- Drought conditions in Brazil have severely damaged coffee crop production, with estimates of 40 million bags or lower for 2015, down from an initial estimate of 47 million bags.
- The drought has caused irreversible damage to coffee trees' root systems that will impact productivity long-term. Brazil's production may not surpass 50 million bags until 2017.
- The coffee market will experience an unprecedented supply squeeze in 2015, leading to record high prices in the first half of the year as demand outstrips supply by 10-20 million bags. Roasters and buyers are advised to secure two years of supply needs.
Il modello veneto per gli interventi di contrasto all’incidentalità stradaledgrv
Leggere i numeri riguardanti i morti e i feriti dovuti all'incidentalità stradale è paragonabile a leggere un bollettino di guerra. Tali statistiche sono tuttavia indispensabili alla comprensione del fenomeno come premessa necessaria per combatterlo e per cercare di alleviarne i costi sociali e economici. La completezza e la buona qualità dei dati sugli incidenti è di grande ausilio nella definizione delle iniziative di contrasto del fenomeno. Per citare solo due esempi, in base alle cause e alla localizzazione degli eventi incidentali si possono orientare le politiche su interventi strutturali sulla viabilità, ove sia inadeguata, o su attività di prevenzione e controllo, ove siano presenti problemi di tipo comportamentale. In questo campo, azioni a limitato costo, quali i miglioramenti alla segnaletica o le attività di sensibilizzazione nelle scuole, possono portare a risultati più significativi di quanto ci si possa aspettare, ottimizzando le risorse economiche disponibili.
Il progetto regionale riguarda la realizzazione di un sistema informativo e organizzativo inerente la Rilevazione statistica sull’incidentalità stradale con lesioni a persone, inserita nel Programma Statistico Nazionale (PSN IST-00142).
Al riguardo la Regione del Veneto ha aderito al Protocollo d’Intesa del 2011 per il coordinamento delle attività inerenti la rilevazione statistica sull’incidentalità stradale sottoscritto tra l’ISTAT, i Ministeri dell’Interno, della Difesa, delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti, la Conferenza delle Regioni e delle Province Autonome, l’Unione delle Province Italiane (UPI) e l’Associazione Nazionale di Comuni Italiani (ANCI). In attuazione del Protocollo è stato predisposto un Progetto, poi approvato da ISTAT, ed è stato sottoscritto un Accordo attuativo con le Province e altri soggetti che ha istituito un Comitato di Coordinamento Regionale per seguire da vicino l’attuazione del Progetto stesso. Per migliorare la completezza e la qualità dei dati raccolti, la Regione Veneto ha collaborato con Istat organizzando una serie di incontri con le Polizie Locali al fine di migliorare la qualità della rilevazione degli incidenti stradali e di promuovere la conoscenza della piattaforma web di “Formazione a distanza”, nota come FAD, dedicata alle modalità di compilazione dei questionari. Dopo una fase sperimentale, il sistema è entrato a regime nel 2013 ed ha consentito di migliorare la tempestività, la completezza, la qualità e l’accessibilità delle informazioni derivanti dalla rilevazione.
Il flusso informativo individuato dal Progetto regionale prevede che i dati raccolti dalle Polizie locali dei Comuni confluiscano in un Centro di Monitoraggio presso la Provincia competente e da qui al Centro di Monitoraggio presso la Regione, mentre i dati raccolti dalla Polizia stradale e dai Carabinieri siano trasmessi ai rispettivi Comandi centrali e da questi all'ISTAT che successivamente li mette a disposizione della
Pablo and Rusty's Coffee Roasters | What are the Biggest Factors for Sustaina...Thomas Chevalier
The outline tends to base on rustic issues in Sustainable Coffee, the load of coffee, the qualities of green/stewed coffee, and how they influence business. The investigation takes 30someplace in the scope of 5 and 10 minutes to wrap up. The investigation is absolutely obscure—no information is assembled that could be used to separate you really or the affiliation you work for.
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
Forecasting prices even one year ahead can be a hazardous business. That applies especially to markets so dominated by that most unpredictable element of weather and, increasingly these days; the sometimes even more capricious influence of global economic trends – trade and GDP growth, currency volatility, the price of crude oil, etc.
Covering over 100 essential oils from 25 producing countries this is the most comprehensive guide to today's market! Also featuring new articles on global sustainability projects and a practical guide to all Australian essential oils!
This is a project report of the demand and supply of coffee in India and around the world. Factors affecting the supply and demand. And a case study on Starbucks.
Il modello veneto per gli interventi di contrasto all’incidentalità stradaledgrv
Leggere i numeri riguardanti i morti e i feriti dovuti all'incidentalità stradale è paragonabile a leggere un bollettino di guerra. Tali statistiche sono tuttavia indispensabili alla comprensione del fenomeno come premessa necessaria per combatterlo e per cercare di alleviarne i costi sociali e economici. La completezza e la buona qualità dei dati sugli incidenti è di grande ausilio nella definizione delle iniziative di contrasto del fenomeno. Per citare solo due esempi, in base alle cause e alla localizzazione degli eventi incidentali si possono orientare le politiche su interventi strutturali sulla viabilità, ove sia inadeguata, o su attività di prevenzione e controllo, ove siano presenti problemi di tipo comportamentale. In questo campo, azioni a limitato costo, quali i miglioramenti alla segnaletica o le attività di sensibilizzazione nelle scuole, possono portare a risultati più significativi di quanto ci si possa aspettare, ottimizzando le risorse economiche disponibili.
