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China Outbound Investment
                            Why Chinese companies are
                            coming out, and at what scale are
                            they doing so.


                            How does it affect your
                            brand/company?




                            Ricardo Ferrer
                            Asian Horizon Ltd.
                            Shanghai, 2013

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Looking back: the China Outbound landscape changed
China’s vision for its companies to become global players was spelled out in 1999 with the
“Go Global” policy - the State Council issued a new regulation which granted export tax
rebates, foreign exchange management assistance and financial support to overseas
Chinese enterprises that used raw materials, components and parts, and machinery
equipment made in China.
Chinese companies have been investing outside of China through greenfield projects and
through M&A.

                   Chinese ODI Flows (1982-2011)                                             Chinese ODI Flows (2005-2011)

 80000                                                                  80000
 70000                                                                  70000
 60000                                                                  60000
 50000                                                                  50000
 40000                                                                  40000                                                    US$ million
                                                          US$ million
 30000                                                                  30000
 20000                                                                  20000
 10000                                                                  10000
     0                                                                      0


                                                                               05


                                                                                       06


                                                                                               07


                                                                                                       08


                                                                                                              09


                                                                                                                     10


                                                                                                                            11
     81
     83
     85
     87
     89
     91
     93
     95
     97
     99
     01
     03
     05
     07
     09
     11




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  19
  19
  19
  19


  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20


  20
  19




  19




  20




 Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
 (UNCTAD), “Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flows,         Source: A Capital Dragon Index
 Annual,”
 UNCTADStat Database. http://unctadstat.unctad.org. 9

 Units in US$m at current prices and current exchange rates


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China’s war chest has been steadily increasing

                                             China's foreign reserves (1990-2011)

       40000

       30000

       20000                                                                                                                 100mUS$

       10000

           0
           1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000   2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011




               Source: PRC State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)



As of the end of March 2012, China had US$3,305bn in foreign exchange reserves10.

China has had large foreign reserves from historical trade surpluses, high net foreign
direct investments (“FDI”) inflows and speculative capital inflows.

Chinese officials realised that parking the bulk of their foreign reserves in the bonds of
over-indebted Western governments would not generate the highest returns (at the end
of June 2012, over 35% of the reserves were stored in low-yield US government
bonds8).

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Historical Outbound M&A Activity
Outbound M&A was insignificant until 2005 when it passed US$10bn after which the
pace picked up with a total of 207 announced deals in 2011 worth US$42.9bn¹.
According to PwC’s analysis which includes announced deals (not necessarily closed),
Chinese outbound M&A in 2011 represented an increase of 10% by deal number and
12% in deal value year-on-year¹.
However, according to A Capital Dragon Index which tracks Chinese outbound
investments globally, the index dropped slightly in 2011 (from US$68.81bn to US$68bn in
value) due to over-performing Chinese growth and possibly a sign of caution of Chinese
investors towards volatile markets and increased discernment regarding investment
opportunities. But Chinese outbound investment reached US$21.4bn in the first
three months of 2012 which represents an increase of 118% in value compared to
1Q2011 (the A Capital Dragon Index does not include deals that have not closed).




                                                       Source: MergerMarket




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Why Chinese companies are going out
“Go global” is a natural extension of the development path of Chinese companies. They are
looking to:
• secure supply of mining and natural resource assets
• develop new markets outside China and intensify international presence
• acquire technologies and brands as many Chinese buyers seek to improve their
   competitive position in China
• make minority interest investments with a strategic partner to consolidate partnership and
   future cooperation opportunity
• gain access to learning international management skills and expertise

As part of China’s 12th Five-Year plan, China will spend US$1.7tln over the next five years
developing seven “strategic sectors” - confirmed by Chinese officials at the U.S.-China Joint
Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in Chengdu in 21 Nov 2011. See Appendix
IV and V for details on China’s US$1.7tln spending target over the next five years.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have dominated outbound investments in the past, but
privately owned enterprises (POEs) are participating more and more in outbound M&A
activities (Geely/Volvo, Tencent/Digital Sky, Level Up, Huawei/CIP).



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The government watches outbound deals closely and is
quick to change policy directions
China got burned by the loss of money in its first major investments in financial firms in 2008.
China Investment Corporation (CIC) faced harsh criticism from the Chinese public and
government and reassessed its investment strategy.
Other failed deals such as Chinalco’s attempt to double its stake in Rio Tinto drew
embarrassment abroad and criticism at home. See map in Appendix I showing some failed
Chinese investments.
Through the complex onshore approval regime, the government ensures companies have
properly planned and prepared their outbound investments.
We are seeing more minority deals combining western resources and technology with
Chinese financing capabilities together with cooperation arrangements to form long term
strategic relationships. Going for a minority stake is increasingly recognized as a way to tap
into high quality assets that would otherwise not be for sale or out of reach for Chinese
investors: Zoomlion/Electromech, CIC/GDF Suez, Weichai Group/KION Group.
Following the European debt crisis, instead of buying government bonds, Chinese funds are
looking to invest in European infrastructure and technology companies.




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Sources of China Outbound investment
SOEs…                                           POEs…
…traditionally dominated outward investment     …present a huge potential. Private
because they are the biggest and most           enterprises accounted for US$1.269bn
advanced companies with easy access to          (1.7%) of total non-financial ODI flows up to
cheap financing from state-owned banks and      201116. POEs, which have been growing in
have market presence. They are the largest      terms of number and size, are playing an
Chinese companies in the natural resource       increasingly important role in China’s
sector.                                         economy5, and are particularly active in
                                                outbound M&A in the industrial and
The four largest outbound investors—
                                                consumer related sectors.
CNOOC, Sinopec, China Investment Corp.
(CIC), and China Aluminum—alone                 The complicated approval regime at home
accounted for half of Chinese investment        and foreign exchange restrictions have kept
through the end of 2010. All are centrally      the number of outbound deals by POEs
controlled, with CIC one of the two sovereign   down.
funds6.                                         Private firms are increasingly active, with
SOEs represented 98% of all deal value in       28% of total investment amount (up from
1Q2012 (as against 53% in Q1 of 2011), a        17%) and 61% in terms of number of deals
record high, due to their focus on              (up from 44%) in 201111.
resources12.
See Appendix II for SOEs in Fortune 500.


