Ph.D. Seminar

1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON DRY LAND AGRICULTURE AND MITIGATION
STRATEGIES
Members
Dr. C. Chinnusamy, Professor and Head, DFM
Dr. K. Rajendran, Professor (Agronomy)
Dr. R. Shanmugasundaram, Professor (SS&AC)
Dr. U. Sivakumar, Professor (Agrl. Microbiology)

2. OUTLINE OF SEMINAR
 Introduction
 Climate change - climate trend in India
 Dry land scenario - world - India
 Impacts of climate change on dry land crops
 Adaptation and mitigation strategies
 Conclusions

3. Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and
provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian
population.
The agricultural sector represents 35% of India’s Gross National
Product (GNP) and as such plays a crucial role in the country’s
development. Food grain production quadrupled during the post-
independence era; this growth is projected to continue.
The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in
local climates rather than in global climate patterns.
While the magnitude of climate change impact varies greatly by
region.
Climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity
and shifting crop patterns.
Introductio
n

4.  Large country with diverse climate
 Two thirds area rain dependent
 High monsoon dependency
 Diverse seasons, crops and farming
systems
 Close link between climate and water
resources
 Small holdings, poor coping
mechanisms and low penetration of
risk management
Why Indian Agriculture
vulnerable to climate change ?

5. Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change – district
Level Assessment
Source: Vulnerability Atlas
(www.nicra-icar.in)
Source: Vulnerability Atlas
(www.nicra-icar.in)
Strategic Research productStrategic Research product

6. Climate change ???
 According to IPCC (2007) “Climate change refers to a statistically
significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its
Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or
longer)”
 climatic change affect agriculture in several ways such as
quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth
rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture
availability etc.
 Climate change will probably increase the risk of food insecurity
for, South America may lose 1–21%, Africa 1–18%, Europe 11–
17%, and India 20–40%.

7. (IPCC, 2007)

8. The benchmark (400ppm) we crossed
recently, made headlines around the world.
But there's actually another number, 450
ppm, that is real cause for alarm among
scientists and policy experts.
That's because 450ppm of CO2 in the
atmosphere likely would push the world past
2 degrees of warming.
More CO2 =means warmer temperatures

9. Temperature trends
• The year 2009 was the warmest year on record since 1901 (+0.91°C
above the normal 26.64°C).
• The other warmer years on the record in order are 2002, 2006, 2003,
2007, 2004, 1998,1941,1999,1958, 2001, 1987 and 2005.
(Kumar, 2009)

10. (Kumar et al., 2010)
Trends and magnitude of change in annual
rainfall (% of mean/100 years)
• Punjab, Haryana,
South East
Peninsular India
and Karnataka
witnessed
increasing trend
• Chhattisgarh,
Vidarbha and East
MP experienced a
decreasing trend

11. Trends and magnitude of changes in annual
rainfall (% of mean/100 years) for
different regions
(Kumar et al., 2010)
• West Central
India shows a
decreasing trend
• Peninsular India
witnessed an
increasing trend

12. Incidences of natural
calamities due to
climate change

13. Kashmir flood (2014)
Latur Earthquake (1993)
The Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004)
Uttarakhand Flash Floods (2013)
Extreme Events
Nepal Earthquake (2015)

14. Odisha Super-cyclone 2013
Land slides in Male, Pune (2014)

15. Year/
Scenarios
Season Temperature change (0
C) Rainfall Change (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
1.0
1.08
0.87
1.41
1.54
1.17
2.16
-1.95
1.81
5.97
4.36
5.10
2050s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
2.23
2.54
1.81
2.87
3.18
2.37
5.36
-9.92
7.18
9.34
3.82
10.52
2080s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
3.53
4.14
2.91
5.55
6.31
4.62
7.48
-24.83
10.10
9.90
4.50
15.18
Climate Change Projections for India
(Lal et al., 2001)

16. Impact of climate change in Dry land
Agriculture

17. Global Scenario of dry
farming
Dry land farming (Keane et al. 2009)
41.3% of the earth’s surface
 72% in developing countries
In India - 228 m ha of area falls under dryland,
i.e., arid, semi-arid and dry subhumid.
Rainfed farming (Asha et al. 2012)
Globally 80 per cent
Generates 65 to 70 per cent staple foods
India ranks first- world - 162 m ha
40 per cent of the national food basket
55 % rice, 91 % coarse grains, 90 % pulses, 85
% oilseeds & 65 % cotton.

