- The document analyzes voting patterns in the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections using data from the American National Election Studies.
- It finds that a high proportion (around 89.5%) of respondents had similar voting preferences in both elections, indicating voting preferences do not significantly change between elections for most voters.
- There are some variations in voting patterns between different states, with certain states traditionally voting more for Democratic or Republican candidates.
This paper explores whether racial prejudice affected the results of the 2016 Republican primary elections. The author uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between the percentage of votes Donald Trump received in each state and various measures of racism, including hate crime rates, numbers of hate groups, and racially charged Google searches. The analysis found that Trump performed better in states with higher levels of hate crimes and more hate groups per capita. This suggests that racial prejudice may have contributed to Trump's success in the 2016 Republican primaries.
The document discusses various topics related to the dynamics of voting, including 2012 exit polls, how the makeup of the electorate varies in different elections, ballot initiatives and electoral timing, and theories of surge and decline in voter turnout. It also examines how voters decide, changing voter distributions between presidential and midterm elections, and evidence that the timing of an election can systematically affect the results of ballot initiative campaigns.
Predicting Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Electionjemccull
Predicting Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election: Assessing the Impact of Battleground Status and Early Voting Opportunities. Author: Jenna McCulloch. Faculty Mentor: Dr. Kiki Caruson.
Critics of the new legislative maps unveiled by Indiana House Republicans say they "have have historically extreme levels of partisan bias.” Women4Change Indiana engaged national gerrymandering expert Dr. Christopher Warshaw to analyze the new maps for US Congressional districts and the districts for Indiana House of Representatives presented by the Indiana House Elections Committee on Tuesday.
Magellan Strategies Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey April 2014Magellan Strategies
1) A survey of likely 2014 Minnesota voters finds Senator Al Franken potentially vulnerable in the November election. He has not faced voters in a midterm election before and won his previous election by a narrow margin.
2) The survey shows the Republican candidate leading the Democrat candidate by 3 points in a generic Senate ballot test. Additionally, Al Franken's approval ratings are below 50%.
3) Key findings indicate the political environment may be better for Republicans, as voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapprove of President Obama's job performance.
This document summarizes polling data and makes predictions for the 2012 US presidential election. It finds that the top pollsters in 2008 accurately predicted the popular vote. The document then analyzes key swing states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Based on demographic and polling trends in these states, it predicts that Obama will win re-election with 294 electoral votes to Romney's 244.
CNN directly covers the 2012 election with sections dedicated to it, while also indirectly covering it through stories on Obama and potential Republican candidates. Real Clear Politics and Politico focus heavily on potential Republican candidates and criticisms of Obama, with Real Clear Politics accused of right-leaning coverage. Salon.com is openly critical of other news sources and covers the Tea Party more than others. All sites utilize polls and focus on fundraising and policy issues relating to potential candidates.
The Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College conducted a poll of 403 New Hampshire registered voters between April 2-5, 2012 regarding political issues, the economy, and social policies. Key findings included:
- Voters were less pessimistic about the national and state economies than in 2011.
- In a hypothetical presidential matchup, Mitt Romney led Barack Obama by a slim margin of 43.9% to 42.4%.
- "Building a strong economy" was viewed as the most important issue for the state government.
- Voters were split on expanded gambling and college student voting eligibility. They supported same-sex marriage and cell phone bans while driving but opposed guns on college campuses and employer contraceptive coverage refus
This paper explores whether racial prejudice affected the results of the 2016 Republican primary elections. The author uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between the percentage of votes Donald Trump received in each state and various measures of racism, including hate crime rates, numbers of hate groups, and racially charged Google searches. The analysis found that Trump performed better in states with higher levels of hate crimes and more hate groups per capita. This suggests that racial prejudice may have contributed to Trump's success in the 2016 Republican primaries.
The document discusses various topics related to the dynamics of voting, including 2012 exit polls, how the makeup of the electorate varies in different elections, ballot initiatives and electoral timing, and theories of surge and decline in voter turnout. It also examines how voters decide, changing voter distributions between presidential and midterm elections, and evidence that the timing of an election can systematically affect the results of ballot initiative campaigns.
Predicting Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Electionjemccull
Predicting Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election: Assessing the Impact of Battleground Status and Early Voting Opportunities. Author: Jenna McCulloch. Faculty Mentor: Dr. Kiki Caruson.
Critics of the new legislative maps unveiled by Indiana House Republicans say they "have have historically extreme levels of partisan bias.” Women4Change Indiana engaged national gerrymandering expert Dr. Christopher Warshaw to analyze the new maps for US Congressional districts and the districts for Indiana House of Representatives presented by the Indiana House Elections Committee on Tuesday.
Magellan Strategies Minnesota US Senate General Election Survey April 2014Magellan Strategies
1) A survey of likely 2014 Minnesota voters finds Senator Al Franken potentially vulnerable in the November election. He has not faced voters in a midterm election before and won his previous election by a narrow margin.
2) The survey shows the Republican candidate leading the Democrat candidate by 3 points in a generic Senate ballot test. Additionally, Al Franken's approval ratings are below 50%.
3) Key findings indicate the political environment may be better for Republicans, as voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction and disapprove of President Obama's job performance.
This document summarizes polling data and makes predictions for the 2012 US presidential election. It finds that the top pollsters in 2008 accurately predicted the popular vote. The document then analyzes key swing states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Based on demographic and polling trends in these states, it predicts that Obama will win re-election with 294 electoral votes to Romney's 244.
CNN directly covers the 2012 election with sections dedicated to it, while also indirectly covering it through stories on Obama and potential Republican candidates. Real Clear Politics and Politico focus heavily on potential Republican candidates and criticisms of Obama, with Real Clear Politics accused of right-leaning coverage. Salon.com is openly critical of other news sources and covers the Tea Party more than others. All sites utilize polls and focus on fundraising and policy issues relating to potential candidates.
The Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College conducted a poll of 403 New Hampshire registered voters between April 2-5, 2012 regarding political issues, the economy, and social policies. Key findings included:
- Voters were less pessimistic about the national and state economies than in 2011.
- In a hypothetical presidential matchup, Mitt Romney led Barack Obama by a slim margin of 43.9% to 42.4%.
- "Building a strong economy" was viewed as the most important issue for the state government.
- Voters were split on expanded gambling and college student voting eligibility. They supported same-sex marriage and cell phone bans while driving but opposed guns on college campuses and employer contraceptive coverage refus
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
This document discusses ways that pollsters could improve their election predictions in the future based on failures in the 2016 US presidential election. It identifies several issues with polls in 2016, including relying on small sample sizes, outdated polling methods, and neglecting online data sources. It then provides eight fixes for pollsters, such as applying robust statistical models, incorporating modern technology and online data, accurately assessing the impact of scandals, and utilizing digital advertising data from Facebook. The overall message is that pollsters need to embrace new data sources and statistical methods to make more accurate predictions.
Comments by Klenio Barbosa on paper "The Political Economy of Corruption in the Bureaucracy" presented by Michele Valsecchi at the SITE Corruption Conference, 31 August 2015.
Find more at: https://www.hhs.se/site
- The document discusses previous studies that have found a positive correlation between weekend voting and increased voter turnout, with estimates of a 5-6% increase.
- However, the author notes some limitations in previous studies, such as limited country samples, assumptions made but not tested, and a lack of analysis on why weekend voting may impact turnout.
- The author proposes to conduct a more comprehensive analysis using data from 288 elections in 96 countries from 2000-2012. The analysis will examine the impact of weekend voting on turnout as well as explore factors like a country's economy, unemployment, and demographics that may influence the effect of weekend voting.
This document summarizes a student paper analyzing the relationship between weekend voting and voter turnout. The paper reviews previous studies that found a positive correlation, but notes limitations in their scope and methods. The student aims to conduct a more comprehensive analysis using data from 288 elections in 96 countries between 2000-2012. Models will examine the direct impact of weekend voting on turnout as well as differences across country groups and indicator interactions. The student hypothesizes that weekend voting increases turnout by lowering the cost of voting compared to weekdays, and expects stronger effects in wealthier, more developed democracies.
This document analyzes data from 27 election studies across 5 countries to estimate the percentage of voters who change their minds in the month before an election. It finds that on average, about 16% of voters change their preferred party between initial interviews conducted a month before the election and post-election surveys. However, rates vary significantly between countries, from about 4% of voters in the US to 30% in New Zealand. Voters are also more likely to change their minds earlier in the campaign period compared to the final weeks.
Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future Election 2010 Pollourfuture
A Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future poll highlights the messages voters sought to convey on Tuesday. It not only shows that voter fears about the economy drove this election, but it also shows that conservatives do not have a mandate from voters for their proposals for deep cuts in spending combined with tax cuts for the rich. There is deep anger at the failure of government to make it work for middle class families, even as Wall Street got bailed out.
The document provides details about an individual seeking employment in the automotive sector. It summarizes their academic qualifications including graduating from SNS College of Engineering in Coimbatore with a percentage of 6.5. Areas of interest include the production, quality, training and R&D sectors within automobile manufacturing. The individual has experience in plant training at automobile service centers and has received several awards for technical projects, including first place for engine assembly and contraption. Their objective is to work in automotive with creative problem solving and career development support.
Este documento trata sobre el papel del docente en entornos educativos en línea. Explica que los docentes deben generar espacios de comunicación, promover tareas y comunidades de aprendizaje en línea. También deben tener herramientas adecuadas, estimular hábitos de aprendizaje, ofrecer motivación y crear una presencia digital para apoyar a los estudiantes. El docente actúa como catalizador de los procesos educativos en línea y facilita el acceso a recursos tecnológicos que
Syed Moin Sharief is applying for a position as a Mechanical Engineer. He has 2 years of experience in mechanical engineering and facility management. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering and a diploma in HVAC. His skills include analytical problem solving, planning and improving operations, and ensuring safe work environments. His previous roles include working as a Mechanical Engineer on construction and maintenance projects.
The document provides a programming schedule for a virtual radio station called La Voz de Genova from Monday to Sunday. The schedule lists the time slots and corresponding music genres played each day. On weekdays, the station plays genres like ballads, pop Latino, salsa, merengue, vallenatos, reggaeton, and rock en español. Saturdays feature ballads, vallenatos, crossover mixes and salsa. Sundays include Colombian music, ballads, popular genres, and a rock music block in the evenings.
Birthday Bless is a kids birthday party organizer located in three areas: 3-Mayur Vihar - Phase I, Noida, and M-23 Lajpat Nagar. The document provides contact information including a phone number, email, and website for Birthday Bless, which organizes children's birthday parties in these three locations in New Delhi, India.
Las vacunas son medicamentos biológicos que generan defensas para proteger contra enfermedades infecciosas, previniendo epidemias, muertes y secuelas. Aunque los niños reciben la mayoría de vacunas, los adultos también necesitan protección contra enfermedades como el tétanos, la difteria y la gripe. El esquema de vacunación para adultos incluye dosis regulares de vacunas contra la difteria, el tétanos, la influenza y neumococo, así como vacunas únicas contra hepatitis, fiebre tifo
This document provides information about the 5th WSEAS International Conference on Mathematical Biology and Ecology that was held from January 10-12, 2009 in Ningbo, China. It lists the international advisory committee members and provides details about the conference topics, location, host universities and information about the city of Ningbo, China. It also includes the table of contents for the conference proceedings, which includes papers on various topics related to mathematical biology and ecology.
The document outlines steps to improve customer service including listening to customers, addressing their needs, apologizing for mistakes, thanking customers for their business, and ensuring employees have the tools and training to provide excellent service.
