The document discusses the history and science of climate change, including:
- 19th century scientists recognized the atmosphere plays a key role in warming the planet.
- In the late 20th century, precise measurements of CO2 levels showed a rising baseline concentration in the atmosphere.
- Ice core data from Antarctica demonstrated a close link between historical temperature and CO2 levels.
- The risks of unabated climate change include severe impacts on water resources, ecosystems, and global food security.
This presentation briefly describes the term - climate change and what we know and what we don't know. The intention was to understand the ideology of the term, framing of the term and politics behind this.
Describes latest observations of climate by satellites and ground stations and assesses them relative to the possible causes of 'greenhouse gases', world energy use, and latent heat transfer by crop irrigation.
This presentation briefly describes the term - climate change and what we know and what we don't know. The intention was to understand the ideology of the term, framing of the term and politics behind this.
Describes latest observations of climate by satellites and ground stations and assesses them relative to the possible causes of 'greenhouse gases', world energy use, and latent heat transfer by crop irrigation.
James Hansen, NASA GISS live at the Zero Emissions Conference, Melbourne Australia
Sun, 2007-07-01 11:17 — matthew
James Hansen opened the Zero Emissions Conference to a full house at RMIT University yesterday in Melbourne, Australia
The Zero Emission Network and Beyond Zero Emissions have brought together a program of guest speakers from around the world on climate change science, zero emission renewable energy and successful campaigning methods at the Zero Emissions Conference in Melbourne.
James Hansen, speaking via conference link from Sweden, spoke about the latest scientific predictions on climate change.
Dr Hansen's slideshow
Audio now available
"This conference has been very successful, in educating many community leaders on the dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere now," said Matthew Wright, lead spokesman for Beyond Zero Emissions.
"It was fantastic to hear from energy experts from around the world," said Adrian Whitehead, covenor of Zero Emissions Network. "We need to raise awareness of the environmental crisis the human race is facing, and this weekend was a great start."
And I thought that Waldemar Kaempffert's 1956 article on CO2 and climate was prescient. This one came three years earlier. Both pieces center on the work of Gilbert Plass. Here's a link to a Dot Earth post on Plass, with more on the 1956 piece, as well:
Pioneering Greenhouse Analyst Appraised http://nyti.ms/VBCHax
James Hansen, NASA GISS live at the Zero Emissions Conference, Melbourne Australia
Sun, 2007-07-01 11:17 — matthew
James Hansen opened the Zero Emissions Conference to a full house at RMIT University yesterday in Melbourne, Australia
The Zero Emission Network and Beyond Zero Emissions have brought together a program of guest speakers from around the world on climate change science, zero emission renewable energy and successful campaigning methods at the Zero Emissions Conference in Melbourne.
James Hansen, speaking via conference link from Sweden, spoke about the latest scientific predictions on climate change.
Dr Hansen's slideshow
Audio now available
"This conference has been very successful, in educating many community leaders on the dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere now," said Matthew Wright, lead spokesman for Beyond Zero Emissions.
"It was fantastic to hear from energy experts from around the world," said Adrian Whitehead, covenor of Zero Emissions Network. "We need to raise awareness of the environmental crisis the human race is facing, and this weekend was a great start."
And I thought that Waldemar Kaempffert's 1956 article on CO2 and climate was prescient. This one came three years earlier. Both pieces center on the work of Gilbert Plass. Here's a link to a Dot Earth post on Plass, with more on the 1956 piece, as well:
Pioneering Greenhouse Analyst Appraised http://nyti.ms/VBCHax
Climate Science before 1988 by Spencer Weartipcc-media
Climate Science before 1988 by Spencer Weart, presentation delivered on 13 March 2018 in Paris during the celebrations of the IPCC 30th Anniversary organized by France
The physical chemistry of the atmosphere, and the relation between Greenhouse gas concentration and temperature, are well understood and have been since the 19th century, although our understanding of the role of water vapour is far from perfect. A large part of the global warming of the Earth's surface takes place in the ocean, which covers 70% of the globe and is the main source of water vapour. Reliable measurements of sea surface temperature from ships started in 1853 and are now continued with drifting buoys that can profile down to 1000 m. Although these observations are sparse compared with the size of the ocean, they nevertheless all reveal a consistent rise in ocean temperature that translates into a slow rise in sea level due to thermal expansion. SAMS
is one of an international group of laboratories surrounding the north Atlantic that monitor the global ocean circulation. We have seen a rapid rise in temperature west of Scotland that can be attributed in part to global warming, but also to changes in circulation patterns of the Atlantic. Modern tools, such as remotely operated marine gliders that can dive to 1000 m, are changing the way we make observations and will enable us to improve our understanding of the way in which the
ocean circulation behaves over long periods of time.