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Chinese outbound private equity
The private equity industry is fast emerging as a key provider of growth capital to China's
privately owned SMEs. With some degree of fiscal tightening in China and volatility in equity
markets, the role of PE and venture capital funds in this sector of the economy is set to
grow.
Chinese funds are investing minority stakes alongside Chinese companies in midsized
European companies with strong potential in China, either because of their branding or
technology or some other edge.
There is a growing number of new Chinese funds that are keen to invest in debt ridden
companies in Europe and the US which have solid businesses.
We are also seeing more leveraged buyouts and PIPES in offshore-listed PRC businesses -
e.g. Focus Media by CEO Jason Jiang, The Carlyle Group, FountainVest Partners, CITIC
Capital Partners, CDH Investments and China Everbright; Alibaba’s share buy-back from
Yahoo; Citic Capital’s move for telecoms billing firm AsiaInfo-Linkage.




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China Outbound Drivers and Investment areas




 “When going out, the investment should carry benefits for the company
    and for China’s economy by either promoting Chinese exports,
   enhancing the firm’s technological capacity and R&D activities, or
      enabling it to create and establish an international brand.”
                              MOFCOM




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Drivers for PRC companies to “go out”
Access to raw materials – oil, gas, mining:
Need to secure access to overseas energy resources and raw materials to support China’s high
economic growth rate
Between 2004 and 2006 oil and gas attracted the most Chinese interest, between 2007 and 2009 interest
shifted to the metals and mining sectors
Oil: China was the world’s second-largest consumer of oil behind the United States, and the second-
largest net importer of oil as of 20094.
Mining: aluminum, copper, nickel, iron ore, and other key commodity products
Deals in the resources and energy sectors continued to dominate in 2011, representing 42% of the
number of outbound transactions on a combined basis compared to 44% in 2010. This sector also
accounted for 83% of deal values and 14 out of the 16 deals valued at over US$1bn¹.


Acquisition of Technology, Brands, and Know-How
Chinese companies are looking for advanced technology, manufacturing processes, and managerial
know-how
Companies are encouraged to enter joint ventures or to purchase foreign companies through which they
can absorb state-of-the-art technologies and thus “leapfrog” several stages of development and upgrades
Shougang (Capital) Iron and Steel/ Mesta Engineering and Design Inc (US); Lenovo/IBM and Medion AG;
Tencent/Digital Sky Technologies; BAIC/SAAB, Sany/Putzmeister, Weichai/KION
The global crisis allowed China to go bargain hunting for firms with good brand recognition but in dire
financial straits: Nanjing Automotive/MG Rover, Geely/ Ford Motor's Volvo, Shandong Heavy/Ferretti.
Haier/Sanyo white goods business, Sergio Tacchini, Fila, Kappa.

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Drivers for PRC companies to “go out” cont.
Competition in the Domestic Market:
Chinese companies are facing intensifying levels of domestic and international competition. Saturated domestic markets or
attempts to gain first-mover advantage in untapped markets overseas are drivers for them to go out.
Chinese firms can no longer compete on low cost alone so they are going out to obtain better research, development, and
brand recognition. They want to have a competitive edge in the domestic market. Foreign companies control virtually all IP
in China and account for 85% of China's technology exports.


Overcoming Trade Barriers
Some Chinese companies invest abroad in an attempt to avoid foreign quotas, tariffs, and other barriers to Chinese-made
goods.
This was a more compelling motivation before China’s WTO accession, but some tariffs and quotas remain and Chinese
firms have continued to build factories in countries that have relatively unfettered access to the American and European
markets, e.g. TCL/Schneider deal was a way for Chinese television manufacturer TCL to avoid European quotas on
Chinese imports.
Greenfield investments have also been made in order to take advantage of other country’s government subsidies, tax
credits/breaks and cheap land, eg. Suntech’s factory in Arizona qualified for federal and state tax breaks.


Creating Global Champions
A top priority for the Chinese government under its “going global” strategy is the creation of a number of “global
champions”, large PRC firms with globally recognized brands able to compete in the international marketplace.
All large investors, such as China Minmetals and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, are centrally controlled. Almost
all firms that might qualify as national champions are SOEs.
These also include partially government-owned variations or ones with strong government ties, eg Haier (appliances),
Lenovo (computers), Huawei (telecommunications).



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The Outlook is bright

 China's ODI net flows in 2011 reached US$74.65bn, an increase of 8.5 % compared to the
 previous year. ODI grew an annual average of 45% between 2002 and 2011³.
 For the first half of 2012, there were 117 outbound transactions³.
 By the end of 2011, more than 13,500 PRC investing entities had established about
 18,000 overseas enterprises in 178 different countries. In 2011 alone, China invested in
 1,392 overseas projects in 132 countries³.




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The Outlook is bright
 Although macro-economic indicators show that China’s economy continues to slow down
 in 1H 2012, its accumulated outbound direct investments into the non-financial sector
 totalled US$35.42 billion, indicating 48.2% growth year-on-year13.
 China’s outbound M&A will continue to grow with more diversified industry focus. As
 production of Chinese goods continues to move up the value chain and the country
 transitions to a consumer-led economy, buyers from China are keen to acquire more
 industrial know-how, technology and brands.
 China will soon become a net exporter of FDI. China’s Ministry of Commerce expects this
 crossover to occur around 2015, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks that it
 could happen as early as 20117.
 A Capital Dragon anticipates an additional US$800bn of Chinese ODI over the next five
 years.11
 According to a SAFE official, the government is targeting a total of US$560bn in outbound
 foreign direct investment in the five years to 2015.




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Geographical outlook

                                   China's outward FDI flows by region
                                        (US$ million, 2004-2011)

                50000
                45000
                40000                                                                  Asia
                35000                                                                  Africa
                30000
                                                                                       Europe
                25000
                20000                                                                  Latin America
                15000                                                                  North America
                10000                                                                  Oceania
                 5000
                    0
                          2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011



 Source: PRC Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)



 According to a survey by the EIU² at the beginning of 2010, 42% of the respondents said
 they planned to look to Asia-Pacific for investment, while 39% planned to invest in North
 America and 24% in Western Europe. Among manufacturing companies, eight out of 23
 said they will focus on North American markets; their aim is market expansion.
 Asia, in particular Hong Kong, is the primary destination of Chinese outbound investment.
 Singapore is becoming a popular platform for resources deals in the area. See Appendix III
 for a more detailed explanation.

