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June 18th, 2020
Procurement
through COVID-19
Copyright @ 2020 Bain & Company. All rights reserved.
Any use of this material without specific permission of Bain & Company is strictly prohibited
2200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Context for these materials
• COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis and a global challenge. In this interconnected world, we have seen the virus spread
rapidly, and we are still gathering information to understand both its cause and its impact
• We are grateful for the businesses, governments, non-profits, and individuals around the world that are working to
protect those that are sick or in danger of becoming so and “flatten the curve”
• There is a lot that is still unknown about COVID-19; these materials are an attempt to shed light on what we know so
far to help businesses make informed decisions
– The top priority for all businesses is to protect the safety and health of employees and customers, for which there are WHO, CDC, and
other national guidelines
– Bain is not an expert on epidemiology and containment policies, however given our 45+ years of experience advising companies during both
economic booms and busts, we are committed to spreading accurate and timely information to reduce the unknowns for businesses
and business leaders
• Our focus is to enable companies to make rapid and practical decisions; with a global pandemic that is rapidly
spreading and changing, now is not the time for detailed decision making; the need for speed and the right directional
strategy outweighs the need to get intricate details right, and we are committed to helping business leaders navigate the
path forward
Our
facilitators
INTRODUCING
Head of Americas
Procurement Practice
Chuck Miller
COVID task force Leader in
South America
Ricardo Gold
Leader of Performance
Improvement Practice in
South America
Ives Moraes
for today
KEY TOPIC S
01
COVID-19
Macroeconomic Impacts
C O N T E X T
Environment is
becoming increasingly
challenging;
procurement must
step up and support
the business to limit
impact and remain
essential
COVID-19 is impacting us all
The safety of employees, customers and suppliers is paramount
At the same time, COVID-19 is causing tremendous business
& procurement impact
Firms must adjust to changing customer needs, manage shifting
commodity prices, and inspect the entire supply to mitigate disruptions
Cash will be King for 2020 and beyond
We need more a resilient supply chain and accelerated digitization
in our remote working ‘new normal’
Leaders must prepare now to accelerate during and beyond
the downturn
Paralysis is the biggest risk today:
First movers will be rewarded as working
capital and profit pools contract rapidly
6200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Most global experiences of successful mobility restrictions presented bell-shaped curves
that peaked ~10-30 days post lockdown and consistently decreased following peak
Lockdown
is lifted
Most countries that went through lockdowns managed to reduce new infections
Note: COVID-19 new cases per day (7 day moving average); Date of lockdown lift is considered when there is a significant lift of schools, stores and/or services
Source: The Business Insider, Oxford Our World in Data Database (04/05)
Czechia
DenmarkNorwayNew Zealand
Lockdown
is lifted
Lockdown
is lifted
Lockdown
is lifted
Netherlands Finland
Lockdown
is lifted
Lockdown
to be lifted
(L+55)
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
7200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
So, why don’t we see the same curve in South America? Even in countries with more
severe lockdowns, the recovery is taking much longer
New cases per day
(5 days moving average; From 100th case in a day)
Days from 100th new case per dayNote: (1) Considering average mobility from May 23th to May 29th
Source: JHU Data Stream; Google Mobility; Argentinian Department of Health
1
Even though some countries as Chile, Argentina and
Colombia had the spread initially under control, SA
countries are now experiencing a loss of control over case
growth
J U N E 0 8 2 0 2 0A S O FG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
8200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Measures taken can
mitigate the spread
Exposure immunity
helps reducing R0
Combination should
prevent HC collapse
The key is to get R0 below 1. It goes beyond reducing mobility; cities
demographics, testing, technology and exposure immunity also impact the R0
Specific demographics
lead to “baseline” R0
Different location / stage
leads to diff. strategy
R0 <=1
• Favorable demographics
lead to fewer needs of gov.
measures
1
• Government measures
(such as widespread testing
and screenings) reduce the
need for lockdowns
2
• Exposure immunity
develops as number of
cases increase, reducing
need of other measures
3
Note: Illustrative impact of different factors influencing R0
Source: Lit. research
1 2
3
COVID-19 R0 (as a function of contributing factors)
R0 can be kept at this
level after transmission
control is at low levels
All variables must be taken into consideration when reducing the contamination R0. Different countries are acting in very distinct
ways to approach the problem
At this stage, most
evidence suggests
contaminated patients
develop immunity, but
its length and strength
are still being debated
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
12200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
2:1
(5.4%)
6:1
(7.6%)
14:1
(6.2%)
60:1
(4.9%)
86:1
(2.3%)
183:1
(0.4%)
18:1
(14.4%)
New York Brazil
Despite mobility reduction efforts, SA starts from a higher R0 and is not leveraging
any other tool to control the spread (testing, technology, etc.)
