The document provides an update on the tower market and small cell development. It discusses how small cells will account for 80% of future wireless infrastructure buildout as carriers focus on adding network capacity. It also notes that small cell deployment is expected to drive significant growth for tower companies like Crown Castle. However, challenges remain around standardizing small cell installation processes and gaining carrier approval to share networks.
1. Tower Market Update
August 5th, 2015
San Francisco
244 Jackson, 4th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94111
Denver
2033 11th Street, Suite 6
Boulder, CO 80302
Kansas City
435 Nichols Road, Suite 200
Kansas City, MO 64112
New York
261 Madison Ave, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Boston
990 Washington, Suite 200
Dedham, MA 02026
Confidential and Proprietary
2. 1
Small Cells – Just Like, Similar To, or Nothing Like “Towers”???
The skyrocketing consumption of data over the carrier’s
networks creates the need for more and more sites, i.e. the
Cisco curve
There has been a 700% increase in mobile traffic in the last
five years, and a 12-fold increase per device in data usage
The next wave of buildout will be 20% macro and 80%
small cells, all for capacity
Crown is incredibly bullish about small cells and believes it
is where ‘towers’ was in 1997-1998
Small cells will result in 25-33% year-to-year growth for
Crown this year
Crown expects initial tenant yields of 6%-8% to be above
20% on the second small cell tenant, illustrating the
operating leverage inherent within its model
Vertical Bridge estimates in 2012 there were 294k cell sites
and with 45% annual growth year-after-year that in 2019
there will be 4.3 million sites
Rumors about Sprint awarding a 70,000 small cell buildout
to a vendor
Just like towers weren’t originally shared by many carriers,
it is a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ neutral host small cells
becomes commonplace
While data consumption has exploded the last five years,
prices have fallen in that same time span - not sustainable
For the neutral host model to gain more traction, the cost to
deploy small cells has to decrease – 1/10th the coverage of a
macro sites currently not 1/10th the cost
Electronics are customized at every site resulting in
deployments taking more time and more money
This results in a barrier to scale which results in a barrier to
costs falling
If the installations become only 20-30% more
standardized it would drive much better efficiencies
Every jurisdiction has their own challenges to overcome,
even changing the venting in equipment boxes (from slots to
circles) is changing a ‘spec’ that was previously approved
and the carrier may have to go through a months-long new
permitting process
The process to get small cells approved is nowhere close
to being streamlined
Carriers simply don’t like giving up control of their network
My small cell / my site, my competitive advantage
No reason to share unless they have to do so
Bullish View Bearish View
3. 2
Trading Multiples for Public Tower Companies Continue to be Strong
Public Tower Companies Composite Value Compared to S&P 500
Confidential and Proprietary
Towers : AMT, CCI, SBAC
Source: CapIQ as of August 2015
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
S&P 500 Index
Towers
($ in millions, except share price)
% of Enterprise Value /
Stock Price 52-Week Equity Enterprise 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E Owned
Company 8/4/2015 High Value Value Revenue Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Towers
PUBLIC TOWER COMPANIES
American Tower $96.12 90.4% $40,833 $56,846 11.9x 10.6x 18.5x 16.6x 87,042
Crown Castle $82.00 91.7% $27,369 $38,161 10.5x 10.1x 18.2x 17.5x 40,023
SBA Communications $121.24 95.7% $15,534 $23,720 14.4x 13.3x 21.6x 19.7x 24,821
TOWER AVERAGE 92.6% 12.3x 11.4x 19.4x 17.9x 50,629
Sources: Consensus estimates and company reports
4. 3
Historical Tower Trading Multiples
EV / NTM EBITDA Tower Trading Multiples
Source: Consensus Estimates, Company Reports, CapIQ and Media Venture Partners.