Sustitución de importaciones, 1º etapa (1932-1952)OcampoKaren
La crisis de 1929 provocó cambios en la economía argentina que la llevaron a volcarse parcialmente al mercado interno. Esto dio inicio al proceso de sustitución de importaciones entre 1930-1952. La oligarquía terrateniente se adaptó a la nueva organización y mantuvo el poder político. El Estado intervino en la economía para regular sectores e impulsar la industria nacional, aunque su política benefició principalmente a Gran Bretaña e Inglaterra. Entre 1943-1952, el peronismo promovió la redistrib
Aportes de Sócrates, Platón y Aristóteles a la ComunicaciónPatricia Alejos
El documento resume las contribuciones de Sócrates, Platón y Aristóteles a la comunicación. Sócrates utilizó la ironía y la mayéutica para hacer que la verdad salga a través del diálogo. Platón consideró que el lenguaje era imperfecto pero usó el diálogo platónico en sus escritos. Aristóteles dejó claro que la meta de la comunicación es la persuasión y propuso uno de los primeros modelos de comunicación que incluye el emisor, mensaje y receptor.
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
This document discusses ways that pollsters could improve their election predictions in the future based on failures in the 2016 US presidential election. It identifies several issues with polls in 2016, including relying on small sample sizes, outdated polling methods, and neglecting online data sources. It then provides eight fixes for pollsters, such as applying robust statistical models, incorporating modern technology and online data, accurately assessing the impact of scandals, and utilizing digital advertising data from Facebook. The overall message is that pollsters need to embrace new data sources and statistical methods to make more accurate predictions.
Comments by Klenio Barbosa on paper "The Political Economy of Corruption in the Bureaucracy" presented by Michele Valsecchi at the SITE Corruption Conference, 31 August 2015.
Find more at: https://www.hhs.se/site
- The document discusses previous studies that have found a positive correlation between weekend voting and increased voter turnout, with estimates of a 5-6% increase.
- However, the author notes some limitations in previous studies, such as limited country samples, assumptions made but not tested, and a lack of analysis on why weekend voting may impact turnout.
- The author proposes to conduct a more comprehensive analysis using data from 288 elections in 96 countries from 2000-2012. The analysis will examine the impact of weekend voting on turnout as well as explore factors like a country's economy, unemployment, and demographics that may influence the effect of weekend voting.
This document summarizes a student paper analyzing the relationship between weekend voting and voter turnout. The paper reviews previous studies that found a positive correlation, but notes limitations in their scope and methods. The student aims to conduct a more comprehensive analysis using data from 288 elections in 96 countries between 2000-2012. Models will examine the direct impact of weekend voting on turnout as well as differences across country groups and indicator interactions. The student hypothesizes that weekend voting increases turnout by lowering the cost of voting compared to weekdays, and expects stronger effects in wealthier, more developed democracies.
This document analyzes data from 27 election studies across 5 countries to estimate the percentage of voters who change their minds in the month before an election. It finds that on average, about 16% of voters change their preferred party between initial interviews conducted a month before the election and post-election surveys. However, rates vary significantly between countries, from about 4% of voters in the US to 30% in New Zealand. Voters are also more likely to change their minds earlier in the campaign period compared to the final weeks.
Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future Election 2010 Pollourfuture
A Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future poll highlights the messages voters sought to convey on Tuesday. It not only shows that voter fears about the economy drove this election, but it also shows that conservatives do not have a mandate from voters for their proposals for deep cuts in spending combined with tax cuts for the rich. There is deep anger at the failure of government to make it work for middle class families, even as Wall Street got bailed out.
The document provides details about an individual seeking employment in the automotive sector. It summarizes their academic qualifications including graduating from SNS College of Engineering in Coimbatore with a percentage of 6.5. Areas of interest include the production, quality, training and R&D sectors within automobile manufacturing. The individual has experience in plant training at automobile service centers and has received several awards for technical projects, including first place for engine assembly and contraption. Their objective is to work in automotive with creative problem solving and career development support.
Este documento trata sobre el papel del docente en entornos educativos en línea. Explica que los docentes deben generar espacios de comunicación, promover tareas y comunidades de aprendizaje en línea. También deben tener herramientas adecuadas, estimular hábitos de aprendizaje, ofrecer motivación y crear una presencia digital para apoyar a los estudiantes. El docente actúa como catalizador de los procesos educativos en línea y facilita el acceso a recursos tecnológicos que
Syed Moin Sharief is applying for a position as a Mechanical Engineer. He has 2 years of experience in mechanical engineering and facility management. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering and a diploma in HVAC. His skills include analytical problem solving, planning and improving operations, and ensuring safe work environments. His previous roles include working as a Mechanical Engineer on construction and maintenance projects.
The document provides a programming schedule for a virtual radio station called La Voz de Genova from Monday to Sunday. The schedule lists the time slots and corresponding music genres played each day. On weekdays, the station plays genres like ballads, pop Latino, salsa, merengue, vallenatos, reggaeton, and rock en español. Saturdays feature ballads, vallenatos, crossover mixes and salsa. Sundays include Colombian music, ballads, popular genres, and a rock music block in the evenings.
Birthday Bless is a kids birthday party organizer located in three areas: 3-Mayur Vihar - Phase I, Noida, and M-23 Lajpat Nagar. The document provides contact information including a phone number, email, and website for Birthday Bless, which organizes children's birthday parties in these three locations in New Delhi, India.
Las vacunas son medicamentos biológicos que generan defensas para proteger contra enfermedades infecciosas, previniendo epidemias, muertes y secuelas. Aunque los niños reciben la mayoría de vacunas, los adultos también necesitan protección contra enfermedades como el tétanos, la difteria y la gripe. El esquema de vacunación para adultos incluye dosis regulares de vacunas contra la difteria, el tétanos, la influenza y neumococo, así como vacunas únicas contra hepatitis, fiebre tifo
This document provides information about the 5th WSEAS International Conference on Mathematical Biology and Ecology that was held from January 10-12, 2009 in Ningbo, China. It lists the international advisory committee members and provides details about the conference topics, location, host universities and information about the city of Ningbo, China. It also includes the table of contents for the conference proceedings, which includes papers on various topics related to mathematical biology and ecology.