Switzerland
~43%
(From 870
cases)
~60-75%
(From ~6k
cases)
~46%
(From 2.5k
cases)
>5>5
Denmark
~39%
(From ~600
cases)
Source: JHU Coronavirus Data Stream 05/06; Tableau; Worldometers; Google Mobility Database, Bain Analysis.
Mitigation
(High use of
technology)
Suppression
(Mobility
reduction)
Time to
slowdown
• Technology usage
• # of tests applied vs
confirmed cases
(Mortality %)
• Mobility reduction
during lockdown (%)
• # of weeks from mobility
reduction to case under
control (<50 cases/1M)
LowLow Medium Medium
32
Unconstrained
R0
3-81-10 1-42.1
• Population density of
main cities (k hab / km2)
• # of people/household 3.32.5 2.5 2.2
S. Korea
Countries didn’t reach
such contamination levels
~25%
Very High
Hong Kong
~30%
Very High
4-17
2.5
7
2.8
Favorable DemographicsHigh use of technology S. AmericaStrong suppression
Italy
~70%
(From ~15k
cases)
>5
Low
2-2.6
2.6
Exposure
immunity
• Adjusted number of
cases / total pop. (%)
Governmentmeasures
Testing was poor in SA,
especially in Brazil, where
few technologies were
used and only people in
severe states were tested
Differently from NY/Italy, Brazil
opted on a moderate mobility
reduction mainly stimulated
through venue closure, with few
population support.
Cities are still far from developing
exposure immunity, which led to a
slow spread control, that will be
followed by a long recuperation
period with R0 of ~1
South American countries
depart from not favorable
demographics, with dense
cities and high number of
people per household
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
13200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
New York Brazil
Despite mobility reduction efforts, SA starts from a higher R0 and is not leveraging
any other tool to control the spread (testing, technology, etc.)
~43%
(From 870
cases)
~60-75%
(From ~6k
cases)
~46%
(From 2.5k
cases)
>5>5
Denmark
~39%
(From ~600
cases)
Source: JHU Coronavirus Data Stream 05/06; Tableau; Worldometers; Google Mobility Database, Bain Analysis.
Mitigation
(High use of
technology)
Suppression
(Mobility
reduction)
Time to
slowdown
• Technology usage
• # of tests applied vs
confirmed cases
(Mortality %)
• Mobility reduction
during lockdown (%)
• # of weeks from mobility
reduction to case under
control (<50 cases/1M)
LowLow Medium Medium
32
Unconstrained
R0
3-81-10 1-42.1
• Population density of
main cities (k hab / km2)
• # of people/household 3.32.5 2.5 2.2
S. Korea
Countries didn’t reach
such contamination levels
~25%
Very High
Hong Kong
~30%
Very High
4-17
2.5
7
2.8
Favorable DemographicsHigh use of technology S. AmericaStrong suppression
Italy
~70%
(From ~15k
cases)
>5
Low
2-2.6
2.6
Exposure
immunity
• Adjusted number of
cases / total pop. (%)
Governmentmeasures
G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
Switzerland
2:1
(5.4%)
6:1
(7.6%)
14:1
(6.2%)
60:1
(4.9%)
86:1
(2.3%)
183:1
(0.4%)
18:1
(14.4%)
14200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
The SARS hospitalizations metric suggests Brazil may have reached new cases
peak, but additional waves are possible
Source: Fiocruz, Ministry of Health
Epidemiological
Week
Hospitalizations due to SARS per epidemiological week
(k# cases; week of the beginning of symptoms)
First wave of
exponential growth
Increase of contamination
due to virus spread to the
countryside and smaller
cities
Contamination
curve
slowdown after
governmental
measures are
applied
J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0A S O F
Weeks that are
likely still
incomplete on
the reports
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
15200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Epidemiological status by state on May 25th: As the disease progressed, we expected
most states would trend towards a “control zone”, with R0 ≈ 1 and ICU occupancy ≈ 60-70%
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
M A Y 2 5 2 0 2 0A S O F
GrowingSlowingDown
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to
control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies,
we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with
stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control
Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7
days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
State position on May 25th
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
16200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Evolution by state since May 25th: Many states that were in the medium and high risk
areas indeed improved and progressed towards the “control zone”
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
A S O F
States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system
collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently
below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage
GrowingSlowingDown
State position on May 25th
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
Among the states that were
considered critical, PA and
CE had the most significant
positive progress
J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0N O T E X H A U S T I V E
Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7
days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
17200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Evolution by state since May 25th: In fact, many states that presented a lower risk also
progressed towards the “control zone”
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
A S O F
States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system
collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently
below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage
GrowingSlowingDown
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
With suppression measures being relaxed,
especially in the “better states”, it is natural to
see states in this area move to the right,
towards the same “control zone”
J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0N O T E X H A U S T I V E
State position on May 25th
Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7
days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
19200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Current situation in Brazil: most states are now classified as medium risk and we
expect states to continue trending towards the “control zone” over the following weeks
0.806545 1.272405 99.6777 11.11
Contamination R0
ICU average occupancy ratio
A S O F
Note: R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments
Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk
States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system
collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently
below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage
GrowingSlowingDown
J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0
As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to
control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies,
we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with
stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
21200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Going forward: Combining effects from all States, the most likely scenario for Brazil
is a long plateau of the disease until exposure immunity starts to play a role
Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-191
(# cases; epidemiological week of the beginning of symptoms) Projections
Epidemiological Week
Note: (1) With SARS Pneumonia symptoms; Source: Brazilian Ministry of Health – Public Health Emergency Operations Center; Bain Estimate.