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
20x
22x
24x
26x
EV/NTMEBITDAMultiple
AMT
CCI
SBAC
GSL
Average
5. 4
Recent Wireless Infrastructure Transactions
[1] Recapitalization of a portfolio of small cells and DAS assets
PURCHASE TCF PRICEPER
DATE BUYER SELLER REGION TOWERS PRICE MULTIPLE TOWER
Aug-15 PhoenixTower International T-Mobile Nationwide ~600 NA NA NA
Jul-15 Digital Bridge Extenet[1]
Nationwide NA $1,000,000,000 NA NA
May-15 Vertical Bridge CiGWireless Nationwide ~200 $143,000,000 NA $715,000
Apr-15 InSite Wireless CTI Towers Nationwide 294 NA NA NA
Apr-15 Vertical Bridge iHeart Radio Nationwide 411 $400,000,000 NA $973,236
Mar-15 American Tower Verizon Nationwide 11,448 $5,056,000,000 >21.5x $441,649
Mar-15 Vertical Bridge U.S. Cellular Midwest 595 $159,000,000 NA $267,227
Feb-15 InSite Wireless Colt & Garrett Missouri 1 NA NA NA
Feb-15 Grain Management NTELOS Virginia & West Virginia 90 $41,000,000 NA $455,556
Jan-15 PhoenixTower International Galaxy Communications New York 5 NA NA NA
Nov-14 SBA Communications MBC Communications South Carolina 3 NA NA NA
Oct-14 American Tower Tarpon Towers Nationwide ~220 NA NA NA
Oct-14 SBA Communications Kalamazoo City Commission Michigan 2 $720,000 NA $360,000
Oct-14 Crown Castle Kalamazoo City Commission Michigan 14 $3,880,000 NA $277,143
Sep-14 Vertical Bridge PT Access Network FL, NC, SC 205 NA NA NA
Aug-14 Grain Management NRJ TVSF OpCo California 1 NA NA NA
Jul-14 Tarpon Towers Gross Communications Florida 1 NA NA NA
Jul-14 SBA Communications Selective Site Consultants Kansas & Missouri 8 NA NA NA
Jul-14 SBA Communications MW Towers, LLC Kansas & Missouri 3 NA NA NA
May-14 SBA Communications Selective Site Consultants Oklahoma 2 NA NA NA
Apr-14 American Tower Richland Towers Nationwide 60 $385,900,000 NA $6,431,667
Apr-14 SBA Communications Seaway Towers New York 2 NA NA NA
Mar-14 CiGWireless T-Mobile Nationwide 7 $2,500,000 NA $357,143
Mar-14 CiGWireless Southern Tower Antenna Rental, LLC Mississippi 6 $2,694,383 NA $449,064
Feb-14 AP Wireless City of Appomattox, VA Virginia 4 $1,000,000 NA $250,000
Feb-14 SBA Communications Network Partners Alabama and Mississippi 6 NA NA NA
Jan-14 CTI Towers NTCH Texas 4 NA NA NA
Jan-14 CiGWireless T-Mobile Nationwide 3 $800,000 NA $266,667
Jan-14 Crown Castle CPS Energy Texas NA $41,000,000 NA NA
Jan-14 SBA Communications Network Management Northeast 4 NA NA NA
Jan-14 SBA Communications Commonwealth Public Broadcasting Virginia 2 NA NA NA
Jan-14 SBA Communications Grain Management Nationwide 137 NA NA NA
Dec-13 Crown Castle AT&T Nationwide 9,600 $4,830,000,000 22.5x $503,125
Oct-13 American Tower Global Tower Partners Nationwide 5,400 $4,800,000,000 18.5x $888,889
Oct-13 CTI Towers Undisclosed NC, SC, OH, PA, MS 5 NA NA NA
Sep-13 Crown Castle Greystar San Antonio, Texas 1 NA NA NA
Sep-13 TowerCo Southeast Wireless IA, MO, IL NA NA NA NA
Aug-13 SBA Communications Benton Holdings Kansas 4 NA NA NA
Jun-13 CiGWireless Clear Talk Florida 6 $1,600,000 NA $266,667
Jun-13 Grain Management Capital Telecom FL, MD, NJ, TX 11 NA NA NA
6. 5
Tower Deal Market in the U.S. is Experiencing Historically High Valuations
The potential buyer pool is extremely deep, with numerous well-financed companies pursuing tower deals
Both public and private equity-backed tower companies are eager for new acquisition opportunities
Five to ten bids being submitted for tower portfolios
Allows seller to negotiate terms other than price
Running a competitive process is typically in a seller’s best interest
Transaction environment continues to be very active
Larger tower and shared infrastructure transactions continue to grab the headlines
ExteNet announced its sale and recapitalization to Digital Bridge and StonePeak Infrastructure Fund in July 2015 at a
reported valuation of $1 billion
CiG Wireless announced the sale of its company, including over 200 towers, to Vertical Bridge for $143 million in
March 2015; Less than four months before that, Vertical Bridge announced its purchase of 595 U.S. Cellular sites for
$159 million and 411 iHeart Radio sites for $400 million in December 2014
Verizon announced the sale of over 11,500 towers to American Tower for over $5 billion in January 2015
NTELOS announced its sale of 103 towers to Grain Management for $41 million in January 2015
Few opportunities for buyers to acquire scale as larger portfolios (>150 sites) could be at least 1-2 years from selling
Smaller deals regularly completed by both public and private companies due to a lack of larger portfolios on the market
Multi-tenant broadband towers can trade for over 20x tower cash flow and a single-tenant site for more than $500,000
High valuations are being supported by:
Low cost of debt
Tower companies have significant amounts of capital to deploy and acquisitions increase scale faster than development
Credit quality of tenants
Positive wireless industry trends and fundamentals
Confidential and Proprietary
7. 6
