 18 other nations.
PHEIC events of the past: Ebola, H1N1 Swine Flu, Polio
WHO has deployed the emergency designation five times since the rules were implemented in the mid-2000s:
Ebola virus, 2019, Zika virus, 2016, Polio outbreak, 2014. Ebola outbreak, 2014, Swine flu, 2009
Learn more about the World Health Organization and the PHEIC designation by reading this article from Bare Sky Marketing
- The initial spread of COVID-19 in Brazil was mostly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability rather than population age or health risk factors. States with high socioeconomic vulnerability had higher initial COVID-19 mortality despite efforts to expand health system capacity and enact policies.
- Over time, differences in policy response converged across states, while physical distancing and lower death rates became relatively greater in municipalities with the highest socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
- Existing socioeconomic inequalities in Brazil have affected the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, disproportionately burdening states and municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability. Targeted policies are needed to protect vulnerable populations.
Actualizamos el estudio Consumer Pulse, de Bain & Company, en el que monitoreamos los principales cambios y las tendencias en los hábitos de los consumidores en América del Sur durante la pandemia, especialmente en Chile.
Diaporama utilisé par deux experts d'Euler Hermes (Ana Boata, directrice de la recherche macroéconomique et Maxime Lemerle, directeur de la recherche secteur et insolvabilité) lors du webinaire qu'ils ont animé pour le Forum financier, le 30 novembre 2020.
Statement by president Cyril Ramaphosa on COVID19 risk strategySABC News
- South Africa will lower its coronavirus alert level from 5 to 4 on May 1st, allowing some economic activity to resume subject to strict health measures.
- Businesses will be permitted to operate again under strict protocols to protect employees, with operations resuming in phases of no more than 1/3 of workforce.
- Schools and other education institutions will gradually reopen as announced by relevant Ministers.
- International travel will remain banned except for returning citizens. No inter-provincial travel apart from goods and funerals. Public transport operates at limited capacity.
- Gatherings apart from funerals and work remain prohibited. Elderly and vulnerable must stay home. Cigarette sales now permitted.
The impact on covid 19 on business and how to reposition for success - intens...Intense
The spread of the COVID-19 virus has caused governments around the world including Nigeria to impose lockdowns on movement and this has affected most businesses adversely. We did some research to find out the challenges businesses are experiencing at this time and what areas they need help in to adapt to these drastic changes.
This presentation contains insights on what businesses can expect to happen in the short, medium and long term while also providing solutions to thrive in the new economy which will be largely digital.
SA Lockdown: Risk adjusted strategy for economic activity 2020-04-22.pdfSABC News
The document discusses a risk-adjusted strategy for easing lockdown restrictions and restarting economic activity in South Africa. It proposes implementing an alert level system with clearly defined levels of restriction that can be tightened or relaxed based on epidemiological trends. The levels would range from level 1 with low virus spread and high health system readiness to level 5 with high virus spread and low readiness. It also outlines criteria for prioritizing which sectors can resume operations, focusing on sectors with low transmission risk and severe economic impact or high economic value. The criteria are ranked from transmission risk to economic impact to value.
Filipino consumers generally remained as optimistic in October as they were in April; however, optimism among lower-income groups declined significantly.
As the government’s COVID-19 restrictions ease, Filipino consumers are cautiously resuming spending activity. While overall optimism remained the same from April to October, optimism in the lowest income group dropped significantly, while those in the highest income group increased. Optimism among 20- to 24-year-olds also declined. Additionally, approximately 50 percent of respondents believe their finances will be impacted for at least six more months, up from only about 10 percent last April. Overall decreases in spending are expected to soften after the pandemic, but most categories will likely see spending declines linger for the long term.
These exhibits are based on survey data collected in the Philippines from April 17 to 20, and October 1 to 12, 2020.
This document provides a summary of key developments from the Gavi CEO Board Update meeting on June 24-25, 2020. It discusses the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the success of Gavi's replenishment and vaccine summit, Gavi's role in the COVID-19 response including efforts to ensure equitable access to vaccines, and priorities around demand generation, communities, gender and digital engagement. It also provides updates on Gavi's 2019 progress and the conclusion of the pneumococcal AMC pilot.
