These slides were used in an introductory lecture to Computational Finance presented in a third-year class on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. The slides present three examples of machine learning applied to computational / quantitative finance. These include
1) Model calibration (stochastic process) using the stochastic Hill Climbing algorithms.
2) Predicting Credit Default rates using a Neural Network
3) Portfolio Optimization using the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm.
All of the Python code is available for download on GitHub. Link is available at the end of the slide-show.
Reasoning is the process of deriving logical conclusions from facts or premises. There are several types of reasoning including deductive, inductive, abductive, analogical, and formal reasoning. Reasoning is a core component of artificial intelligence as AI systems must be able to reason about what they know to solve problems and draw new inferences. Formal logic provides the foundation for building reasoning systems through symbolic representations and inference rules.
The document discusses attention mechanisms for encoder-decoder neural networks. It describes traditional encoder-decoder models that compress all input information into a fixed vector, which cannot encode long sentences. Attention mechanisms allow the decoder to access the entire encoded input sequence and assign weights to input elements based on their relevance to predicting the output. The core attention model uses an alignment function to calculate energy scores between the input and output, a distribution function to calculate attention weights from the energy scores, and a weighted sum to compute the context vector used by the decoder. Various alignment functions are discussed, including dot product, additive, and deep attention.
The document describes the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) model with an encoder-decoder architecture. It explains that the seq2seq model uses two recurrent neural networks - an encoder RNN that processes the input sequence into a fixed-length context vector, and a decoder RNN that generates the output sequence from the context vector. It provides details on how the encoder, decoder, and training process work in the seq2seq model.
This document discusses weak slot-and-filler knowledge representation structures. It describes how slots represent attributes and fillers represent values. Semantic networks are provided as an example where nodes represent objects/values and links represent relationships. Property inheritance allows subclasses to inherit attributes from more general superclasses. Frames are also discussed as a type of weak structure where each frame contains slots and associated values describing an entity. The document notes challenges with tangled hierarchies and provides examples of how to resolve conflicts through inferential distance in the property inheritance algorithm.
Bayesian Networks - A Brief IntroductionAdnan Masood
- A Bayesian network is a graphical model that depicts probabilistic relationships among variables. It represents a joint probability distribution over variables in a directed acyclic graph with conditional probability tables.
- A Bayesian network consists of a directed acyclic graph whose nodes represent variables and edges represent probabilistic dependencies, along with conditional probability distributions that quantify the relationships.
- Inference using a Bayesian network allows computing probabilities like P(X|evidence) by taking into account the graph structure and probability tables.
Welcome to the Supervised Machine Learning and Data Sciences.
Algorithms for building models. Support Vector Machines.
Classification algorithm explanation and code in Python ( SVM ) .
The document summarizes key aspects of artificial neural networks and supervised learning. It discusses how biological neural networks inspired the development of artificial neural networks. The basic neuron model and perceptron are introduced as simple computing elements. Multilayer neural networks are presented as able to learn complex patterns through backpropagation algorithms that reduce errors by adjusting weights between layers.
Reasoning is the process of deriving logical conclusions from facts or premises. There are several types of reasoning including deductive, inductive, abductive, analogical, and formal reasoning. Reasoning is a core component of artificial intelligence as AI systems must be able to reason about what they know to solve problems and draw new inferences. Formal logic provides the foundation for building reasoning systems through symbolic representations and inference rules.
The document discusses attention mechanisms for encoder-decoder neural networks. It describes traditional encoder-decoder models that compress all input information into a fixed vector, which cannot encode long sentences. Attention mechanisms allow the decoder to access the entire encoded input sequence and assign weights to input elements based on their relevance to predicting the output. The core attention model uses an alignment function to calculate energy scores between the input and output, a distribution function to calculate attention weights from the energy scores, and a weighted sum to compute the context vector used by the decoder. Various alignment functions are discussed, including dot product, additive, and deep attention.
The document describes the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) model with an encoder-decoder architecture. It explains that the seq2seq model uses two recurrent neural networks - an encoder RNN that processes the input sequence into a fixed-length context vector, and a decoder RNN that generates the output sequence from the context vector. It provides details on how the encoder, decoder, and training process work in the seq2seq model.
This document discusses weak slot-and-filler knowledge representation structures. It describes how slots represent attributes and fillers represent values. Semantic networks are provided as an example where nodes represent objects/values and links represent relationships. Property inheritance allows subclasses to inherit attributes from more general superclasses. Frames are also discussed as a type of weak structure where each frame contains slots and associated values describing an entity. The document notes challenges with tangled hierarchies and provides examples of how to resolve conflicts through inferential distance in the property inheritance algorithm.
Bayesian Networks - A Brief IntroductionAdnan Masood
- A Bayesian network is a graphical model that depicts probabilistic relationships among variables. It represents a joint probability distribution over variables in a directed acyclic graph with conditional probability tables.
- A Bayesian network consists of a directed acyclic graph whose nodes represent variables and edges represent probabilistic dependencies, along with conditional probability distributions that quantify the relationships.
- Inference using a Bayesian network allows computing probabilities like P(X|evidence) by taking into account the graph structure and probability tables.
Welcome to the Supervised Machine Learning and Data Sciences.
Algorithms for building models. Support Vector Machines.
Classification algorithm explanation and code in Python ( SVM ) .
The document summarizes key aspects of artificial neural networks and supervised learning. It discusses how biological neural networks inspired the development of artificial neural networks. The basic neuron model and perceptron are introduced as simple computing elements. Multilayer neural networks are presented as able to learn complex patterns through backpropagation algorithms that reduce errors by adjusting weights between layers.
Neural networks are inspired by biological neural networks and are composed of interconnected processing elements called neurons. Neural networks can learn complex patterns and relationships through a learning process without being explicitly programmed. They are widely used for applications like pattern recognition, classification, forecasting and more. The document discusses neural network concepts like architecture, learning methods, activation functions and applications. It provides examples of biological and artificial neurons and compares their characteristics.
Linear Regression Analysis | Linear Regression in Python | Machine Learning A...Simplilearn
This Linear Regression in Machine Learning Presentation will help you understand the basics of Linear Regression algorithm - what is Linear Regression, why is it needed and how Simple Linear Regression works with solved examples, Linear regression analysis, applications of Linear Regression and Multiple Linear Regression model. At the end, we will implement a use case on profit estimation of companies using Linear Regression in Python. This Machine Learning presentation is ideal for beginners who want to understand Data Science algorithms as well as Machine Learning algorithms.
