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Some of - What Went
Right and Wrong
on November 8th,
2016 US Election
Marshall Sponder, WebMetricsGuru INC
Polls weren’t accurate enough
The Drama of
this election is
finally over!
Wrong
Oversampling of
Likely Democratic
voters in
favorable districts
to Clinton was a
common feature
of most polls
https://www....
Clinton's Pied
Piper
Strategy (use
media
contacts to
promote
Trump) has
backfired
spectacularly
https://wikileaks.org/pode...
This Election Was Not The 'The Death Of Data:' Filter
Bubbles And Analysis
• Filter bubble also applies to the forecasters...
Trump Win Exposes
Media's Smug Failures
• Ads don’t work, polls don’t work,
celebrities don’t work, media
endorsements don...
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/796209661456347136
Right
WHAT’S REALLY
WRONG WITH
THE POLLING?
http://odintext.com/blog/whats-really-wrong-with-polling/
How could so many projecti...
Dr. Sam Wang, a
polling expert who
said he would eat
a bug if Donald
Trump won more
than 240 electoral
votes during
Tuesda...
Our analysis strongly suggested that Hillary
Clinton was in more trouble than any of the
other polling data to that point ...
Nate Silver Blew It three times in a row
(2014 US, 2014 UK and 2016 US) on the
Election – Can His Brand Recover? NO
“Nate ...
Twitter Facial
Analysis Reveals
Demographics of
Presidential
Campaign Followers
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601074/...
Following Donald Trump's election,
the war against algorithms began
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdCJYsKlX_Y
For market...
For marketers,
the algorithimization of the
web has been a fact of life
for years.
• Success or failure on the web will in...
Clinton’s data-driven campaign
relied heavily on
an algorithm named Ada.
What didn’t she see?
A raft of polling numbers, p...
Bad Trade Deals –
The more we know,
the worse it looks
• The TPP are a corporate lobbyist’s dream.
• Get the world’s most ...
As a result of the
Election, TPP is no
longer going to be
enacted and other
trade deals may be
renegotiated
Right
Then there
was this!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3928032/Huma-breaks-weeps-openly-returns-campaign-headquarter...
If there was anything that
would “Freak Out”
Evangelicals, this would!
#Spiritcooking
Wrong
#Spiritcooking
was in the
hashtags
associated
with Wikileaks
http://hashtagify.me/hashtag/spiritcooking
#Spiritcooking
emerged on
11/4/16 and
dominated the
weekend before
the election
http://hashtagify.me/hashtag/spiritcooking
WikiLeaks
dominated the
US election in
October 2016
according to
Facebook
statistics
Right
https://insights.fb.com/categor...
The Podesta Emails published by WikiLeaks
balanced Clinton’s MSM collusion making it easier for Donald Trump to win.
http:...
FBI reopens
Clinton probe
after new
emails found
in Anthony
Weiner case –
then closed it
again 2 days
before the
election....
The 44 Most
Damning Stories
From WikiLeaks
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/07/the-44-most-damning-stories-from-wikileaks
Ri...
Hillary Clinton supporters at her election night event in New York.
Wrong
It was the biggest polling miss in a presidential
election in decades.
It was the biggest polling miss in
a presidential e...
Only the IBD/TIPP Poll and the L.A. Times/USC poll
had Trump ahead on Election Day.
Right
The IBD/TIPP Poll and the L.A. Times/USC poll
were the only accurate polls, as it turned out.
http://cesrusc.org/election/...
Finding out Why: Using Brandwatch Analytics determines the Top
Stories from Wikileaks over the last 2 months
1. Clintons P...
Crimson Hexagon
Monitor – Who
will win the
Election – Clinton
or Trump? Run
before, during
and after the
Election
https://...
Students
helped define
the Crimson
Hexagon
Monitors
which
pointed the
way to a
Trump win.
Crimson Hexagon Topic Waves picked by AI
EMOTION: Anger
EMOTION: Joy
EMOTION:
Disgust
EMOTION:
Sadness
EMOTION: Surprise[–]timmyjj2 1 point 12 days ago*
Markets according to insiders who know this told CNBC the market is pric...
Fear of Trump was the strongest emotion detected
and peaked a few times shortly before the election
Expected
turnout was low,
and this chart
suggests some
reasons why.
Crimson Hexagon Swing State Opinion Monitor set up just before the election
Prediction: High End Technology (Targeting) is
in a “Bubble”.
The Technology did not deliver what was intended for the Cli...
Facebook
Mobile
Data Up To
80%
Inaccurate
Rakuten Marketing engineers uncovered a measurement flaw in Omniture, Google Ana...