The document provides a daily summary of media coverage from June 28, 2022 relating to the Department of Health in the Philippines. It analyzed 132 news articles and reports, finding the majority focused on increasing COVID-19 case numbers, the country's alert level system, booster shots, projections from OCTA Research, and the country's pandemic response. The top 5 topics covered case updates, the alert level system, booster shots, OCTA projections of rising NCR cases, and criticisms of the country's pandemic response. The DOH will continue encouraging vaccinations and boosters to strengthen protection as cases may rise due to increased mobility.
The document discusses Alberta's shift from a pandemic to endemic approach to COVID-19. It provides context for the decision by examining broader impacts of measures like mental health effects, drops in cancer screening and immunizations, and increasing issues like opioid deaths and surgical backlogs. It also reviews factors considered like vaccine effectiveness, modeling of hospitalizations, and evidence that severity and impacts on children are not increased by the Delta variant. The approach aims to integrate COVID-19 management with other respiratory viruses while maintaining health system capacity.
Boston consulting group epidemic projections summarySlava Baranskyi
The document projects the evolution of COVID-19 cases for top 20 markets based on predictive modeling. It estimates key dates such as potential lockdown start and end dates as well as peak infection dates for each country. These projections are based on current data and assumptions but are subject to significant uncertainty given the evolving nature of the pandemic.
This document provides a 3-paragraph summary of a McKinsey & Company report on COVID-19:
The report discusses COVID-19 as primarily a humanitarian crisis that has severely impacted communities in multiple continents. It notes that over 3,500 deaths have resulted from over 105,000 reported cases, with Wuhan and Hubei province being the most affected locations. Solving this humanitarian challenge is the top priority.
The document is intended to provide facts and insights on the current COVID-19 situation to help decision-makers understand best practices. It discusses the implications of COVID-19 for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. It outlines challenges these groups may face and how they can respond to protect people and navigate
The document summarizes media monitoring reports from June 30, 2022 related to the Department of Health in the Philippines. It outlines the total number of news articles monitored and provides a breakdown of topics. The top 5 trending topics were MPHS, booster shots, country risk classification, medical assistants, and case updates. For each topic, it describes the relevant news and identifies any potential issues and recommends actions. It also lists other prominent topics covered such as the alleged secretary of health, dengue cases, vaccine progress, second booster shots, and the alert level system.
Different Covid-10 Scenarios for Business Decision-makersAgileTech Vietnam
As an organization responds to COVID-19, resilient leaders should survive the crisis, not thrive. The key to that is to evaluate planning actions within the context of geographic location and different economic scenarios.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and inter...semualkaira
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled.
The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in all areas at the national and international level is undeniable, the aftermath of this “tornado” will be visible for a long time, even when the infection manages to be controlled. Two aspects of great interest to those of us who work in the area of oncology must be considered: on the one hand, the need to contain and control the devastating effects of the disease forced a reorganization in the operation of services, giving priority to COVID, conversion of medical units to hospitals COVID created a high-risk scenario for patients with other types of pathologies; This reorganization includes the allocation of large amounts of budget to COVID areas to the detriment of patients with other types of equally serious diseases - such as cancer, among others - who cannot wait for care in better times.
The COVID-19 crisis is threatening the lives and well-being of the global community. Health, political, societal, and business leaders must drive an integrated response to navigate, manage, and lead through it.
The World Health Organization has declared the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The declaration of PHEIC is rare. Upon its designation, various government agencies, healthcare institutions and other stakeholders are officially organized to act and escalate measures in collaboration with each other to combat the issue. The decision was made at a point as 171 persons in China have succumbed to the illness and the disease has spread to at least 18 other nations.
PHEIC events of the past: Ebola, H1N1 Swine Flu, Polio
WHO has deployed the emergency designation five times since the rules were implemented in the mid-2000s:
Ebola virus, 2019, Zika virus, 2016, Polio outbreak, 2014. Ebola outbreak, 2014, Swine flu, 2009
Learn more about the World Health Organization and the PHEIC designation by reading this article from Bare Sky Marketing
- The initial spread of COVID-19 in Brazil was mostly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability rather than population age or health risk factors. States with high socioeconomic vulnerability had higher initial COVID-19 mortality despite efforts to expand health system capacity and enact policies.
