- Gold prices extended recent gains to three-week highs, supported by a weak US dollar and geopolitical tensions, though jobless claims data capped gains. Brent crude fell as US airstrikes in Iraq were expected to stabilize oil supplies from the region. Copper prices declined after weaker-than-expected Chinese copper imports data. Technical views provided trading strategies for gold, silver, crude oil and copper futures contracts based on support and resistance levels.

1. 11 AUGUST – 14 AUGUST 2014
W E E K L Y
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Goldfuturesextendedrecentgainstothree-weekhighsonFriday,supportedbyweak
US dollarand escalatinggeopolitical tensionsinIraqandUkraine furtherboostedsafe-
haven demand. However, Thursday's upbeat jobless claims data in the U.S. capped
the precious metal's advance.
U.S. President Barack Obama on Thursday authorized air strikes in Iraq to put an end
to an onslaught by Islamic militants and begun military air-drops of humanitarian
suppliestobesieged religious minorities to prevent a potential act of genocide”. On
Thursday,Moscow bannedimportsof most food from the West in retaliation against
sanctions against it over Ukraine. Euro inched up slightly on Friday, after hitting
almost nine months low against the greenback. The euro quotes at $1.3387, up
0.20%. The US dollar index quotes at 81.50, down 0.12%.COMEX Gold December
delivery quotes at $1,317.70 a troy ounce, up $5.20. Silver September quotes at
$20.072 a troy ounce, up $0.082. Local Gold came off from the high as local currency
appreciated to near Rs 61.19 per dollar. MCX Gold August delivery quotes at Rs
28,780, up Rs 9 and Silver September quotes at Rs 43,871, up Rs 51 per 1 kg.
Brentcrude fell onspeculationthatU.S.airstrikesagainstmilitantsfromIslamic State
inIraq will stabilize suppliesfromOPEC’ssecond-largestproducer. Brentnarrowedits
premium over West Texas Intermediate for the first time in five days. U.S. planes
carried out a strike on artillery positions that were used by the militants to attack
Kurdish forces defending their regional capital Erbil. The Islamic fighters took full
control of the AinZalaand Batma oilfieldsinthe Kurdisharea.Inthe longer term, the
U.S. getting involved is probably bearish for oil because any support the Kurds get
increasesthe probabilitythattheyare able to retake the oil fields and territory from
the militants. Brent for September settlement slid 42 cents, or 0.4 percent, to
$105.02 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of
all futures traded was 18 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day at
3:03 p.m. Prices were up 0.2 percent this week. WTI for September delivery rose 31
centsto $97.65 a barrel onthe NewYorkMercantile Exchange involume that was 4.1
percent above the 100-day average. The grade is down 0.2 percent this week. The
U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $7.37 to Brent after closing at $8.10
yesterday.
Brent Crude Slips
as U.S. Strikes
Seen Protecting
Supply.
Copper Wings
Clipped After
Dismal Chinese
Imports Data.
The importsdata of Chinahasclippedthe wings of Copper. The prices of MCX Copper
declined by 0.30 percent to trade at Rs 430.4 per kg. The metal tested a high of Rs
432.8 per kg and a low of Rs 429.1 per kg. In International exchanges, Copper was
trading at $ 3.17 per pound, down 0.5 cents.
China trade surplus as per the official data released by General Administration of
Customs was released today. The total trade surplus stood at $ 47.3 billion in July,
tripling on a year on year basis. Export increased 14.5 per cent year on year to
$212.9bn, the General Administration of Customs announced, while imports
decreased 1.6 per cent to $165.6bn. The surplus far exceeded the median forecast of
$27.7 bn.
The report on the other hand has come hard on the Copper bulls. The Unwrought
copper and copper products imports totaled 340000 tons in July, declining for a third
month,China'scustomsagencysaidtoday.According to the data the monthly decline
in the Copper unwrought imports has been close to 3%, on a year on year basis the
declines in imports was 17.2%. The total imports of unwrought Copper in China last
year July was 410680 tonnes.
Gold Extends
Gains On Safe
Heaven Buying.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Aug 11 12:45pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
Aug 12 5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 95.3 95.0
7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 4.74M 4.64M
11:30pm Federal Budget Balance -98.2B 70.5B
Aug 13 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:35pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M
10:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.60/2.6
Aug 14 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 307K 289K
6:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.2% 0.1%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 82B
10:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.37/2.4
Aug 15 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 25.6
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 19.4B
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.2% 79.1%
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.2%
7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.7 81.3
7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.3%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28390 27600 27360 29050 29400 29900
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
43200 42500 41600 44310 45200 45900
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showedoverall strength as
breakoutof inverse headand shoulder
pattern, except last trading session
foundresistance of psychological level
of 29000 and showed correction on
lower side. Now, if it maintains above
29050 then next resistance seen
around 29500. On other hand some
correction may darg it towards the
support level of 28000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 29050 for the targets of 29500-
30000 with stop loss of 28450.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts last week
showed sideways to bearish
movementandcontinuouslyfoundthe
resistance of upperband of downward
channel pattern. Now, if it maintains
above 23.6% retracement i.e. 44800
then next resistance is seen around
45850. On the other hand if it sustain
below 43250 thennextsupportlevelis
around 42500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 43200 for
the targets of 42500-42000, with stop
loss of 44800.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5930 5795 5640 6100 6200 6300
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
424.85 420 413.80 435.10 440 445
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copperlastweek showedbearish
movement and unable to close above
itsimportantresistance level of 38.2%
retracement i.e. 440. Now, if it
maintains above 434 then immidiate
resistance is seen in the range of 440-
445. On otherhand if itsustainsbelow
429 then it may drag towards strong
support around 424.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 5930 for the target of 5800, with
stop loss of 6110.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement and trading near
to its important support of 5935 on
weekly chart. Now, If the downward
movement continues and sustain
below 5930 then it may find strong
support in the range of 5800-5750. On
higher side some correction may lead
it towardsthe resistance level of 6150.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 428, with stop loss of 441 for the
target of 420.
PIVOT TABLE

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