Summary: The Filter Bubble for Analysts and Pollsters is as
skewed as it is for the entire population
https://www.theguard...
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What went right or wrong on election day - Nov 8th, 2016 USA

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I created this lecture for my Baruch and Rutgers classes but figured it really ought to be online. While preparing this deck, noticed the cathectic emotion, even though it is impossible to capture everything that has happened.

Published in: Data & Analytics

What went right or wrong on election day - Nov 8th, 2016 USA

  1. 1. Some of - What Went Right and Wrong on November 8th, 2016 US Election Marshall Sponder, WebMetricsGuru INC
  2. 2. Polls weren’t accurate enough The Drama of this election is finally over! Wrong
  3. 3. Oversampling of Likely Democratic voters in favorable districts to Clinton was a common feature of most polls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZdmdxzW9ew Many of the pollsters were working with, or for, the MSM outlets colluding with the Democratic Party, or the Clintons, directly – WikiLeaks has a lot of evidence of news collusion. Wrong
  4. 4. Clinton's Pied Piper Strategy (use media contacts to promote Trump) has backfired spectacularly https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/1120 Looked Right – but it backfired
  5. 5. This Election Was Not The 'The Death Of Data:' Filter Bubbles And Analysis • Filter bubble also applies to the forecasters who are just picking the data they want to see and using it as your measurement of the world, and that has not really been talked about very much. • It would also explain why most of the polls excepting for the two sided below were incorrect or totally off. • This pretty much sums up what the state of election forecasting is today, as well as its limitations. • Also, I followed the two polls that were more accurate and wondered why the real clear politics average uses polls that were flawed to begin with. http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2016/11/11/no-this-election-was-not-the-the-death-of-data-filter-bubbles-and- analysis/#5077f050194e Wrong
  6. 6. Trump Win Exposes Media's Smug Failures • Ads don’t work, polls don’t work, celebrities don’t work, media endorsements don’t work and ground games don’t work. • It all washed away. Beyonce. The tax returns. The theoretical blue wall. Trump as sexual predator. Putin. His shambolic debate performances. Hispanics. Indeed, every aspect of the media narrative, dust. This narrative not only did not diminish him, it fortified him. • The criticism of Trump defined the people who were criticizing him, reliably giving the counter-puncher something to punch. It was a juicy target. The Media Party not only fashioned the takedown narrative and demanded a special sort of allegiance to it — Twitter serving as the orthodoxy echo chamber — but, suspending most ordinary conflict rules, according to the Center for Public Integrity, gave lots of cash to Hillary. The media turned itself into the opposition and, accordingly, was voted down. Wrong
  7. 7. https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/796209661456347136 Right
  8. 8. WHAT’S REALLY WRONG WITH THE POLLING? http://odintext.com/blog/whats-really-wrong-with-polling/ How could so many projections have been so far off the mark? Wrong
  9. 9. Dr. Sam Wang, a polling expert who said he would eat a bug if Donald Trump won more than 240 electoral votes during Tuesday's election has made good on that promise on Saturday http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3930698/Polling-expert-eats-bug-settle-bet-against-Trump-s-shocking-election-result.html Right
  10. 10. Our analysis strongly suggested that Hillary Clinton was in more trouble than any of the other polling data to that point indicated. • The Real Problem with Polls • Well, I can’t say I told you so, because what I wrote was a colossal understatement; however, this experience has reinforced my conviction that conventional quantitative Likert-scale survey questions—the sort used in every poll—are generally not terrific predictors of actual behavior. • If I ask you a series of questions with a set of answers or a ratings scale I’m not likely to get a response that tells me anything useful. • We know that consumers (and, yes, voters) are generally not rational decision-makers; people rely on emotions and heuristics to make most of our decisions. • If I really want to understand what will drive actual behavior, the surest way to find out is by allowing you to tell me unaided, in your own words, off the top of your head. • “How important is price to you on a scale of 1-10?” is no more likely to predict actual behavior than “How important is honesty to you in a president on a scale of 1-10?” • It applies to cans of tuna and to presidents. http://odintext.com/blog/whats-really-wrong-with-polling/ Wrong