[Presentation at the UHI Climate Change Summit 2010 by Toby Sherwin, Toby Sherwin, Professor of Oceanography, Scottish Association of Marine Science (SAMS) UHI]
Running Head IS THE THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING REALIS THE THRE.docxwlynn1
Running Head: IS THE THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING REAL?
IS THE THREAT OF GLOBAL WARMING REAL? 8
Is the Threat of Global Warming Real?
Name
Subject
Teacher
Date
Is the Threat of Global Warming Real?
The Wall Street Journal used to run an editorial in 2012 about the denial of global warming. This editorial showed that climate change was not real. However, it was written by many people who were not climate scientists themselves. One of them was Richard Lindzen, who was a global warming denier and at the same time a denier of the concept that smoking causes cancer (Prothero, 2012). With these kinds of people denying global warming and with the concrete evidence that global warming exists, the threat of global warming is real.
Definition of Global Warming
Global warming is defined as “the slow increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere” due to the “increased amount of heat energy striking the earth from the sun” which is trapped in the atmosphere instead of being radiated into space (WarmHeatWorldwide.org, 2018). The old term for global warming was “greenhouse effect” and the relatively new collective term is “climate change.”
Evidence for Global Warming
The answer to the 16 authors of the opinion editorial who denied the existence of global warming is a series of confirmed scientific evidence. One of this is a Feb. 2, 2012 confirmation of an 18-mile crack that appeared in Antarctica, and was later on confirmed to have been caused by heat (Prothero, 2012). It is interesting that this crack occurred only a few days after the editorial of the 16 authors denied the existence of global warming. Perhaps then, when one denies something, he will find all the evidence against it. However, one should understand that the final arbiter when it comes to evidence should be science, or empirical and verified information.
One of the first proofs that science offers in order to prove the existence of global warming is the temperature scale from the year 0 CE. The Moberg et al. plot of 2000 years shows the temperature increase since the year 1800 and the increase has been sharp (see Figure 1 below). One should also see that the Medieval Warm Period from 900-1200 AD was nothing compared to the warming since 1800 (Prothero, 2012). Temperature ranges from 1880 to the present from three independent sources also confirm the objective existence of global warming (see Figure 2 below).
Figure 1. Temperature of the earth.
Source: Skeptic.com
Figure 2. Temperature of the earth from 3 sources.
Source: Skeptic.com
Another proof of the reality and truth of global warming is the carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere in the last 200 years. In fact, the data for the carbon dioxide increase in the past 900 years has been derived from ice cores, tree rings, corals and many direct measurements. The carbon dioxide levels were relatively even since 10,000 years ago and even the past 1000 years. However, the last 200 years, when the Ind.
Decoding the Weather MachineDiscover how Earth’s intricate clima.docxrandyburney60861
Decoding the Weather Machine
Discover how Earth’s intricate climate system is changing.
copy this link in website the viedo around 1:53 mins
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/decoding-the-weather-machine
see the video and the all answers will be in viedeo
QUESTION 1
Concerns about climate change have emerged based on scientific research that identified over 26,000 independent lines of evidence that the planet is warming. Which of the following is NOT cited as evidence of climate change in the first few minutes of the video?
a. Length and intensity of heatwaves has increased.
b. Plants and trees are flowering earlier in the year.
c. Birds are migrating to higher latitudes.
d. Glaciers are melting.
e. All of the above are mentioned.
QUESTION 2
Earth’s climate has changed naturally in the past, as evidenced by the boulder placed in Central Park by a continental glacier. The scientific evidence says that today’s climate change is caused by:
a. Change in volcanic eruptions
b. Changes in solar output
c. Milankovitch cycles
d. Burning of fossil fuels
QUESTION 3
Joseph Fourier conducted experiments to understand Earth’s energy balance and infrared radiation in which year?
a. 1824
b. 1724
c. 1924
d. 2004
QUESTION 4
John Tyndall discovered that ________ is a “heat-trapping gas” in 1859.
a. oxygen
b. hydrogen
c. carbon dioxide
d. nitrogen
QUESTION 5
The work of Fourier and Tyndall set the scientific foundation for the understanding of:
a. the ozone cycle
b. the greenhouse effect
c. thermohaline circulation
d. albedo
QUESTION 6
In the 1950s, when Dave Keeling first began to measure levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide above Hawaii at Mauna Loa, the first few months of readings caused him to think that the equipment was malfunctioning.
Describe the results that caused this confusion. Write 2-3 sentences.
QUESTION 7
Was there an equipment malfunction? Explain the new discovery that this event revealed. Write 2-3 sentences.
QUESTION 8
How many years of data do ice core samples from Antarctica reveal?
a. 800,000
b. 8,000,000
c. 800
d. 8,000
QUESTION 9
Considering the composition of gases in the atmosphere, do the last 60 years of ice core data confirm the data from the Keeling curve?
Yes
No
QUESTION 10
Scientists who compare oxygen-16 and oxygen-18 levels incorporated into clamshells in order to determine past temperature patterns are examining:
a. the saffir-simpson scale
b. dendrochronology
c. isotopes
d. gyres
QUESTION 11
Describe the relationship between carbon dioxide levels and temperature, as indicated in the scientific record over millions of years:
QUESTION 12
Natural sources that add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere include all of the following, EXCEPT:
a. volcanoes
b. decay of forests
c. forest fires
d. photosynthesis
QUESTION 13
Air contains carbon atoms with different numbers of neutrons. Ralph Keeling and other scientists have tested carb.
An illustrative view of how American energy infrastructure will have to change over the coming decades to meet both demand and an CO2 reduction of some 60+ %.
Emissions Trading Media Briefing February 2009David Hone
An overview of emissions trading (cap-and-trade), how it works and a focus on allocation of allowances. This presentation was given by Shell to a group of London media representatives on February 18th 2009.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
Grote partijen zijn al een tijdje onderweg met retail media. Ondertussen worden in dit domein ook de kansen zichtbaar voor andere spelers in de markt. Maar met die kansen ontstaan ook vragen: Zelf retail media worden of erop adverteren? In welke fase van de funnel past het en hoe integreer je het in een mediaplan? Wat is nu precies het verschil met marketplaces en Programmatic ads? In dit half uur beslechten we de dilemma's en krijg je antwoorden op wanneer het voor jou tijd is om de volgende stap te zetten.
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...PaulBryant58
This article provides a comprehensive guide on how to
effectively manage the convert Accpac to QuickBooks , with a particular focus on utilizing online accounting services to streamline the process.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Climate Science
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2.
3. The Greenhouse Effect Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth’s surface. This heat is radiated back towards space as infrared radiation. Much of the outgoing heat is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere and re-emitted in all directions, warming the lower atmosphere. ºC Global temperature rise 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
5. Changes in outgoing long-wave radiation CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S RESOLVED OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION FIELD AS SEEN FROM THE IRIS AND IMG INSTRUMENTS H.E. Brindley*, P.J. Sagoo, R. J. Bantges and J.E. Harries Imperial College, London, UK Change in outgoing long-wave radiation 1970-1997 CO 2 CFC-11 CFC-12 O 3 CH 4
6. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C.
7. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C.
8. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen.
9. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen.
10. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen. The Vostok ice-core from Antarctica demonstrates a close link between temperature and CO 2 .
11. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen. The Vostok ice-core from Antarctica demonstrates a close link between temperature and CO 2 .
12. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen. The Vostok ice-core from Antarctica demonstrates a close link between temperature and CO 2 .
13. A short history of global warming science 1820 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Physicists such as John Tyndall and Joseph Fourier recognise that the atmosphere plays a key role in keeping the planet warm. The physics showed that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, puts forward a number of theories related to atmospheric CO 2 , seeking a theory to explain the ice age cycles. Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere would give rise to a 4-5 C. Atmospheric physics comes of age as the world enters the “Cold War”. Computing power, direct measurement and funding for science bring new thinking and theories forward, but measurement of CO 2 in the atmosphere proves problematic With a painstaking series of measurements in the pristine air of Antarctica and high atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Charles David Keeling nailed down precisely a stable baseline level of CO 2 in the atmosphere. In 1960, with only two full years of Antarctic data in hand, Keeling reported that this baseline level had risen. The Vostok ice-core from Antarctica demonstrates a close link between temperature and CO 2 . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings the global scientific community together.
14. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report - 2007 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Global atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 , methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in many physical and biological systems. Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21 st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 th century.
17. Models using only natural forcings Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings Observations
18. A new direction is needed The way we use our planet today is not sustainable
19. The risk we are currently running . . . ºC 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 1990 Global temperature rise Large- s cale h igh- i mpact e vents Higher Very Low
22. We can shift the outcome . . . . . . ºC 1990 Global temperature rise Large- s cale h igh- i mpact e vents Higher Very Low 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 0 -
23. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report
24. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. >> 550 ppm Trajectory Current “business as usual” trend, even with more renewable power, biofuels and energy efficiency improvements. << 550 ppm Trajectory An alternative trajectory will require concerted action at national and inter-national level. It must start now.
25. . . . but the debate is shifting rapidly IPCC 3 rd AR Hadley G8 Report IPCC 4 th AR Jim Hansen <550 ppm 450 ppm 400 ppm 350 ppm ?? 2001 2005 2007 2008 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
26.
27. A world of energy nationalism A world of emerging coalitions Accelerated structural & regulatory change Reactive structural & regulatory change
28. Consequences for energy CO 2 emissions Late reactions Early actions Europe North America Asia & Oceania - Developed Asia & Oceania - Developing Latin America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
29. Blueprints is stabilising at 550 ppm CO 2 ; Scramble reaches 683 ppm CO 2 in 2100, . . . . . . but still rising at 3 ppm each year Source: MIT
31. Expected temperature rises start to diverge after 2030 IPCC: mean temperature in 2005 is around 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial (1750), and 0.74°C warmer than 100 years ago (1906).
32. Key Impacts - Water Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 C Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
33. Key Impacts - Ecosystems Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 C Up to 30% of species at Significant extinctions increasing risk of extinction around the globe Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation
34. Key Impacts - Food Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 C Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals to decrease in low latitudes decreases in low latitudes Tendencies for some cereal productivity Cereal productivity to to increase at mid-to-high latitudes decrease in some regions
35. Key Impacts - Coasts Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 C Increased damage from floods and storms About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year
36. Key Impacts - Health Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 C Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services
37. Arctic Impacts The annual ice mass lost from glaciers in the Gulf of Alaska has been 84 gigatons annually, about five times the average annual flow of the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon.
41. Glaciers in decline Muir Glacier taken on August 13, 1941; on the right, a photograph taken from the same vantage on August 31, 2004 Qori Kalis Glacier taken in July 1978, and on the right, a photograph taken from the same vantage in July 2004. Glacier photograph collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology. Digital media.
42. The other big problem Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO 2 between the 1700s and the 1990s While the full ecological consequences of these changes in calcification are still uncertain, it appears likely that many calcifying species will be adversely affected.