Comments on kings college londons paper on indian mindset and dangers of escalation

1. THIS SCRIBE
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Agha_Amin
WAS SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED BY RESEARCH GATE TO
COMMENT ON ARTICLE BELOW :---

2. Nuclear War in South Asia: A Zero-Sum Game
Nuclear War in South Asia: A Zero-Sum Game
Article
Full-text available
 April 2020

Tahir Mahmood Azad
South Asia has entered the most dangerous decade of its time. The likelihood of a nuclear war
between India and Pakistan has become real in case of any misadventure carried out by India.

3. Since 2014, when Narendra Modi came into power in India, the relationship between Pakistan and
India have been at an all time been low. A series of actions carried by India have worsened the
regional peace and stability. On August 05, 2019 India abrogated the articles 370 and 35A of its
constitution which were the instrument of special status of Indian-Occupied Kashmir (IOK). As a
result, Pakistan has responded very seriously and took this matter to the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC). As this issue prolongs, it may escalate to any minor or major crisis. India may
carry out a “false-flag operation” in Kashmir to attempt to validate military action against Pakistan.
This may lead to a full-scale war, of course, a nuclear war.
COMMENTS ON THE ABOVE
MENTIONED ARTICLE BY
AGHA H AMIN AS
SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED
BY RESEARCH GATE :--

4. COMMENTS AGHA H AMIN:--
SINCE PAKISTAN AND INDIA ACQUIRED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN 1974-83
ALL ALONG THE INDO PAK SUB CONTINENT HAS BECOME A DANGEROUS PLACE SO
TERMS LIKE “DANGEROUS DECADE” AS THE LEARNED AUTHOR USED IN ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAGRAPH ARE NOT RELEVANT.
INDIA AND PAKISTAN HAS SEEN SERIOUS ESCALATIONS , FAR MORE SERIOUS
ESCALATIONS AND STAND OFFSLIKE IN 1984 AND 1987 SO THIS PARTICULAR
ESCALATION AND FLASHPOINT IS NOT SOMETHING EXTRAORDINARY.
NOW COMING TO THE WRITERS ASSERTION THAT INDIA MAY CARRY OUT A FALSE
FLAG OPERATION IN KASHMIR IS “FAR FETCHED” BECAUSE THE VERY NUCLEAR
DETERRENT THAT MADE THIS REGION DANGEROUS “DETERS” INDIA FROM ANY FALSE
FLAG OPERATION.
RATHER INDIA IS A SMALL PLAYER WHEN WE COMPARE USA IN AFGHANISTAN WHO
KNEW ALL ALONG THAT PAKISTAN WAS PLAYING A DOUBLE GAME AND SECRETLY
HELPING AFGHAN TALIBAN ! EVEN WITH THIS FACT WELL KNOWN THE USA “DARED
NOT” CARRY OUT A FALSE FLAG OPERATION TO PUNISH PAKISTAN ! SO IF A GIANT
COULD NOT DO IT , HOW WOULD A MICKEY MOUSE POWER LIKE INDIA DO IT ?

5. THE WRITERS PREMISE IS “SENSATIONAL” BUT “FAR FETCHED” AND A RESEARCH
SCHOLAR AT KINGS COLLEGE LONDON SHOULD AVOID “FAR FETCHED” ASSERTIONS.
THIS IS CASE WITH BOTH STATES AND AS A MATTER OF FACT BOTH STATES ARE
CARRYING OUT PROXY WARS AGAINST EACH OTHER SINCE THEY WERE CREATED.
PAKISTAN WAS THE FIRST TO START PROXY WAR IN KASHMIR AND INDIA RESPONDED
BY ACTIVELY SUPPORTING IN EAST BENGAL IN 1971.
SO AGAIN THIS STATEMENT OF THE AUTHOR IS NOT “FACTUAL” BUT MORE OF A
POLITICAL SPEECH OR COMMENT . SERIOUS ANALYSIS MUST NOT CONTAIN
ASSERTIONS LIKE ABOVE QUOTED.
THIS AGAIN IS A POLITICAL PREMISE AND NOT A SERIOUS RESEARCH PREMISE ?
THE WRITERS BLAMING MODI IS AGAIN NOT IN GOOD TASTE ?
WHY ? BECAUSE RELIGIOUS OBSCURANTISM AND BIGOTRY WAS FIRST FINE TUNED IN
PAKISTAN. WE SAW IT AS YOUNG OFFICERS IN PAKISTAN ARMY WHEN RELIGIOUS
BIAS WAS SUCH THAT AHMADIS COULD NOT GO BEYOND LT COL RANK HOWEVER
QUALIFIED BETWEEN 1977 AND 1991 OR SO .

6. SHIA OFFICERS WERE REGARDED AS SECURITY RISK IN SENSITIVE APPOINTMENTS IN
THE INTELLIGENCE AND THIS SITUATION PERSISTS TILL TODATE WHILE RESTRICTIONS
ON AHMADIS ALSO BY AND LARGE REMAINED BUT AHMADIS CLEVERLY ADOPTED
SHIA DOCTRINE OF TAQAYYA AND STOPPED DECLARING THEMSELVES AS AHMADIS.
RELIGIOUS BIAS WAS SUCH THAT COLUMNS OF RELIGION WERE IMPOSED IN IDENTITY
DOCUMENTS LIKE PASSPORTS AND NO GOVERNMENT DARED UNDO IT.
RELIGIOUS BIAS WAS SUCH THAT SINDH GOVERNMENT DARED NOT SIGN A BILL
AGAINST FORCED RELIGIOUS CONVERSION TILL TODATE.
. ADMIRAL SHARIF A RETIRED CHARACTER HANDPICKED BY GENERAL ZIA AS
CHAIRMAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION WAS HAND PICKING MEMBERS OF
RELIGIOUS ORGANISATIONS LIKE JAMAAT ISLAMI IN THE PRESTIGIOUS CIVIL
SUPERIOR SERVICES OF PAKISTAN IN THE PERIOD 1980-90. ADMIRAL SHARIF WAS
NOTORIOUS FOR SELECTING CIVIL SERVANTS BASED ON HOW GOOD MUSLIMS THEY
WERE AS PER HIS IDEAS. HIS BIAS WAS SUCH THAT IN 1986 HE DECLARED A TOP CSS
CANDIDATE SYED ZAFAR BUKHARI AS UNFIT FOR ALL SERVICES EXCEPT POST OFFICE
BECAUSE BUKHARI IN HIS PSYCHOLOGICAL TEST HAD NAMED THE PROGRESSIVE
POET FAIZ AHMAD FAIZ AS HIS FAVOURITE POET.
THIS SCRIBE PASSED CSS EXAMINATION OF 1987 AND CLASHED WITH ADMIRAL
SHARIF WHEN HE STARTED ASKING IRRELEVANT QUESTIONS ABOUT THE JUMA
PRAYERS . IN 1989 I AGAIN CLEARED CSS EXAMINATION BUT SHARIF GOT EXTENSION
AS CHAIRMAN SO I REFUSED TO APPEAR IN 1990 INTERVIEW AS I WROTE IN A LETTER
THAT I HAVE NO FAITH IN ADMIRAL SHARIFS INTEGRITY AS CHAIRMAN.
THE BOOTOM LINE IS THAT PAKISTANI STATE WAS SELECTING RABID ISLAMISTS EVEN
IN THE PRESTIGIOUS CIVIL SERVICES UNDER SHARIFS STEWARDSHIP IN 1980-90 , TEN
LONG YEARS.

7. TO COMPARE SUCH A RABIDLY BIASED STATE WITH MODIS INDIA IS IN PRINCIPLE
UNFAIR.
I DONATED SOME MONEY TO A SHIA MOSQUE IN OKARA CANTONMENT IN 1993 WHILE
COMMANDING AN INDEPENDENT SQUADRON AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT WAS
INITIATED AGAINST ME. THE REPORT HAD A HILARIOUS ANGLE ALSO. GENERAL
ASLAM BEG WAS PRESENTED A SHIELD BY IRANIAN NAVY CHIEF AND GENERAL BEG
BEING VERY CLOSE FRIEND OF MY FATHER GAVE IT TO ME. I ASKED MY CLERK TO GET
THE SHIELD FRAMED AT MY OWN EXPENSE,THIS SHIELD WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE
REPORT AND NOTED THAT THIS OFFICER HAS DANGEROUS SECTARIAN VIEWS.
ONGOING CASE OF RELIGIOUS BIAS IN PAKISTAN IS SHIA MOSQUE IN THE PAKISTAN
ARMY RUN DHA LAHORE AGAINST WHOM THE PAKISTAN ARMY OWNED DHA HAS
GONE TO LAHORE HIGH COURT.
TO NAME MODI AS RELIGIOUSLY BIASED IS NOT FAIR.
NOW COMING TO WRITERS ASSERTION THAT MODI IS CREATING SENSE OF
INSECURITY IN NEIGHBOURING STATES ? IF PAKISTAN IS STILL INSECURE WITH OVER
100 NUCLEAR WARHEADS I AM SHOCKED AT THE WRITERS SUPREME NAIEVETTE !

8. The above quoted are normal election slogans of politicians and cannot be really
interpreted as signs of South Asia becoming more dangerous.
Above statements again , I am reading since I started reading as a 5 year old in
1966.Nothing new . This is not serious basis of a credible research paper written by a
student at Kings College London.

9. Indias Cold Start was a non starter and has evaded the harsh tests of reality.
India has been unable to apply it. Both Pakistan and India, Mickey mouse states with high
poverty have been firing missiles since last two decades and this again really adds to no
escalation !

10. The above quoted doctrines are stuff that new army chiefs and new governments coin and
conceive as a political or personal career advancement gimmick.
Back in mid 1980s General Sundarji created much hype with RAPID Divisions and Exercise
Brasstacks but nothing came out of it in the end except a more DISCREDITED Indian Army
in a situation where Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi feared his armys adventurist ideas
like EXERCISE BRASSTACKS more than Pakistani military (Refer to The Dynasty by SS
Gill) my review appended at the end of this paper summing up my comments.

11. Pakistan has never been able to match Indian defence budget but the hard fact is that
Pakistan has maintained a “CREDIBLE DETERRENT” .
The writers idea about Pakistan developing tiny nuclear weapons is immature and
dangerous as this would weaken Pakistani nuclear security and strengthen the western and
anti Pakistan international propaganda that Pakistani nuclear weapons are unsafe and that
Pakistan should be denuclearized.

12. These figures can be cited for any state but is man rational ? The same is case with USA,
Russia, China,Israel and all nuclear weapon states ? This is good utopian arm chair
idealism but nothing substantial ! The harsh reality of geopolitics is totally different.

13. Both India and Pakistan know that war is not the solution.Prime Minister Imran Khan is
another particle in the sands of history and will not make an iota of difference.
As a researcher and student in a high profile , so called highly rated educational institution
you should make a more serious effort to analyse these complex issues and offer :--
1. Concrete CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES THAT CAN DEFUSE THE SITUATION.
2. MAKE YOUR ANALYSIS MORE BALANCED BY ALSO INCLUDING PAKISTANI
MILITARYS MINDSET AND ADVENTURISM LIKE KARGIL INFILTRATION OF 1999 WHICH
WAS WORST CASE OF NUCLEAR BRINKMANSHIP. HOWEVER YOU HAVE NOT
MENTIONED THIS INCIDENT AT ALL.
3. REGARDING BIAS THIS IS ON BOTH SIDES. EVEN IN PAKISTAN ONLY PEOPLE FROM
THREE OR FOUR DISTRICTS IN NORTH PUNJAB AND ABOUT 5,000 FAMILIES CALL
THE SHOTS. COMMUNAL RIOTS AND RELIGIOUS POGROMS ARE AN INTEGRAL PART
OF INDIAN AND PAKISTANI HISTORY.
4. PAKISTAN IS FAR AHEAD OF INDIA IN COMMUNAL AND SECTARIAN BIAS AS
FACTUALLY PROVEN BY DECLARING AHMADIS NON MUSLIMS AND BY BLACK LAWS
LIKE BLASPHEMY LAW AND VARIOUS LAWS FORMULATED DURING GENERAL ZIAS
TIME AND INSERTION OF RELIGION IN PASSPORT ETC, FORCED CONVERSIONS IN
SINDH.

14. 5. THE HARSH FACT IS THAT INDIA AT LEAST HAS RELIGIOUS MINORITIES WHILE
99.99 % HINDUS OR SIKHS WERE MASSACRED OR FORCED TO MIGRATED FROM
PAKISTANI WEST PUNJAB AND MUSLIMS FROM EAST PUNJAB. THIS INTOLERANCE IN
BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN IS A PARTICULARLY PUNJABI ISSUE. EVEN DELHI THE
CENTRE OF RIOTS IS A PUNJABI HINDU MAJORITY CITY, MOSTLY DESCENDANTS OF
WEST PUNJABI MIGRANT ORIGIN.
6. RESEARCH PAPERS SHOULD BE MORE SUBLTE AND NEUTRAL THAN THE ONE I AM
COMMENTING ON.


15. OUT OF 13 US MILITARY DEATHS IN 2003 BECAUSE OF ACTUAL ENEMY ACTION 7 WERE
AT FOB SHKIN WHICH WAS SIMPLY A TACTICAL DIASASTER SITTING DUCK LOCATION
 October 2012

16.  DOI:
 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.26729
 Projects:
 Afghanistan Studies
 Military History of India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Iran Afghanistan Burma Central Asian Republics
China and Turkey
 Decision Making
 Afghan War and Military History
 Anatomy of Incompetence of all kinds
 US Military History
 European History
 Agha H Amin

17. 