  11. 11. Nate Silver Blew It three times in a row (2014 US, 2014 UK and 2016 US) on the Election – Can His Brand Recover? NO “Nate was arrogant. His numbers were all over the place. The title of ‘guru’ is now gone,” The Hill media reporter Joe Concha told TheWrap. He said Silver’s career will survive, but “never again will he be held in any revered regard.” On Monday, Silver predicted that Trump had a 1-in-3 chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Some other pundits thought Silver was being too generous: Huffington Post Washington bureau chief Ryan Grim accused him of “putting his thumb on the scales” to give Trump a better chance of wining. (Grim tweeted an apology to Silver on Election Night, saying there was “far more uncertainty than we were accounting for.”) By Tuesday morning, Silver’s site reported that Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning the election.Wrong
  12. 12. Twitter Facial Analysis Reveals Demographics of Presidential Campaign Followers https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601074/twitter-facial-analysis-reveals-demographics-of-presidential-campaign- followers/ Not sure this helped anyone
  13. 13. Following Donald Trump's election, the war against algorithms began https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdCJYsKlX_Y For marketers, the algorithimization of the web has been a fact of life for years. Right
  14. 14. For marketers, the algorithimization of the web has been a fact of life for years. • Success or failure on the web will in large part be determined by algorithms marketers don't control, or their ability to understand and make the most of them. • Google has escaped a Microsoft-like crackdown, perhaps in part because marketers themselves are an unfavorable lot to regulators and the public. • Many are accusing Facebook's algorithm of helping Donald Trump win the election he wasn't expected to win by allowing misinformation to be widely spread across its network. Throughout the election, fake stories, sometimes papered over with flimsy “parody site” disclosures somewhere in small type, circulated throughout Facebook: The Pope endorses Trump. Hillary Clinton bought $137m in illegal arms. The Clintons bought a $200m house in the Maldives. WikiLeaks: Clintons Purchase $200 Million Maldives Estate BY SHADY GROVE | 108 COMMENTS 67.9K931 Wrong
  15. 15. Clinton’s data-driven campaign relied heavily on an algorithm named Ada. What didn’t she see? A raft of polling numbers, public and private, were fed into the algorithm, as well as ground-level voter data meticulously collected by the campaign. Once early voting began, those numbers were factored in, too. What Ada did, based on all that data, aides said, was run 400,000 simulations a day of what the race against Trump might look like. A report that was spit out would give campaign manager Robby Mook and others a detailed picture of which battleground states were most likely to tip the race in one direction or another — and guide decisions about where to spend time and deploy resources. (they probably lost their way here) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/11/09/clintons-data-driven-campaign-relied-heavily-on-an-algorithm-named-ada-what-didnt-she-see/ Wrong
  16. 16. Bad Trade Deals – The more we know, the worse it looks • The TPP are a corporate lobbyist’s dream. • Get the world’s most powerful corporations together to make a wish list of rule changes. • Bundle them into an international agreement of thousands of pages of technical legal text that few people are likely to read. • Call it a free-trade agreement and promise that it will create jobs, grow economies, and bring the world together. • Include a provision that foreign corporations can sue a signatory government for any loss of anticipated profits due to government action. • Require that these claims be decided by secret international tribunals composed of three private- sector attorneys; preclude review of the awards they grant. • Push the agreement through the national legislative bodies of the prospective member nations under rules that limit debate, prohibit amendments, and require a simple up-or-down majority vote. http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/03/27/thing-sanders-trump-and-clinton-agree-its-bad Right
  17. 17. As a result of the Election, TPP is no longer going to be enacted and other trade deals may be renegotiated Right
  18. 18. Then there was this! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3928032/Huma-breaks-weeps-openly-returns-campaign-headquarters-aides-ran- doomed-bid-elect-Hillary-Clinton.html Wrong
  19. 19. If there was anything that would “Freak Out” Evangelicals, this would! #Spiritcooking Wrong
  20. 20. #Spiritcooking was in the hashtags associated with Wikileaks http://hashtagify.me/hashtag/spiritcooking
  21. 21. #Spiritcooking emerged on 11/4/16 and dominated the weekend before the election http://hashtagify.me/hashtag/spiritcooking
  22. 22. WikiLeaks dominated the US election in October 2016 according to Facebook statistics Right https://insights.fb.com/category/hot-topics/region/united-states/
  23. 23. The Podesta Emails published by WikiLeaks balanced Clinton’s MSM collusion making it easier for Donald Trump to win. http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/07/the-44-most-damning-stories-from-wikileaks/Right