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2010 Outbound Direct Investment Flow by Region
Distribution of China's ODI Flow by Global Region, 2011 (US$ million)
                           3320   3170
                    2480


                                                                 Africa
       11940
                                                                 Asia


                                                                 Europe


                                                                 Latin America

     8250
                                                                 North America

                                            45490                Oceana


                                         Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE


China has also begun to cut deals with resources-rich African nations under which it
will fund the building of infrastructure in exchange for resources such as oil and
copper. China struck such type of deals in seven African countries, worth a total of
US$14bn between 2004 and 2010².
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2010 Top 10 destinations for Chinese ODI
Top 10 destinations of Chinese ODI, 2011 (US$ million)
                      405.9   376.4   372.8
              708.2
            899.3
          1060.3
                                                         Hong Kong
            1104.1
                                                         British Virgin Islands
       2169.2
                                                         Cayman Islands
                                                         Australia

   2926.1
                                                         Singapore
                                                         United States
                                                         Luxembourg
                                                         South Africa
                                                         Russia
                                              26251.9    Canada



  Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE



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China’s outward foreign direct investment flows into EU
        Country        2005         2006         2007        2008        2009            2010       2011       There is a noticeable increase in
Austria                       -         0.04        0.08            -           -          0.46      20.22
Belgium                       -         0.13        4.91            -      23.62          45.33       35.9
                                                                                                               Europe as an investment target, with
Bulgaria                  1.72             -            0           -       -2.43         16.29       53.9     44 announced transactions in 2011,
Cyprus                        -            -         0.3            -           -               -    89,54     compared to 25 in 2010¹. The target
Czeck Rep                     -          9.1        4.97       12.79        15.6           2.11       8.84
                                                                                                               sectors in Europe have been
Denmark                  10.79        -58.91        0.27        1.33        2.64           1.61       5.89
Estonia                       -            -            -           -           -               -          -   industrials and consumer related
Finland                       -            -        0.01        2.66        1.11          18.04       1.56     sectors besides the always popular
France                    6.09           5.6        9.62       31.05       45.19          26.41      3482      resources sector.
Germany                  128.7        76.72        238.7       183.4       179.2          412.4      512.4
Greece                        -            -        0.03        0.12            -               -     0.43
Hungary                   0.65          0.37        8.63        2.15        8.21          370.1      11.61     Europe is experiencing the
Ireland                       -       25.29          0.2       42.33        -0.95         32.88      16.93     start of a structural surge in Chinese
Italy                     7.46          7.63         8.1            5      46.05          13.27      224.8
Latvia                        -            -       -1.74            -       -0.03               -          -
                                                                                                               ODI in advanced economies. The take-
Lithuania                     -            -            -           -           -               -          -   off was only recent: annual inflows
Luxembourg                    -            -        4.19       42.13        2270          3207       1265      tripled from 2006 to 2009, and tripled
Malta                         -          0.1        -0.1        0.47        0.22          -2.37       0.27
                                                                                                               again by 2011 to $10bn for the year.
Netherlands               3.84          5.31       106.8       91.97       101.5          64.53      167.9
Poland                    0.13             -       11.75        10.7       10.37          16.74      48.66     The number of deals with a value of
Portugal                      -            -            0           -           -               -          -   more than $1m doubled from less than
Romania                   2.87          9.63         6.8       11.98        5.29          10.84        0.3     50 to almost 100 in 2010 and 2011 15.
Slovakia                      -            -            -           -       0.26           0.46       5.94
Slovenia                      -            -            -           -           -               -          -
                                                                                                               In 12012, Europe was the no.2
Spain                     1.47           7.3        6.09        1.16       59.86          29.26      139.7     destination behind South America and
Sweden                        1          5.3       68.06       10.66          8.1         1367       49.01     no.1 for non-resources with US$1.7bn
United Kingdom           24.78        35.12        566.5       16.71       192.2          330.3      1420
Total                    189.5        128.7        1044        466.6        2966          5963       7471
                                                                                                               invested and 83% of non-resource
(US$ million). Note: Data for 2005, 2006 include only non-financial outward FDI flows.                         total11.
                                                                    Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE

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Sectoral Composition
The flow of investment in natural resource extraction accounted for nearly half of the total in
2003, one third in 2004, and about 40% in 2006 but dropped to less than 16% in 2009. The
largest investments in 1Q2012 were dominated by the traditional pattern of Chinese state-
owned companies investing in energy and resources companies in places like South
America and Africa.
However, Chinese ODI targets a wide variety of business areas, reflecting the diversified
nature of the country’s domestic industries and the Chinese government’s considerations.
The consistently high percentage of investment flow in the service sector (30% in business
services and 19% in finance in 2009) reflects the fact that ODI is largely used to serve and
promote the export of Chinese commodities.
According to MOFCOM, the outflows of financial ODI reached US$6.1bn in 2011, among
which US$3.4bn was in the banking sector (56%). By the end of 2011, total Chinese financial
investments overseas was split between banking (80.1%), insurance (1.7%), securities
(5.2%) and other financial sectors (13%). Investments by financial institutions dropped
29.7% to US$6.1bn in 2011, probably due to the continuing European debt crisis and a
volatile global financial market. However investments by non-financial companies reached
US$68.6bn in 2011, up 14% from the previous year³.




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Outbound Direct Investment Flow by Sector, 2011
Distribution of China's ODI Flow by Sector, 2011 (US$ million)
                                                                                   Agriculture, forestry, husbandry, and fishery
                                             776
                                   1648 2564                                       Mining
                            1875                          10324
                                                                                   Manufacturing

                                                                                   Production and supply of electricity, gas and w ater
                 7041                                                 117
                                                                                   Construction

                                                                        6071       Transport, storage and post

                                                                                   Information transmission, computer servises and softw are

                                                                            1974   Wholesale and retail trade

                                                                                   Lodging and catering services

       14446                                                                       Banking

                                                                                   Real Estate

                                                                                   Leasing and business services
        798                                                                        Scientific research, technical service and geologic prospecting
         105
                                                                                   Water conservancy, environment and public facilities management
           6
          20                                                  25597                Service to households and other services

          329                                                                      Education
                255
                      707                                                          Health, social security and social w elfare

                                                                                   Culture, sports and entertainment
                                                   Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE



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A word of warning
Extensive use of data has been taken from the 2010 and 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China’s
Outward Foreign Direct Investment issued by MOFCOM, NBS and SAFE. Unfortunately,
data most readily available from Chinese statistical sources generally have a reputation for
inaccuracy and opacity.
Also, different sources have different measurement methods. All values must, therefore, be
taken with some reservations.
By way of example, according to ThompsonReuters data, China outbound investment in
2011 reached US$59bn. PwC which based its analysis on ThompsonReuters and
ChinaVentures data stated there were US$42.9bn with 207 deals in 2011, and according to
A Capital which uses data sourced from Mergermarket, NBS, MOFCOM, UNCTAD and
proprietary research, 2011 saw US$68bn worth of ODI flows from China. According to
China’s 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment, ODI flows for
2011 were US$74.7bn.
The 2009 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, compiled by
MOFCOM, does not provide ownership breakdown for companies responsible for the rest of
the capital (about 30%). They may include state enterprises that are governed by local
(provincial or municipal) governments, and companies partially owned or controlled by the
state, eg. Lenovo, TCL, and Beida Jade Bird (all listed companies) owned by the regional
governments of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong.