- Over time, differences in policy response converged across states, while physical distancing and lower death rates became relatively greater in municipalities with the highest socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
- Existing socioeconomic inequalities in Brazil have affected the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, disproportionately burdening states and municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability. Targeted policies are needed to protect vulnerable populations.
The pandemic continues to expand. More than 175 countries and territories have reported cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Case growth has accelerated to more than 735,000 cases and 35,000 deaths as
of March 30. Some geographies have a handful of cases, others with early community transmission have a few hundred, and those with uncontrolled, widespread transmission have tens of thousands. Governments have launched unprecedented public- health and economic responses. The situation evolves by the day.
Adherencia al tarv en am latina y caribeRosa Alcayaga
This systematic review and meta-analysis examined adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis included 53 studies published between 2005-2016 involving over 22,000 individuals across 25 countries. The overall adherence rate was estimated to be 70%, similar to rates in high-income regions. Adherence was higher with shorter recall periods and in lower income countries. Common barriers to adherence included substance abuse, depression, unemployment and pill burden. The review suggests adherence in the region may be below the level needed for long-term viral suppression.
Taggert J. Brooks, PhD, Professor and Chair of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, presented on the local economics of COVID-19. The presentation covered the current state of the virus and timeline, the economic policy response through monetary and fiscal actions, and reopening plans. It showed data on rising unemployment claims in La Crosse County and discussed the short and long-term local economic impacts. The presentation concluded that a return to normalcy will require a vaccine, improved treatment options, herd immunity, or expanded testing and contact tracing.
President Ramaphosa COVID-19 address 13 May 2020SABC News
This coronavirus is taking a heavy toll not only on the health of our people, but also on our
people’s ability to earn a living, to feed themselves and their families, to learn and to
develop, and to enjoy many of the basic freedoms that we daily take for granted.
Similar to COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - Short (20)
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COVID-19 Fact Base and Potential Implications for Brazil - Short
1. COVID-19 Fact base
and potential implications
for Brazil
June 26th, 2020
Copyright @ 2020 Bain & Company. All rights reserved.
Any use of this material without specific permission of Bain & Company is strictly prohibited
2. 2Bain&Co - COVID19 Brazil POV - ...SAO
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Context for these materials
• COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis and a global challenge. In this interconnected world, we have seen the virus spread
rapidly, and we are still gathering information to understand both its origins and its impact
• We are grateful for the businesses, governments, non-profits, and individuals around the world that are working to
protect those that are sick or in danger of becoming so, and to “flatten the curve”
• There is a lot that is still unknown about COVID-19; these materials are an attempt to shed light on what we know so
far to help businesses make informed decisions
– The top priority for all businesses is to protect the safety and health of employees and customers, for which there are WHO, CDC, and
other national guidelines
– Bain is not an expert on epidemiology and containment policies, however, given our 45+ years of experience advising companies during both
economic booms and busts, we are committed to spreading accurate and timely information to reduce the unknowns for businesses
and business leaders
• Our focus is to enable companies to make rapid and practical decisions; with a global pandemic that is rapidly
spreading and changing, now is not the time for detailed decision making; the need for speed and the right directional
strategy outweighs the need to get intricate details right, and we are committed to helping business leaders navigate the
path forward
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Global landscape and implications for Brazil:
A different progression story
• It is clear by now that South American countries will not follow the same trajectory (the bell-shaped curve) of most
Asian or European countries
– Even after more than 80 days of restriction measures, the peak does not seem to have been reached even under high mobility reduction (e.g.
Colombia, Peru and Argentina)
• Countries adopted different strategies to control the contagiousness level (R0); different combinations of favorable
demographics, the widespread use of technology/testing and harsh suppression measures were needed to take the
R0 below 1 and slowdown the curve
– Although there were some correct measures in places like early mobility restriction and even good testing levels in a few countries (e.g.
Colombia and Chile), this was not enough to compensate that higher starting R0
– Besides, not all mobility is the same, while in Europe people that needed to move was using their cars or even bikes, in South America the
mobility was in crowded buses and for longer distances
– Lastly, South American countries didn’t use technology in their favor – low/average testing levels, no use of tracing and no use of target
quarantine policies
• In summary, to compensate for the higher R0 starting point, South America should have used more weapons to
control the virus
– Brazil, in particular, has always had low testing levels, not enough mobility reduction in the high dense areas and no use of tracing
technologies
What is the current situation and outlook for Brazil?