Below topics are covered in this Linear Regression Machine Learning Tutorial:
1. Introduction to Machine Learning
2. Machine Learning Algorithms
3. Applications of Linear Regression
4. Understanding Linear Regression
5. Multiple Linear Regression
6. Use case - Profit estimation of companies
What is Machine Learning: Machine Learning is an application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that provides systems the ability to automatically learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed.
- - - - - - - -
About Simplilearn Machine Learning course:
A form of artificial intelligence, Machine Learning is revolutionizing the world of computing as well as all people’s digital interactions. Machine Learning powers such innovative automated technologies as recommendation engines, facial recognition, fraud protection and even self-driving cars.This Machine Learning course prepares engineers, data scientists and other professionals with knowledge and hands-on skills required for certification and job competency in Machine Learning.
- - - - - - -
Why learn Machine Learning?
Machine Learning is taking over the world- and with that, there is a growing need among companies for professionals to know the ins and outs of Machine Learning
The Machine Learning market size is expected to grow from USD 1.03 Billion in 2016 to USD 8.81 Billion by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.1% during the forecast period.
- - - - - - -
Why learn Machine Learning?
Machine Learning is taking over the world- and with that, there is a growing need among companies for professionals to know the ins and outs of Machine Learning
The Machine Learning market size is expected to grow from USD 1.03 Billion in 2016 to USD 8.81 Billion by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.1% during the forecast period.
- - - - - - -
Who should take this Machine Learning Training Course?
We recommend this Machine Learning training course for the following professionals in particular:
1. Developers aspiring to be a data scientist or Machine Learning engineer
2. Information architects who want to gain expertise in Machine Learning algorithms
3. Analytics professionals who want to work in Machine Learning or artificial intelligence
4. Graduates looking to build a career in data science and Machine Learning
- - - - - -
The Monte Carlo method uses random numbers and probability statistics to solve complex problems through approximation. It was developed in the 1940s by physicists working on nuclear weapons who needed to model radiation shielding. The method involves defining a domain of possible inputs, randomly generating inputs from that domain, performing deterministic computations using the inputs, and aggregating the results. Monte Carlo methods are useful when problems cannot be solved analytically due to uncertainty. They are commonly used to value options and other financial derivatives.
Linear Regression Algorithm | Linear Regression in Python | Machine Learning ...Edureka!
The document discusses linear regression algorithms. It begins with an introduction to regression analysis and its uses. Then it differentiates between linear and logistic regression. Next, it defines linear regression and discusses how to find the best fit regression line using the least squares method. It also explains how to check the goodness of fit using the R-squared method. Finally, it provides an overview of implementing linear regression using Python libraries.
This document summarizes various techniques that have been used to predict stock market performance, including data mining, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, neuro-fuzzy systems, and rough set data modeling. It reviews several studies that have applied these techniques to predict movements in stock market indices. Specifically, it discusses research that used support vector machines and neural networks to predict changes in the Hang Seng Index, and that proposed a hybrid decision tree and neuro-fuzzy system to predict trends in four major international stock markets. The document concludes that while various techniques have been implemented, fusion models combining hidden Markov models, neural networks, and genetic algorithms may help control and monitor stock price behavior and fluctuations.
This document provides an introduction and overview of machine learning. It discusses different types of machine learning including supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised and reinforcement learning. It also covers key machine learning concepts like hypothesis space, inductive bias, representations, features, and more. The document provides examples to illustrate these concepts in domains like medical diagnosis, entity recognition, and image recognition.
This document provides an introduction to hidden Markov models (HMMs). It defines HMMs as an extension of Markov models that allows for observations that are probabilistic functions of hidden states. The core problems of HMMs are finding the probability of an observed sequence and determining the most probable hidden state sequence that produced an observation. HMMs have applications in areas like speech recognition by finding the most likely string of words given acoustic input using the Viterbi and forward algorithms.
Measuring and Managing Credit Risk With Machine Learning and Artificial Intel...accenture
In recent years, technological developments have undergone in-depth analysis among banks, but we are still far from attaining mature levels both at the methodological and at the credit granting, monitoring and control process levels. Banks should equip themselves with new and more structured Model Risk frameworks to manage new Machine Learning model validation paradigms. Learn more from Accenture Finance & Risk: https://accntu.re/2qGUUMx
This document discusses random number generators and reviews Intel's random number generator. It begins with an introduction to random number generation and common pseudorandom number generators like linear congruential generators. It then describes Intel's true random number generator which uses thermal noise from resistors to modulate the frequency of an oscillator. The random bits generated from the clock drift are then processed digitally before being made available through Intel's software library. Empirical and theoretical tests for evaluating random number generators are also summarized.
Random walks are stochastic processes that can model many natural phenomena. A random walk is generated by successive random steps on a mathematical structure like integers or graphs. Random walks can simulate processes like molecular motion or animal foraging. They have applications in fields like recommender systems, investment theory, and generating fractal images. A random walk on a graph corresponds to a Markov chain, with transition probabilities defined by the graph structure. Random walks approach a unique stationary distribution if the graph is connected and aperiodic. The mixing time measures how fast this convergence occurs. Random walk algorithms are used for tasks like ranking genes by likelihood of having a property or learning vertex embeddings in networks.
Classification techniques in data miningKamal Acharya
The document discusses classification algorithms in machine learning. It provides an overview of various classification algorithms including decision tree classifiers, rule-based classifiers, nearest neighbor classifiers, Bayesian classifiers, and artificial neural network classifiers. It then describes the supervised learning process for classification, which involves using a training set to construct a classification model and then applying the model to a test set to classify new data. Finally, it provides a detailed example of how a decision tree classifier is constructed from a training dataset and how it can be used to classify data in the test set.
Brief introduction on attention mechanism and its application in neural machine translation, especially in transformer, where attention was used to remove RNNs completely from NMT.
