- Total corn production in 2015/2016 is forecast to be the third largest ever at 13.555 billion bushels, a small cut from the October report. - Feed and residual use is down slightly while total meat production is increasing, with more sorghum being fed due to frost and sprout damage to that crop. - Ethanol use is increasing slightly due to lower gas prices and growing ethanol exports. - Exports are forecast to be down a bit due to a strong U.S. dollar and stiff world competition.

1. Corn Market Outlook
Frayne Olson, PhD
Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist
frayne.olson@ndsu.edu 701-231-7377
NDSU Extension Service
ND Agricultural Experiment Station
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
STUDENT FOCUSED • LAND GRANT • RESEARCH UNIVERSITY

2. U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015

3. U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
Total Production is not
a new record, but third
largest.
Small cut in Oct. report
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015

4. U.S. Corn ‐ Total Use
(Billion Bushels)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00 2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Billion Bushels
Feed & Residual
Ethanol
Non‐Ethanol Food,
Seed & Industrial
Exports
Oct. 9, 2015 WASDE Report & USDA – Feed Grains Data Base Table 4

5. U.S. Corn ‐ Total Use
(Billion Bushels)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00 2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
Billion Bushels
Feed & Residual
Ethanol
Non‐Ethanol Food,
Seed & Industrial
Exports
Oct. 9, 2015 WASDE Report & USDA – Feed Grains Data Base Table 4
Total Use has
essentially been
flat since 2013/14,

6. U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual is down
slightly, while total meat
production is increasing.
SRWW feeding is higher
due to FN and sprout
damage.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015

7. U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol use is
increasing slightly
due to lower gas
prices and ethanol
exports.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015

8. U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
Exports are down
slightly due to
strong U.S. Dollar
and stiff world
competition.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015

9. U.S. Dollar Index
DTN Prophet X – 10‐13‐15 am
Euro = 57.6 %
Japanese Yen = 13.6 %
Pound Sterling = 11.9 %
Canadian Dollar = 9.1 %
Swedish Krona = 4.2 %
Swiss Franc = 3.6 %

10. USDA – WASDE – Oct. 9, 2015
U.S. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2013/2014 2014/2015 (est.) 2015/2016 (Oct)
Planted A. 95.4 Mill. A. 90.6 Mill. A. 88.4 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 87.5 Mill. A. 83.1 Mill. A. 80.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 158.1 bu. 171.0 bu. 168.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 821 Mill. Bu. 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu.
Production 13,829 Mill. Bu. 14,216 Mill. Bu. 13,555 Mill. Bu.
Imports 36 Mill. Bu. 32 Mill. Bu. 30 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 14,686 Mill. Bu. 15,479 Mill. Bu. 15,316 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 5,041 Mill. Bu. 5,317 Mill. Bu. 5,275 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,493 Mill. Bu. 6,566 Mill. Bu. 6,630 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,124 Mill. Bu. 5,207 Mill. Bu. 5,250 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,920 Mill. Bu. 1,864 Mill. Bu. 1,850 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 13,454 Mill. Bu. 13,748 Mill. Bu. 13,755 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 1,232 Mill. Bu. 1,731 Mill. Bu. 1,561 Mill. Bu.
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio is
forecast to decrease
from 12.6% to 11.3%

11. U.S. Corn – Total Production & Use
(Billion Bushels)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1980/81
1982/83
1984/85
1986/87
1988/89
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio
Billion Bushels
Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Use
Oct. 9, 2015 WASDE Report & USDA – Feed Grains Data Base Table 4

12. World Corn Prod, Use & Stocks/Use
(Million Metric Ton)
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Stocks-to-UseRatio
MillionMetricTons
Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
Oct. 9, 2015 USDA ‐WASDE & PSD Custom Query

13. World Corn Prod, Use & Stocks/Use
(Million Metric Ton)
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Stocks-to-UseRatio
MillionMetricTons
Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
Oct. 9, 2015 USDA ‐WASDE & PSD Custom Query
Who holds 2015/16 corn
ending stocks?
China – 48.2%
U.S. – 21.1%
Brazil – 8.1%

14. December CBOT Corn Futures
DTN Prophet X – 10‐13‐15 am

15. May CBOT Corn Futures
DTN Prophet X – 10‐13‐15 am

16. Questions?