The weekly report discusses the fluctuations in gold, silver, and crude oil prices, noting that gold is struggling to maintain levels above ₹27,000 per 10 grams amid a decline in global prices. Crude oil remains subdued after peaking at five-month highs, while copper prices are supported by robust demand from China despite a drop in overall imports. Traders are anticipating U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to impact market sentiments.

1. 11 MAY – 15 MAY 2015
W E E K L Y
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Blow by Blow
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Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold futures have failed to hold on above Rs 27000 per 10 grams mark as the
globalprices retreated after latest gains. The COMEX Gold futures dropped towards
$1180 perounce after a failed attempt to take out $1200 per ounce mark earlier in the
week assupportive US economic data capped the upside for gold. Gold slipped last
week following abreak under $1200 per ounce as lack of fresh investment demand
kept sentiments undercheck. The movement in today's session is likely to turn volatile
as traders eye theUS nonfarm payrolls data for April 2015.The metal is expected to
hold steady with upside likely to be capped as investors awaitfor the US nonfarm
payrolls data to be released later in the evening. COMEX Gold iscurrently quoting at
$1184.40 per ounce, up 0.20% on the day. MCX Gold futures are tradingat Rs 26900
per 10 grams, down 0.13% on the day as a mild uptick in Indian Rupee cappingthe
gains for the counter. INR is off its 20 month low and quotes slightly under the 64per
US dollar mark right now as local stocks soar. MCX Silver futures are trading at
Rs37840 per kg, down 0.07 % on the day. India's Gold imports soared in last fiscal. The
total value of gold imported inthe country jumped nearly 20% to $ 34.32 billion in
2014-15 according to latest officialdata.
Crude oil stayed subdued today after easing from its five month highs amid
profitselling as the US dollar recovered from its two month low against the Euro. Oil
tradersalso looked at the comfortable level of US crude inventories and closed out
theirpositions once the counter eased under $60 per barrel mark. WTI Crude oil
futures hithighs above $62 per barrel earlier this week, striking a fresh five months
high amidtensions in the Persian Gulf. Last week, a US Navy destroyer sailed to the
Strait ofHormuz after reports that Iranian gunboats had fired shots at a Marshall
Islands-flaggedcargo ship. The Ship was detained and oil traders are watching the
overall developmentsquite anxiously.The commodity eased thereafter though and
not much of a buying is expected to emergeahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data
today. Stocks are higher in Asia but oil has failedto see any buying. The WTI Crude oil
futures quote at $58.99 per barrel, up 0.14% on theday. MCX Crude oil is quoting at
Rs 3780 per barrel, down 0.26% on the day. WTI Crude oilfutures soared above their
100 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in last week and couldnow find a good
support emerging around the same level.
Oil Subdued After
Correcting From
Five Month Highs
China Refined
Copper Imports
Boost Sentiments
For Copper
Copper prices held firm on Friday on signs of robust demand from top consumer
China, while tin was boosted by expectations of tighter supplies due to export cuts
from Indonesia.Indian Copper June contract was trading at Rs 416 per kg, up 0.14%.
The prices tested a high of Rs 418.35 per kg and a low of Rs 415.3 per kg.China's
copper imports fell 4.4 percent year-on-year in April. But arrivals of anode, refined
copper, copper alloys and semi-finished copper products stood at 430000 tonnes in
April, the highest monthly imports since April 2014 and up 4.9 percent from 410000
tonnes in March. Data earlier this week showed shipments from top exporter
Indonesia fell 27 percent month-on-month to 5071 tonnes, the lowest since
November. Data earlier this week showed shipments from top exporter Indonesia fell
27 percent month-on-month to 5071 tonnes, the lowest since November. Copper has
been the underperformer in the base metals complex since the beginning of 2014. This
is heavily influenced by an unfolding switch in market balances from deficits to
surpluses. The challenging fundamental backdrop has also been reflected YTD, with
copper falling by around 5% in 1Q15, despite close to 500kt of supply disruptions,
equivalent to what we had allowed for the entire first half of 2015.
MCX Gold
Hovers Around
Rs 26900 Ahead
Of Nonfarm

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
May 11 7:30pm Labor Market Conditions Index m/m -0.3
May 12 6:30pm NFIB Small Business Index 95.8 95.2
7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 5.21M 5.13M
10:15pm FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:30pm Federal Budget Balance 138.0B -52.9B
May 13 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.9%
6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.3% -0.3%
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.3%
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -3.9M
10:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 1.93/2.6
May 14 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 271K 265K
6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 76B
10:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 2.60/2.2
May 15 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.1 -1.2
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% 78.4%
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.6%
7:30pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.5 95.9
7:30pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.6%
May 16 1:30am TIC Long-Term Purchases 9.8B

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26695 26225 25820 27280 27670 28050
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
37150 36050 34885 38600 39550 40600
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed sideways
movement, and consolidated in the
range of 27050-26700. Now, if it is able
to maintain above 27100 then next
major resistance level is seen in the
range of 27650-28000. On other hand
sustaining below 26650 bearish
movement may drag it towards the
support range of 26400-26000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27100 for the targets of 27300-
27500 with stop loss of 26600.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways to bearish movement last
week, took the resistance of upper
band of triangle pattern but not able to
maintain above it. Now, if it sustain
below 37400 then next support is seen
in the range of 36000-35500. On higher
side maintaining above 38600 will
again pull it towards the resistance
level of 40000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 38600 for
the targets of 40000, with stop loss of
37400.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
3720 3570 3365 3885 4060 4240
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
406.20 397.50 387.65 420.50 429.55 439.50
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement and closed
around its important support level of
410. Now, if it maintains on higher
level then next important resistance is
seen around 421 above which next
resistance level is 430. On the other
hand if it sustain below the support
level of 410 then it will drag towards
the next support level of 400.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
buy on dips for the targets of 4000-4100,
with stop loss of 3650.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
bullish movement but not able to hold
above 4000 and steep fall towards the
support level of lower band of channel
pattern. Now, if it sustain below 3700
in coming sessions then next
important support level is seen around
3570. On the other hand 3850 will act
as important resistance level above
which again it will moved towards the
resistance level of 4000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
on dips, with stop loss of 400 for the
targets of 424-432.
PIVOT TABLE

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