Healthcare
system capacity
Different stages of COVID-19
spread and government responses
across Brazilian state should
generate a long plateu in the curve
After a significant period, exposure
immunity may help states to
reduce contagiousness levels
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L U P C O M I N G S C E N A R I O
With many states reopening their
economies, another wave of
growth in the near future is not out
of the equation
23200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Manufacture
Transport. &
Storage
Commerce
COVID-19 crisis will hit all sectors at different levels; while agriculture still has a
positive GDP forecast vs 2019, most industries & services will be severely hit
Legend
Note: 1Baseline projection on Feb/20; 2Baseline projection on May/20; 32018 growth vs 2020 Post-COVID projection
Source: LCA GDP Growth projections; WTTC; FGV
2020 GDP growth projection before COVID-191
2020 GDP growth projection after COVID-192
ConstructionTourism3
Agriculture
Industries Services
Real Estate
Financial
Services
Public. Adm
High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact
Energy &
Water
Mineral
Extraction
AgricultureTaxes
Other
Services
Information
Services
A S O F M A Y 1 4 T HP E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L E C O N O M I C I M P A C T
24200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS
Northeast & South economies expected to be more severely hit in 2020, mostly due to
tourism and industrial activities; North and Central-West to face slightly lower losses
• ~13% of the economy based on mineral extractives
and energy, with the modest drop and profitability
advantage
• ~10% of the economy based on agriculture will help
mitigate local services loss
High epidemiological impact
Low economic impact (5,0% vs 5,6% BR)
North
• ~10% of total GDP based on Tourism,
sector that will suffer a major blow
• ~42% of total state revenue based on
fiscal transfers that will be maintained by
the federal government using aid measures
• ~27% of GDP based on agribusiness; strong soy harvest and high USD
will keep 2020 performance similar to last years
• High public spending and FS shares will also mitigate the drop in the region
High epidemiological impact
High economic impact (7,2% vs 5,6% BR)
Midwest
Northeast
Southeast
Low epidemiological impact
Low economic impact (5,1% vs 5,6% BR)
High epidemiological impact
Average to high economic impact (5,2% vs 5,6% BR)
• ~13% share of manufacture in the economy
will lead GDP fall in the region
• ~16% participation of FS and professional
services in the economy will avoid an even
more delicate situation for SE
Epidemiological impact
High Medium Low
South
Medium epidemiological impact
High economic impact
(5,9% vs 5,6% BR)
• ~16% of the economy based on manufacture and higher concentration
of severely hit goods such as furniture, textiles, clothing and footwear
• While agriculture share is similar to other regions, weather will lead to
severe harvest losses in 2020 (47% loss of soybean harvest in RS)
P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L E C O N O M I C I M P A C T
for today
KEY TOPIC S
02
Procurement Game Plan
Procurement must simultaneously balance multiple priorities in face of COVID-19
O U R P O V
How can I manage an unprecedented amount of change over the coming months?
How can we systematically learn as an organization from this ‘forced experiment’?
