Climate Change:a threat to coffee small-holders andour morning cup of coffee?Jeremy Haggar, Natural Resource Institute, UK
Coffee and climate change in the news
Mean Temperature(°C) for the Months May-October                                                   Lat 15N Lon 91W (Guatema...
What do coffee producers say is happening?         50         45         40         35         30         25         20   ...
Impact of                            Hurricane Stan                            in Guatemala                            200...
Greater climate variability is what most     producers are currently experiencing     - national production vs rainfall in...
Economic impact of production variations   on small producers in Nicaragua                             2005-06          20...
The climatechange predictionsfor coffee regions- Central Americamuch drier- Colombia, SBrazil wetter- East Africawetter?- ...
Brazil – Large changes in distribution of coffeeSource: Pinto, Assad
Expected Changes for Coffee in BrazilEstimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of SaoPaulo, rela...
Projections for Kenya  CIAT 2010   Temperature rise of 2.2 – 2.4oC by 2050   Rainfall increase of 135 – 205 mm by 2050  ...
Changes coffee suitability in Kenya     (CIAT for Sangana PPP)
Green increase insuitabilityOrange-red loss ofsuitability for coffee
Current and future coffee production suitability by              altitude for Nicaragua
Analysis of vulnerability to climate change of small-holders                                                       CIAT/CA...
What may happen to coffee in           Central America          Likely consequences           Elimination of low-altitude...
Does coffee production                   also contribute to climate                   change?                   Of 59g CO2...
Coffee Carbon FootprintingComparison of carbon footprint vs. C sequestered in 9 years
3. What are our options to adapt to         climate change?
More efficient use of water ?Need to intensify reduction in water use and management of contamination from wet milling    ...
Developing more resilient production systems Gradual renovation of the  coffee plantation Developing appropriate shade  ...
The benefits of shade Shaded coffee landscapes less  vulnerable to effects of excess  rainfall and landslides Introducti...
Potential of new coffee varietiesNew hybrids between traditional varieties and Ethiopian landraces  (CIRAD/PROMECAFE/CATIE...
Chemical (cup)characteristicsof hybrids areless sensitive toaltitude(temperature)than traditionalvarietiesBertrand 2006
www.AdapCC.orgSupport to producers…       Develop examples with pilot groups to reinforce their capacity        to confro...
Other industry initiatives to combat climate                    change PPP GIZ, Neumann                   Climate friendl...
And what for our 3 coffees?Guatemala Direct trade Produced by Mam ethnic group in Hueheutenango Union Coffee roasters – ...
And what for our 3 coffees?Kenyan Fairtrade African countries continue to  loose coffee producers Considerable need to i...
And what for our 3 coffees?Brazilian Naturals Vast majority of coffee beans  processed via dry method Coffee is produced...
And humanities capacity to adapt
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Climate change and your cup of coffee

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In honour of Climate Week Jeremy Haggar, Head of the Agriculture, Health and Environment Department from the Natural Resources Institute at the University of Greenwich hosted an interesting lecture on 'Climate Change: a threat to coffee small-holders and our morning cup of coffee?'

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Climate change and your cup of coffee