18. Indian Agriculture
 Net cultivated land in India 143 M ha area
 Highly populated: 324 person/km2
 85 M ha (68%) is rainfed / dryland producing
– 44% country’s food requirements
– supporting 40% of human and 60% of livestock
 115 M farm holders, 80% small and marginal
 23% of the GDP comes from agriculture
• 40% of farmers would move out given a chance

19. Total arable area 143.8 mha
Irrigated area 43.8 mha (30.5%)
Rainfed area 65.5 mha (45.5%)
Dryland area 34.5 mha (23.9%)
Anonymous 2012
In North-West Himalayan regions 81% is under rainfed

20. Major dryland crops
Crop % Area
Sorghum 93
Pearlmillet 94
Corn 79
Pulses 87
Oilseeds 76
Cotton 64
Tobacco 59
Others 49
FAO, 2000
 Drought and water scarcity is a
constant threat
 Stubborn poverty & food
insecurity
 Low rainwater use efficiency, low
crop productivity & high instability
 Land degradation & declining soil
health
 Acute fodder shortage and poor
livestock productivity
Challenge of dry land
agriculture

21. Regions States % Rainfed area
(range)
Cold arid Northern
States
Jammu & Kashmir, Uttaranchal
and Himachal Pradesh,
60-81
Arid Western States Rajasthan, Gujarat 66-68
Semi arid to arid Central
& Southern States
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
Tamil Nadu
76-82
Sub humid to humid
Eastern States
Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal
33-73
Humid to Per humid
North Eastern States
Assam & North Eastern Hill
States
upto 90%
Rainfed area in IndiaRainfed area in India – (85 m
ha)
(68.5 m ha fully rainfed & 16.5m ha partial rainfed)
Paul (1995)

22. Region Taluk / District Annual
rainfall (mm)
Northwest Dhammpmi Dt., Taluks of Omalur, 844
Attur, Rasipuram Sankagiri in Salem Dt. 842
Parts of Tirupattur and Vellore Taluks 900
Western Palladam, Kangeyam Dharapuram
Udumalpet Coimbatore taluks.
711
717
East central Parts of Tiruchi, Pudukkottai, Madurai and
Dindugul Dts.
876
Southern Tirunelveli Dt. 940
Thoothukudi Dt. 677
Virudunagar Dt. 817
Ramanathapuram Dt. 819
Sivagangai Dt. 910
Dry farming Regions of Tamil
Nadu

23. Erratic Rainfall, Droughts,
Inadequate
Irrigation Infrastructure High Risk
Land Degradation, Poor
Soil Fertility
Less Investment in
Inputs
Small Land Holdings,
Poor Farmers
Lower Credit off take
Low Productivity
Under developed Market
Infrastructure, Poor Post
Harvest Management
Poor Socio-Economic
growth, Illiteracy,
Poverty
High Risk-Low Yield
Business
Dry land
farming
N
A
T
U
R
A
L
S
O
C
I
O
E
C
O
N
O
M
I
C

24. Small holding
Uncertain soil moisture & Degraded land
Soil crusting
Nutrient deficiency
LIMITATIONS IN DRY LAND
ECOSYSTEM…….
Migration

25. Potential Impact of climate change on crops
• Productivity of most cereals would decrease due to increase
in temperature, CO2 and decrease in water availability
• A projected loss of 10-40% in crop production by 2100
• 1o
C increase in temperature may reduce yields of major food
crops by 3-7%. Much greater losses at higher temperatures
with longer duration. Greater loss expected in rabi
• Length of growing period in rainfed areas is likely to reduce,
especially in peninsular regions
• Increased climatic extremes - likely to increase production
variability
• Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat,
legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%

26. Impact of climate change on length of
growing period
• Area under 150-180
days LGP will reduce
in the country in the
projected climate
change scenarios
• LGP rainfed areas is
likely to reduce,
especially in
peninsular regions
and south India
(NPCC, 2008)

27. Impacts observed through modeling/
experimentation
• Kharif crops to be impacted more by rainfall variability while
rabi crops by minimum temperature
• Wheat is likely to be negatively impacted in rabi due to terminal
heat stress
• Rice to be impacted both by temperature and water availability
• Legume crops like soybean and groundnut are likely to be
benefited due to increased temperature/CO2 if water availability
is not limited
• More opportunities for rain water harvesting due to high
intensity rainfall but greater loss of top soil due to erosion

28. Impact of droughts on Indian food grains production from 1950-51 to
2007-’08
(Rao et al., 2008)

29. Crop % loss of normal yield
Sorghum 43.03
Maize 14.09
Groundnut 34.09
Wheat 48.68
Onion 29.56
Cotton 59.96
Effect of drought on rainfed crop yield in Dharwad district
Asha Latha et al., (2012)

30. Yield reduction by drought in field crops
Crop Growth stage Yield
reduction
References
Rice Reproductive 48–94% Lafitte et al. (2007)
Rice Grain filling 60% Basnayake et al. (2006)
Maize Vegetative 25–60% Atteya et al. (2003)
Maize Reproductive 63–87% Kamara et al. (2003)
Maize Grain filling 79–81% Monneveux et al. (2005)
Cowpea Reproductive 60–11% Ogbonnaya et al. (2003)
Sunflower Reproductive 60% Mazahery et al. (2003)
Pigeonpea Reproductive 40–55% Nam et al. (2001)
Chickpea Reproductive 45–69% Nayyar et al. (2006)

31.  Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2o
C in
temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in
the high yield areas; and a 0.5o
C increase in winter temperature
would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.
 Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in
temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.
 Aggarwal et al. (2002) – on basis of recent climate change scenarios
estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.

32. Crop Potential**
grain yield
kg ha 1‐
CO2 effect
on yield
Rainfall
effect on
yield
Temperature
effect on
yield
CC* effect
on yield
Sorghum 2753 n/a ‐6% ‐16% ‐22%
Maize 2125 n/a ‐8% ‐16% ‐25%
Groundnut 1979 +8% ‐7% ‐31% ‐30%
Pigeonpea 1230 +6% ‐7% ‐3% ‐8%
• Climate change – combined effects of increased temperature and reduced
rainfall, and increased CO2 in the case of groundnut and pigeonpea, and of
increased temperature and rainfall in the case of sorghum and maize
** Potential yield of the current rainfall, CO2, temperature and radiation
environment averaged over 50 seasons, with no nutrient, pest or disease
constraints
Impact of climate change on average potential grain yield
of sorghum, maize, groundnut and pigeon pea
(Dimes et al., 2008)

33. crop
Baseline Climate Change
Total
biomass
(kg ha 1‐
)
Duration
(d)
In crop‐
rain
(mm)
WUE*
(kg ha 1‐
mm 1‐
)
Total
biomass
(kg ha 1‐
)
Duration
(d)
In crop‐
rain
(mm)
WUE*
(kg ha 1‐
mm 1‐
)
Sorghum 6398 107 396 6.7
4663
(27%)
88 320 6.7
Maize 6403 129 433 4.3
4747
(26 %)
107 352 3.9
Groundnut 4628 122 416 4.5
3782
(18 %)
106 345 3.8
Pigeon
pea
4445 165 463 2.3
4288
(3.5 %)
136 397 2.4
(Dimes et al., 2008)
*WUE was calculated as kg of grain / (soil water at sowing – soil water at
harvest + in crop rainfall)‐
Impact of the climate change on sorghum,
maize, groundnut and pigeon pea

34. Effect of elevated temperature on yield attributes of groundnut crop
(NPCC, 2010)

35. Impact of climate change on mustard yield
(Boomiraj et al., 2010)

36. Adaptation and mitigation
strategies
1. Genetics & Breeding
and Biotechnology
2. Conservation
Agriculture
3. Watershed 4. Improved Agronomic Practices

37. Adaptation options
 Altered agronomy of crops
 Altering dates of planting &
spacing
 Alternate crops or cultivars
 Change in cropping system
Conservation agriculture
 Zero tillage/direct seeding
 Reduction in summer fallow
 Conservation of soil moisture
 Crop diversification
 Forage in rotations
Integrated farming system
Integrated nutrient management
Improved land use & NRM policies
Risk management- early warning
systems and crop insurances
Mitigation options
 Afforestation
 Watershed management
 Organic agriculture
 Changing land use- Horticulture,
Agroforestry, Silviculture
 Integrated farming system
Use of nitrification inhibitors and
fertilizers placement practices
 Improved management of livestock
population
 Feed and fodder bank
 Solar power

38. 1. Genetics & Breeding and
Biotechnology
 Conversion of C3 plants to C4 plants
 Transfer of gene from legume to non-legume crops
 Need to develop extreme conditions (heat, drought) tolerant
crops and cultivars
 Develop climate ready crops (defining new Ideotypes)
 Need to develop new breeds (or poultry birds)- tolerant to harsh
conditions (Cold/ heat waves)
 Selection and breeding of high yielding rice cultivars with low
methane emission potential
 Breeding for new animals breeds – less methane emission
 Transgenic development for biotic and abiotic stress

39. 2. Conservation Agriculture
Minimum soil disturbance -
No-till/minimum till
Rational soil cover- Residue
management
Efficient crop rotations- Crop
diversification
Immediate & Long-term benefit to farmer

40. an alternate system, can arrest resource degradation and
can enhance productivity
 Conserve rainwater, control soil loss and achieve better
input use efficiency in rainfed areas
 Reduce production costs and minimize risks
 Improve energy use efficiency
 Save on water, labour and fuel
 Improve productivity and profitability
 Contribute to climate change mitigation

41. Treatments Seed yield (Kg ha-1
) Straw yield (Kg ha-1
)
Tillage
Minimum
tillage
921 2306
Reduced tillage 969 2355
Conventional
tillage
948 2383
Mulching
No mulch 835 1941
Rice straw
mulch
1089 2518
Water hyacinth
mulch
998 2237
Black polythene
mulch
1164 2697
(Mondal et al., 2008)
Effect of tillage and mulching on Seed and straw
yield of mustard

42. Effect of tillage and legume mulching on
productivity of wheat
Treatment Grain yield
(t ha-1
)
Tillage
Conventional 2.48
Minimum 2.40
CD (P=0.05) NS
Legume mulching
Control 2.11
Sunhemp (S) 2.46
Leucaena (L) 2.45
Sunhemp + Leucaena 2.68
(Sharma et al., 2010)

43. Product Pre-project
(1974-75)
During project
(1975-86)
Runoff (%) 60 46
Soil loss
(t ha-1
annum-1
)
11 4.5
Dependency on
forest cover (%)
60 46
Animal rearing
method
Heavily grazing Partially grazing
(Tripathi and Sharda,
Protection impacts of watershed management
programme at Fakot
3. Watershed
management

44. Product Pre-project
(1974-75)
During project
(1975-86)
Food crops (t) 88.2 584.3
Fruit (t) Neg. 196.2
Milk (‘000 l) 56.6 237.6
income from
floriculture (‘000 Rs.)
Nil 120.0
Income from sale of
cash crops (‘000 Rs.)
6.5 202.5
(Tripathi and Sharda,
2011)
Production impacts of watershed management
programme at Fakot
* Community diversified into floriculture in 1994

45. Farm PondCheck dam
Diversion drain Borewell recharge pit
Soil & water conservation in dry
land

46. Rainwater harvesting and efficient use
Low water requiring crops / livestock
Irrigation at critical stages
Alternate furrow irrigation
Piped irrigation
Micro irrigation – Sprinkler and drip
Roof water harvesting and reuse

47. Rainwater harvesting and
efficient utilization in
dry land
Effect of supplemental irrigation through farm
pond on yield and economics of soybean during
2014
Treatments Yield (kg ha-1
) % incr-
ease in
yield
RWUE
(kg ha-1
mm-1
)
Net returns
(Rs ha-1
)
B:C
ratioWith
irriga-
tion
With-
out
Irriga-
tion
T1 (One protective
irrigation)
474 422 12.32 0.83 543 1.03
T2 (Two
protective
irrigation)
1021 422 141.94 1.79 20089 2.20
Akola, Maharashtra

48. 4. Improved Agronomic
Practices
There are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector can
undertake to cope with future climate change.
These include:
– Changing planting dates
– Planting different varieties or crop species
– Development and promotion of alternative crops
– Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties
– Improved crop residue and weed management
– More use of water harvesting techniques
– Better pest and disease control for crops
– Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems
(Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching)

49.  Several farming practices and technologies can reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and prevent climate change by enhancing carbon storage in soils;
 Preserving existing soil carbon; and reducing carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide emissions.
 Reducing use of fertilisers: By applying only the amount of fertiliser that the
crop needs, precisely and at the right time, a tremendous amount of
greenhouse gas releases can be prevented.
 At the same time, it would also reduce other environmental disasters such as
dangerous algal blooms in our lakes and oceans worldwide.

50.  Protecting the soil: By increasing the carbon content through a
variety of measures such as cover crops, agricultural soils can be
turned into carbon sinks and can greatly reduce agriculture’s
contribution to climate change.
 Land restoration and land use changes: Modifications to grazing
practices, such as implementing rotational grazing and seasonal use
of rangelands. Converting marginal cropland to trees or grass
maximizes carbon storage.
 Methane should be used: Methane can be used to fuel a variety of
on-farm applications, as well as to generate electricity.

51. Crops Drought Flood/ water
submergence
Salt tolerant
Rice Sahbhagi Dhan
Shusk Samrat
Swarna-sub 1
Bhuthnath
Scuba rice
IR 72076,
Usar Dhan-3
Wheat HT1531, HD2888 - -
Sorghum M 35-1, selection-3 - -
Pearlmillet HHB 216 - -
Gram BGD 128 - -
Mustard - - -
Groundnut Jun 27, PBS 11058,
Girnar 3,BAU-19
- -
Cultivars tolerant to extreme conditions
(ICAR Annual report, 2010-11 and STRASA, 2011)

52. Contingency Resilient PracticesContingency Resilient Practices

53. AICRPDA
Centre
Crop Treatment Yield
(kg/ha)
Net
returns
(Rs/ha)
RWUE
(kg/ha-
mm)
Bengaluru
(RF Deficit 10 %
in Aug & 37 % in
Sep)
Finger
millet
Thiourea @ 250 g/ha
( in Sep)
KCl @ 2% (during dry spell)
Water spray (during dry spell)
4000
3700
3650
80200
74120
72659
5.5
5.1
5.0
Foliar sprays to mitigate Midseason/ Terminal drought
Region Event Crop Intervention Impact
Southern
zone of TN
Terminal
drought
Sorghum BBF & foliar spray of
KCl @ 1%
10-12% higher
yield
Greengram Short duration var. CO-
8 + foliar spray of TNAU
pulse wonder @ 2
kg/acre
12-15% higher
yield

54. For areas receiving <500 mm rainfall
Linking arable cropping with animal husbandry.
Adoption of arable cropping (limited to millet and pulses), arid-
horticulture agroforestry, horti-pasture and silvi-pasture systems.
Growing drought-tolerant perennial tree species for fodder, fruit and
fuel.
Adopting efficient methods of irrigation for higher productivity.
Efficient management of rangelands and common grazing lands, with
improved grasses, reseeding techniques and creating fodder banks.
Small farm mechanization
Strategies for different rainfall events

55. For areas receiving 500-750 mm rainfall
 Energy rich crops like oilseeds and pulses in intercropping
systems.
 Emphasis on high value crops (fruits, medicinal, aromatic, dyes,
pesticide yielding) and high tech-agriculture (drip irrigation,
processing, extraction, value addition).
 Stressing in situ moisture conservation, rainwater harvesting and
effective recycling and off-season tillage in a watershed approach.
 Mounting efficient alternate land use systems with agriculture-
forest-pasture-livestock, based on land capability criteria.
 Afforestation in highly degraded / wastelands.
 Adoption of seed village concept for self-sufficiency in seeds of
improved varieties.
 Small farm mechanization.

56. For areas receiving 750-1050 mm rainfall
 Developing aquaculture in high rainfall, double cropped
regions with rationalization of area under rice.
 Use of improved crop varieties of maize, soybean, groundnut,
sorghum, pigeonpea, cotton and other crops in intercropping
and double cropping wherever possible to increase cropping
intensity.
 Rainwater harvesting / conservation including ground water
recharge.
 Improving sustainability of rice-wheat cropping system in the
Gangetic plains.
 Rehabilitation of degraded lands through perennial vegetation.

57. Land use system C Sequestered /unit quantity
of biomass (kg kg-1
)
Carbon sequestration
(t ha-1
yr-1
)
Albizia lebbeck
(Agrisilviculture)
0.458 2.98
Acacia nilotica
(Silvipasture)
0.409 0.69
Tamarindus indica
(Agri-silvi-horti
system)
0.393 0.44
Luecaena
leucocephala
0.445 7.00
Acacia albida 0.438 0.85
Azadirachta indica 0.418 0.80
Carbon sequestration under different
land use systems
(Reddy et al., 2009)

58. Yield and water use in mustard as influence by sowing
date under rainfed conditions
Treatment Yield (t ha-1
) Consumptive use
(mm)
WUE(kg ha-1
mm-1
)
Sowing date
25th
October 1.98 220.4 8.69
5th
November 1.69 212.3 7.80
CD (P=0.05) 0.06 21.7 0.79
(IARI annual report, 2009)

59. Grain yield of sorghum+ pigeonpea as influence by
different conservation measures
Treatment Grain yield (t ha-1
)
Sorghum Pigeonpea S E Y
Control 2.74 0.039 3.20
Ridge and furrow 3.53 0.077 3.87
Conservation furrow(0.9m) 3.07 0.120 3.47
Bed furrow (0.9 m) 3.20 0.054 3.38
Conservation furrow(1.35m) 3.19 0.056 3.37
Bed furrow (1.35m) 3.22 0.060 3.40
SEm+ 0.14 0.009 -
CD (P=0.05) 0.40 0.021 -
(Reddy et al., 2010)

60. System Gross
return
(Rs/ha)
Expenditure
(Rs/ha)
Net income
(Rs/ha)
Employment
(M.D./ha/yr
Crop+ dairy+ Poultry+
Mushroom
203044 84682 118362 154
Crop cultivation only 101742 26202 75540 64
Additional benefit 101302 58480 42822 90
Integrated farming system
(Sharma et al., 2007)

61. 5. SHELTERBELT & ROADSIDE
PLANTATION Reduces wind speed by 20-30%
 Wind erosion by 50%
 Conserves soil moisture & nutrients
 Pearl millet yield 6.8 q ha-1
in shelterbelt & 4.8 q ha-1
in without
shelterbelt
Azadirachta indica – Acacia tortilis

62. Feed and Fodder Bank for Drought Mitigation
Arid zone faces fodder scarcity, poor quality & high transportation cost
The Feed Block Machine helps reducing volume to one-third
Feed block (20x20x5 cm ) are made out of crop residues, concentrates, minerals
6. Livestock
Management

63. Conclusion
s: Impact of climate change on dry land agriculture will be one of
the major deciding factors influencing the future food security of
mankind on the earth.
 Understanding the weather changes over a period of time and
adjusting the management practices towards achieving better
harvest is a challenge to the growth of agricultural sectors.
 Adaptation strategies can help to minimize negative impacts to
some extent where as mitigation options can help in long run, but
 There are ‘n’ number of solutions need to be standardized in the
coming years
 These need research and policy support