Il progetto regionale riguarda la realizzazione di un sistema informativo e organizzativo inerente la Rilevazione statistica sull’incidentalità stradale con lesioni a persone, inserita nel Programma Statistico Nazionale (PSN IST-00142).
Al riguardo la Regione del Veneto ha aderito al Protocollo d’Intesa del 2011 per il coordinamento delle attività inerenti la rilevazione statistica sull’incidentalità stradale sottoscritto tra l’ISTAT, i Ministeri dell’Interno, della Difesa, delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti, la Conferenza delle Regioni e delle Province Autonome, l’Unione delle Province Italiane (UPI) e l’Associazione Nazionale di Comuni Italiani (ANCI). In attuazione del Protocollo è stato predisposto un Progetto, poi approvato da ISTAT, ed è stato sottoscritto un Accordo attuativo con le Province e altri soggetti che ha istituito un Comitato di Coordinamento Regionale per seguire da vicino l’attuazione del Progetto stesso. Per migliorare la completezza e la qualità dei dati raccolti, la Regione Veneto ha collaborato con Istat organizzando una serie di incontri con le Polizie Locali al fine di migliorare la qualità della rilevazione degli incidenti stradali e di promuovere la conoscenza della piattaforma web di “Formazione a distanza”, nota come FAD, dedicata alle modalità di compilazione dei questionari. Dopo una fase sperimentale, il sistema è entrato a regime nel 2013 ed ha consentito di migliorare la tempestività, la completezza, la qualità e l’accessibilità delle informazioni derivanti dalla rilevazione.
Il flusso informativo individuato dal Progetto regionale prevede che i dati raccolti dalle Polizie locali dei Comuni confluiscano in un Centro di Monitoraggio presso la Provincia competente e da qui al Centro di Monitoraggio presso la Regione, mentre i dati raccolti dalla Polizia stradale e dai Carabinieri siano trasmessi ai rispettivi Comandi centrali e da questi all'ISTAT che successivamente li mette a disposizione della
Pablo and Rusty's Coffee Roasters | What are the Biggest Factors for Sustaina...Thomas Chevalier
The outline tends to base on rustic issues in Sustainable Coffee, the load of coffee, the qualities of green/stewed coffee, and how they influence business. The investigation takes 30someplace in the scope of 5 and 10 minutes to wrap up. The investigation is absolutely obscure—no information is assembled that could be used to separate you really or the affiliation you work for.
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
Forecasting prices even one year ahead can be a hazardous business. That applies especially to markets so dominated by that most unpredictable element of weather and, increasingly these days; the sometimes even more capricious influence of global economic trends – trade and GDP growth, currency volatility, the price of crude oil, etc.
Covering over 100 essential oils from 25 producing countries this is the most comprehensive guide to today's market! Also featuring new articles on global sustainability projects and a practical guide to all Australian essential oils!
This is a project report of the demand and supply of coffee in India and around the world. Factors affecting the supply and demand. And a case study on Starbucks.
Silicon Valley Bank 2017 State of the Wine Industry ReportSilicon Valley Bank
The Silicon Valley Bank 2017 State of the Wine Industry Report identifies trends and current issues facing the U.S. wine industry and offers data and observations wineries can use to develop their business strategies.
Silicon Valley Bank's wine report is based on its in-house expertise as one of the largest bankers to the West Coast wine industry for nearly 20 years, a proprietary database of more than a decade of winery financials, ongoing research, and an annual survey of 500+ West Coast wineries. Learn more at http://www.svb.com/wine-report/.
Major Forecasts for 2017:
- Wines sold between $12 and $25 will grow in demand as will high-end luxury wines with an established brand. We expect to see small price increases in these segments, with volume and price drops for bottles priced under $9.
- Premium wine sales will increase between 10 and 14 percent above 2016 levels.
- Per capita consumption faces crosscurrents with retiring wine-loyal baby boomers being replaced by less affluent millennials who are ambivalent about their alcoholic beverage of choice. If economic conditions continue to improve, however, per capita consumption should be slightly higher in 2017.
- Today, millennials are beginning to affect the lower price range of premium sales. Their presence is most visible in the $8 to $11.99 red blend category, but they gradually will shift from blends to varietal wines or imports as their incomes grow.
- Even with winery M&A facing headwinds from higher interest rates, winery acquisitions should remain quite active through 2017.
- Farm labor supply and costs are the dominant concerns in the wine business in 2017.
MORE good news this month for feed raw material consumers’ costs: The world supply outlook for maize seems to be getting looser by the month, pushing prices down to yet more historical (33-month) lows as we go to press. Not only has the US crop turned out even bigger than expected in our last review; the second largest consumer of maize, China, now appears to be using considerably less than estimated earlier. Top outlet for maize, the USA might also need less than expected as we move into 2014 after proposals to roll back targets for renewable fuel use.