R ecover
R e t ool f or
t he new w orld
PLAN Now
to retool the business for the future
Prot ect
ACT Now
to protect and run the business today
Procurement “Buy Better + Spend Better®” purchasing levers can be deployed to
reset cost and cash position for the near- and long-term
Best
price
Negotiate prices
Negotiate terms
Manage price
risks
Pool volumes/
contracts
Shift volumes to
best price
suppliers
Leverage
procurement
networks
Control demand
Enforce
compliance
Reduce
complexity
Perform value
engineering
Optimize value-
add in supply
chain
TCO process
improvement
Collaborative
improvement
Volume
allocation
Demand
control
Design-to-
cost
System cost
reduction
Make vs. Buy
I N C R E A S I N G D I F F I C U LT Y
P L A N N O W
“ B U Y B E T T E R ”
supply led
Typically ~40% of the value
“ S P E N D B E T T E R ”
operations led
Typically ~60% of the value
Proposed Procurement “Plan Now” priorities
R e - t o o l f o r t h e “ n e w w o r l d ”R e c o v e r
Update supply plan based on
near-term and new-normal
demand patterns
Create clear procedures with the business to pivot supply
in face of future crises (e.g., substitutes)
Clean sheet view of value chain participation (make vs. buy;
alternative “buy” models – JVs)
Pragmatically
create value
De-risk supply
and supplier
management
(Re-)align talent pipeline needs to meet
the near-term business priorities
(Re-)launch a digital transformation program
Re-engineer P2P processes, adopt RPA to enhance
resilience and mitigate risks
Transform
organization for
“new normal”
Amplify
partnership
with the business
P L A N N O W
Ensure supplier ramp plans align with
company ramp; pivot sourcing as needed
Build Supplier Risk Heat Map with key
financial & operational metrics
Create more resilient supply chain (balance between cost and
resilience) and Embed supplier risk profile and strategy
Diversify OCC footprint, flexible to geopolitical shifts
Capitalize on shifting market dynamics
(e.g., oil prices impact on transport)
Raise previously “off-limits” levers
Align sourcing strategy with post-crisis company strategy shifts
Capitalize on post-crisis supplier innovations (virtual
engagement, automated delivery)
Leading procurement teams are beginning to clean-sheet their strategies,
operating model and tools
P L A N N O W
4 key questions organizations will need to answer in 2020
1 2
3 4
C at egory Management
R eboot
Value C hain
Part icipat ion
Do we need to revisit reverse and/or
forward integration?
How does Procurement support this
dialogue?
How to adjust our intelligence,
analytics, “Buy Better” levers and
commercial processes for complex
and volatile markets?
Fut ure Supplier
Management
How do we drive an integrated,
value-added SRM approach
(vs. a controls-based model)?
End - t o- End D igit a l
A lignment
How do we move towards a true
Control Tower capability in a
pragmatic, focused fashion?
for today
KEY TOPIC S
03
A Winning Approach
Even knowing what should be done, most companies struggle to realize value
90% 75%
Of companies surveyed have a
cost program; however…
of companies do not achieve
cost productivity targets
Note: Achievement of targets assessed based on performance of 1608 NYSE and NASDAQ companies from 2012 - 2017
Source: C-Suite level survey with +$500M USD revenue companies, April 2018, N=103; Capital IQ
44%
miss productivity targets by
more than 50%
Executives cite a number of common pitfalls
Value is slow and
incremental – long
lead times before
realization, or not
aggressive enough
Silo-ed approach –
lack of alignment or
collaboration on
achieving goals
Cut too close to
the bone –
impacting value
proposition or ability
to serve customers
Lack of resources
– insufficient budget
or resources to
invest in programs
A P P R O A C H
Bain “Buy Better Spend Better” approach enables the realization of 8-12% savings
over a two-year period with roughly half in year one
A P P R O A C H
I N D I R E C T C A T E G O R I E S B A I N E X P E R I E N C E
Source: Bain Indirect Procurement Experience (2007-2017)
Average
savings
Category
8-15% 7-13%7-14% 6-12%
Facility Expenditures
Off. eq. &
services
Professional/
HR services
TravelMarketing
7-13%
IT/Technology Logistics
5-10%10-15%
Financial
services
10%10%10%10%10%
5-10%
Range (min-max)
Average achieved savings
8-12%
Average
savings
How to structure Buy Better/Spend Better
A P P R O A C H
Build cost transparency
by creating a spend cube
Savings capture
Opportunity Hunt & Diagnostics Design Implementation & Scale
Prioritize initiatives
through workshop with
key stakeholders
Work together in agile
teams to implement
critical initiatives
Listen to the organization
to leverage existing
opportunities
Create initial list of saving
hypothesis and starting
building sponsorship
spine
Build quick wins
implementation plan to
allow savings ASAP –
incorporate savings into
budget and financial
planning
Prepare for Wave 1 by
detailing scope and
engaging focal points
Ensure capture by
tracking initiatives KPIs
Sustain gains by building
required capabilities
Prepare for Wave 2 by
detailing scope and
engaging focal points
1 2 3
Access all Bain material on COVID-19 through the QR-Code
or on our website:
www.bain.com/insights/topics/coronavirus/
Coronavirus Insights
Ricardo Gold
Partner & COVID task force
leader in South America
Ricardo.Gold@Bain.com
Thank you!