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Appendices




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Appendix I: Through consolidation and controls over new entrants,
national champions have been built from large SOEs
 Fortune                 Company                               Industry                Revenue        Fortune                Company                                 Industry                   Revenu
500 Rank                                                                                 (US$        500 Rank                                                                                   e (US$
    #                                                                                   billion)         #                                                                                      billion)
   5        Sinopec Group                       Petroleum Refining                        273,422      297      China Metallurgical Group                Equipment Manufacturer                   32,076
   6        China National Petroleum            Petroleum Refining                        240,192      311      Aviation Industry Gorp. of China         Aerospace & Defense                      31,006
   7        State Grid                          Utilities                                 226,294      326      Shougang Group                           Metals                                   29,181
   77       Industrial & Commercial Bank of
           China
                                                Bank                                       80,501      328      Ping An Insurance                        Insurance                                28,927
   87       China Mobile Communications         Telecommunications                         76,673      331      Aluminum Corp. of China                  Metals                                   28,871
   95       China Railway Group                 Construction, Engineering                  69,973      341      Wuhan Iron & Steel                       Metals                                   28,170
  105       China Railway Construction          Construction                               67,414      343      China Post Group                         Utilities                                28,094
  108       China Construction Bank             Bank                                       67,081
                                                                                                       346      China Resources                          Resources                                27,820
  113       China Life Insurance                Insurance                                  64,635
                                                                                                       352      Huawei Technologies                      IT, communications                       27,356
  127       Agricultural Bank of China          Bank                                       60,536
                                                                                                       354      Sinosteel                                Metals                                   27,266
  132       Bank of China                       Bank                                       59,212
                                                                                                       366      COFCO                                    Food, agribusiness                       26,469
  139       Noble Group                         Agricultural and energy products           56,696
                                                                                                       367      Jiangsu Shagang Group                    Metals                                   26,388
  145       Dongfeng Motor                      Automotive Motor Vehicles                  55,748
  147       China State Construction            Construction, Engineering                  54,721      371      China United Network Communications      Utilities                                26,025
           Engineering
                                                                                                       375      China Datang                             Power Generation                         25,915
  149       China Southern Power Grid           Utilities                                  54,449
                                                                                                       398      Bank of Communications                   Banking                                  24,264
  151       Shanghai Automotive                 Motor Vehicles & Parts                     54,257
  162       China National Offshore Oil         Mining, Crude Oil Production               52,408      399      China Ocean Shipping                     Shipping                                 24,250
  168       Sinochem Group                      Energy, agriculture, chemicals, real       49,537      405      China Guodian                            Power                                    24,016
                                                  estate, finance
                                                                                                       408      China Electronics                        IT                                       23,761
  197       China FAW Group                     Automotive Vehicles                        43,434
                                                                                                       430      China Railway Materials Commercial       Steel Trade & Railway Service            22,631
  211       China Communications Construction Transportation infrastructure                40,414
            Baosteel Group                      Metals
                                                                                                       431      China National Aviation Fuel Group       Air transportation logistics service     22,630
  212                                                                                      40,327
  221       CITIC Group                         Financial Services                         38,985      435      Sinomach                                 Machinery Industry                       22,487
                                                                                                       446      Henan Coal & Chemical                    Coal                                     21,715
  222       China Telecommunications            Telecommunications                         38,469
                                                                                                       450      Lenovo Group                             Engineering, Technology                  21,594
  227       China South Industries Group        Vehicles, new energy, equipment
                                                  manufacturing, defence
                                                                                           37,996
                                                                                                       458      Jizhong Energy Group                     Energy, Resource                         21,255
  229       China Minmetals                     Metals and Mining Corporation              37,555
                                                                                                       463      China Shipbuilding Industry              Shipbuilding and Shiprepairing           21,055
  250       China North Industries Group        Defense, IT, petro chemicals,              35,629
                                                  equipment manufacturing                              467      China Pacific Insurance (Group)          Insurance                                20,878
  276       China Huaneng Group                 Power Generation                           33,681      475      ChemChina                                Chemical                                 20,715
  279       HeBei Iron & Steel Group            Metals                                     33,549      484      Zhejiang Materials Industry Group        Metal materials, energy,                 20,001
                                                                                                                                                           chemicals, logistics, Trading
  289       People’s Insurance Co. of China     Insurance                                  32,579
                                                                                                       485      China National Building Material Group   Construction                             19,996
  293       Shenhua Group                       Mining and Energy                          32,446
                                                                      From the July 25, 2011 issue
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Appendix II: 12th FYP spending targets
China will spend US$1.7tln over the next five years developing seven
“strategic sectors” - confirmed by Chinese officials at the U.S.-China Joint
Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in Chengdu in 21 Nov
2011.
The seven strategic sectors are referred to in China’s 12th Five-year Plan
as the “Strategic Emerging Industries”.
The targeted sectors include alternative energy, bio-technology, new-
generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing,
advanced materials, alternative-fuel cars, and energy-saving and
environmentally-friendly technologies
The spending target is 2.5 times larger than the RMB4bn stimulus the
country enacted at the end of 2008 which saw China spend its way out of
the global crisis and speed up its emergence as a global force.




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Appendix III: The 12th FYP’s Seven SEIs and 37 Projects for Sub-
industries




                                                  U.S. –China Economic and Security Review
                                                  Commission, Hearing on China’s Five- Year Plan,
                                                  Indigenous Innovation and Technology
                                                  Transfers, and Outsourcing, testimony of Willy C.
                                                  Shih, June 15, 2011.




                                                                                                24
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EIU Survey results2




                          25
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Footnotes
¹ PwC, M&A 2011 Review and 2012 Outlook Press Briefing.
2
    Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), A Brave New World, March 2010
³ MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct
Investment
4
    U.S. Energy Information Administration
5
    PwC, China Opportunities: As a market and as an investor, June 2010
6
 The Heritage Foundation, Derek Scissors, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and
U.S.–China Economic Relations, 1 April 2011
7
 IMF (2010a); and China Daily, “Overseas Direct Investment to Grow,” December 24,
2010, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-12/24/content_11749290.htm




                                                                                    26
    www.asianhorizonltd.com
Footnotes contin.
8
     US Treasury Department data: China’s holdings reached US$1,164.3bn end 1H2012
9
 MOFCOM officially disagrees with these figures, as they are based on different
measurement methods
10
     People’s Bank of China, financial statistical report of 1st quarter 2012
 A Capital Dragon Index, 2011 Full Year, How fast is China Globalizing: Tracking Chinese
11