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
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Brazil
What we expected… and what we see now
What we expected... ...and what we see now
• A long plateau of the disease would be maintained over the
following 4-8 weeks at least, driven by states in multiple stages of
the spread
• The epidemiological perspective of a "long plateau scenario”,
driven by states balancing the disease spread and the
economy, has materialized for Brazil as a whole during the past
month and continues to be our most likely scenario
• The plateau has been driven by the different stages in which Brazilian
states find themselves, both in terms of the disease spread and in terms
of government actions
• The “shape of the curve” for each state would be driven
mostly by government actions, in order to balance the
healthcare system capacity vs the economy reopening
– As the disease progressed, we expected most states to trend towards
a “control zone”, with R0 ≈ 1 and ICU occupancy ≈ 60-70%
• Most states (14-18) have converged to the “control zone” in
the past 30 days, reaching R0 ≈ 1 and ICU occupancy ≈ 60-70%
– Most states that were in the medium/high risk areas improved and
progressed towards a “control zone” with suppression and immunity
– States that controlled contamination at a first stage started to release
measures and saw an increase in # of cases
– Only very few states that were in the low or medium risk zone "lost
control" for different reasons and advanced to the high risk zone
• We saw no evidence that more robust mitigation plans would
be put into place, making it very hard for states to control the
spread of the disease after lifting restrictions
– Reaching enough exposure immunity seemed to be the only feasible
way to get to a more controlled level of spread
• States that were heavily impacted in the beginning (AM, PA,
CE, MA) are the only ones to have managed to reduce
contamination considerably without major changes on
suppression and mitigation policies; their exposure immunity
level of ~20% is likely playing a major role in their situation
– There are still no clear signs that robust mitigation plans are “in-the
works” to help with reopening economies
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E
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The SARS hospitalizations metric shows that Brazil remains on a plateau of the disease; after a
drop in weeks 21-22, week 23 (incomplete) already shows numbers trending up again
Source: Fiocruz, Ministry of Health
Epidemiological
Week
Hospitalizations due to SARS per epidemiological week
(k# cases; week of the beginning of symptoms)
A S O F J U N E 2 3
Weeks that
are likely still
considerably
incomplete
on the
reports
Estimated curve
June-11
First wave of exponential growth -
Concentrated in the state capitals initially
more impacted (e.g. SP, RJ, CE, AM, MA, PA)
Increase of contamination due to virus
spread to other capitals, the
countryside and smaller cities
Long plateau - Growth in states that were
spared during initial wave (e.g. MG, RS, PR,
SC, MT, DF) combined with improving conditions
in more severely impacted regions
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E C O N T A M I N A T I O N C U R V E
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Epidemiological status by state on May 25th: As the disease progressed, we expected
most states would trend towards a “control zone”, with R0 ≈ 1 and ICU occupancy ≈ 60-70%
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
GrowingSlowingDown
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7
days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
State position on May 25th
A S O F M A Y 2 5
States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system
collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently
below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E P R E V I O U S S T A T U S
As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to
control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies,
we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with
stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control
7. 7Bain&Co - COVID19 Brazil POV - ...SAO
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Current situation in Brazil: most states are now classified as medium risk and we
expect states to continue orbiting around the “control zone” over the following weeks
0.806545 1.272405 99.6777 11.11
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
Note: R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
GrowingSlowingDown
A S O F J U N E 2 6
As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to
control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies,
we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with
stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control
States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system
collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently
below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E C U R R E N T S T A T U S
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Going forward: The upcoming scenario will vary by state or even micro-regions, but
scenario 2 is the most likely to be the norm, until immunity is reached
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E U P C O M I N G S C E N A R I O
Health System capacity
Scenario 1 – relaxing suppression
Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-19
(# cases)
Epidemiological Week
• Strong peak of contamination
with little response, leading to
exponential case growth
• Probable Collapse of the
healthcare system
Current hospitalizations
Scenario 2 – opening and closing
Health System capacity
Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-19
(# cases)
Epidemiological Week
Current hospitalizations
• Continuous cycles of suppression to control R0
followed by easing of measures and R0 increase
• Staggered curves of BR states lead to plateau
• Healthcare is kept under stress during a
significant period, and contamination only starts to
slowdown due to exposure immunity
Scenario 3 – robust mitigation plan
Health System capacity
Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-19
(# cases)
Epidemiological Week
• Suppression measures are
efficient and slowdown the curve in
the next few weeks
• Mitigation strategy is put in place
and mobility reduction measures are
lifted without new surges
Current hospitalizations
Most likely to be the norm
I L L U S T R A T I V E
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Going forward: In fact, we already see signs that scenario 2 - “opening and closing”
– is the most likely for Brazil, with states struggling to reopen the economy
News reports in the past 15 days have filled-up with headlines about cases picking up and distancing measures being
reinforced after many states started to open up their economies
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E U P C O M I N G S C E N A R I O
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Going forward: Combining effects from all States, the most likely scenario for Brazil
is a long plateau of the disease until exposure immunity starts to play a role
Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-191
(# cases; epidemiological week of the beginning of symptoms) Projections
Epidemiological Week
Note: (1) With SARS Pneumonia symptoms; Source: Brazilian Ministry of Health – Public Health Emergency Operations Center; Bain Estimate.