It’s long ago, approx. 30 years, since AI was not only a topic for Science-Fiction writers, but also a major research field surrounded with huge hopes and investments. But the over-inflated expectations ended in a subsequent crash and followed by a period of absent funding and interest – the so-called AI winter. However, the last 3 years changed everything – again. Deep learning, a machine learning technique inspired by the human brain, successfully crushed one benchmark after another and tech companies, like Google, Facebook and Microsoft, started to invest billions in AI research. “The pace of progress in artificial general intelligence is incredible fast” (Elon Musk – CEO Tesla & SpaceX) leading to an AI that “would be either the best or the worst thing ever to happen to humanity” (Stephen Hawking – Physicist).
What sparked this new Hype? How is Deep Learning different from previous approaches? Are the advancing AI technologies really a threat for humanity? Let’s look behind the curtain and unravel the reality. This talk will explore why Sundar Pichai (CEO Google) recently announced that “machine learning is a core transformative way by which Google is rethinking everything they are doing” and explain why "Deep Learning is probably one of the most exciting things that is happening in the computer industry” (Jen-Hsun Huang – CEO NVIDIA).
Either a new AI “winter is coming” (Ned Stark – House Stark) or this new wave of innovation might turn out as the “last invention humans ever need to make” (Nick Bostrom – AI Philosoph). Or maybe it’s just another great technology helping humans to achieve more.
This document discusses machine learning concepts like supervised and unsupervised learning. It explains that supervised learning uses known inputs and outputs to learn rules while unsupervised learning deals with unknown inputs and outputs. Classification and regression are described as types of supervised learning problems. Classification involves categorizing data into classes while regression predicts continuous, real-valued outputs. Examples of classification and regression problems are provided. Classification models like heuristic, separation, regression and probabilistic models are also mentioned. The document encourages learning more about classification algorithms in upcoming videos.
Dart builds sophisticated customer segmentation models using statistical techniques and intuition. The goal is to create distinct customer segments that are predictive of behavior and can be implemented for marketing purposes. Dart analyzes customer, transaction, and demographic data to develop segments. The segmentation process involves data preparation, analysis, model development, and validation of segments. Segments are then profiled and analyzed financially to optimize marketing strategies.
Hot Topics in Machine Learning For Research and thesisWriteMyThesis
Machine Learning and its subsequent fields have undergone tremendous growth in the past few years. It has a number of potential applications and is being used in different fields. A lot of research work is going on in this field. For more information, check out the PPT details...
This document discusses various knowledge representation methods used in expert systems, including rules, semantic networks, frames, and constraints. It provides examples and explanations of each method. Procedural and declarative programming techniques are also covered. Forward and backward chaining for rule-based inference engines are explained through examples. Propositional and predicate logic are discussed as mathematical methods for representing knowledge.
This describes the supervised machine learning, supervised learning categorisation( regression and classification) and their types, applications of supervised machine learning, etc.
The document discusses different types of knowledge that may need to be represented in AI systems, including objects, events, performance, and meta-knowledge. It also discusses representing knowledge at two levels: the knowledge level containing facts, and the symbol level containing representations of objects defined in terms of symbols. Common ways of representing knowledge mentioned include using English, logic, relations, semantic networks, frames, and rules. The document also discusses using knowledge for applications like learning, reasoning, and different approaches to machine learning such as skill refinement, knowledge acquisition, taking advice, problem solving, induction, discovery, and analogy.
This document provides an overview of machine learning topics including linear regression, linear classification models, decision trees, random forests, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, and regression analysis. It defines machine learning, describes how machines learn through training, validation and application phases, and lists applications of machine learning such as risk assessment and fraud detection. It also explains key machine learning algorithms and techniques including linear regression, naive bayes, support vector machines, decision trees, gradient descent, least squares, multiple linear regression, bayesian linear regression, and types of machine learning models.
Neural networks are inspired by biological neural networks and are composed of interconnected processing elements called neurons. Neural networks can learn complex patterns and relationships through a learning process without being explicitly programmed. They are widely used for applications like pattern recognition, classification, forecasting and more. The document discusses neural network concepts like architecture, learning methods, activation functions and applications. It provides examples of biological and artificial neurons and compares their characteristics.
Linear Regression Analysis | Linear Regression in Python | Machine Learning A...Simplilearn
This Linear Regression in Machine Learning Presentation will help you understand the basics of Linear Regression algorithm - what is Linear Regression, why is it needed and how Simple Linear Regression works with solved examples, Linear regression analysis, applications of Linear Regression and Multiple Linear Regression model. At the end, we will implement a use case on profit estimation of companies using Linear Regression in Python. This Machine Learning presentation is ideal for beginners who want to understand Data Science algorithms as well as Machine Learning algorithms.
Below topics are covered in this Linear Regression Machine Learning Tutorial:
1. Introduction to Machine Learning
2. Machine Learning Algorithms
3. Applications of Linear Regression
4. Understanding Linear Regression
5. Multiple Linear Regression
6. Use case - Profit estimation of companies
What is Machine Learning: Machine Learning is an application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) that provides systems the ability to automatically learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed.
- - - - - - - -
About Simplilearn Machine Learning course:
A form of artificial intelligence, Machine Learning is revolutionizing the world of computing as well as all people’s digital interactions. Machine Learning powers such innovative automated technologies as recommendation engines, facial recognition, fraud protection and even self-driving cars.This Machine Learning course prepares engineers, data scientists and other professionals with knowledge and hands-on skills required for certification and job competency in Machine Learning.
- - - - - - -
Why learn Machine Learning?
Machine Learning is taking over the world- and with that, there is a growing need among companies for professionals to know the ins and outs of Machine Learning
The Machine Learning market size is expected to grow from USD 1.03 Billion in 2016 to USD 8.81 Billion by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.1% during the forecast period.
- - - - - - -
Why learn Machine Learning?
Machine Learning is taking over the world- and with that, there is a growing need among companies for professionals to know the ins and outs of Machine Learning
The Machine Learning market size is expected to grow from USD 1.03 Billion in 2016 to USD 8.81 Billion by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.1% during the forecast period.
- - - - - - -
Who should take this Machine Learning Training Course?
We recommend this Machine Learning training course for the following professionals in particular:
1. Developers aspiring to be a data scientist or Machine Learning engineer
2. Information architects who want to gain expertise in Machine Learning algorithms
3. Analytics professionals who want to work in Machine Learning or artificial intelligence
4. Graduates looking to build a career in data science and Machine Learning
- - - - - -
The Monte Carlo method uses random numbers and probability statistics to solve complex problems through approximation. It was developed in the 1940s by physicists working on nuclear weapons who needed to model radiation shielding. The method involves defining a domain of possible inputs, randomly generating inputs from that domain, performing deterministic computations using the inputs, and aggregating the results. Monte Carlo methods are useful when problems cannot be solved analytically due to uncertainty. They are commonly used to value options and other financial derivatives.