The document outlines steps to improve customer service including listening to customers, addressing their needs, apologizing for mistakes, thanking customers for their business, and ensuring employees have the tools and training to provide excellent service.
Sustitución de importaciones, 1º etapa (1932-1952)OcampoKaren
La crisis de 1929 provocó cambios en la economía argentina que la llevaron a volcarse parcialmente al mercado interno. Esto dio inicio al proceso de sustitución de importaciones entre 1930-1952. La oligarquía terrateniente se adaptó a la nueva organización y mantuvo el poder político. El Estado intervino en la economía para regular sectores e impulsar la industria nacional, aunque su política benefició principalmente a Gran Bretaña e Inglaterra. Entre 1943-1952, el peronismo promovió la redistrib
Aportes de Sócrates, Platón y Aristóteles a la ComunicaciónPatricia Alejos
El documento resume las contribuciones de Sócrates, Platón y Aristóteles a la comunicación. Sócrates utilizó la ironía y la mayéutica para hacer que la verdad salga a través del diálogo. Platón consideró que el lenguaje era imperfecto pero usó el diálogo platónico en sus escritos. Aristóteles dejó claro que la meta de la comunicación es la persuasión y propuso uno de los primeros modelos de comunicación que incluye el emisor, mensaje y receptor.
This document presents a linear regression analysis performed in R. It defines dependent and independent variables for a linear regression model using data from a CSV file. It generates an ANOVA table, correlation plots, scatter plots with and without regression lines, normal probability plots of residuals, a residuals histogram, and calculates errors. It also produces confidence and prediction intervals for predicted mean responses at new x-values.
Analysis of us presidential elections, 2016Tapan Saxena
Purpose of this project is to analyze the 2016, US Presidential Primary election data to
predict who would be the final nominee from both the democratic and republican party
and draw many other insights as well.
Who should be nominated to run in the 2012 U.S. presidential election?agraefe
The bio-index model predicts the outcome of US presidential elections based on biographical information about candidates. It correctly predicted the winner of 27 out of 29 past elections. Applying the model to potential 2012 candidates, it predicts that only Texas Governor Rick Perry would defeat President Obama based on his biography. However, the model has limitations as it does not consider all biographical variables or issues performance.
Who should be nominated to run in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election?agraefe
This document discusses index models for forecasting elections. It describes how index models summarize prior knowledge about a domain using variables to predict outcomes. It then presents a bio-index model that uses 59 biographical variables to predict US presidential election winners from 1896-2008 with 93% accuracy. The model is then used to forecast the 2012 election, predicting that only Rick Perry would defeat Obama based on candidates' biographical index scores.
This document discusses a study analyzing the impact of all vote-by-mail elections on voter turnout in Utah. The study found that counties conducting all vote-by-mail federal elections had 4.6% higher registered voter turnout than counties with traditional polling places and absentee voting. However, the author notes that novelty effects may be impacting turnout in counties recently adopting the all vote-by-mail system. The document examines vote-by-mail policies and their mixed effects on turnout in other states like Oregon, Washington, and Colorado.
Magellan Strategies 2012 Internal Survey Research Summary Memorandum 120612Magellan Strategies
This memorandum is a full review of Magellan Strategies surveys from the 2012 election cycle. The memorandum goes into detail about the challenges of survey research for the cycle, and how well Magellan Strategies research held up to the final outcome.
The document discusses the sociological model of voting and how it relates to the 2012 election. It analyzes factors like social class, religion, ethnicity, and gender that influence how people vote based on their political socialization. It argues the sociological model is the primary model taking role in this election as people vote based on how policies will affect them personally. It also discusses the economic model and factors like GDP growth, inflation, and gas prices that voters consider when deciding how the president has handled the economy.
Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Methods: Analysis of Voting and Elect...Toni Menninger
This document discusses descriptive and inferential statistical methods for analyzing voting and elections. It provides graphs and charts showing descriptive statistics on voter turnout rates by income, age, and gender using data from 2008-2012. It also discusses inferential concepts like how election polls can be viewed as binomial experiments and the factors that influence poll accuracy such as sample size. More sophisticated election forecasting models aggregate data from multiple polls to estimate probabilities of different election outcomes.
A 2016 Election Post-Mortem: The ABC News/Washington Post Tracking PollLangerResearch
This document summarizes the findings of a post-mortem analysis of the 2016 ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll conducted after Donald Trump's unexpected election victory. The analysis found the final poll estimate of Hillary Clinton leading by 4 points was accurate based on the poll's historical average error of 2 points. While some state polls underestimated Trump support, the national poll found no evidence of "shy" Trump voters or other issues. Overall, the national popular vote estimate was sound despite missing Trump's electoral college victory.
The Making of an Engaged Electorate? (view full screen)Rhesa Jenkins
This document analyzes data from the 2008 US election to understand patterns in campaign donations, voter demographics, and key issues. It finds that while large donors still provided most funds, Obama attracted more small donors than other candidates. Obama also received more support from lower-income voters. The top issues for Obama voters were the economy, healthcare, and energy policy. The document suggests voter turnout may depend on whether political priorities address the key concerns that motivated groups like Obama supporters in 2008.
Part 1 Individual Factors Affecting Voter Turnout Based on .docxdanhaley45372
Part 1: Individual Factors Affecting Voter Turnout
Based on our class discussion of voter turnout, you are going to examine individual factors
affecting turnout and how they have changed over the past 50 years. To do so, you will be using
historical data provided by the United States Census Bureau. This data is located here:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html
You will need to download the Excel spreadsheet files (XLS or CSV) for Table A-1 and Table
A-2.