Healthcare
system capacity
Different stages of COVID-19
spread and government responses
across Brazilian state should
generate a long plateu in the curve
After a significant period, exposure
immunity should help states
reduce the spread more
consistently
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E U P C O M I N G S C E N A R I O
With many states reopening their
economies, we will likely continue
to see cases go up and down for
the following weeks
11. 11Bain&Co - COVID19 Brazil POV - ...SAO
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Manufacture
Transport. &
Storage
Commerce
Economic impact: COVID-19 crisis will hit all sectors at different levels; while agriculture
still has a positive GPD forecast vs 2019, most industries & services will be severely hit
Legend
Note: 1Baseline projection on Feb/20; 2Projection on June/20; 32018 growth vs 2020 Post-COVID projection
Source: LCA GDP Growth projections; WTTC; FGV
2020 GDP growth projection before COVID-191
2020 GDP growth projection after COVID-192
ConstructionTourism3
Agriculture
Industries Services
Financial
Services
Real Estate Public. Adm
High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact
Energy &
Water
Agriculture
Taxes
Other
Services
Information
Services
A S O F J U N E 2 6
Mineral
Extraction
B R A Z I L I A N P E R S P E C T I V E E C O N O M I C I M P A C T
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Global landscape and implications for Brazil:
Lessons from the reopening process
• As government measures are successful and regions are able to control contamination levels, countries are starting to ease restrictions
and mobility starts to return to previous levels. Asian and European countries are moving forward with relaxed quarantine restrictions
while closely monitoring case growth
• Most developed economies are using similar approaches to reopen their countries; they are gradually relaxing suppression measures whilst
strongly reinforcing mitigation actions. There are a few important learnings for South American countries:
– The reopening has been taking place progressively; sectors with low exposure and high economic impact such as industrial and workplaces are prioritized
– On the other hand, there are specific mobility suppression measures being kept: major entertainment events, such as cultural activities and sports events, had
their reopening delayed and borders remain under tight control
– The reopening is usually regionalized and based on a careful risk assessment. The coordination between federal and local governments has been key to
the success of this process; federal governments are responsible to set the strategy and local authorities are responsible for detailing and executing; Transit
between regions of different risk profiles is usually restricted
– Emergency plans have proven to be essential in the case of insurgent new outbreaks; the ability to lock-down cities/neighborhoods goes a long way
– As countries started to reopen they gradually reinforced their mitigation efforts: ramping-up their testing, tracing and isolating capability to control
contamination
– A culture of social distancing and mandatory/wide mask usage is another key aspect of countries reopening process
• On the other hand, countries/regions such as Iran and a some USA states had issues to slowdown the curve after easing suppression
measures; those regions opened up before actually getting the situation under control and were not able to deploy mitigations tools efficiently
• Brazil is in a very similar position to Iran and USA states, easing suppression measures without fully controlling the disease and with no
real mitigation efforts in place. Building coordinated testing/tracing/isolating capabilities should be priority #1 for all States to allow for a
more smooth recovery process, with less need for another round of strong suppression measures
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E R E O P E N I N G
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Reopening results: Some regions have already started the reopening process,
however not all of them are being able to control contamination levels
Many Asian and European countries are successfully moving forward with
relaxed quarantine restrictions while closely monitoring case growth