Outbound Investments, & 1Q2012
12
     The Economic Times, China’s outbound investment touch $21.4 bn in Q1 2012
13
     KPMG, 毕马威中国经济全球化观察, 2012 年第二季度
14
     Stratfor Global Intelligence, Chinese Investment Offers in Africa, 15 August 2012
15
     Rhodium Group, China Invests in Europe – Patterns, Impacts and Policy Implications
 The figure refers to investments by 私营企业 accoridng to MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2011
16

Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment




                                                                                           27
     www.asianhorizonltd.com
Other references
US-China Economic & Security Review Commission, Going Out: An Overview of China’s Outward
Foreign Direct Investment, 30 March 2011
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), A Brave New World, March 2010
PwC, China outbound M&A deal activity powers ahead, 15 August 2011
PwC, China Opportunities: As a market and as an investor, June 2010
MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2009 and 2010 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment
The Heritage Foundation, Chinese Outward Investment: More Opportunity than Danger, 13 July 2011
The Heritage Foundation, Derek Scissors, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and U.S.–China Economic
Relations , 1 April 2011
Asia Society’s special report, An American Open Door? Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign
Direct Investment, May 2011
Deloitte, Borderless, boundless, 2011
US-China Economic & Security Review Commission, Backgrounder: China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, 24 June
2011
APCO, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, 10 December 2010
McKinsey&Company, What China’s five-year plan means for business, July 2011
EIU, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan or how to turn an oil tanker round, January 2011