  1. 1. Climate Change:a threat to coffee small-holders andour morning cup of coffee?Jeremy Haggar, Natural Resource Institute, UK
  2. 2. Coffee and climate change in the news
  3. 3. Mean Temperature(°C) for the Months May-October Lat 15N Lon 91W (Guatemala) 1.40Deviation from average 61-90 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Average = 25.84 °C -0.20 1960 1970 1980 1990 Std. Dev.= ± 0.31 °C -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 YearTemperature change for Atitlan, Guatemala:Note the 1oC rise is equivalent to 150m in altitude orthe difference between a normal good coffee and a gourmet coffee
  4. 4. What do coffee producers say is happening? 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Rainfall is 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rainfall has normal substantially changed Brazil Tanzania Uganda/CI Kenya Guatemala Vietnam  The majority of coffee farmers considered that the climate has changed, with more hot days, changes in the rainfall patterns becoming more unpredictable with rainfall erratic and in general no rainfall.  This had led to a decline in yields, and more pests and diseases. Many farmers were introducing more shade to the coffee plantations, but some were reducing the area in coffee.
  5. 5. Impact of Hurricane Stan in Guatemala 2005-La Niña 20% coffee harvest lost on Pacific slope of Guatemala Lost production from coops estimated at $4 million
  6. 6. Greater climate variability is what most producers are currently experiencing - national production vs rainfall in NicaraguaRainfall mm / 1000s sacks of coffee 2,500 La Niña La Niña El Niño 2,000 Production El Niño 1,500 Rainfall 1,000 Average rain 1971-2000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  7. 7. Economic impact of production variations on small producers in Nicaragua 2005-06 2006-07100lb sacks green coffee 41 17.5US$ income 3310 1424Production cost US$ 930 771Net income US$ 2380 653Average farm size 2 ha of coffeeOnce again farmers are falling into debt,cannot afford to send their kids to school,nor renovate their coffee plantations
  8. 8. The climatechange predictionsfor coffee regions- Central Americamuch drier- Colombia, SBrazil wetter- East Africawetter?- SE Asia moreseasonal
  9. 9. Brazil – Large changes in distribution of coffeeSource: Pinto, Assad
  10. 10. Expected Changes for Coffee in BrazilEstimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of SaoPaulo, relative to values from 2003:Estimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of MinasGerais, relative to values from 2003
  11. 11. Projections for Kenya CIAT 2010  Temperature rise of 2.2 – 2.4oC by 2050  Rainfall increase of 135 – 205 mm by 2050 Current 2050Lower altitudinal limit masl 1000 1400Upper altitudinal limit masl 2100 2300
  12. 12. Changes coffee suitability in Kenya (CIAT for Sangana PPP)
  13. 13. Green increase insuitabilityOrange-red loss ofsuitability for coffee
  14. 14. Current and future coffee production suitability by altitude for Nicaragua
  15. 15. Analysis of vulnerability to climate change of small-holders CIAT/CATIE
  16. 16. What may happen to coffee in Central America Likely consequences  Elimination of low-altitude coffee also eliminate environmental services from shaded coffee  Expansion of coffee at high altitude will compete with forest and conservation of water resources
  17. 17. Does coffee production also contribute to climate change? Of 59g CO2 emissions per cup, PCF-Tchibo study 44% from agrochemicals on- farm Methods do not contemplate sinks e.g. shade trees Can we unlock the carbon stocks in shaded coffee and applying them to the carbon footprint of a cup of coffee36 - 70 t C / ha Can we make coffee carbon neutral?
  18. 18. Coffee Carbon FootprintingComparison of carbon footprint vs. C sequestered in 9 years
  19. 19. 3. What are our options to adapt to climate change?
  20. 20. More efficient use of water ?Need to intensify reduction in water use and management of contamination from wet milling Some areas may introduce irrigation but in others water for irrigation will become limiting
  21. 21. Developing more resilient production systems Gradual renovation of the coffee plantation Developing appropriate shade levels and types Building soil fertility Soil and water conservation Diversifying income Past-future yield variation 800 lbs green coffee per 600 acre 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year
  22. 22. The benefits of shade Shaded coffee landscapes less vulnerable to effects of excess rainfall and landslides Introduction or increase in shade at high altitudes But there are limits to what shade can do
  23. 23. Potential of new coffee varietiesNew hybrids between traditional varieties and Ethiopian landraces (CIRAD/PROMECAFE/CATIE):Possibly greater resistance Increased cup quality at lowerto drought altitudes/higher temperatures
  24. 24. Chemical (cup)characteristicsof hybrids areless sensitive toaltitude(temperature)than traditionalvarietiesBertrand 2006
  25. 25. www.AdapCC.orgSupport to producers…  Develop examples with pilot groups to reinforce their capacity to confront the impacts of climate change  Improve their access to technical and financial mechanismsExpected Results… Detailed information about the climate impacts and risks to coffee production Joint vision of the measures to confront risks Methods to identify adaptation strategies Options for long term financial security Network of institutions and producers to exchange experiences
  26. 26. Other industry initiatives to combat climate change PPP GIZ, Neumann Climate friendly standards Coffee Group, Tchibo etc Rainforest Alliance and 4C  Invest in adaptation climate modules capacity in Guatemala, Brazil, Tanzania and  Develop climate adaptation Vietnam and mitigation plans  Reduce GHG emissions Coffee Under Pressure  Sustainable production Green Mountain Coffee practices for resilience Roasters, CRS, CIAT  Preparedness for natural  Model of impacts and disasters diversification options  Socioeconomic livelihoods and institutional adaptation capacity
  27. 27. And what for our 3 coffees?Guatemala Direct trade Produced by Mam ethnic group in Hueheutenango Union Coffee roasters – one of UK speciality coffee companies Very high altitude production may even expand with climate change
  28. 28. And what for our 3 coffees?Kenyan Fairtrade African countries continue to loose coffee producers Considerable need to invest in production and organization for better market access – so Fairtrade is critical With climate change highest altitude prooducers will survive but lower altitude leave production Buyers say Kenyan coffee is loosing it’s distinctive blackcurrant flavour – so the coffee may not be the same
  29. 29. And what for our 3 coffees?Brazilian Naturals Vast majority of coffee beans processed via dry method Coffee is produced under sun without shade trees highly technified with mechanical harvesting Major component of most Italian style coffee blends e.g. LavAzza Major shift in coffee producing areas moving south
  30. 30. And humanities capacity to adapt

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