Other places, as Iran and some American states, are struggling to slowdown the
curve after the reopening due to inefficient suppression and mitigation measures
A S O F J U N E 2 9
Note: 7-day moving average reflects seven days prior to and including reporting date
Source: Wordometers, Johns Hopkins University, ABC News, CDC, WHO, Bloomberg, CNN, CBS News, Guardian, Inquirer, NHK World – Japan, Anadolu Agency, Focus Taiwan, The New York Times, VoA, Financial Times, Reuters, NPR, Taiwan News,
Time Out, Talking Points Memo, Bain Macro Trends Group analysis
TX
CA FL
Daily new deaths/100k hab New deaths 7-day average New cases 7-day averageLegend
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E R E O P E N I N G
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Inefficient suppression and mitigation measures led to case growth
Success factors: While successful reopening stories have managed to deploy
robust mitigation tools, other countries/states that lacked such tools have struggled
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E R E O P E N I N G
Mitigation
(High use of
technology)
Suppression
(Mobility
reduction)
• Utilization of effective
tracing system
• # of daily tests /
daily new cases1
• Big events authorization
Unconstrained
R0
• Population density of
main cities (k hab / km2)
• # of people/household
2-2.6
2.6
Exposure
immunity
• Case growth rate
after reopening (%)
Governmentmeasures
• Current mobility4 and
previous mobility5 (%)
Reopening
results
• Adjusted number of
cases / total pop. (%)
Italy
• Required mask usage
Banned Allowed
10195
Banned
Up to 15
people
234138
NYJapan IranGermany
-12%
(-27%)
-14%
(-34%)
-15%
(-37%)
-23%
(-68%)
4-124-103-55-9
2.42.12.4 3.5
2
(Manual
Tracing)
(Recent
app)
(App + Manual
Tracing)
(No structured
efforts mapped)
4-17
2.5
S. Korea
Banned
232
~0%
(-3%)
2
(Manual + Personal
Data Tracing)
N/A
Banned Banned
2-3
Brazil
-28%
(-40%)
3-8
3.3
(No structured
efforts mapped)
Stadiums/carnivals
at 50%capacity
15
Texas
-13%
(-21%)
1-1.5
2.8
(Some manual
tracing)
70
Note: (1) June 7th; (2) Only required in public transportation; (3) In closed public spaces + open lines (4) Versus baseline mobility; (5) Mobility on May 01st; Source: Google Mobility; Media Press Search; Bain Analysis; JHU Coronavirus Data Stream 10/06.
(App + Manual
Tracing)
3
(Some cities)
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Reopening tools: Most developed economies are using similar approaches to
reopen their countries and economies
Suppression measures are being gradually relaxed Mitigation actions are being strengthen
Ramp-up of mitigation capacity by strengthening the three pillars:
testing, tracing and isolating
• Creative solutions are removing bottlenecks and allowing for mass
test collection around the globe. E.g. testing through saliva and
home self-testing
Cultural aspects are key: social distancing etiquette generally
stays in place and masks are required in many places
– Wearing masks was already a part of social etiquette in Japan
– After the pandemic, some European countries made masks mandatory in
public spaces
– Also, the degree to which each population continues to abide by the distancing
guidelines will be very important for the success of the reopening process
The reopening has been taking place progressively with
prioritization of sectors based on risk vs impact
Large gatherings are restricted for the foreseeable future and
borders are still under control
• E.g. Oktoberfest cancellation in Germany; sports remain public-less
Emergency plans have proven to be necessary in case of new
outbreaks; some countries have had to apply localized lockdowns
• Mass testing or new lockdowns executed
– E.g. 10 million tested in Wuhan (China)
– E.g. Germany locked-down 2 districts after a slaughterhouse outbreak
Industry +
Medical Offices
Services +
Shops/Retail
Restaurants +
Entertainment
Low risk/high econ. impact High risk/low econ. impact
Collection Logistics Facilities Equip. and
Material
Testing
Tracing Isolating
Reopening is regionalized and based on careful risk assessment;
coordination between federal and local governments is key
• Plans are developed federally and detailed/deployed locally
• Regions are classified according to their risk and transit between
regions is usually prohibited
IT for chain mgmt.