                                                                                                   28
 www.asianhorizonltd.com
Thank You




Ricardo Ferrer
CEO, Asian Horizon Ltd.
www.asianhorizonltd.com


Shanghai, 2013

                                      29
www.asianhorizonltd.com

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China outbound Investment

  • 1. China Outbound Investment Why Chinese companies are coming out, and at what scale are they doing so. How does it affect your brand/company? Ricardo Ferrer Asian Horizon Ltd. Shanghai, 2013 1 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 2. Looking back: the China Outbound landscape changed China’s vision for its companies to become global players was spelled out in 1999 with the “Go Global” policy - the State Council issued a new regulation which granted export tax rebates, foreign exchange management assistance and financial support to overseas Chinese enterprises that used raw materials, components and parts, and machinery equipment made in China. Chinese companies have been investing outside of China through greenfield projects and through M&A. Chinese ODI Flows (1982-2011) Chinese ODI Flows (2005-2011) 80000 80000 70000 70000 60000 60000 50000 50000 40000 40000 US$ million US$ million 30000 30000 20000 20000 10000 10000 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), “Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flows, Source: A Capital Dragon Index Annual,” UNCTADStat Database. http://unctadstat.unctad.org. 9 Units in US$m at current prices and current exchange rates 2 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 3. China’s war chest has been steadily increasing China's foreign reserves (1990-2011) 40000 30000 20000 100mUS$ 10000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: PRC State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) As of the end of March 2012, China had US$3,305bn in foreign exchange reserves10. China has had large foreign reserves from historical trade surpluses, high net foreign direct investments (“FDI”) inflows and speculative capital inflows. Chinese officials realised that parking the bulk of their foreign reserves in the bonds of over-indebted Western governments would not generate the highest returns (at the end of June 2012, over 35% of the reserves were stored in low-yield US government bonds8). 3 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 4. Historical Outbound M&A Activity Outbound M&A was insignificant until 2005 when it passed US$10bn after which the pace picked up with a total of 207 announced deals in 2011 worth US$42.9bn¹. According to PwC’s analysis which includes announced deals (not necessarily closed), Chinese outbound M&A in 2011 represented an increase of 10% by deal number and 12% in deal value year-on-year¹. However, according to A Capital Dragon Index which tracks Chinese outbound investments globally, the index dropped slightly in 2011 (from US$68.81bn to US$68bn in value) due to over-performing Chinese growth and possibly a sign of caution of Chinese investors towards volatile markets and increased discernment regarding investment opportunities. But Chinese outbound investment reached US$21.4bn in the first three months of 2012 which represents an increase of 118% in value compared to 1Q2011 (the A Capital Dragon Index does not include deals that have not closed). Source: MergerMarket 4 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 5. Why Chinese companies are going out “Go global” is a natural extension of the development path of Chinese companies. They are looking to: • secure supply of mining and natural resource assets • develop new markets outside China and intensify international presence • acquire technologies and brands as many Chinese buyers seek to improve their competitive position in China • make minority interest investments with a strategic partner to consolidate partnership and future cooperation opportunity • gain access to learning international management skills and expertise As part of China’s 12th Five-Year plan, China will spend US$1.7tln over the next five years developing seven “strategic sectors” - confirmed by Chinese officials at the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in Chengdu in 21 Nov 2011. See Appendix IV and V for details on China’s US$1.7tln spending target over the next five years. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have dominated outbound investments in the past, but privately owned enterprises (POEs) are participating more and more in outbound M&A activities (Geely/Volvo, Tencent/Digital Sky, Level Up, Huawei/CIP). 5 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 6. The government watches outbound deals closely and is quick to change policy directions China got burned by the loss of money in its first major investments in financial firms in 2008. China Investment Corporation (CIC) faced harsh criticism from the Chinese public and government and reassessed its investment strategy. Other failed deals such as Chinalco’s attempt to double its stake in Rio Tinto drew embarrassment abroad and criticism at home. See map in Appendix I showing some failed Chinese investments. Through the complex onshore approval regime, the government ensures companies have properly planned and prepared their outbound investments. We are seeing more minority deals combining western resources and technology with Chinese financing capabilities together with cooperation arrangements to form long term strategic relationships. Going for a minority stake is increasingly recognized as a way to tap into high quality assets that would otherwise not be for sale or out of reach for Chinese investors: Zoomlion/Electromech, CIC/GDF Suez, Weichai Group/KION Group. Following the European debt crisis, instead of buying government bonds, Chinese funds are looking to invest in European infrastructure and technology companies. 6 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 7. Sources of China Outbound investment SOEs… POEs… …traditionally dominated outward investment …present a huge potential. Private because they are the biggest and most enterprises accounted for US$1.269bn advanced companies with easy access to (1.7%) of total non-financial ODI flows up to cheap financing from state-owned banks and 201116. POEs, which have been growing in have market presence. They are the largest terms of number and size, are playing an Chinese companies in the natural resource increasingly important role in China’s sector. economy5, and are particularly active in outbound M&A in the industrial and The four largest outbound investors— consumer related sectors. CNOOC, Sinopec, China Investment Corp. (CIC), and China Aluminum—alone The complicated approval regime at home accounted for half of Chinese investment and foreign exchange restrictions have kept through the end of 2010. All are centrally the number of outbound deals by POEs controlled, with CIC one of the two sovereign down. funds6. Private firms are increasingly active, with SOEs represented 98% of all deal value in 28% of total investment amount (up from 1Q2012 (as against 53% in Q1 of 2011), a 17%) and 61% in terms of number of deals record high, due to their focus on (up from 44%) in 201111. resources12. See Appendix II for SOEs in Fortune 500. 7 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 8. Chinese outbound private equity The private equity industry is fast emerging as a key provider of growth capital to China's privately owned SMEs. With some degree of fiscal tightening in China and volatility in equity markets, the role of PE and venture capital funds in this sector of the economy is set to grow. Chinese funds are investing minority stakes alongside Chinese companies in midsized European companies with strong potential in China, either because of their branding or technology or some other edge. There is a growing number of new Chinese funds that are keen to invest in debt ridden companies in Europe and the US which have solid businesses. We are also seeing more leveraged buyouts and PIPES in offshore-listed PRC businesses - e.g. Focus Media by CEO Jason Jiang, The Carlyle Group, FountainVest Partners, CITIC Capital Partners, CDH Investments and China Everbright; Alibaba’s share buy-back from Yahoo; Citic Capital’s move for telecoms billing firm AsiaInfo-Linkage. 8 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 9. China Outbound Drivers and Investment areas “When going out, the investment should carry benefits for the company and for China’s economy by either promoting Chinese exports, enhancing the firm’s technological capacity and R&D activities, or enabling it to create and establish an international brand.” MOFCOM 9 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 10. Drivers for PRC companies to “go out” Access to raw materials – oil, gas, mining: Need to secure access to overseas energy resources and raw materials to support China’s high economic growth rate Between 2004 and 2006 oil and gas attracted the most Chinese interest, between 2007 and 2009 interest shifted to the metals and mining sectors Oil: China was the world’s second-largest consumer of oil behind the United States, and the second- largest net importer of oil as of 20094. Mining: aluminum, copper, nickel, iron ore, and other key commodity products Deals in the resources and energy sectors continued to dominate in 2011, representing 42% of the number of outbound transactions on a combined basis compared to 44% in 2010. This sector also accounted for 83% of deal values and 14 out of the 16 deals valued at over US$1bn¹. Acquisition of Technology, Brands, and Know-How Chinese companies are looking for advanced technology, manufacturing processes, and managerial know-how Companies are encouraged to enter joint ventures or to purchase foreign companies through which they can absorb state-of-the-art technologies and thus “leapfrog” several stages of development and upgrades Shougang (Capital) Iron and Steel/ Mesta Engineering and Design Inc (US); Lenovo/IBM and Medion AG; Tencent/Digital Sky Technologies; BAIC/SAAB, Sany/Putzmeister, Weichai/KION The global crisis allowed China to go bargain hunting for firms with good brand recognition but in dire financial straits: Nanjing Automotive/MG Rover, Geely/ Ford Motor's Volvo, Shandong Heavy/Ferretti. Haier/Sanyo white goods business, Sergio Tacchini, Fila, Kappa. 