Gold prices in India hit record highs due to a weak rupee and positive Chinese outlook. The rupee declined further against the dollar, supporting higher gold futures prices in India. Crude oil prices rose to $107 on concerns about potential disruptions from unrest in Egypt and an approaching storm in the Gulf of Mexico, while fears of a tapering of US stimulus measures by the Fed also contributed to higher oil prices. Copper futures in India look bullish given the weakening of the rupee.

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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold prices at India’s Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX) hit record high on weak
rupee. Gold at both international and domestic markets rallied on positive Chinese
outlook and U.S job data. Indian rupee hit 62 levels as dollar index strengthens.
Stimulus measures by RBI and govt. has failed to with hold rupee movements. Further
loss in rupee may support India gold futures.
On Thursday, U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected last week to hit the lowest
level since October 2007 impacted gold futures.
In China, demand for gold bars and coins surged 157% compared with the same
quarter last year, while in India it jumped 116% to a record 122t. Taking jewellery
demand and bar and coin investment together, global consumer demand totalled
1,083t in the quarter, 53% higher than a year ago. On COMEX, gold was up $1.5 at
1362.2 per troy ounce in electronic trading at 07.39 p.m. Singapore time and is
expected to trade positive in later session. In the evening session, U.S housing starts
and non-farm productivity data may put pressure on yellow metal. We expect gold
futures to trade with bullish bias for the day.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to $107 levels, fuelled by concerns on
violence in Egypt fanning fears of disruption in crude oil traffic through the Suez canal
and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline.
Besides, with the US jobless claims data signalling a decline in the number of
applicants who filed for it has enhanced the fears pertaining to tapering. “It’s a tug of
war between geopolitical fears and fears of taper,”. “Traders also were watching Gulf
platform evacuations,” he said as a weather formation heading for the Gulf of Mexico
is deemed to have 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm. Meanwhile, hundreds
of pro-Mursi protestors who are loyal to the outsted regime attacked the governor’s
office in famous Giza. This should be read adjacent to reports of US withdrawing from
joint war exercises with Egypt to send a message to current Egyptian regime.US' Gulf
of Mexico is attributed to production of 23% of US crude oil, 6% of US natural gas and
is home to more than 45% of refining capacity. On India's MCX, crude oil for delivery
on August was seen trading up by 1.64% at Rs.6640/bl as of 10.10 AM IST.
Crude Oil futures
upbeat on Egypt
unrest, US
weather and
jobs.
Copper: Bull
jump on as
Rupee weakens.
The trend in copper futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) looks bullish for the day. Traders are advised to stay on buying side given that
Rupee has weakened significantly.
MCX Copper futures for August delivery was seen trading up by 1.83% at Rs. 460.15
per kilogram as of 2:15 PM IST on Friday. US housing starts data, and building permits
data scheduled for 06.00 PM IST today would impact the copper futures as per
analysts.
Meanwhile, media reports suggest that premiums for imported copper in China
remained close to an all-time at $185 per metric ton today when compared to $210 in
the previous week.
“We’ve heard of a few delays and disruptions to several major suppliers’ shipments to
China, which have reduced the availability of high-grade copper,”. Weekly outlook for
MCX copper futures looks bullish for near term.
MCX Gold hits
record high on
weak rupee, US
Gold on a dream
run.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Aug 21, 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.15M 5.08M
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M
11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes
Aug 22, 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 322K 320K
6:30pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.1 53.7
6:30pm HPI m/m 0.6% 0.7%
7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.5% 0.0%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 65B
Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
Aug 23, 12:45am Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
7:30pm New Home Sales 492K 497K
Day 2 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
Aug 23, Day 3 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
30090 29250 28400 30950 31800 32500
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
49000 45800 42800 52500 55200 57700
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed around 10% weekly
gain following a sharp spurt in
international prices and a weak rupee
against the dollar and found important
resistance around 31000. Now, if it
sustain above 31000 then this bullish
movement can lead it toward 31600.
On lower side if it showed some
correction then 30100 will act as
important support.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 31200 for the target of 31900-
32400 with stop loss of 30100.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed positive gains
globally and hike of 4% import duty by
govt. attributed rise in silver prices. On
daily charts it gave breakout of
trendline and channel pattern which
lead it towards 50% retracement. Now
if it sustain above 51500 then it may
test 61.8% retracement i.e. 54300. On
other hand major support is seen
around 48300.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 51500 for
targets of 54300, with stop loss of 48300.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6395 6155 5925 6730 6850 7000
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
459 448 434.50 467 480 492
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week broke channel
pattern on daily charts and also made
new all time high and close above
important resistance of 467. Now, if it
maintains above this then it may
further lead towards 480 which can
also be seen as important resistance
for it. On lower side, any correction
will find its near term support in the
range of 458-454.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
on dips for the targets of 7000 with stop
loss of 6400.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed bullish
movement and made new all time high
and also gave breakout of rough
inverse head and sholder pattern. Now
if it hold above 6750 then it may test
the psychological level of 7000. And on
contrary 6450 will act as important
support below this it may slip towards
6150.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
on dips, with stop loss of 450 for the
targets of 480.
PIVOT TABLE

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