Tenant Composition and Carrier Trends Significantly Impact Value
Tenant composition is a key value driver to buyers when pricing deals
Buyers prefer to acquire towers with revenue from the “Big Four” wireless carriers (AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile and Verizon)
Limited acquisition opportunities have forced companies eager to deploy capital to look at buying towers with diversified
revenue streams and tenants other than the Big Four carriers
Depending on how a buyer is financed, they likely receive more leverage buying revenues of the Big Four vs. other tenants
The Big Four carriers continue to upgrade equipment, expand networks and deploy new spectrum and technologies
AT&T, T-Mobile and other 700 MHz spectrum owners are required to complete their initial buildout by December 2016
The AWS-3 and Incentive Auctions will result in carriers deploying in new bands over the next five years
Verizon noted that they did not buy as much AWS-3 spectrum as it made more economic sense to densify its network
Buyers continue to heavily scrutinize sites for carrier consolidation risks
Multiple regional carriers are currently exploring strategic options, including completely existing wireless
Bluegrass Cellular, Cross Telephone, Fuego Wireless and Thumb Cellular
Several other wireless operators are beginning to evaluate their long-term interest in remaining in the wireless industry
This has led buyers to ask, “Who is next and when?”, although any major transactions may be on pause for some time
Smaller, regional carriers are likely to continue to be consolidated
Potential new entrants, such as DISH, Pacific DataVision and FirstNet, could further support tower lease-up, however they
have yet to show that they are going to be viable wireless providers
While difficult to predict ‘who’ and ‘when’, carrier consolidation is likely to continue over the next several years
Confidential and Proprietary
8. 7
With FCC Auction 96 and 97 Concluded, All Eyes Shift to the Incentive Auction
Actions & Timing
Estimated
Auction Date
Bandwidth
Allocation
Auction 96
(H-Block)
Auction 96 concluded after 167 rounds
DISH[1] won all licenses for $1.564 billion
Minimum aggregate reserve price established by DISH
Completed
Feb. 27, 2014
10 MHz
(1915–1920 /
1995–2000)
Auction 97
(AWS-3)
Auction 97 concluded in January 2015 after 341 rounds
FCC generated $44.9 billion for 1,611 licenses from 31 successful bidders
National carriers and major existing spectrum holders won the lion’s share
AT&T paid $18.2 billion for 251 licenses
DISH (and its bidding entities) paid $13.3 billion for 702 licenses
Verizon paid $10.4 billion for 181 licenses
T-Mobile paid $1.8 billion for 151 licenses
Completed
Jan. 29, 2015
65 MHz
(1695-1710 &
1755-1780 /
2155–2180)
600 MHz
(Broadcast
Incentive
Auction)
In February 2012, Congress approved a broadcast incentive auction
10-year timeline to successfully complete auction
FCC made public its initial rules for the incentive auction on May 15, 2014
Spectrum caps will likely result in bidding restrictions for certain carriers
Auction expected to utilize existing geographic areas as well as a newly
developed Partial Economic Areas (PEAs)
FCC released the Greenhill report on October 1, 2014, valuing the 100 MHz of
600 MHz licenses at $45 billion, or $1.50 per MHz Pop; after the conclusion of
AWS-3 the Greenhill increased its estimate to $2.00 per MHz Pop or $60 billion
2016 120 MHz
(TBD)
[1] DISH includes designated entity American H Block Wireless
Confidential and Proprietary
9. 8
Auction 97 Results Significantly Exceeded Past FCC Spectrum Auctions
Auction 97 raised $44.9 billion for 1,611 licenses covering over 20 billion MHz pops
Resulted in a price per MHz Pop of $2.21 across all blocks and over $2.71 for paired spectrum
Spectrum was acquired by 31 entities in Auction 97 with the primary winners being AT&T, DISH(1) and Verizon
AT&T deployed the most capital, spending nearly $18.2 billion for 251 licenses representing 6.3 billion MHz Pops
Primary target was the J Block – of which AT&T acquired 65% of the licenses covering 57% of the U.S. population for
$10.2 billion
DISH(1) acquired 720 licenses for $13.7 billion ($10.3 billion Net PWB) representing 7.9 billion MHz Pops
Acquired 99% of the MHz Pops covered by the A1 and B1 Blocks for $2.4 billion ($1.8 billion Net PWB)
Significant acquisitions in the G Block covering 68% of the U.S. population for $5.9 billion ($4.4 billion Net PWB)
Verizon acquired 181 licenses for $10.4 billion representing 3.6 billion MHz Pops and had the highest average price per
MHz Pop at $2.92
Focused primarily on the J Block, acquiring 27% of the licenses covering 38% of the U.S. population for $7.5 billion
(PWB in millions)
$0.54
$1.29
$2.21
$0.54
$1.36
$2.71
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Auction 66 Auction 73 Auction 97
Total $ / MHz Pop Paired Spectrum $ / MHz Pop Total PWB
(1) DISH includes designated entities, Northstar Wireless and SNR Wireless
Confidential and Proprietary