The document describes a trial of ICMLive flood forecasting software using integrated models of the Bournemouth and Poole areas. Real-time simulations generated alerts to predict flooding and spill events. The models were simplified to run quickly while maintaining accuracy. Data streams updated the models every 10 minutes. Examples showed alerts accurately predicted observed flooding from a major storm event. Benefits included preparedness for flooding for local councils and water companies.

1. ICMLive &
Kicking
Bryony Crickmore Richard Allitt Associates Ltd
Alex Grist Richard Allitt Associates Ltd
Thursday 5th
November 2015

2. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Contents
 Introduction
 Concept
 Process
 The Model
 Data Streams
 Examples
 After the Alert
 Summary

3. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Overview
Richard Allitt Associates (RAA) has undertaken an offline trial of
ICMLive (flood forecasting software) in partnership with Borough of
Poole, Bournemouth Borough Council and Wessex Water.
The Bournemouth & Poole fully integrated models were used to run
‘real-time’ simulations and generate alerts to forewarn of predicted
events

4. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Process

5. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Concept
 Aim of trial was to provide a ‘real-time’ model that generated forecasted
alerts for flooding from all sources and spill events
 Use Met Office “Nowcast” and “Nimrod” data alongside data provided by
Wessex Water
 Need originates from pluvial flooding problems
 Alerts would be set up that focussed upon predicted flooding and spill events

6. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Combined Model
 394,000
Population
 30,802 Nodes
 30,702 Conduits
 3 details 2D
zones
 3.9km of river
reach
 2D ponds

7. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model
 Aim of ‘real-time’ simulations = quick & accurate
predictions
 Quick AND Accurate model achieved by;
1.Model Simplification
2.Model Confidence

8. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Confidence
 Model confidence comes through comprehensive verification of
the model prior to its use in ICMLive
 Verification of the model helps to:
- Minimise chance of genuine alerts not being sent
 Both the Poole and Bournemouth models were fully verified for
the foul/combined, surface water, fluvial and pluvial runoff so
we had the necessary confidence in their performance

9. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Confidence

10. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
Faster simulations will:
1. Save Resources
2. Allow decisions to be made quicker
3. Allow more informed decisions to be made

11. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Model - Simplification
Objects
•12,050 nodes
•39 outfalls
•12,096 pipes
•1 2D zone
Bournemouth

12. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 min
Target Time = < 10 minutes

13. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Merging
 WaPUG Code of Practice states:-
Grouping a number of similar consecutive pipes together to a single pipe
(merging);
 WaPUG Code of Practice states:-
Excluding small diameter pipes from the periphery of the system
and inputting the flows to the next pipe downstream (pruning);
The Model - Pruning

14. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
 Purple lines =
Pruned links

15. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Pruning

16. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 min
Target Time = < 10 minutes

17. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 minutes
Baseline
4 minutes
Pruned & Merged

18. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
 Simplification was carried out to achieve a quick simulation time
 Areas of interest were left unaltered and only the surrounding areas
were simplified
 The result of this simplification is that the run time was drastically
reduced making them fit for purpose
 Model was check after each stage of simplification to ensure that the
confidence remained in the model

19. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Data Streams
 Spatial data:
1. Met Office Nowcast (forecast)
2. Met Office Nimrod (hindcast)
 A script downloads from the FTP site
every 10 minutes and then the ICMLive
system automatically loads the data into
the system every 10 minutes
 Scalar data:
1. Rain Gauges
2. Flow Monitors

20. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Frontal Rainfall Example
Nimrod
5 hours warning
Nowcast
02:14 – 29/10/2015
09:14 – 30/10/2015

21. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & Alerts
Alert Definition List
Action List

22. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & Alerts
Alert Definition List

23. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & Alerts
Alert Definition List

24. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & Alerts
Action List

25. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example Outputs
 Manholes predicted to
flood are listed
 The onset and the end
time of the event
included

26. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example Ouputs
 Results are displayed in the
operator client interface
 Themes have been
predefined in the manifest
 Customized the theme
 Radar rainfall has also been
set up to be displayed

27. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Storm Event 03/07/2015
 1 in 100 year storm event hit Bournemouth on the evening of the 3rd
of
July this year
 Localised event of short duration but caused a lot of damage with a
number of properties suffering from internal flooding
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/13370923.Flash_flooding_and_spectacular_skies_as_Dorset_hit_by__megastorm_/?ref=trn

28. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:00

29. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:15

30. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:30

31. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:45

32. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
00:00

33. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Forecast Rainfall (03/07)
23:00 23:15 23:30
23:4500:00

34. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Lower Gardens
 Many of the sewers and drains surcharged in this area as well as river
flooding
 Were closed for several days due to overflowing sewers
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/11327036.VIDEO__Bournemouth_s_Lower_Gardens_flooded_after
_heavy_rain/

35. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Lower Gardens
 Series simulations run from 22:00 to 00:30
 First simulation where relevant alerts issued = 23:30
 Onset time of predicted flooding:
23:15 23:30 Warning
Foul/Combined - 00:00 30 minutes
Storm - 23:45 15 minutes

36. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Flooding
Alerts generated from 23:30
simulation highlighted in green
Reported/observed flooding cases for 03/07
storm from Bournemouth Borough Council
Predicted and known events in very similar locations

37. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Flooding
 First simulation where relevant alerts issued = 23:30
 Onset time of predicted flooding:
- Range from 23:40 until 00:20
- Warning time ranging from 10 to 50 minutes
 597 flooding alerts were generated from the 23:30
simulation (356 alerts foul/combined)

38. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
 This was a ‘thunderstorm’ one of the problems is that this rainfall is not
‘predicted’ well by the current Met Office Nowcast data.
 This necessitates the need for a model to run as quickly as possible as the
predicted rainfall lead time may only be 30 mins.
Example Flooding

39. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model – ‘Parent/Child’
 Recent software development was that of the ‘Parent/Child’ arrangement
Trigger alert generated
Poole ‘Child’ Model
Triggered
Bournemouth ‘Child’ Model
Triggered
‘Parent’ Model
Trigger alert not
generated

40. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
After the Alert – Benefits
Local Councils
Accurate prediction of flood;
1. locations
2. depths
3. extents
4. Timings
Enables councils to prepare the catchment
by;
1. readying flood response teams
2. closing flood gates
3. preparing sand bags
4. warning the public

41. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
After the Alert - Benefits
Water Companies
Operational benefits
Greater control over CSO
spills
Reduce impacts by;
1.emptying storm tanks in
advance
2.controlling pumping
stations
3.operating sluice gates

42. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Summary
 ICMLive enabled us to set up a fully integrated flood forecasting
model for an urban area of 394,000 population
 Used in conjunction with Bournemouth Borough Council, The
Borough of Poole and Wessex Water
 Alerts successfully generated from the model that forecasted flood
and spill events
 Forecast data still has short comings when predicting flood and
spill events due to convective storms

43. ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Next Steps
 Use of scalar data
 Refining the alert & action lists
 Bring it online!

44. Any Questions?
@raa_ltd