Contained in Table A-1 are rates of self-reported voter turnout in elections from 1964 to 2014 by
age. You will analyze the percent of the total population that voted for age groups 18-24, 25-44,
45-64, and 65 years and over.
Contained in Table A-2 are rates of self-reported voter turnout in elections from 1964 to 2014 by
educational attainment. You will analyze the percent of the total population that voted for
educational attainment levels less than 9th grade, 9th to 12th grade, no diploma, high school
graduate or GED, some college or associate’s degree, and bachelor’s degree or more.
You should cut and paste each of these columns into a new spreadsheet for the elections from
1964 to 2014. Once this is done, sort the data by ascending year. Finally, you should only keep
presidential elections (1964, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008,
2012).
Using a spreadsheet program, create two different line graphs showing how voter turnout rates
have changed over time by age and level of educational attainment respectively. The x-axis
should be the years from 1964 through 2012 (presidential elections only) and the y-axis should
be percent that voted. In the respective line graph, a separate line should be drawn for the each
category age (18-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65 years and over) and educational attainment (less than
9th grade, 9th to 12th grade, no diploma, high school graduate or GED, some college or associate’s
degree, and bachelor’s degree or more).
Cut and paste each of the line graphs into your homework document labeled 1a and 1b. For each
line graph, describe in a few sentences the 48-year trend in voter turnout.
1c. In a few sentences, explain why we would expect to see differences in turnout among
different categories of age and level of education.
Part 2: Institutional Factors Affecting Voter Turnout
In this section you will be studying the relationship between institutional factors and voter
turnout. Specifically, you will test the effect of rules governing requests for absentee ballots on
turnout.
You will use data collected by Cemenska et al. (2009). The study describing the data and a
subset of the data based on the 2008 election are posted on Classes in the folder
“Resources/Research Assignment.” The data file you will work with is called
Pew_Early_Vote.xls.
Over the past several decades, states have changed several electoral laws regarding .
This document provides an outline of key concepts related to US presidential elections, including primaries, caucuses, and campaign financing. It discusses the multi-stage process of electing the president from pre-primaries over a year before elections to the electoral college vote and inauguration. Notably, it outlines how the pre-primary period has increased in importance, with front-runners often being determined over a year before the actual primaries begin.
This document provides an overview and analysis of a poll conducted in June 2008 on voter opinions and attitudes regarding the 2008 US presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain. Some key findings from the poll include: Obama has a slight lead over McCain nationally; support for Obama is driven by a desire for change from President Bush, while McCain's support comes from his experience in foreign policy; the economy is the top issue but voters see the candidates as tied on handling it.
The Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College conducted a poll of 433 registered New Hampshire voters on politics, economics, and social issues. Key findings include:
- Over three-quarters of voters support universal background checks for firearm sales.
- Views of the state and national economy have improved since last year.
- Senator Ayotte's unfavorable rating increased by 7% after her vote against expanded background checks.
- In hypothetical 2014 Senate matchups, Senator Shaheen leads potential challengers Jeb Bradley and Scott Brown. In 2016 presidential matchups, Hillary Clinton leads Chris Christie and Marco Rubio.
This summary provides the key details from the document in 3 sentences:
The document examines the relationship between race, education, and voting using data from the 2012 General Social Survey. Crosstab analyses found that whites were more likely to vote than blacks or others, and those with a bachelor's degree or higher were more likely to vote than those with less education, supporting the two hypotheses. The analyses revealed a statistically significant correlation between both race and education level with likelihood of voting.
1) The document examines whether major events during presidential campaigns, such as nominations and debates, correlate with stock market movements in a way that could predict election outcomes.
2) Previous research has found negative stock market impacts from delays in declaring election winners, as in 2000, and that prediction markets like an 1988 Iowa stock market outperformed polls in forecasting results.
3) Other work has analyzed long-term stock performance under Democratic and Republican presidents and the impacts of election uncertainty on markets.
Three predictors correctly predicted the electoral vote breakdown: Nate Silver of the New York Times, who predicted 332-206; Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos; and Drew Linzer, a political science professor. They receive the title of "Best Ever". Jamelle Bouie of The American Prospect came closest to correctly predicting the popular vote of 50.4% to 48.2% although he incorrectly predicted Florida going to Obama. The predictors who got the electoral vote correct are highlighted on their websites.
1 Quant Tools for Bus & Econ – ECON 220-02 (11273) .docxhoney725342
This document contains an economics homework assignment involving calculations of rates of change, derivatives, and demand equations. It also discusses using regression analysis to examine the relationship between economic variables like interest rates and unemployment, and the percentage of votes received by incumbent presidents. The homework involves computing averages, estimating derivatives with numerical methods, finding equations of tangent lines, and using ordinary least squares regression on transformed logarithmic variables.
Giving You the Edge - The Science of Winning Elections Michael Lieberman
Giving You the Edge – The Science of Winning Elections, written by experienced political consultant Michael Lieberman, identifies and explains the use of key research methodology and multivariate analysis in supporting political campaign goals through the various stages of an election.
This document contains the results of a Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted shortly after the 2012 presidential election. It shows that:
1) The top issues for voters were the economy, direction of the country, and President Obama's job performance.
2) For senior voters, the top issues were the economy, direction of the country, and the future of Medicare.
3) After the election, a plurality of voters wanted to keep the Affordable Care Act as is or expand it, rather than repeal it.
4) A majority saw President Obama's policies as good for lower income Americans but bad for the wealthy in his second term.
Modeling Social Data, Lecture 2: Introduction to Countingjakehofman
The document is a lecture on counting and modeling social data given by Jake Hofman at Columbia University on January 27, 2017. It discusses why counting large datasets is important for social science questions but computationally challenging at large scales. It also covers counting at small to medium scales by loading a dataset into memory and splitting it into groups to compute statistics within each group.