Receive daily news from Bain on COVID-19 and other topics
on our page:
Follow us on LinkedIn!
www.linkedin.com/showcase/bain-&-company-brasil/
Chuck Miller
Partner & Head of Americas
Procurement Practice
Charles.Miller@Bain.com
Ives Moraes
Partner & leader of Performance
Improvement in South America
Ives.Moraes@Bain.com

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#BainWebinar Procurement Best Practices Through Covid19

  • 1. June 18th, 2020 Procurement through COVID-19 Copyright @ 2020 Bain & Company. All rights reserved. Any use of this material without specific permission of Bain & Company is strictly prohibited
  • 2. 2200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Context for these materials • COVID-19 is a humanitarian crisis and a global challenge. In this interconnected world, we have seen the virus spread rapidly, and we are still gathering information to understand both its cause and its impact • We are grateful for the businesses, governments, non-profits, and individuals around the world that are working to protect those that are sick or in danger of becoming so and “flatten the curve” • There is a lot that is still unknown about COVID-19; these materials are an attempt to shed light on what we know so far to help businesses make informed decisions – The top priority for all businesses is to protect the safety and health of employees and customers, for which there are WHO, CDC, and other national guidelines – Bain is not an expert on epidemiology and containment policies, however given our 45+ years of experience advising companies during both economic booms and busts, we are committed to spreading accurate and timely information to reduce the unknowns for businesses and business leaders • Our focus is to enable companies to make rapid and practical decisions; with a global pandemic that is rapidly spreading and changing, now is not the time for detailed decision making; the need for speed and the right directional strategy outweighs the need to get intricate details right, and we are committed to helping business leaders navigate the path forward
  • 3. Our facilitators INTRODUCING Head of Americas Procurement Practice Chuck Miller COVID task force Leader in South America Ricardo Gold Leader of Performance Improvement Practice in South America Ives Moraes
  • 4. for today KEY TOPIC S 01 COVID-19 Macroeconomic Impacts
  • 5. C O N T E X T Environment is becoming increasingly challenging; procurement must step up and support the business to limit impact and remain essential COVID-19 is impacting us all The safety of employees, customers and suppliers is paramount At the same time, COVID-19 is causing tremendous business & procurement impact Firms must adjust to changing customer needs, manage shifting commodity prices, and inspect the entire supply to mitigate disruptions Cash will be King for 2020 and beyond We need more a resilient supply chain and accelerated digitization in our remote working ‘new normal’ Leaders must prepare now to accelerate during and beyond the downturn Paralysis is the biggest risk today: First movers will be rewarded as working capital and profit pools contract rapidly
  • 6. 6200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Most global experiences of successful mobility restrictions presented bell-shaped curves that peaked ~10-30 days post lockdown and consistently decreased following peak Lockdown is lifted Most countries that went through lockdowns managed to reduce new infections Note: COVID-19 new cases per day (7 day moving average); Date of lockdown lift is considered when there is a significant lift of schools, stores and/or services Source: The Business Insider, Oxford Our World in Data Database (04/05) Czechia DenmarkNorwayNew Zealand Lockdown is lifted Lockdown is lifted Lockdown is lifted Netherlands Finland Lockdown is lifted Lockdown to be lifted (L+55) G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
  • 7. 7200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS So, why don’t we see the same curve in South America? Even in countries with more severe lockdowns, the recovery is taking much longer New cases per day (5 days moving average; From 100th case in a day) Days from 100th new case per dayNote: (1) Considering average mobility from May 23th to May 29th Source: JHU Data Stream; Google Mobility; Argentinian Department of Health 1 Even though some countries as Chile, Argentina and Colombia had the spread initially under control, SA countries are now experiencing a loss of control over case growth J U N E 0 8 2 0 2 0A S O FG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
  • 8. 8200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Measures taken can mitigate the spread Exposure immunity helps reducing R0 Combination should prevent HC collapse The key is to get R0 below 1. It goes beyond reducing mobility; cities demographics, testing, technology and exposure immunity also impact the R0 Specific demographics lead to “baseline” R0 Different location / stage leads to diff. strategy R0 <=1 • Favorable demographics lead to fewer needs of gov. measures 1 • Government measures (such as widespread testing and screenings) reduce the need for lockdowns 2 • Exposure immunity develops as number of cases increase, reducing need of other measures 3 Note: Illustrative impact of different factors influencing R0 Source: Lit. research 1 2 3 COVID-19 R0 (as a function of contributing factors) R0 can be kept at this level after transmission control is at low levels All variables must be taken into consideration when reducing the contamination R0. Different countries are acting in very distinct ways to approach the problem At this stage, most evidence suggests contaminated patients develop immunity, but its length and strength are still being debated G L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
  • 9. 12200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS 2:1 (5.4%) 6:1 (7.6%) 14:1 (6.2%) 60:1 (4.9%) 86:1 (2.3%) 183:1 (0.4%) 18:1 (14.4%) New York Brazil Despite mobility reduction efforts, SA starts from a higher R0 and is not leveraging any other tool to control the spread (testing, technology, etc.) Switzerland ~43% (From 870 cases) ~60-75% (From ~6k cases) ~46% (From 2.5k cases) >5>5 Denmark ~39% (From ~600 cases) Source: JHU Coronavirus Data Stream 05/06; Tableau; Worldometers; Google Mobility Database, Bain Analysis. Mitigation (High use of technology) Suppression (Mobility reduction) Time to slowdown • Technology usage • # of tests applied vs confirmed cases (Mortality %) • Mobility reduction during lockdown (%) • # of weeks from mobility reduction to case under control (<50 cases/1M) LowLow Medium Medium 32 Unconstrained R0 3-81-10 1-42.1 • Population density of main cities (k hab / km2) • # of people/household 3.32.5 2.5 2.2 S. Korea Countries didn’t reach such contamination levels ~25% Very High Hong Kong ~30% Very High 4-17 2.5 7 2.8 Favorable DemographicsHigh use of technology S. AmericaStrong suppression Italy ~70% (From ~15k cases) >5 Low 2-2.6 2.6 Exposure immunity • Adjusted number of cases / total pop. (%) Governmentmeasures Testing was poor in SA, especially in Brazil, where few technologies were used and only people in severe states were tested Differently from NY/Italy, Brazil opted on a moderate mobility reduction mainly stimulated through venue closure, with few population support. Cities are still far from developing exposure immunity, which led to a slow spread control, that will be followed by a long recuperation period with R0 of ~1 South American countries depart from not favorable demographics, with dense cities and high number of people per household G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E
  • 10. 13200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS New York Brazil Despite mobility reduction efforts, SA starts from a higher R0 and is not leveraging any other tool to control the spread (testing, technology, etc.) ~43% (From 870 cases) ~60-75% (From ~6k cases) ~46% (From 2.5k cases) >5>5 Denmark ~39% (From ~600 cases) Source: JHU Coronavirus Data Stream 05/06; Tableau; Worldometers; Google Mobility Database, Bain Analysis. Mitigation (High use of technology) Suppression (Mobility reduction) Time to slowdown • Technology usage • # of tests applied vs confirmed cases (Mortality %) • Mobility reduction during lockdown (%) • # of weeks from mobility reduction to case under control (<50 cases/1M) LowLow Medium Medium 32 Unconstrained R0 3-81-10 1-42.1 • Population density of main cities (k hab / km2) • # of people/household 3.32.5 2.5 2.2 S. Korea Countries didn’t reach such contamination levels ~25% Very High Hong Kong ~30% Very High 4-17 2.5 7 2.8 Favorable DemographicsHigh use of technology S. AmericaStrong suppression Italy ~70% (From ~15k cases) >5 Low 2-2.6 2.6 Exposure immunity • Adjusted number of cases / total pop. (%) Governmentmeasures G L O B A L L A N D S C A P EG L O B A L L A N D S C A P E Switzerland 2:1 (5.4%) 6:1 (7.6%) 14:1 (6.2%) 60:1 (4.9%) 86:1 (2.3%) 183:1 (0.4%) 18:1 (14.4%)
  • 11. 14200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS The SARS hospitalizations metric suggests Brazil may have reached new cases peak, but additional waves are possible Source: Fiocruz, Ministry of Health Epidemiological Week Hospitalizations due to SARS per epidemiological week (k# cases; week of the beginning of symptoms) First wave of exponential growth Increase of contamination due to virus spread to the countryside and smaller cities Contamination curve slowdown after governmental measures are applied J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0A S O F Weeks that are likely still incomplete on the reports P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
  • 12. 15200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Epidemiological status by state on May 25th: As the disease progressed, we expected most states would trend towards a “control zone”, with R0 ≈ 1 and ICU occupancy ≈ 60-70% Contamination R0 ICU average occupancy ratio M A Y 2 5 2 0 2 0A S O F GrowingSlowingDown Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies, we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments State position on May 25th P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
  • 13. 16200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Evolution by state since May 25th: Many states that were in the medium and high risk areas indeed improved and progressed towards the “control zone” Contamination R0 ICU average occupancy ratio A S O F States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage GrowingSlowingDown State position on May 25th Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk Among the states that were considered critical, PA and CE had the most significant positive progress J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0N O T E X H A U S T I V E Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
  • 14. 17200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Evolution by state since May 25th: In fact, many states that presented a lower risk also progressed towards the “control zone” Contamination R0 ICU average occupancy ratio A S O F States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage GrowingSlowingDown Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk With suppression measures being relaxed, especially in the “better states”, it is natural to see states in this area move to the right, towards the same “control zone” J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0N O T E X H A U S T I V E State position on May 25th Note: ICU occupancy in the state of Minas Gerais on May 25 updated from COVID-19 ICU occupancy to general ICU occupancy, a measure that the state started to adopt in the last few days; R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
  • 15. 19200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Current situation in Brazil: most states are now classified as medium risk and we expect states to continue trending towards the “control zone” over the following weeks 0.806545 1.272405 99.6777 11.11 Contamination R0 ICU average occupancy ratio A S O F Note: R0 calculated as the ratio of average new deaths in the last 7 days to the previous 7 days Source: Ministry of Health and State Health Departments Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk States with high ICU occupancy are at high risk of a health care system collapse and need to keep the R0 (contagiousness level) consistently below 1 so they can achieve a “sustainable” contamination stage GrowingSlowingDown J U N E 1 1 2 0 2 0 As states try to balance suppression/mitigation measures to control the disease with a controlled reopening of economies, we will likely see this “control zone” as a balancing point, with stable growth of cases and ICU occupancy under control P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L C U R R E N T T R E N D
  • 16. 21200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Going forward: Combining effects from all States, the most likely scenario for Brazil is a long plateau of the disease until exposure immunity starts to play a role Estimated hospitalizations due to COVID-191 (# cases; epidemiological week of the beginning of symptoms) Projections Epidemiological Week Note: (1) With SARS Pneumonia symptoms; Source: Brazilian Ministry of Health – Public Health Emergency Operations Center; Bain Estimate. Healthcare system capacity Different stages of COVID-19 spread and government responses across Brazilian state should generate a long plateu in the curve After a significant period, exposure immunity may help states to reduce contagiousness levels P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L U P C O M I N G S C E N A R I O With many states reopening their economies, another wave of growth in the near future is not out of the equation
  • 17. 23200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Manufacture Transport. & Storage Commerce COVID-19 crisis will hit all sectors at different levels; while agriculture still has a positive GDP forecast vs 2019, most industries & services will be severely hit Legend Note: 1Baseline projection on Feb/20; 2Baseline projection on May/20; 32018 growth vs 2020 Post-COVID projection Source: LCA GDP Growth projections; WTTC; FGV 2020 GDP growth projection before COVID-191 2020 GDP growth projection after COVID-192 ConstructionTourism3 Agriculture Industries Services Real Estate Financial Services Public. Adm High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact Energy & Water Mineral Extraction AgricultureTaxes Other Services Information Services A S O F M A Y 1 4 T HP E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L E C O N O M I C I M P A C T
  • 18. 24200615 - Bain Webinar_Procurem ...BOS Northeast & South economies expected to be more severely hit in 2020, mostly due to tourism and industrial activities; North and Central-West to face slightly lower losses • ~13% of the economy based on mineral extractives and energy, with the modest drop and profitability advantage • ~10% of the economy based on agriculture will help mitigate local services loss High epidemiological impact Low economic impact (5,0% vs 5,6% BR) North • ~10% of total GDP based on Tourism, sector that will suffer a major blow • ~42% of total state revenue based on fiscal transfers that will be maintained by the federal government using aid measures • ~27% of GDP based on agribusiness; strong soy harvest and high USD will keep 2020 performance similar to last years • High public spending and FS shares will also mitigate the drop in the region High epidemiological impact High economic impact (7,2% vs 5,6% BR) Midwest Northeast Southeast Low epidemiological impact Low economic impact (5,1% vs 5,6% BR) High epidemiological impact Average to high economic impact (5,2% vs 5,6% BR) • ~13% share of manufacture in the economy will lead GDP fall in the region • ~16% participation of FS and professional services in the economy will avoid an even more delicate situation for SE Epidemiological impact High Medium Low South Medium epidemiological impact High economic impact (5,9% vs 5,6% BR) • ~16% of the economy based on manufacture and higher concentration of severely hit goods such as furniture, textiles, clothing and footwear • While agriculture share is similar to other regions, weather will lead to severe harvest losses in 2020 (47% loss of soybean harvest in RS) P E R S P E C T I V E F O R B R A Z I L E C O N O M I C I M P A C T
  • 19. for today KEY TOPIC S 02 Procurement Game Plan
  • 20. Procurement must simultaneously balance multiple priorities in face of COVID-19 O U R P O V How can I manage an unprecedented amount of change over the coming months? How can we systematically learn as an organization from this ‘forced experiment’? R ecover R e t ool f or t he new w orld PLAN Now to retool the business for the future Prot ect ACT Now to protect and run the business today
  • 21. Procurement “Buy Better + Spend Better®” purchasing levers can be deployed to reset cost and cash position for the near- and long-term Best price Negotiate prices Negotiate terms Manage price risks Pool volumes/ contracts Shift volumes to best price suppliers Leverage procurement networks Control demand Enforce compliance Reduce complexity Perform value engineering Optimize value- add in supply chain TCO process improvement Collaborative improvement Volume allocation Demand control Design-to- cost System cost reduction Make vs. Buy I N C R E A S I N G D I F F I C U LT Y P L A N N O W “ B U Y B E T T E R ” supply led Typically ~40% of the value “ S P E N D B E T T E R ” operations led Typically ~60% of the value
  • 22. Proposed Procurement “Plan Now” priorities R e - t o o l f o r t h e “ n e w w o r l d ”R e c o v e r Update supply plan based on near-term and new-normal demand patterns Create clear procedures with the business to pivot supply in face of future crises (e.g., substitutes) Clean sheet view of value chain participation (make vs. buy; alternative “buy” models – JVs) Pragmatically create value De-risk supply and supplier management (Re-)align talent pipeline needs to meet the near-term business priorities (Re-)launch a digital transformation program Re-engineer P2P processes, adopt RPA to enhance resilience and mitigate risks Transform organization for “new normal” Amplify partnership with the business P L A N N O W Ensure supplier ramp plans align with company ramp; pivot sourcing as needed Build Supplier Risk Heat Map with key financial & operational metrics Create more resilient supply chain (balance between cost and resilience) and Embed supplier risk profile and strategy Diversify OCC footprint, flexible to geopolitical shifts Capitalize on shifting market dynamics (e.g., oil prices impact on transport) Raise previously “off-limits” levers Align sourcing strategy with post-crisis company strategy shifts Capitalize on post-crisis supplier innovations (virtual engagement, automated delivery)
  • 23. Leading procurement teams are beginning to clean-sheet their strategies, operating model and tools P L A N N O W 4 key questions organizations will need to answer in 2020 1 2 3 4 C at egory Management R eboot Value C hain Part icipat ion Do we need to revisit reverse and/or forward integration? How does Procurement support this dialogue? How to adjust our intelligence, analytics, “Buy Better” levers and commercial processes for complex and volatile markets? Fut ure Supplier Management How do we drive an integrated, value-added SRM approach (vs. a controls-based model)? End - t o- End D igit a l A lignment How do we move towards a true Control Tower capability in a pragmatic, focused fashion?
  • 24. for today KEY TOPIC S 03 A Winning Approach
  • 25. Even knowing what should be done, most companies struggle to realize value 90% 75% Of companies surveyed have a cost program; however… of companies do not achieve cost productivity targets Note: Achievement of targets assessed based on performance of 1608 NYSE and NASDAQ companies from 2012 - 2017 Source: C-Suite level survey with +$500M USD revenue companies, April 2018, N=103; Capital IQ 44% miss productivity targets by more than 50% Executives cite a number of common pitfalls Value is slow and incremental – long lead times before realization, or not aggressive enough Silo-ed approach – lack of alignment or collaboration on achieving goals Cut too close to the bone – impacting value proposition or ability to serve customers Lack of resources – insufficient budget or resources to invest in programs A P P R O A C H
  • 26. Bain “Buy Better Spend Better” approach enables the realization of 8-12% savings over a two-year period with roughly half in year one A P P R O A C H I N D I R E C T C A T E G O R I E S B A I N E X P E R I E N C E Source: Bain Indirect Procurement Experience (2007-2017) Average savings Category 8-15% 7-13%7-14% 6-12% Facility Expenditures Off. eq. & services Professional/ HR services TravelMarketing 7-13% IT/Technology Logistics 5-10%10-15% Financial services 10%10%10%10%10% 5-10% Range (min-max) Average achieved savings 8-12% Average savings
  • 27. How to structure Buy Better/Spend Better A P P R O A C H Build cost transparency by creating a spend cube Savings capture Opportunity Hunt & Diagnostics Design Implementation & Scale Prioritize initiatives through workshop with key stakeholders Work together in agile teams to implement critical initiatives Listen to the organization to leverage existing opportunities Create initial list of saving hypothesis and starting building sponsorship spine Build quick wins implementation plan to allow savings ASAP – incorporate savings into budget and financial planning Prepare for Wave 1 by detailing scope and engaging focal points Ensure capture by tracking initiatives KPIs Sustain gains by building required capabilities Prepare for Wave 2 by detailing scope and engaging focal points 1 2 3
  • 28. Access all Bain material on COVID-19 through the QR-Code or on our website: www.bain.com/insights/topics/coronavirus/ Coronavirus Insights Ricardo Gold Partner & COVID task force leader in South America Ricardo.Gold@Bain.com Thank you! Receive daily news from Bain on COVID-19 and other topics on our page: Follow us on LinkedIn! www.linkedin.com/showcase/bain-&-company-brasil/ Chuck Miller Partner & Head of Americas Procurement Practice Charles.Miller@Bain.com Ives Moraes Partner & leader of Performance Improvement in South America Ives.Moraes@Bain.com