10 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 11. Drivers for PRC companies to “go out” cont. Competition in the Domestic Market: Chinese companies are facing intensifying levels of domestic and international competition. Saturated domestic markets or attempts to gain first-mover advantage in untapped markets overseas are drivers for them to go out. Chinese firms can no longer compete on low cost alone so they are going out to obtain better research, development, and brand recognition. They want to have a competitive edge in the domestic market. Foreign companies control virtually all IP in China and account for 85% of China's technology exports. Overcoming Trade Barriers Some Chinese companies invest abroad in an attempt to avoid foreign quotas, tariffs, and other barriers to Chinese-made goods. This was a more compelling motivation before China’s WTO accession, but some tariffs and quotas remain and Chinese firms have continued to build factories in countries that have relatively unfettered access to the American and European markets, e.g. TCL/Schneider deal was a way for Chinese television manufacturer TCL to avoid European quotas on Chinese imports. Greenfield investments have also been made in order to take advantage of other country’s government subsidies, tax credits/breaks and cheap land, eg. Suntech’s factory in Arizona qualified for federal and state tax breaks. Creating Global Champions A top priority for the Chinese government under its “going global” strategy is the creation of a number of “global champions”, large PRC firms with globally recognized brands able to compete in the international marketplace. All large investors, such as China Minmetals and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, are centrally controlled. Almost all firms that might qualify as national champions are SOEs. These also include partially government-owned variations or ones with strong government ties, eg Haier (appliances), Lenovo (computers), Huawei (telecommunications). 11 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 12. The Outlook is bright China's ODI net flows in 2011 reached US$74.65bn, an increase of 8.5 % compared to the previous year. ODI grew an annual average of 45% between 2002 and 2011³. For the first half of 2012, there were 117 outbound transactions³. By the end of 2011, more than 13,500 PRC investing entities had established about 18,000 overseas enterprises in 178 different countries. In 2011 alone, China invested in 1,392 overseas projects in 132 countries³. 12 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 13. The Outlook is bright Although macro-economic indicators show that China’s economy continues to slow down in 1H 2012, its accumulated outbound direct investments into the non-financial sector totalled US$35.42 billion, indicating 48.2% growth year-on-year13. China’s outbound M&A will continue to grow with more diversified industry focus. As production of Chinese goods continues to move up the value chain and the country transitions to a consumer-led economy, buyers from China are keen to acquire more industrial know-how, technology and brands. China will soon become a net exporter of FDI. China’s Ministry of Commerce expects this crossover to occur around 2015, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks that it could happen as early as 20117. A Capital Dragon anticipates an additional US$800bn of Chinese ODI over the next five years.11 According to a SAFE official, the government is targeting a total of US$560bn in outbound foreign direct investment in the five years to 2015. 13 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 14. Geographical outlook China's outward FDI flows by region (US$ million, 2004-2011) 50000 45000 40000 Asia 35000 Africa 30000 Europe 25000 20000 Latin America 15000 North America 10000 Oceania 5000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: PRC Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) According to a survey by the EIU² at the beginning of 2010, 42% of the respondents said they planned to look to Asia-Pacific for investment, while 39% planned to invest in North America and 24% in Western Europe. Among manufacturing companies, eight out of 23 said they will focus on North American markets; their aim is market expansion. Asia, in particular Hong Kong, is the primary destination of Chinese outbound investment. Singapore is becoming a popular platform for resources deals in the area. See Appendix III for a more detailed explanation. 14 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 15. 2010 Outbound Direct Investment Flow by Region Distribution of China's ODI Flow by Global Region, 2011 (US$ million) 3320 3170 2480 Africa 11940 Asia Europe Latin America 8250 North America 45490 Oceana Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE China has also begun to cut deals with resources-rich African nations under which it will fund the building of infrastructure in exchange for resources such as oil and copper. China struck such type of deals in seven African countries, worth a total of US$14bn between 2004 and 2010². 15 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 16. 2010 Top 10 destinations for Chinese ODI Top 10 destinations of Chinese ODI, 2011 (US$ million) 405.9 376.4 372.8 708.2 899.3 1060.3 Hong Kong 1104.1 British Virgin Islands 2169.2 Cayman Islands Australia 2926.1 Singapore United States Luxembourg South Africa Russia 26251.9 Canada Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE 16 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 17. China’s outward foreign direct investment flows into EU Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 There is a noticeable increase in Austria - 0.04 0.08 - - 0.46 20.22 Belgium - 0.13 4.91 - 23.62 45.33 35.9 Europe as an investment target, with Bulgaria 1.72 - 0 - -2.43 16.29 53.9 44 announced transactions in 2011, Cyprus - - 0.3 - - - 89,54 compared to 25 in 2010¹. The target Czeck Rep - 9.1 4.97 12.79 15.6 2.11 8.84 sectors in Europe have been Denmark 10.79 -58.91 0.27 1.33 2.64 1.61 5.89 Estonia - - - - - - - industrials and consumer related Finland - - 0.01 2.66 1.11 18.04 1.56 sectors besides the always popular France 6.09 5.6 9.62 31.05 45.19 26.41 3482 resources sector. Germany 128.7 76.72 238.7 183.4 179.2 412.4 512.4 Greece - - 0.03 0.12 - - 0.43 Hungary 0.65 0.37 8.63 2.15 8.21 370.1 11.61 Europe is experiencing the Ireland - 25.29 0.2 42.33 -0.95 32.88 16.93 start of a structural surge in Chinese Italy 7.46 7.63 8.1 5 46.05 13.27 224.8 Latvia - - -1.74 - -0.03 - - ODI in advanced economies. The take- Lithuania - - - - - - - off was only recent: annual inflows Luxembourg - - 4.19 42.13 2270 3207 1265 tripled from 2006 to 2009, and tripled Malta - 0.1 -0.1 0.47 0.22 -2.37 0.27 again by 2011 to $10bn for the year. Netherlands 3.84 5.31 106.8 91.97 101.5 64.53 167.9 Poland 0.13 - 11.75 10.7 10.37 16.74 48.66 The number of deals with a value of Portugal - - 0 - - - - more than $1m doubled from less than Romania 2.87 9.63 6.8 11.98 5.29 10.84 0.3 50 to almost 100 in 2010 and 2011 15. Slovakia - - - - 0.26 0.46 5.94 Slovenia - - - - - - - In 12012, Europe was the no.2 Spain 1.47 7.3 6.09 1.16 59.86 29.26 139.7 destination behind South America and Sweden 1 5.3 68.06 10.66 8.1 1367 49.01 no.1 for non-resources with US$1.7bn United Kingdom 24.78 35.12 566.5 16.71 192.2 330.3 1420 Total 189.5 128.7 1044 466.6 2966 5963 7471 invested and 83% of non-resource (US$ million). Note: Data for 2005, 2006 include only non-financial outward FDI flows. total11. Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE 17 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 18. Sectoral Composition The flow of investment in natural resource extraction accounted for nearly half of the total in 2003, one third in 2004, and about 40% in 2006 but dropped to less than 16% in 2009. The largest investments in 1Q2012 were dominated by the traditional pattern of Chinese state- owned companies investing in energy and resources companies in places like South America and Africa. However, Chinese ODI targets a wide variety of business areas, reflecting the diversified nature of the country’s domestic industries and the Chinese government’s considerations. The consistently high percentage of investment flow in the service sector (30% in business services and 19% in finance in 2009) reflects the fact that ODI is largely used to serve and promote the export of Chinese commodities. According to MOFCOM, the outflows of financial ODI reached US$6.1bn in 2011, among which US$3.4bn was in the banking sector (56%). By the end of 2011, total Chinese financial investments overseas was split between banking (80.1%), insurance (1.7%), securities (5.2%) and other financial sectors (13%). Investments by financial institutions dropped 29.7% to US$6.1bn in 2011, probably due to the continuing European debt crisis and a volatile global financial market. However investments by non-financial companies reached US$68.6bn in 2011, up 14% from the previous year³. 