Modeling Social Data, Lecture 2: Introduction to Counting
Complete Study
1. American Voter Study - by Oojwal Manglik
15/04/2015
Introduction:
The Presidential Elections in the United States are interesting not just for Americans but
also for the rest of the world, owing to the status of USA as a major player in global events.
Since these are characterized by high marketing spends by candidates and scrutiny by the
general public, it is interesting to observe how the American voters perception of the
presidential candidate changes during a President's term in office.
For this study I would like to analyse the proportion of an American voter who has a
similar voting pattern between two consecutive US presidential elections
Data:
About the data set
I have taken the American National Electoral Survey data taken in 2012. The extract used of
the American National Elections Study (ANES) provides a sample of selected indicators in
the 2012. Complete citation of the data used is available in the citation section.
Data collection methodology
Data for the study was collected over a 5 month period (September 2012-January 2013)
through face to face and internet based interviews. For the pre-election data, interviews
were conducted from 2 months prior to the election day and for post election data,
interviews were conducted for another 2 months post election result being declared.
Cases
Each case in the study represents a survey respondent who has reported his voting pattern
in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
Nature of Study
During the collection of the data set, surveyors were only collecting data based on
observations made by them and took no measures were taken by the surveyor to introduce
any bias or influence that would alter the response of the voter. Also data was collected
multiple times during the study. Hence, the proposed project will hence be a prospective
observational study.
Scope of inference - Generalizability
This study takes data only for 2008 and 2012 elections and cannot be generalized for all US
Presidential elections. A similar analysis conducted for multiple pairs of elections can give
greater insight on how the proportion changes between different pairs of elections.
2. Scope of inference - Bias
The current study may not be generalizable to the complete population of the United States
of America mainly because the survey has a majority of African American and Hispanic
respondents, a demographic mix which is not representative of the complete population.
Scope of inference - Causality
For the current study, there may be some confounding variables which can make it look as
if there is causal relationship between voting patterns of a respondent during multiple
elections. For ex. a voter may simply vote for Barack Obama because the voter is a lifelong
democrat. Such confounding variables may be difficult to exhaustively identify. As a result
causality cannot be established with absolute certainty.
Variables
The data fields used for this study are as follows:
1. interest_voted2008: Did R vote for President in 2008 The first variable used in the
study is the vote cast by respondent in 2008 election. This is a non ordinal categorical
variable with 3 levels - "Barack Obama", "John McCain" and Others. Additionally 1394
values are recorded as NA (23.5% of all values) for various reasons.
#first few records of whovote2008
head(anes$interest_whovote2008)
## [1] Barack Obama Barack Obama Barack Obama <NA> Barack Obama
## [6] <NA>
## Levels: Barack Obama John Mccain Other {Specify}
#Summary of interest_whovote2008 field
VotePat2008<-anes$interest_whovote2008
VotePat2008Sumry<-summary(VotePat2008)
VotePat2008Sumry
## Barack Obama John Mccain Other {Specify} NA's
## 2704 1702 114 1394
2. presvote2012_x: SUMMARY: For whom did R vote for President in 2012 The second
variable used in this study is the vote cast by the President in 2012.This is a non
ordinal categorical variable with 3 levels - "Barack Obama", "Mitt Romney" and Others.
Additionally 1394 values are recorded as NA (27.1% of all values) for various reasons.
#first few records of presvote2012_x field
head(anes$presvote2012_x)
## [1] <NA> Barack Obama Barack Obama Barack Obama Barack Obama
## [6] <NA>
## Levels: Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other
#Summary of interest_presvote2012_x field
VotePat2012<-anes$presvote2012_x
3. VotePat2012Sumry<-summary(VotePat2012)
VotePat2012Sumry
## Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other NA's
## 2496 1692 118 1608
Note: The Republican candidates for 2008 and 2012 were not the same (John McCain in
2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012). For this study, it is assumed the two values to be same.
Such a response represents a class of voters who do not change their voting preference (to
become pro-president) between elections as a result of the President's work during his
term.
3. sample_state: SAMPLE- State of Respondent address (used for exploratory analysis)
The third variable used in this study is the state from which the respondent comes.This is a
non ordinal categorical variable with 51 levels, each level being a state from the USA.
#first few records of sample_state field
head(anes$sample_state)
## [1] AL AL AL AL AL AL
## 51 Levels: AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA ... WY
The total data set has responses from 5914 American voters. Responses which have value
of NA recorded in any of the fields of interest have been ignored for the exploratory and
statistical analysis in this study.
Exploratory data analysis:
The following bar plot depicts the number of respondents in the study who voted for the
differnt Presidential Candidates in 2008. Visually it depicts that most respondents (2704 to
be precise) voted for Barack Obama. In terms of percentage, 59.82% of valid responses
were for Barack Obama, 37.65% were for John McCain and 2.52% were for Others. Here
valid responses are those responses which have not been categorized as NA for this
variable.
This response pattern is inline with the outcome of the 2008 Presidential elections in
which Barack Obama had emerged as the winner. Of the 61.6% of eligible Americans that
had cast their vote, Barack Obama had secured 52.9% votes, John McCain had secured
45.7% votes and others had secured 1.4% votes (source of data is Wikipedia page -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008).
There is a significant observed variation between the observed sample proportions and the
actual reported proportions.
Note : All "NA" values have been omitted for each variable under consideration for the
purpose of this exploratory analysis.
#Bar plot distribution of interest_whovote2008 field
barplot(VotePat2008Sumry[1:3],main = "Voting Pattern of Respondents in
2008",xlab="Name of Candidates",ylab="Number of Respondents")
4. The following bar plot depicts the number of respondents in the study who voted for the
differnt Presidential Candidates in 2012. Visually it depicts that most respondents (2496 to
be precise) voted for Barack Obama. In terms of percentage, 57.97% of valid responses
were for Barack Obama, 39.29% were for Mitt Romney and 2.74% were for Others. Here
valid responses are those responses which have not been categorized as NA for this
variable.
This response pattern is inline with the outcome of the 2008 Presidential elections in
which Barack Obama had emerged as the winner. Of the 58.2% of eligible Americans that
had cast their vote, Barack Obama had secured 51.1% votes, Mitt Romney had secured
47.2% votes and others had secured 1.7% votes (source of data is Wikipedia page -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012).
It is also interesting to observe here that the difference between the voting patterns in
2008 and 2012 of respondents is +/- 2% which is significant but small.
There is a significant observed variation between the observed sample proportions and the
actual reported proportions.
#Bar plot distribution of presvote2012_x field
barplot(VotePat2012Sumry[1:3],main = "Voting Pattern of Respondents in
2012",xlab="Name of Candidates",ylab="Number of Respondents")
5. Now I move on to the comparison of the sample voting patterns of 2008 and 2012 by
looking at the below contingency table. The Y-Axis here depicts the sample voting patterns
for 2008 elections and sample voting patterns for 2012 elections. In this table, the diagnal
values represents respondents whose voting behaviour did not change in the 2008 and
2012 elections. Just by looking at the data I can see that a very high proportion of
respondents had similar voting preferences both in 2008 and 2012. This is indicative of the
fact that voting preferences do not change significantly amongst voters between elections.
#Contingency table to compare voting patterns between 2008 and 2012
ContingencyTabVote<-table(VotePat2008,VotePat2012)
ContingencyTabVote
## VotePat2012
## VotePat2008 Barack Obama Mitt Romney Other
## Barack Obama 2077 184 34
## John Mccain 95 1325 35
## Other {Specify} 22 32 37
The following bar plot depicts the state wise voting pattern of the respondents for 2008
elections. Visually it is evident that voting patterns vary from state to state. One limitation
to this inference is that the number of respondents available for each state is not the same
and for certain states the number of respondents is very less. However this inference is
inline with the traditional view about certain states in the US being affiliated to certain
political parties (democrat/republican).
#Compare statewise voting patterns in 2008
ContingencyTabPat2008<-table(VotePat2008,RespState)
6. barplot(ContingencyTabPat2008,legend=rownames(ContingencyTabPat2008),main =
"State Wise Voting Pattern of Respondents in 2008",xlab="States",ylab="Number
of Respondents")
The following bar plot depicts the state wise voting pattern of the respondents for 2012
elections. Visually this plot also depicts that voting patterns vary from state to state. There
is also a certain consistency in the voting patterns between this plot and the previous plot.
This could possibly be attributed to the fact that it is the same respondent who has been
sampled for getting responses of 2008 and 2012. However this inference is inline with the
traditional view about certain states in the US being affiliated to certain political parties
(democrat/republican).
#Compare statewise voting patterns in 2012
ContingencyTabPat2012<-table(VotePat2012,RespState)
barplot(ContingencyTabPat2012,legend=rownames(ContingencyTabPat2012),main =
"State Wise Voting Pattern of Respondents in 2012",xlab="States",ylab="Number
of Respondents")
7. Inference:
For the statistical analysis, my objective is to compare 2 paired categorical variables which
depict the voting behaviour of respondents in the 2008 and 2012 elections. Let us first
proceed with the 95% confidence interval analysis.
Confidence Interval
The statistical parameter of interest chosen for this purpose is the proportion. The
objective of this analysis is to find the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of voters
who have voted for either the president (voted Barack Obama in both elections) or not the
president (voted John McCain - 2008 and voted Mitt Romney - 2012, voted other in both
elections) in the two elections. In other word this is the proportion of voters whose voting
pattern has remained consistent in the two elections.
I begin this analysis by converting the available sample data from 2008 and 2012 to the
same levels for comparison. The levels chosen for our analyisis are President, Not President
and Other. Even though the category other also constitutes a vote not for Barack Obama, for
now I have classified them separately.
#Converting voter data into the same levels for 2008 and 2012
Vote2008<-revalue(VotePat2008, c("Barack Obama"="President","John
Mccain"="Not President","Other {Specify}"="Other"))
Vote2012<-revalue(VotePat2012, c("Barack Obama"="President","Mitt
Romney"="Not President"))
8. Now I consolidate the two vectors into a single vector that records the comparitive voting
pattern in 2008 and 2012. Here if the voting pattern in the two years is the same, a value of
1 is recorded. If the voting pattern in the two years is not the same, a value of 0 is recorded.
All responses with NA value are omitted from the final vector. Distribution of the final
comparison is depicted in the table output for VoteSamp below. This vector is now a binary
variable with output only as success/failure or 1/0, 1 meaning that the respondent voted
similarly in 2008 and 2012 and 0 meaning that the respondent did not vote similarly in
2008 and 2012.
#Initializing the vector to compare voting between 2008 and 2012
VoteSamp<-rep(NA,length(Vote2008))
#Populating the comparison vector VoteSamp
#If value from voter sample in 2008 or 2012 is NA then assign NA. I would
later remove these records
#If value from voter sample in 2008 or 2012 is equal (ex. Voter cast his vote
for Barack Obama in both elections) then assign 1
#If value from voter sample in 2008 or 2012 is not equal (ex. Voter cast his
vote for different candidates in two elections) then assign 0
for (i in 1:length(Vote2008)) {
if (is.na(Vote2008[i])|is.na(Vote2012[i])) {
VoteSamp[i]<-NA
} else if (Vote2008[i]!=Vote2012[i]) {
VoteSamp[i]<- 0
} else {
VoteSamp[i]<- 1
}
}
#Removing all samples for which response NA has been recorded
VoteSamp<-na.omit(VoteSamp)
#VoteSamp has now been converted into a binary distribution
table(VoteSamp)
## VoteSamp
## 0 1
## 402 3439
This table shows that 89.53% of the candidates voted similarly between 2008 and 2012.
This is the sample proportion (p-hat) of our study.
#Calculating sample proportions
SampProportionSame = table(VoteSamp)[2]/length(VoteSamp)
SampProportionNotSame = table(VoteSamp)[1]/length(VoteSamp)
SampProportionSame
## 1
## 0.8953398
9. Next I construct the sampling distribution of sample proportions based on the available
VoteSamp vector. But before I do that, I calculate the number of samples needed for 1%
margin of error. For calculating the margin of error, I have assumed worst case scenario for
the proportion of success and failure as 50% each. This is mainly because no reference
proportions from any reliable past study is available currently. Based on this, the number
of samples requied is 9604
#Calculating the number of sample required for 1% margin of error for a 95%
confidence interval assuming equal probability of success & failure
zvalue<-qnorm(0.975)
n=(zvalue^2)*(0.5)*(0.5)/(0.01^2)
n
## [1] 9603.647
Now I create the sampling distribution. Number of samples in the sampling distribution is
taken as 500 with each sample consisting of 9604 samples. Sampling is done with
replacement to ensure independence of each sample. Summary and histogram of the
sampling distribution constructed is given below.
#Creating the sampling distribution
SamplingDistribution_Proportion<-rep(NA,500)
for (i in 1:length(SamplingDistribution_Proportion)) {
Samp<-sample(VoteSamp,n,replace=TRUE)
SamplingDistribution_Proportion[i] = table(Samp)[2]/length(Samp)
}
#Summary of sampling distribution
summary(SamplingDistribution_Proportion)
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0.8864 0.8931 0.8953 0.8952 0.8971 0.9042
#Histogram of sampling distribution
hist(SamplingDistribution_Proportion)
10. From the histogram of the sampling distribution, I can visually see that it is nearly normal
and centred around the sample proportion that I had calculated earlier. There is also very
less skew on the left or right. But before I apply the central limit theorem, let us evaluate
each required condition:
1. Independence - The available sample vector VoteSamp consists of 3841 respondents.
This is <10% of the American voter population. During constructing the sampling
distribution of proportion, I have sampled with replacement. This has ensured the
condition of independence is met for our sampling distribution.
2. Skewness - I have 3439 successes and 402 failures in our sample. That means I have at
least 10 successes and 10 failures in our sample and this satisfies the success-failure
requirement. With this I can conclude that the sampling distribution for proportion is
not skewed and is approximately normal as required by the central limit theorem. By
looking at the histogram visually also I can conclude that this condition is met.
It is evident that we have adequate number of samples available for our analysis.
Consequently we go ahead and use the pvalue method for our analysis (no need for t-
distribution here). Now that the conditions have been met, I calculate the mean of the
sampling distribution that has been created.
#Mean of sampling distribution
SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean<-mean(SamplingDistribution_Proportion)
I also calculate the standard error of the sampling distribution for a 95% confidence
interval. Please note I have taken the sample size 'n' such that this standard error is 1%.
11. #Standard error for 95% confidence interval using P Distribution
SE<-(zvalue)*(SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean^0.5)*((1-
SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean)^0.5)/(n^0.5)
SE
## [1] 0.006125668
Confidence interval is calculated as sampling distribution mean +/- standard error of the
sampling distribution
LowerConfidenceLimit <- SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean - SE
UpperConfidenceLimit <- SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean + SE
ConfidenceIntervalP <- c(LowerConfidenceLimit,UpperConfidenceLimit)
ConfidenceIntervalP
## [1] 0.8890837 0.9013351
Hypothesis Testing
Now I move on to the hypothesis testing. I want to check the possibility that population
proportion for the number of people who voted similarly in the 2008 and 2012 elections is
91%. For this I construct the following hypothesis:
Ho = PopulationProportion = 91%
Ha = PopulationProportion != 91%
For this hypothesis, we will be performing a two side test for the normal distribution. We
will reuse the sampling distribution already created earlier for proportion and it has
already been established that this distribution is nearly normal. First we calculate the z
value for the null value of 91%:
NullVal<-0.91
zvalue<-(SamplingDistribution_Proportion_Mean-NullVal)/SE
zvalue
## [1] -2.414526
Next I calculate the associated p value for this z score. Note that since this is a two tailed
test. Area of interest in this case is the area under the curve for which
zscore > abs(zvalue)
Below I calculate the pvalue for this area and I would be multiplying the obtained p value
by 2 for the two tailed test.
pval<-2*pnorm(zvalue)
pval
## [1] 0.01575569
12. Since the obtained p value is very small (1.5%), we can reject the null hypothesis that the
population proportion of Americans who voted similarly in the 2008 and 2012 US
Presidential elections is 91% or more.
The result of the hypothesis test is inline with the 95% confidence interval we have earlier
identified. Hence we can say that the two findings are consistent.
Conclusion:
Based on this analysis, I can conclude with 95% confident that 88.9% to 90.1% of all
Americans vote consistently between the first and second term of a presidential election
with 1% margin of error.
For the hypothesis testing, we can reject the null hypothesis that the population proportion
of Americans who voted similarly in the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections is 91%.
In the future, this methodology can be repeated for multiple pairs of US Presidential
elections to see if there is any statistical consistency in the findings over the years.
The main learning out of this excercise has been a practical insight into how statistical
techniques can be used to strengthen our ability to draw conclusions and inferences.
Citation:
Full details of this data set is available in the following links:
Information on the study http://www.electionstudies.org/
Study Codebook
https://d396qusza40orc.cloudfront.net/statistics%2Fproject%2Fanes1.html
Data Set Used http://bit.ly/dasi_anes_data
Additionally following wikipedia links have also been referenced for checking the actual
result of the presidential election in 2008 and 2012:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012