Performed detailed analysis and research of the specialty coffee industry by conducting professional and customer interviews. Analyzed problems with two direct competitors and created a third product that solved those problems.
2.
1) 30% below normal vegetative growth and new nodal formation during January-March 2014 period
2) Dryer than normal June-October timeframe necessitating another year of above normal pruning
3) Widespread Premature Flowering in August has aborted due to lack of follow on rains
4) Excessive heat in October likely to cause additional stress and loss of cherry formation capabilities by further damaging the coffee trees root system
5) Longer range weather Models continue to show a below normal precipitation pattern through February 2015
3.
My Initial estimate was 47 million bags for 2015
We are now down to 43-45 million bags as a result of the dry September and aborted first flowering
If October dryness and excessive heat continues to verify we will be down to 40 million bags or even under 40 million bags
This is assuming a normal flowering phase thereafter
If already stressed trees fail to deliver normal flowering then the crop will be even worse
If November is dry/hot then we will have a failed crop
4.
The market must ration demand ahead of this period.
This leads to the first half of 2015 as the likely period where peak prices may be seen
It is also where peak premiums of 2015 futures prices to 2016 futures prices may be seen that could break the record set during the black frost period from 1975-1977
With the arbitrage between Arabica(premium) and Robusta reaching historical extremes, Robusta is beginning to look more attractive on a relative basis and could begin to outperform or in the least perform similarly to Arabica
5.
As Arabica prices and Arabica futures spreads ratchet higher demand for lower priced Robusta will grow in response.
This could begin to create a situation where Robusta prices begin to outperform Arabica prices as a desperate switch is initiated by global roasters
In the end, aggregate coffee demand needs to be rationed by 10 to 20 million bags.
Unheard of in modern times and many orders of magnitude worse than the 2010-2011 period
6.
7.
No amount of rain from this point onward can save the crop from being worse than last year and initiating an unprecedented supply squeeze
All Roasters and end users should have 2 years worth of needs protected with cash contracts, long futures contracts and call options.
Failure to do so will put your business in grave jeopardy and setting up a likely bankruptcy filing
This is no joke. This is not business as usual. The coffee industry will never be the same after this is over.
8.
9. Ratio of March 2015, July 2015 and December 2015 to December 2016 coffee futures prices
13.
Options as a result are expensive-Call Options spreads are only viable option-
Straight futures is only for deep pocketed investors and those that can psychologicaly handle $.40 swings
The global economy is entering recession, commodiites have been in freefall and the U.S. dollar has been spiking higher. With near record net long spec positions in coffee, these forces at any moment could cause short term speculator s to liquidate. That would offer last chance to buy if it occurs.
The July 2015 and the December 2015 bull futures spreads against December 2016 is the preferred risk reward way to play this historic supply scarcity coffee situation
14. Given that the current situation is far more dire than the black frost was due to the fact that large above ground coffee stocks existed back then where they don’t exist today, offers the idea that a new record will be set in this spread when the supply crunch reaches its crescendo
15.
This is the most serious situation to ever envelope the coffee industry. Never have we had two bad Brazilian crops in a row of this magnitude against minimal above ground ending coffee stocks.
If you are a roaster/exporter you must take action now to save yourself from financial ruin.
Coffee farmers should sell hand to mouth until prices better reflect this historic supply demand mismatch
The market has been in a state of denial all year about this. Make sure that you are not the one who is left when the cops come to break up the party.
16.
17.
The long term effects of a tree crop like coffee from this kind of an unprecedented drought are pervasive and irreversible.
The heart of the Brazilian Arabica coffee belt has seen irreversible and permanent damage to the root system.
We will never see the productivity of these trees revert back to their prior glory days
Desperate pruning by coffee farmers to save these trees will prove to be futile
18.
What will become evident in the fall of 2015 is that a large portion of these trees will need to be replaced in order to rehabilitate Brazil back into the dominant coffee producer position in the world.
This will take time and money.
A massive tree rejuvenation program will have to be established and funded by the Brazilian government
This will prevent Brazil from seeing production rebound beyond 50 million bags through 2017
By 2018 brazil should become a powerhouse again and could begin to see 60 to 70 million bag production potential
19.
Thus, when the peak is seen in the first half of 2015 the coffee market will need to bottom out at a much higher equilibrium level for much longer than has ever been seen in history
I can foresee multiple buying opportunities over the next few years that will offer historic opportunities as the give and take of this unprecedented situation completely get's digested by the industry at large.
One wants to be a buyer of all major breaks from now into 2016.
20.
An historic and multi-generational shorting opportunity will likely present itself from the back half of 2016 to the front half of 2017.
In the meantime, it will not be business as usual for a very long time.
MANY BLEESINGS TO ALL AND MAY GOD SHOWWER YOU WITH HUMILITY AND WISDOM TO CARE FOR ONE ANOTHER IN HARMONEY
PEACE BE STILL