Linear Regression Algorithm | Linear Regression in Python | Machine Learning ...Edureka!
The document discusses linear regression algorithms. It begins with an introduction to regression analysis and its uses. Then it differentiates between linear and logistic regression. Next, it defines linear regression and discusses how to find the best fit regression line using the least squares method. It also explains how to check the goodness of fit using the R-squared method. Finally, it provides an overview of implementing linear regression using Python libraries.
This document summarizes various techniques that have been used to predict stock market performance, including data mining, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, neuro-fuzzy systems, and rough set data modeling. It reviews several studies that have applied these techniques to predict movements in stock market indices. Specifically, it discusses research that used support vector machines and neural networks to predict changes in the Hang Seng Index, and that proposed a hybrid decision tree and neuro-fuzzy system to predict trends in four major international stock markets. The document concludes that while various techniques have been implemented, fusion models combining hidden Markov models, neural networks, and genetic algorithms may help control and monitor stock price behavior and fluctuations.
This document provides an introduction and overview of machine learning. It discusses different types of machine learning including supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised and reinforcement learning. It also covers key machine learning concepts like hypothesis space, inductive bias, representations, features, and more. The document provides examples to illustrate these concepts in domains like medical diagnosis, entity recognition, and image recognition.
This document provides an introduction to hidden Markov models (HMMs). It defines HMMs as an extension of Markov models that allows for observations that are probabilistic functions of hidden states. The core problems of HMMs are finding the probability of an observed sequence and determining the most probable hidden state sequence that produced an observation. HMMs have applications in areas like speech recognition by finding the most likely string of words given acoustic input using the Viterbi and forward algorithms.
Measuring and Managing Credit Risk With Machine Learning and Artificial Intel...accenture
In recent years, technological developments have undergone in-depth analysis among banks, but we are still far from attaining mature levels both at the methodological and at the credit granting, monitoring and control process levels. Banks should equip themselves with new and more structured Model Risk frameworks to manage new Machine Learning model validation paradigms. Learn more from Accenture Finance & Risk: https://accntu.re/2qGUUMx
This document discusses random number generators and reviews Intel's random number generator. It begins with an introduction to random number generation and common pseudorandom number generators like linear congruential generators. It then describes Intel's true random number generator which uses thermal noise from resistors to modulate the frequency of an oscillator. The random bits generated from the clock drift are then processed digitally before being made available through Intel's software library. Empirical and theoretical tests for evaluating random number generators are also summarized.
Random walks are stochastic processes that can model many natural phenomena. A random walk is generated by successive random steps on a mathematical structure like integers or graphs. Random walks can simulate processes like molecular motion or animal foraging. They have applications in fields like recommender systems, investment theory, and generating fractal images. A random walk on a graph corresponds to a Markov chain, with transition probabilities defined by the graph structure. Random walks approach a unique stationary distribution if the graph is connected and aperiodic. The mixing time measures how fast this convergence occurs. Random walk algorithms are used for tasks like ranking genes by likelihood of having a property or learning vertex embeddings in networks.
Classification techniques in data miningKamal Acharya
The document discusses classification algorithms in machine learning. It provides an overview of various classification algorithms including decision tree classifiers, rule-based classifiers, nearest neighbor classifiers, Bayesian classifiers, and artificial neural network classifiers. It then describes the supervised learning process for classification, which involves using a training set to construct a classification model and then applying the model to a test set to classify new data. Finally, it provides a detailed example of how a decision tree classifier is constructed from a training dataset and how it can be used to classify data in the test set.
Brief introduction on attention mechanism and its application in neural machine translation, especially in transformer, where attention was used to remove RNNs completely from NMT.
It’s long ago, approx. 30 years, since AI was not only a topic for Science-Fiction writers, but also a major research field surrounded with huge hopes and investments. But the over-inflated expectations ended in a subsequent crash and followed by a period of absent funding and interest – the so-called AI winter. However, the last 3 years changed everything – again. Deep learning, a machine learning technique inspired by the human brain, successfully crushed one benchmark after another and tech companies, like Google, Facebook and Microsoft, started to invest billions in AI research. “The pace of progress in artificial general intelligence is incredible fast” (Elon Musk – CEO Tesla & SpaceX) leading to an AI that “would be either the best or the worst thing ever to happen to humanity” (Stephen Hawking – Physicist).
What sparked this new Hype? How is Deep Learning different from previous approaches? Are the advancing AI technologies really a threat for humanity? Let’s look behind the curtain and unravel the reality. This talk will explore why Sundar Pichai (CEO Google) recently announced that “machine learning is a core transformative way by which Google is rethinking everything they are doing” and explain why "Deep Learning is probably one of the most exciting things that is happening in the computer industry” (Jen-Hsun Huang – CEO NVIDIA).
Either a new AI “winter is coming” (Ned Stark – House Stark) or this new wave of innovation might turn out as the “last invention humans ever need to make” (Nick Bostrom – AI Philosoph). Or maybe it’s just another great technology helping humans to achieve more.
This document discusses machine learning concepts like supervised and unsupervised learning. It explains that supervised learning uses known inputs and outputs to learn rules while unsupervised learning deals with unknown inputs and outputs. Classification and regression are described as types of supervised learning problems. Classification involves categorizing data into classes while regression predicts continuous, real-valued outputs. Examples of classification and regression problems are provided. Classification models like heuristic, separation, regression and probabilistic models are also mentioned. The document encourages learning more about classification algorithms in upcoming videos.
Dart builds sophisticated customer segmentation models using statistical techniques and intuition. The goal is to create distinct customer segments that are predictive of behavior and can be implemented for marketing purposes. Dart analyzes customer, transaction, and demographic data to develop segments. The segmentation process involves data preparation, analysis, model development, and validation of segments. Segments are then profiled and analyzed financially to optimize marketing strategies.
Hot Topics in Machine Learning For Research and thesisWriteMyThesis
Machine Learning and its subsequent fields have undergone tremendous growth in the past few years. It has a number of potential applications and is being used in different fields. A lot of research work is going on in this field. For more information, check out the PPT details...