  24. 24. FBI reopens Clinton probe after new emails found in Anthony Weiner case – then closed it again 2 days before the election. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/28/fbi-reopens-investigation-into-clinton-email-use.html Wrong
  25. 25. The 44 Most Damning Stories From WikiLeaks http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/07/the-44-most-damning-stories-from-wikileaks Right
  26. 26. Hillary Clinton supporters at her election night event in New York. Wrong
  27. 27. It was the biggest polling miss in a presidential election in decades. It was the biggest polling miss in a presidential election in decades. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/13/upshot /putting-the-polling-miss-of-2016-in- perspective.html?_r=0 Wrong
  28. 28. Only the IBD/TIPP Poll and the L.A. Times/USC poll had Trump ahead on Election Day. Right
  29. 29. The IBD/TIPP Poll and the L.A. Times/USC poll were the only accurate polls, as it turned out. http://cesrusc.org/election/ Right
  30. 30. Finding out Why: Using Brandwatch Analytics determines the Top Stories from Wikileaks over the last 2 months 1. Clintons Paid Wall Street Speeches - https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/11011 (69,216 Tweets) 2. 2016 GOP presidential candidates Strategy Call (Pied Pier Strategy) – April 7, 2015 - https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/1120 (37,249 Tweets) 3. Heads Up to Justice Dept. to HRC – Peter Kadzik - https://wikileaks.org/podesta- emails/emailid/43150#efmABWAB8ACiACqACvADUADXAIF (36,000 Tweets) 4. Photo/Tweet of Full Transcripts of Clinton’s Goldman Sachs Private Speeches - https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/787343422227091457/photo/1 (35,700 Tweets) 5. Re: Princeton Study: U.S. No Longer An Actual Democracy – (25,300 Tweets) - https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/3723#efmAMnANJANLAN9 6. Last Night – Apple gives governments device information despite strong encryption - https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/30593#efmAHtANd 7. POTUS on HRC’s Emails (“we need to clean this up”) – (25,000 Tweets) - https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/31077#efmAAGABT
  31. 31. Crimson Hexagon Monitor – Who will win the Election – Clinton or Trump? Run before, during and after the Election https://forsight.crimsonhexagon.com/ch/opinion/results?id=4520674828#topicWheel?id=4520674828&start=20 16-10-27&end=2016-11- 13&collapsed=&ungraphed=&drilldownKey=&scale=NONE&authorsHidden=&sortByTwitter=undefined&sortTwit Dir=undefined&catId=&emotionId=&score=&range=&daily=&monitorsToCompare=4520674828&categoriesToCo mpare=&newStartDates=&catMixShowHidden=false&settings=&groupBy=&topicId=&affinitiesCompareStart=und efined&affinitiesCompareEnd=undefined&skipCache=false&postTimezone=&affinitiesDocumentSource=&x=4532 83851236
  32. 32. Students helped define the Crimson Hexagon Monitors which pointed the way to a Trump win.
  33. 33. Crimson Hexagon Topic Waves picked by AI
  34. 34. EMOTION: Anger
  35. 35. EMOTION: Joy
  36. 36. EMOTION: Disgust
  37. 37. EMOTION: Sadness
  38. 38. EMOTION: Surprise[–]timmyjj2 1 point 12 days ago* Markets according to insiders who know this told CNBC the market is pricing in a >60% chance he pulls it out. The Mexican peso is telling the tale, 4% drop in the peso to the dollar after the ABC poll dropped.http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MXN
  39. 39. Fear of Trump was the strongest emotion detected and peaked a few times shortly before the election
  40. 40. Expected turnout was low, and this chart suggests some reasons why.
  41. 41. Crimson Hexagon Swing State Opinion Monitor set up just before the election
  42. 42. Prediction: High End Technology (Targeting) is in a “Bubble”. The Technology did not deliver what was intended for the Clinton team or the DNC for at least a few reasons I can think off offhand, and a few more that will probably pop up, later. • 1 – The Targeting Technology and Data Science were applied by the DNC with assumptions that were incorrect (Garbage in, Garbage out). • The technology is flawed and still immature. • Better to have “No Data” than “Bad Data” or “Incorrect Assumptions” • 2 – No technology can fully compensate for bad content or a deficient candidate!
  43. 43. Facebook Mobile Data Up To 80% Inaccurate Rakuten Marketing engineers uncovered a measurement flaw in Omniture, Google Analytics, Coremetrics and other analytics packages that measure the click-through rates (CTRs) and cost per clicks (CPCs) for Facebook mobile campaigns. Attributable revenue only comprised on average 5.6% of the total revenue generated across mobile- only, desktop-only and cross-device campaigns -- and as little as 2.4% for one retailer in the study. Don’t we rely on mobile targeting more and more for hyper precision targeting and even, Programmatic? What if its all a “Bubble”? http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/288721/
  44. 44. Summary: The Filter Bubble for Analysts and Pollsters is as skewed as it is for the entire population https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/29/trump-clinton-media-left-right-democracy

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