18 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 19. Outbound Direct Investment Flow by Sector, 2011 Distribution of China's ODI Flow by Sector, 2011 (US$ million) Agriculture, forestry, husbandry, and fishery 776 1648 2564 Mining 1875 10324 Manufacturing Production and supply of electricity, gas and w ater 7041 117 Construction 6071 Transport, storage and post Information transmission, computer servises and softw are 1974 Wholesale and retail trade Lodging and catering services 14446 Banking Real Estate Leasing and business services 798 Scientific research, technical service and geologic prospecting 105 Water conservancy, environment and public facilities management 6 20 25597 Service to households and other services 329 Education 255 707 Health, social security and social w elfare Culture, sports and entertainment Source: MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE 19 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 20. A word of warning Extensive use of data has been taken from the 2010 and 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment issued by MOFCOM, NBS and SAFE. Unfortunately, data most readily available from Chinese statistical sources generally have a reputation for inaccuracy and opacity. Also, different sources have different measurement methods. All values must, therefore, be taken with some reservations. By way of example, according to ThompsonReuters data, China outbound investment in 2011 reached US$59bn. PwC which based its analysis on ThompsonReuters and ChinaVentures data stated there were US$42.9bn with 207 deals in 2011, and according to A Capital which uses data sourced from Mergermarket, NBS, MOFCOM, UNCTAD and proprietary research, 2011 saw US$68bn worth of ODI flows from China. According to China’s 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment, ODI flows for 2011 were US$74.7bn. The 2009 Statistical Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, compiled by MOFCOM, does not provide ownership breakdown for companies responsible for the rest of the capital (about 30%). They may include state enterprises that are governed by local (provincial or municipal) governments, and companies partially owned or controlled by the state, eg. Lenovo, TCL, and Beida Jade Bird (all listed companies) owned by the regional governments of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. 20 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 21. Appendices 21 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 22. Appendix I: Through consolidation and controls over new entrants, national champions have been built from large SOEs Fortune Company Industry Revenue Fortune Company Industry Revenu 500 Rank (US$ 500 Rank e (US$ # billion) # billion) 5 Sinopec Group Petroleum Refining 273,422 297 China Metallurgical Group Equipment Manufacturer 32,076 6 China National Petroleum Petroleum Refining 240,192 311 Aviation Industry Gorp. of China Aerospace & Defense 31,006 7 State Grid Utilities 226,294 326 Shougang Group Metals 29,181 77 Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Bank 80,501 328 Ping An Insurance Insurance 28,927 87 China Mobile Communications Telecommunications 76,673 331 Aluminum Corp. of China Metals 28,871 95 China Railway Group Construction, Engineering 69,973 341 Wuhan Iron & Steel Metals 28,170 105 China Railway Construction Construction 67,414 343 China Post Group Utilities 28,094 108 China Construction Bank Bank 67,081 346 China Resources Resources 27,820 113 China Life Insurance Insurance 64,635 352 Huawei Technologies IT, communications 27,356 127 Agricultural Bank of China Bank 60,536 354 Sinosteel Metals 27,266 132 Bank of China Bank 59,212 366 COFCO Food, agribusiness 26,469 139 Noble Group Agricultural and energy products 56,696 367 Jiangsu Shagang Group Metals 26,388 145 Dongfeng Motor Automotive Motor Vehicles 55,748 147 China State Construction Construction, Engineering 54,721 371 China United Network Communications Utilities 26,025 Engineering 375 China Datang Power Generation 25,915 149 China Southern Power Grid Utilities 54,449 398 Bank of Communications Banking 24,264 151 Shanghai Automotive Motor Vehicles & Parts 54,257 162 China National Offshore Oil Mining, Crude Oil Production 52,408 399 China Ocean Shipping Shipping 24,250 168 Sinochem Group Energy, agriculture, chemicals, real 49,537 405 China Guodian Power 24,016 estate, finance 408 China Electronics IT 23,761 197 China FAW Group Automotive Vehicles 43,434 430 China Railway Materials Commercial Steel Trade & Railway Service 22,631 211 China Communications Construction Transportation infrastructure 40,414 Baosteel Group Metals 431 China National Aviation Fuel Group Air transportation logistics service 22,630 212 40,327 221 CITIC Group Financial Services 38,985 435 Sinomach Machinery Industry 22,487 446 Henan Coal & Chemical Coal 21,715 222 China Telecommunications Telecommunications 38,469 450 Lenovo Group Engineering, Technology 21,594 227 China South Industries Group Vehicles, new energy, equipment manufacturing, defence 37,996 458 Jizhong Energy Group Energy, Resource 21,255 229 China Minmetals Metals and Mining Corporation 37,555 463 China Shipbuilding Industry Shipbuilding and Shiprepairing 21,055 250 China North Industries Group Defense, IT, petro chemicals, 35,629 equipment manufacturing 467 China Pacific Insurance (Group) Insurance 20,878 276 China Huaneng Group Power Generation 33,681 475 ChemChina Chemical 20,715 279 HeBei Iron & Steel Group Metals 33,549 484 Zhejiang Materials Industry Group Metal materials, energy, 20,001 chemicals, logistics, Trading 289 People’s Insurance Co. of China Insurance 32,579 485 China National Building Material Group Construction 19,996 293 Shenhua Group Mining and Energy 32,446 From the July 25, 2011 issue 22 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 23. Appendix II: 12th FYP spending targets China will spend US$1.7tln over the next five years developing seven “strategic sectors” - confirmed by Chinese officials at the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in Chengdu in 21 Nov 2011. The seven strategic sectors are referred to in China’s 12th Five-year Plan as the “Strategic Emerging Industries”. The targeted sectors include alternative energy, bio-technology, new- generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, advanced materials, alternative-fuel cars, and energy-saving and environmentally-friendly technologies The spending target is 2.5 times larger than the RMB4bn stimulus the country enacted at the end of 2008 which saw China spend its way out of the global crisis and speed up its emergence as a global force. 23 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 24. Appendix III: The 12th FYP’s Seven SEIs and 37 Projects for Sub- industries U.S. –China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on China’s Five- Year Plan, Indigenous Innovation and Technology Transfers, and Outsourcing, testimony of Willy C. Shih, June 15, 2011. 24 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 25. EIU Survey results2 25 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 26. Footnotes ¹ PwC, M&A 2011 Review and 2012 Outlook Press Briefing. 2 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), A Brave New World, March 2010 ³ MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2011 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment 4 U.S. Energy Information Administration 5 PwC, China Opportunities: As a market and as an investor, June 2010 6 The Heritage Foundation, Derek Scissors, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and U.S.–China Economic Relations, 1 April 2011 7 IMF (2010a); and China Daily, “Overseas Direct Investment to Grow,” December 24, 2010, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-12/24/content_11749290.htm 26 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 27. Footnotes contin. 8 US Treasury Department data: China’s holdings reached US$1,164.3bn end 1H2012 9 MOFCOM officially disagrees with these figures, as they are based on different measurement methods 10 People’s Bank of China, financial statistical report of 1st quarter 2012 A Capital Dragon Index, 2011 Full Year, How fast is China Globalizing: Tracking Chinese 11 Outbound Investments, & 1Q2012 12 The Economic Times, China’s outbound investment touch $21.4 bn in Q1 2012 13 KPMG, 毕马威中国经济全球化观察, 2012 年第二季度 14 Stratfor Global Intelligence, Chinese Investment Offers in Africa, 15 August 2012 15 Rhodium Group, China Invests in Europe – Patterns, Impacts and Policy Implications The figure refers to investments by 私营企业 accoridng to MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2011 16 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment 27 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 28. Other references US-China Economic & Security Review Commission, Going Out: An Overview of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, 30 March 2011 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), A Brave New World, March 2010 PwC, China outbound M&A deal activity powers ahead, 15 August 2011 PwC, China Opportunities: As a market and as an investor, June 2010 MOFCOM, NBS, SAFE, 2009 and 2010 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment The Heritage Foundation, Chinese Outward Investment: More Opportunity than Danger, 13 July 2011 The Heritage Foundation, Derek Scissors, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and U.S.–China Economic Relations , 1 April 2011 Asia Society’s special report, An American Open Door? Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, May 2011 Deloitte, Borderless, boundless, 2011 US-China Economic & Security Review Commission, Backgrounder: China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, 24 June 2011 APCO, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, 10 December 2010 McKinsey&Company, What China’s five-year plan means for business, July 2011 EIU, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan or how to turn an oil tanker round, January 2011 28 www.asianhorizonltd.com
  • 29. Thank You Ricardo Ferrer CEO, Asian Horizon Ltd. www.asianhorizonltd.com Shanghai, 2013 29 www.asianhorizonltd.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Source: Annual values: http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe_en/tjsj_en/tjsj_list_en.jsp?ID=30307000000000000&id=4 Quarterly values: http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe_en/tjsj_en/pic/20120713160956838.xls The values are provided in in 100 million of US dollars
  2. Source: Stock and flow values - http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx