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DSD-INT 2019 Climate Change Service - Indicators for Global Agriculture - de Wit

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Presentation by Allard de Wit, Wageningen University, at the Data Science Symposium, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Thursday, 14 November 2019, Delft.

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DSD-INT 2019 Climate Change Service - Indicators for Global Agriculture - de Wit

  1. 1. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture Allard de Wit, C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR (cds.)climate.copernicus.eu
  2. 2. Climate Change • Probably the most climate dependent sector • Local production fluctuates ~25%, globally <3%: – trade / relief to balance surpluses and shortage – Indicators on crop productivity, water use, climate conditions are required for monitoring, policy, farmer support • SIS Global Agriculture: – Climate services in support of decision-making in agriculture sector – Support SDGs by providing credible and legitimate agro- climatic data products A g r i c u l t u r e
  3. 3. Climate Change S t r u c t u r e o f S I S G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e 3
  4. 4. Climate Change G l o b a l A g r i c u l t u r e D a t a p r o d u c t s 1. Agro-climatic indicators Growing degree days, huglin index, cold/heat stress days, ... 2. Climate forcing data for crop models based on ERA5: AgERA5 Daily time steps, downscaled, bias corrected 3. Climate enhanced Earth Observation based indicators Crop-specific biomass & yield, Actual evapotranspiration 4. Water based indicators Soil moisture, surface / groundwater availability, river discharge, water stress Global data products in support of public/private decision making and research:
  5. 5. Climate Change O u r t e a m 5
  6. 6. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture SHOW CASES data stream 1 climate indicators
  7. 7. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 1 : w h e a t s o y d o u b l e c r o p p i n g Many regions interest in double cropping of winter wheat followed by soybean • mid west USA, Argentina, Europe, etc.
  8. 8. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 1 : w h e a t s o y d o u b l e c r o p p i n g Many regions interest in double cropping of winter wheat followed by soybean • mid west USA, Argentina, Europe, etc.
  9. 9. Guidance Climate Indicators for Agriculture Showcases About | Disclaimer | Contact Maps & graphs 1 Theme 3 Time horizon 4 Crop mask (current cropping areas) Near Real Time Wheat 2 Crop Indicator 1350Tsum1 (anthesis): 1000Tsum2 (maturity): 0Tbase (anthesis): 1tStart (day of yr): Real Time (ERA 5) Growing degree days Early development Late development Climate derived indicators Climate augmented EO indicators Water related indicators Download Community Login
  10. 10. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture SHOW CASES data stream 2 AgERA5
  11. 11. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : A g E R A 5 ERA5 based agricultural land product • 0.1x0.1 degree (~10 km) • Daily variables from 1979 up till 2018, possibility for near real- time product generation with a delay of ~1 week • 22 variables relevant for agricultural applications: – Temperature (avg, min, max, etc.) – Precipitation and precipitation type – Global radiation – Daily avg vapour pressure and wind speed – Relative humidity at specific times of the day
  12. 12. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R CGIAR provides 80% of germplasm to the world Argentina
  13. 13. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R 38th Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial: • 50 entries with two replications • distributed to 150 locations in 2017 • grain yield data was voluntarily reported from 78 locations • on 33 traits • primarily from Less Developed Countries • mean grain yield of 5.32 t/ha (1.1 to 10.6 t/ha) ‫لرستان‬ ‫استان‬ ،‫آباد‬ ‫خرم‬ Khorramabad, Iran, ARC
  14. 14. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R ،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬ Al Gemizah, Egypte Gemmeiza ARC 38th Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial: • distributed to 150 locations in 2017 • trial climate data missing • used coarse data so far (CRU, NASA)
  15. 15. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R ،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬ Al Gemizah, Egypte Gemmeiza ARC Daily climate data AgERA5 for: • Classification of environments • New traits • Understanding environmental effects
  16. 16. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R ،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬ Al Gemizah, Egypte Gemmeiza ARC Daily climate data AgERA5 for: • Classification of environments • New traits • Understanding environmental effects
  17. 17. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R Rust tracking and early warning systems • need granular climate data on humidity • indicator and thresholds to be developed
  18. 18. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture SHOW CASES data stream 3 climate enhanced EO data
  19. 19. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A Soybean plant logistics • where? • when? • how much?
  20. 20. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A Soybean plant logistics • where? • when? • how much? Grain Yield (kg/ha) Failed crop Super crop 2017 above normal yield late ripening Soybean plant logistics • how much?
  21. 21. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A Grain Yield (kg/ha) Failed crop Super crop Soybean plant logistics • how much soy?
  22. 22. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A Actual ET (mm/dek) super crop desiccated crop 2017 above average water use Soybean farm logistics • how much water
  23. 23. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture SHOW CASES data stream 4 water data for agriculture
  24. 24. Climate Change S H O W C A S E 4 : W A T E R I N D I C A T O R S Climate based water indicators • surface water (soil moisture, discharge, ET, etc.) • ground water • water stress • historic • seasonal forecasts • climate projections • 5” resolution (10km)
  25. 25. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e Climate Change Indicators for Global Agriculture Allard de Wit, C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR climate.copernicus.eu Data availability: http://global-agriculture.copernicus-climate.eu/

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