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E R E O P E N I N G
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Global landscape and implications for Brazil:
Preliminary takeaways from the economic recovery
• With most of the economy open at this point, key metrics from China show that the industrial sector has returned or is very close to pre-
pandemic levels. The same trend is starting to be observed in other countries that are advanced on the reopening process
– China manufacturing PMI rose from a low of 40.3 to 50.7 in May, indicating manufacturing firms are reopening
– Energy consumption, that went trough a stronger reduction in countries that experienced more severe lockdowns, has already recovered to at least ~90% of
previous levels
• On the other hand, economic sectors more dependent on consumption seem to be taking longer to recover to pre-pandemic levels. In
China, during March and April retail sales started to converge with 2019 sales, hovering ~5-15% below 2019
• Recovery pace is faster for essential categories whilst non-essential products were not only more affected during the crisis period but will also
present slower recoveries. Segments directly impacted by the lockdowns and mobility restrictions, such as restaurants and flights, will
take even longer to recover
• Most of the consumption gap comes from high income households in which spending levels are still ~13% below January. Significant increase
on savings reflects the lack of consumer confidence and uncertainties about economic recovery
• In the recovery process, leveraging digital channels has been an essential part of the recovery for most consumption-related segments.
Traditional brands that embraced digital channels seem to be leapfrogging competitors during the recovery
• Brazil should see a similar trend, with the industrial/extractive sectors returning faster to pre-crisis levels than consumption-driven segments
• With government aid being directed at lower income households, it is likely that a decent portion of the consumption gap in Brazil comes
from higher income households saving on less essential purchases; as the situation starts to stabilize, creating conditions and channels
for these consumers to feel confident can help accelerate the recovery
– Digital channels and creative models (try in your home, live streaming etc.) should continue to play a big role during the recovery phase
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E E C O N O M I C R E C O V E R Y
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Industry: Once the epidemiological factors were controlled, many countries faced
an accelerated recovery in the supply side
Energy consumption & PMI recovering all around the worldIndustrials & Coal consumption recovering in China
Caixin General Manufacturing PMI
Coal Monthly consumption in largest state power plant (Monthly ; Indexed: Jan 2019 = 100)
• After drop in February, manufacturing PMI rose, indicating manufacturing is reopening
• Coal consumption has decreased 10-12 points during the pandemic, but has already
shown improvement during the month of May, achieving higher levels than 2019
Source: Trading Economics, Reuters, CNBC, IPSOS, CEIC, Bloomberg, Financial Times, NBS of China, Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, Bruegel; ONS, Trading Economics
Purchasing Managing Index (PMI) per country (%)
E C O N O M I C R E C O V E R Y I N D U S T R Y
• PMI seems to be recovering all around the world, indicating the return of supply activities
• Energy consumption went trough a stronger reduction in countries that experienced
more severe lockdowns, but already recovered to at least ~90%
Daily average electric energy consumption vs 2019 (100 basis from 1st day; 7 days average)
Average ~90% consumption
Days after quarantine measures where put in place
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Consumption: Economic sectors more dependent on consumption seem to be taking
longer to recover to pre-pandemic levels and there are a few trends that can be observed
Online channel plays an important role in the recoveryConsumption is taking longer to recover
2019 2020
Changes in retail sales (YoY)
Source: Trading Economics, Reuters, CNBC, IPSOS, CEIC, Bloomberg, Financial Times, NBS of China, China National Bureau of Statistics, Tmall & Taobao data, Opportunity Insights, USA Department of Commerce, Bain analysis
Essentials recover faster; other segments starting to improve
USA monthly consumption per segment (% of January; Indexed)
Essentials Non-essentials Segments directly
affected by
the pandemic
Change in ONLINE retail sales by sector (April1 2020, YoY LFL%)
Change in online AND offline retail sales by sector (April 2020, YoY LFL%)
Most of the spending gap comes from high income households
Low and middle income
segments are the ones receiving
government support
USA spending per income segment (% of January; Indexed)
E C O N O M I C R E C O V E R Y C O N S U M P T I O N