This document discusses various knowledge representation methods used in expert systems, including rules, semantic networks, frames, and constraints. It provides examples and explanations of each method. Procedural and declarative programming techniques are also covered. Forward and backward chaining for rule-based inference engines are explained through examples. Propositional and predicate logic are discussed as mathematical methods for representing knowledge.
This describes the supervised machine learning, supervised learning categorisation( regression and classification) and their types, applications of supervised machine learning, etc.
The document discusses different types of knowledge that may need to be represented in AI systems, including objects, events, performance, and meta-knowledge. It also discusses representing knowledge at two levels: the knowledge level containing facts, and the symbol level containing representations of objects defined in terms of symbols. Common ways of representing knowledge mentioned include using English, logic, relations, semantic networks, frames, and rules. The document also discusses using knowledge for applications like learning, reasoning, and different approaches to machine learning such as skill refinement, knowledge acquisition, taking advice, problem solving, induction, discovery, and analogy.
This document provides an overview of machine learning topics including linear regression, linear classification models, decision trees, random forests, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, and regression analysis. It defines machine learning, describes how machines learn through training, validation and application phases, and lists applications of machine learning such as risk assessment and fraud detection. It also explains key machine learning algorithms and techniques including linear regression, naive bayes, support vector machines, decision trees, gradient descent, least squares, multiple linear regression, bayesian linear regression, and types of machine learning models.
Machine Learning techniques used in Artificial Intelligence- Supervised, Unsupervised, Reinforcement Learning. It discusses about Linear Regression, Logistic Regression, SVM, Random forest, KNN, K-Means Clustering and Apriori Algorithm. It also Illustrates the applications of AI in various fields.
Study on Evaluation of Venture Capital Based onInteractive Projection Algorithminventionjournals
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Md simulation and stochastic simulationAbdulAhad358
Stochastic simulation involves modeling systems with random variables. It generates random values for insertion into models to understand probable outcomes. Molecular dynamic simulation computationally simulates atom and molecule movements over time based on forces. It provides time-dependent behavior analysis of biological molecules to study structure, dynamics, and thermodynamics without harming environments. Both methods help understand complex systems through numerous replications under varying scenarios.
MACHINE LEARNING AND ITS APPLICATIONS (2).pptxssuser442651
Machine learning is the field of study that allows computers to learn without being explicitly programmed. The document discusses several types of machine learning including supervised learning techniques like classification and regression algorithms, unsupervised learning techniques like clustering, and reinforcement learning. It provides examples of applications for each type of machine learning such as spam filtering, loan approval, tumor prediction, and product recommendations.
This document discusses multiple linear regression analysis. It defines multiple regression as containing more than one independent variable. The key steps of multiple regression analysis are described, including feature selection, normalizing features, selecting a loss function and hypothesis, setting hypothesis parameters, minimizing the loss function, and testing the hypothesis. Advantages include understanding relationships between variables, while disadvantages include complexity and interpretation challenges with smaller datasets.
This document provides an overview of consumer credit risk modeling and scoring. It discusses various statistical methods used for credit scoring like logistic regression, neural networks, and support vector machines (SVM). For SVM, it describes how the optimal separating hyperplane is chosen to maximize the margin between different classes of data. It also discusses challenges in consumer lending and best practices for credit risk management.
This document provides an overview of machine learning and logistic regression. It discusses key concepts in machine learning like representation, evaluation, and optimization. It also discusses different machine learning algorithms like decision trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. The document then focuses on logistic regression, explaining concepts like maximum likelihood estimation, concordance, and confusion matrices which are used to evaluate logistic regression models. It provides an example of using logistic regression for a banking customer classification problem to predict defaults.
This is an elaborate presentation on how to predict employee attrition using various machine learning models. This presentation will take you through the process of statistical model building using Python.
The document outlines the course contents for a theory course on machine learning. It covers 5 units: (1) introduction to machine learning concepts including regression, probability, statistics, linear algebra, convex optimization, and data preprocessing; (2) linear and nonlinear models including neural networks, loss functions, and regularization; (3) convolutional neural networks; (4) recurrent neural networks; and (5) support vector machines and applications of machine learning. It also lists recommended textbooks on pattern recognition, machine learning, and deep learning.
An application of artificial intelligent neural network and discriminant anal...Alexander Decker
This document presents a study that compares the predictive abilities of artificial neural networks and linear discriminant analysis for credit scoring. A credit dataset from a Nigerian bank with 200 applicants and 15 variables is used to build both neural network and linear discriminant models. The models are evaluated based on measures like accuracy, Wilks' lambda, and canonical correlation. Key findings are that the neural network model performs slightly better with less misclassification cost. However, variable selection is important for both models' success. Age, length of service, and other borrowing are found to be the most important predictor variables.
In Machine Learning in Credit Risk Modeling, we provide an explanation of the main Machine Learning models used in James so that Efficiency does not come at the expense of Explainability.
(Contact Yvan De Munck for more info or to receive other and future updates on the subject @yvandemunck or yvan@james.finance)
This document discusses methods of simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. It is authored by a group including Roy Thomas, Sam Scaria, Sonu Sebastian, and others. The document defines simulation as using a model of a real system to conduct experiments on a computer in order to describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the real system. Monte Carlo simulation is described as using probability and sampling to solve complicated equations. Key steps of Monte Carlo simulation include drawing a flow diagram, determining variable distributions, selecting random numbers, and applying mathematical functions to obtain solutions. Examples of applications include queuing problems, inventory problems, and risk analysis.
1) Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence that allows computers to learn without being explicitly programmed by finding patterns in data.
2) There are three main types of machine learning problems: supervised learning which uses labeled training data, unsupervised learning which finds hidden patterns in unlabeled data, and reinforcement learning where a system learns from feedback of rewards and punishments.
3) Key machine learning concepts include linear regression, which finds a linear relationship between variables, and gradient descent, an algorithm for minimizing cost functions to optimize model parameters like slope and intercept of a linear regression line.
