An Artificial Intelligence (AI) extremely surpassed the human intelligence is called "Superintelligence". In a short while, the Superintelligence will be developed for the first time in our history. The Superintelligence raises an exponential development of the scientific technology and affects the human society and civilization. The time is called "Singularity (Technological Singularity)". An American futurist Ray Kurzweil, who bruits the concept of Singularity, predicts that the time will come in the year 2045. And he also predicts that the capacity of the AI will gets up to that of a human in the year 2029. I would like to call the period prior to 2045 as "Pre-Singularity". An AI used for a specific purpose is called "Narrow AI", and an AI used for general purposes is called "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)“. Today there is only Narrow AI, but it will greatly affect the human society such as Technological Unemployment in the coming future. If AGI comes into being, the influence increases dramatically. Researchers all over the world endeavors to develop the AGI. In recent years, researches of the Superintelligence are implemented in Japan. I will discuss what is the Superintelligence and political, economic, technological and military significances. I will especially introduce the roadmap for the development of the Super intelligence in Japan. I will also discuss about the possibility that Singularity will be occurred from Japan in 2020s much earlier than the year 2045.

1. The singularity is coming
Takuya Matsuda
Professor Emeritus of Kobe University
2015/10/28
Code Blue

2. The Problem of the Year 2045
When Computers surpass Humankind
• Kosaido Shoten
• 2013, January
• Keibundo Book Award

3. What is the technological singularity?
• The date when the superintelligence (SI) will
appear
– 2045? (R. Kurzweil)
• What is the superintelligence?
– Entity far more intelligent than human
• The date when intelligence explosion will occur
– AI will rewrite its own code (I.J. Good)
• Science and technology developed enormously by
SI
– Human society will be hugely influenced

4. Hollywood view of Artificial
Intelligence
映画 Matrix

5. 2001 A Space Odyssey
HAL9000: Strong AI
Stanley Kubrick, 1998

6. The Terminator
Skynet, Killer robots
James Cameron, 1985

7. Ghost in the Shell: Cyborg,
Cyberbrain
Masamune Shirow, 1991; Film 1995,
2004 (Mamoru Oshii), 2011, 2013,
2015

8. The Matrix: Neo and the Architect
Simulated reality hypothesis
The Wachowski Brothers, 1999

9. Her: Virtual assistant
Spike Jonze, 2013

10. Transcendence:
Mind Uploading
Wally Pfister, 2014

11. Lucy: Superhuman
Luc Besson, Scarlett Johanson, 2014

12. Ex-Machina: Turing test
Alex Garland, 2015

13. Classification of superintelligence (SI)
• Machine SI
– Terminator, Matrix
• Public image
• Superhuman
– Biologically enhanced human
– Lucy
• Not plausible
• Intelligent Amplification (IA)
– Ghost in the shell
• Most likely

14. Classification of artificial intelligence
• Narrow AI
– Specific purposes
– Current AI
– Chess machine, Shogi machine, Watson
– Siri ( Virtual assistant )
• Artificial general intelligence (AGI)
– Human-like AI
– With common sense
– 2029? (R. Kurzweil)

15. Path to the AGI
• Biological path
– Emulate the neocortex
• Mathematical path
– Deep Learning, Fashionable
• Engineering path
– Current classical AI
– Watson

16. Road to the singularity
• 2015-2029
– Smart machine (Gartner)
– Technological unemployment
• 2029: Pre-singularity
– AGI with 1H (Human)?
– Pass the Turing test? (R. Kurzweil)
– The ghost in the shell (M. Shirow)
• 2045: The singularity
– Intellectual capacity of all human combined (109-
10H) (R. Kurzweil)

17. When the singularity will occur?
• Specialist opinion poll
• 2020s: 10%
• 2040-2050: 50%
• 21st century: 90%
• Never happen:10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)

18. World view after singularity
• Utopian view
– R. Kurzweil
– Immortal
– SI will solve all awkward problems
• Apocalyptic view
– Humankind will be terminated or enslaved
– Hollywood view

19. Argument of AI threat
• Stephan Hawking (Astrophysicist)
• Elon Musk (Tesla Morters)
– AI is nuke!
– But investment to the AI company Vicarious
• Bill Gates (Microsoft)
– MS invests AI hugely
• Hollywood view

20. Specialists do not agree the AI threat
• Very good: 20%
• Good: 40%
• Neutral: 15%
• Bad: 15%
• Very bad: 10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)

21. Realistic world after singularity
• SI and humankind will coexist
• Widening gap between nations?
– Nations with SI and those without
– Developed countries and developing countries in
the 21st century
• Widening gap between individuals?
– Rich people only will be saved?
– Elysium

22. Society we should look for after the
singularity, 1
• Omnipotent and omnibenevolent superintteligence?
– Global brain?
• Need not to work?
– Everybody are teachers of culture centers
– Basic income will be provided by the government

23. Ancient Greek and Rome
• Slaves performed works
• Citizens did research, sports, entertainment
• Ancient Athens: Population of some hundred
thousand
– Some ten thousand citizens and hundred
thousand slaves
• Future society
– Robots with AI do works
– All human do research, sports and entertainment

24. Ancient Greek Life

25. Political and social implication of SI
Owner of SI can dominate the world

26. Turning points of humankind
• Agricultural revolution: 10000 y ago
– Settlement, village, city, nation
• Industrial revolution: 250 y ago
– Successful developed countries
• Europe, America and Japan
– Unsuccessful developing countries
• China and India
• Coming another industrial revolution

27. China’s past failure
• China was traditionally big and advanced country
• Early Ming dynasty (1405-1433)
• Zheng He’s expedition
• Fleet of 317 ships holding 28,000 crewmen
• Brunei, Java, Thailand, India, Africa and Arabia
• China could become a world empire
• But destroid all records
• Spain (1492), Portugal (1498), Netherland,
England dominated ocean
• West dominates the world hereafter

28. Japanese marginal success
• End of Edo era
• Four American warships visited Japan and gave a
huge shock
• Expulsion of foreigners!
– Nonsensical slogan
– Satsuma and Choshu were defeated by foreign forces
• Iwakura Mission to America and Europe
– Change the foreign policy to open the country
• Rulers are Shogun, Daimyo and Kuge
– Samurai of lower class worked hard

29. Iwakura Mission

30. Present and future Japan
• Present time is analogous to the end of Edo era
– Sleeping in peace
• SI will be future black warships
• Ruling class must awake
– Politician, Bureaucrat, Entrepreneur, Media
• Present patriot
– Instead of marshal arts and Dutch studies,
Mathematics, Computer and English are needed
– Capable people who can build SI
– Petite genius

31. Present and Near Future of AI

32. Can one stop the advance of AI?
No!!
• Two motivation of promotion of AI
• Military: Pentagon
– US national security: Topmost important factor
– Challenge by China
• Money: Wall Street
– Search and advertisement
– Home, Industry, Military Robots
• Cannot stop it

33. Governmental level
• EU
– Human Brain Project
– Simulate human brain by super computer
– 160 B Yen in 10 years
– By 2023
• USA
– Brain Initiative
– Clarify the functions of brain

34. ＩＴ giants and AI
• Google
• Facebook
• Microsoft
• ＩＢＭ: Watson、SyNAPSE、Cortical Processor
• Baidu: Artificial Intelligence Institute,
– Andrew Ng

35. Competition on AI
• Manhattan project of AI
• Google secured many AI researchers
• Deep Mind
• Deep Learning: J. Hinton
• Singularity: R. Kurzweil
• Japanese startup for humanoid robots: SHAFT
• Intelligent people are the most important factor
in future society
• Buy genius?

36. Ambition of Google
• Google glass
• Google cat
• Autonomous cars
• D-Wave quantum computers
• Hire R. Kurzweil
• DeepMind: 65 B Yen
• Buy 8 robots company
• NEST: 320 B Yen
• Artificial satellite: 50 B Yen

37. Japanese programs
• Dwango AI Institute
• Recruit AI Institute
• AIST
• Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
• Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology
• US IT Corp: Western Governments: Japan=100:10:1
• Japan will almost certainly lose

38. Whole Brain Architecture Workshop
• http://www.sig-agi.org/wba

39. Singularity from Japan!!
• Dr. Motoaki Saito
– “Shock by Exa-scale”
– Medical doctor of Tokyo Univ.
• Successful startup at Silicon valley
• Development of supercomputer in Japan
– 7 months+4months
– Top Green 500 2015, 1-3 position
• Exa-scale supercomputer is possible by 2020

40. Neuro Synaptic Processing Unit
• Current PEZY chip: 1024 cores
• 10^11cores, 10^14 interconnect
• By 2020-2025
• Human brain
– 10^11 neurons, 10^14 synapses
• Within 6-8 litter
• 10^7-10^10 times more capable than human
brain
• Singularity from Japan!!??
• Hardware will be OK. Software is our target.

41. My SI and IA
• Hardware is Saito machine (2020-2025)
• Software: HTM theory? HSTM theory?
• Synthesized neocortex is on the cloud
• Humans contact with it through wearable
• All information are there
• Help scientific research, paper writing and
experiment
• Scientific explosion

42. My roadmap
• Skank-works type institution
• 10-30 petit genius
• 30 million yen/person, year
• 15 years development time
• 4.5-13.5 B Yen
– F35: 14 B Yen
• Huge increase of productivity
• Exa-scale supercomputer
• 25 B Yen

43. Intelligence amplification
• We already amplify our brain
– Books, Wikipedia
– Smartphone, HMD
• Human and AI are unified
– Virtual assistant like Siri
• Non invasive manner
– HMD, Brain waves
• Invasive manner
– Chips in the brain

44. Give rise to the singularity from Japan
• Essential to save aging Japan
• Japan will almost certainly lose
• Let us make superintelligent machine
– Saito’s brain computer
• Let us invent The Master Algorithm
• Young power is necessary