This document provides an introduction to Monte Carlo simulation. It discusses the motivation for using Monte Carlo simulation over deterministic models, as it allows for risk assessment and is closer to reality. The document outlines the basic process of Monte Carlo simulation, including generating random inputs, evaluating the model, repeating, and analyzing results. It also provides examples and discusses benefits like better planning due to more realistic estimations. It recommends focusing on high-risk tasks and including minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates in project templates to improve using Monte Carlo simulation.
This document provides an overview of machine learning concepts and techniques including linear regression, logistic regression, unsupervised learning, and k-means clustering. It discusses how machine learning involves using data to train models that can then be used to make predictions on new data. Key machine learning types covered are supervised learning (regression, classification), unsupervised learning (clustering), and reinforcement learning. Example machine learning applications are also mentioned such as spam filtering, recommender systems, and autonomous vehicles.
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The document provides an overview of machine learning concepts including linear regression, artificial neural networks, and convolutional neural networks. It discusses how artificial neural networks are inspired by biological neurons and can learn relationships in data. The document uses the MNIST dataset example to demonstrate how a neural network can be trained to classify images of handwritten digits using backpropagation to adjust weights to minimize error. TensorFlow is introduced as a popular Python library for building machine learning models, enabling flexible creation and training of neural networks.
The document provides an overview of credit scoring and scorecard development. It discusses:
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- The types of clients that are categorized for scoring, including good, bad, indeterminate, insufficient, excluded, and rejected.
- The research objectives and challenges in building statistical models to assign risk scores and monitor model performance.
- The research methodology involving data partitioning, variable binning, scorecard modeling using logistic regression, and scorecard evaluation metrics like KS, Gini, and lift.
Similar to Computational Finance Introductory Lecture (20)
PyData London 2024: Mistakes were made (Dr. Rebecca Bilbro)Rebecca Bilbro
To honor ten years of PyData London, join Dr. Rebecca Bilbro as she takes us back in time to reflect on a little over ten years working as a data scientist. One of the many renegade PhDs who joined the fledgling field of data science of the 2010's, Rebecca will share lessons learned the hard way, often from watching data science projects go sideways and learning to fix broken things. Through the lens of these canon events, she'll identify some of the anti-patterns and red flags she's learned to steer around.
06-20-2024-AI Camp Meetup-Unstructured Data and Vector DatabasesTimothy Spann
Tech Talk: Unstructured Data and Vector Databases
Speaker: Tim Spann (Zilliz)
Abstract: In this session, I will discuss the unstructured data and the world of vector databases, we will see how they different from traditional databases. In which cases you need one and in which you probably don’t. I will also go over Similarity Search, where do you get vectors from and an example of a Vector Database Architecture. Wrapping up with an overview of Milvus.
Introduction
Unstructured data, vector databases, traditional databases, similarity search
Vectors
Where, What, How, Why Vectors? We’ll cover a Vector Database Architecture
Introducing Milvus
What drives Milvus' Emergence as the most widely adopted vector database
Hi Unstructured Data Friends!
I hope this video had all the unstructured data processing, AI and Vector Database demo you needed for now. If not, there’s a ton more linked below.
My source code is available here
https://github.com/tspannhw/
Let me know in the comments if you liked what you saw, how I can improve and what should I show next? Thanks, hope to see you soon at a Meetup in Princeton, Philadelphia, New York City or here in the Youtube Matrix.
Get Milvused!
https://milvus.io/
Read my Newsletter every week!
https://github.com/tspannhw/FLiPStackWeekly/blob/main/141-10June2024.md
For more cool Unstructured Data, AI and Vector Database videos check out the Milvus vector database videos here
https://www.youtube.com/@MilvusVectorDatabase/videos
Unstructured Data Meetups -
https://www.meetup.com/unstructured-data-meetup-new-york/
https://lu.ma/calendar/manage/cal-VNT79trvj0jS8S7
https://www.meetup.com/pro/unstructureddata/
https://zilliz.com/community/unstructured-data-meetup
https://zilliz.com/event
Twitter/X: https://x.com/milvusio https://x.com/paasdev
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/zilliz/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothyspann/
GitHub: https://github.com/milvus-io/milvus https://github.com/tspannhw
Invitation to join Discord: https://discord.com/invite/FjCMmaJng6
Blogs: https://milvusio.medium.com/ https://www.opensourcevectordb.cloud/ https://medium.com/@tspann
https://www.meetup.com/unstructured-data-meetup-new-york/events/301383476/?slug=unstructured-data-meetup-new-york&eventId=301383476
https://www.aicamp.ai/event/eventdetails/W2024062014
We are pleased to share with you the latest VCOSA statistical report on the cotton and yarn industry for the month of March 2024.
Starting from January 2024, the full weekly and monthly reports will only be available for free to VCOSA members. To access the complete weekly report with figures, charts, and detailed analysis of the cotton fiber market in the past week, interested parties are kindly requested to contact VCOSA to subscribe to the newsletter.
2. Computational Finance
The design, development, testing, and implementation of software that realizes
quantitative financial models for portfolio management and trading (front office), risk
management (middle office), and financial engineering and pricing (back office).
Machine Learning
Statistical Inference, Inductive Reasoning,
Mathematical Optimization – derive a model from past
experiences from which to understand something.
Computer Science
High Performance
Computing, Data
Structures, Algorithms,
Simulation Methods.
Statistics & Math
Probability theory,
Stochastic Calculus,
Optimization theory,
Numerical methods.
Financial Theory
Micro and Macro
Economics, Modern
Portfolio Theory, Risk
Management, and
Security Analysis.
Securities include Fixed
Income, Equities,
Derivatives, Structured
Products, Alternatives,
Commodities, and more.
3. “There's no question that the computer
scientist is much more highly valued
today than has ever been the case.”
John Lehoczky professor of statistics at Carnegie Mellon speaking about the
future of Quantitative Finance post the 2008 financial crisis.
Source - http://www.americanbanker.com/news/bank-technology/young-
quants-shift-from-risk-taking-to-risk-management-1074476-1.html
5. CompFin in the Back Office
• Financial Engineers create products and come up with models to price them.
Derivatives are securities whose value depends on some underlying security.
• Many complex derivatives need to be priced using simulation methods which are
computationally expensive. One solution to this is to implement the models to run
on GPU’s which perform floating point and matrix operations much faster.
• How to price a derivative using simulation methods - calibrate a stochastic
processes to the underlying; simulate the underlying; compute the pay-off from
the derivatives for each simulation; then present value the pay-offs to today.
• Calibration is an optimization problem. Given a stochastic process (and historical
data) what are the optimal parameters for the model? The more complex the
model i.e. the more parameters it has, the more difficult it is to optimize.
6. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Background Information I
• Stochastic processes are collections of random variables which describe
the evolution of a system over some period of time.
• One stochastic process is the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. This process is
mean-reverting and is sometimes used to model interest rates.
• The stochastic differential equation for the Ornstein Uhlenbeck model is:
𝑑𝑟𝑡 = 𝑎 𝑏 − 𝑟𝑡 𝑑𝑡 + 𝜎𝑑𝑊𝑡
where 𝑑𝑟𝑡 is the change in an interest rate; 𝑏 is the average interest rate over time; 𝑎 is the
rate of mean-reversion; 𝜎 is volatility; and 𝑊𝑡 is a Wiener process. Wiener process, also
called Brownian Motion, is just a normally distributed stochastic process.
7. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Background Information II
• So how can we find the correct values for 𝑏, 𝑎, and 𝜎? This is where some
machine learning (optimization) can come in handy.
• From the SDE for the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process we saw that there is
some relationship between the previous and the next interest rate.
• Multiple linear regression is a statistical way of expressing the linear
relationship between a dependent variable and independent variables.
𝑦 = 𝛽1 𝑥1 + ⋯ + 𝛽 𝑛 𝑥 𝑛 + 𝜀
• Hill climbing can be used to find the optimal values for 𝛽1 … 𝛽 𝑛 and 𝜀 i.e.
we search for the values which minimize some objective function.
8. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Example Output
• The relationship between 𝑟𝑡−1 and 𝑟𝑡
9. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Approach taken I
• Generate a random solution 𝑧, whose value represents the vector,
𝛽1, 𝛽2, … , 𝛽 𝑛 . Then generate a set of m neighbors to 𝑧, Z ∈ 𝒛 𝟏
′
, … , 𝒛 𝒎
′
,
calculate the solution with the best fitness, 𝒛∗, and update z ← 𝒛∗. Repeat.
• The fitness is measured by the distance between the regression line and
the points. Remember the points are pairs of (𝑟𝑡−1, 𝑟𝑡). Given any 𝑟𝑡−1 and
a solution we can compute the expected value for 𝑟𝑡′ and vice versa.
• The objective is to minimize the sum
of the product of the distance
between each 𝑟𝑡′ (given 𝑟𝑡−1) and 𝑟𝑡;
and each 𝑟𝑡−1′ (given 𝑟𝑡) and 𝑟𝑡−1. This
is also called the sum of perpendicular
offsets from a regression line.
10. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Example Output I
• The result – the hill-climber algorithm finds a nice line between 𝑟𝑡−1 and 𝑟𝑡
11. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Approach Taken II
• Now using some pretty fancy mathematics which uses the horizontal,
vertical, and perpendicular offsets … as well as the sum of 𝑟𝑡−1
2
and 𝑟𝑡
2
we
can derive the approximate parameter values for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
stochastic process. Then we have successfully calibrated the model .
• For the intrepid student here is a link to the fancy mathematics -
http://www.sitmo.com/article/calibrating-the-ornstein-uhlenbeck-model/
12. EX 1 Model Calibration using Hill Climbers
Example Output II
• The resulting interest rates have similar statistical properties,
– Known process – {𝑏 = 0.75, 𝑎 = 3.0, 𝜎 = 0.25}
– Regressed values – {𝑏 = 0.72, 𝑎 = 3.2, 𝜎 = 0.25}
14. CompFin in the Middle Office
• Quantitative Analysts in the middle office are responsible for managing financial
risks, validating back-office models, and ongoing financial reporting.
• Financial risk can be broken down into many ways. One definition of risk is the
factors which drive return. Factors could include market volatility, interest rate
volatility, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, credit-worthiness of individuals, etc.
• The role of computational finance in this space is to build models which quantify
the factors of financial risk. For example, models would answer questions like:
– What is the maximum one-day loss on this portfolio within a 99% confidence interval? (VaR)
– How sensitive is this portfolio / security to a one basis point increase in interest rates? (PV01)
– What is the probability of our creditors defaulting within the next year? (Credit Scorecards)
• The biggest applications of machine learning in the middle office is credit risk
management (default probabilities) and fraud detection (behaviour analysis).
15. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Background Information I
• Credit risk is the risk that somebody will default on their credit. It is important for
banks to predict what the probability of somebody defaulting is prior to them
issuing loans. One technique for credit scoring is to use neural networks.
• The inputs into the neural network is data about the individual – age, income, net
worth, etc. There are example credit data sets on the UCI machine learning page.
• A neural network is a computational model that approximates the relationship
between a set of independent variables (inputs) and some dependent variable
(output). In that way it is very similar to a multiple linear regression.
• In fact, neurons in a neural network are MLR’s which feed into (usually) some non-
linear activation function e.g. sigmoid or tan-h. In other words, a neural network is
a set of non-linear regressions between the inputs and the outputs.
16. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Background Information II
One perceptron acts
similarly to a linear / non-
linear regression
Multiple perceptrons
connected together form
a set of linear / non-linear
regression functions
which essentially
approximate a complex
function between the
inputs and outputs
17. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Background Information III
• The objective of a neural network is to optimize the weights of the inputs into
each one of the perceptrons such that the error of the network is minimized. This
is often done using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm (gradient descent)
• This technique works by calculating the partial derivative of the sum-squared error
with respect to the weights for each neuron (automatic differentiation) and
adjusting the weights by the negative gradient. Basically it goes down the hill.
Minimize the sum-
squared error
(distance squared
between the expected
values a.k.a targets
and the output
produced by the
neural network an
input pattern)
18. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Background Information IV
19. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Background Information V
• But … the weights in a neural network can be viewed in vector notation. As such,
you can use any optimization algorithm to train a neural network including hill-
climbers, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithms, random search, etc.
20. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Approach Taken
• Download some historical credit data from the UCI Machine Learning
repository online. This contains data in the form,
– Attributes -> Target Value
• Wrangle the data until it is represented using values (not characters) and
is within the active range of the activation functions in the NN.
• Split the data into a training and a testing (validation) set. Train the neural
network on the testing set until it has learn the relationship between the
input attributes and the target value (credit risk or not credit risk)
• Then test the neural network on the testing set to check for over-fitting.
21. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Example Output I
Weight Matrices are a good way to understand (non-deep) neural networks
Initial Weight Matrix Final Weight Matrix
22. EX 2 Credit Risk Modelling using Neural Networks
Example Output II
Accuracy on Training set = 85.87896253602305 %
Accuracy on Testing set = 83.5734870317003 %
Good! Not over-fitting
24. CompFin in the Front Office
• Arguably the most exciting (and best compensated) application of computational
finance is the front office. Front office quantitative analysts or traders are mostly
responsible for constructing portfolios and algorithmic trading strategies.
• Portfolio optimization involves trying to determine how much capital to invest into
which assets in the portfolio. This involves forecasting the expected risk and return
of individual assets in the portfolio (can be done using Machine Learning) and then
changing the weights of the portfolio to maximize risk adjusted return.
• Quantitative trading strategies are powered by models which consider different
factors such as momentum, mean reversion, quantitative value, and events to
make trading decisions i.e. what to buy and when. Some firms use neural networks
and other machine learning models but be-warned, markets are dynamic.
25. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Background Information I
• Portfolio optimization is the problem of apportioning a given amount of capital
between the constituent assets of a portfolio such that the expected risk-adjusted
return of the portfolio is maximized over some future period of time.
– Inputs – future expectations of risk and return for each asset
– Inputs – expected correlation matrix between each one of the assets
– Outputs – the weight of capital which should be allocated to each asset
– Objective – maximize the expected risk-adjusted-return of the portfolio e.g. Sharpe Ratio
• There are many different measures of risk-adjusted-return. The first phase of my
Masters research involves characterizing these functions in high dimensional space
(a large number of assets) under various equality and inequality constraints.
• The most popular measure of risk adjusted return is the Sharpe Ratio
𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑝𝑒 =
𝐸(𝑟𝑃 − 𝑟𝑓)
𝜎 𝑃
26. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Background Information II
• How do you calculate the expected returns for each asset?
– Option 1 – use historical mean return assuming that the distribution is stationary
– Option 2 – forecast expected returns using some technique e.g. neural networks / quant method
• How do you calculate the expected risk of each asset?
– Option 1 – use historical volatility again assuming that the distribution is stationary
– Option 2 – use a model e.g. stochastic process to simulate how the asset evolves over time
• How do you get the expected risk and return of the portfolio?
– Expected return is equal to the sum product of the expected return on the assets and the weights
𝑟𝑃 =
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑤𝑖 𝐸(𝑟𝑖)
– The expected risk of the portfolio is equal to the sum product of the volatilities minus diversification
𝜎 𝑃
2
=
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑗=1
𝑛
𝑤𝑖 𝑤𝑗 𝑐𝑜𝑣(𝑟𝑖 𝑟𝑗) =
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑗=1
𝑛
𝑤𝑖 𝑤𝑗 𝜎𝑖 𝜎𝑗 𝜌𝑖𝑗
27. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Background Information III
• Particle Swarm Optimization is a meta-heuristic population-based global nature-
inspired optimization algorithm … whew!
• The algorithm essentially uses direct-search (line-of-sight) method to update the
solutions in the swarm. I.e. a solution is directed towards two points – it’s personal
best position to date; and the global best-position (the best personal best)
• The position update rule for the canonical g-best PSO is,
𝑥𝑖 𝑡 + 1 = 𝑥𝑖 𝑡 + 𝑣𝑖 𝑡 + 1 where
𝑣𝑖𝑗 𝑡 + 1 = 𝑣𝑖𝑗 𝑡 + 𝑐1 𝑟1𝑗 𝑡 𝑦𝑖𝑗 𝑡 − 𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑡 + 𝑐2 𝑟2𝑗(𝑡)[𝑦′𝑖𝑗(𝑡) − 𝑥𝑖𝑗(𝑡)]
• That’s complicated, but basically it boils down to :- next solution = current solution
plus velocity; where next velocity = current velocity + cognitive component (move
towards the personal best) + social component (move towards the global best)
28. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Background Information IV
• Illustration of how PSO works in a ‘two dimensional’ case
• Each particle (vector – green dot) moves (in high dimensional space) towards it’s best
historical position (grey dot) and the best position from the swarm.
• For portfolio optimization each dot (vector) is a portfolio (weight vector)
29. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Approach Taken
• Download some historical JSE price data from Quandl.com for our portfolio of blue
chip stocks: {SBK, ANG, BIL, SHP, WHL, VOD, MTN, DSY, SLM}
• Define a strategy for predicting what the future returns for each asset will be. Our
strategy is that the previous six months = the next six months.
• Slice the data into six-monthly segments, optimize the portfolio weights on the
historical six months, then calculate the returns in the next six months.
• Doing this from 2010 – 2015, 10 six-month periods, therefore results in 10
optimization problems that happen over-time. Avoid any biases!
• Compare these results to a benchmark portfolio such as an equally weighted
portfolio of the stocks i.e. each stock has an equal weight.
30. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Example Output
• This is the output produced from a silly trend-following strategy.
Eq s = 0.0003904503493283587 r = 0.006431238387474281 f = 0.35289313566293007
Op s = 0.0007074653788236298 r = 0.00875007503958214 f = 0.2548364776503159
31. EX 3 Portfolio Optimization using PSO
Problems with Portfolio Optimization
• In this strategy the assets are expected to produce similar returns in the next six
months as they did in the previous six months. As such the portfolio is optimized
over historical data and the returns from this are calculated and compounded.
• The problem with portfolio optimization is that it maximizes errors. In other words,
garbage-in = garbage-out. The quality of your optimized portfolio is directly
proportional to the accuracy of your model and it’s predictions.
• Other problems with portfolio optimization include biases such as look-ahead bias,
data-mining bias, sample selection bias, random number generator biases, etc.
32. For more information
• www.Quandl.com – a website with tones of free financial data and a great API.
• www.QuantStart.com – a website dedicated to helping you start your quant career.
• www.Quantocracy.com – an aggregation of mostly quantitative trading blogs.
• www.Quantopian.com – an online python back-testing and paper trading platform.
• www.StuartReid.co.za – where computer science and quantitative finance meet.
• The code used in this lecture is available
https://github.com/StuartGordonReid/Comp-Fin-Lecture