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![08
INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS
CHEVRON
CORPORATION
HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY
OVERVIEW
INDUSTRY &
COMPETITORS
FINANCIAL
ANALYSIS
VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
06/2014 07/2014 08/2014 09/2014 10/2014 11/2014 12/2014 01/2015 02/2015 03/2015 04/2015 05/2015
70.000000
75.000000
80.000000
85.000000
90.000000
95.000000
100.000000
105.000000
110.000000
115.000000BP-LON Price CVX-USA Price FP-PAR Price RDSB-LON Price XOM-USA Price Index Base [100]
BP CVX FP RDSB XOM
BP
100.00% 75.04% 94.90% 66.48% 64.76%
CVX
75.04% 100.00% 73.32% 95.09% 94.79%
FP
94.90% 73.32% 100.00% 68.35% 62.91%
RDSB
66.48% 95.09% 68.35% 100.00% 92.70%
XOM
64.76% 94.79% 62.91% 92.70% 100.00%
COMPETITOR’S PRICE HISTORY AND
CORRELATION MATRIX](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/chevroncorp-161114120700/85/Chevron-corp-9-320.jpg){kind=icon}
![CHEVRON
CORPORATION
HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY
OVERVIEW
INDUSTRY &
COMPETITORS
FINANCIAL
ANALYSIS
VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
VALUATION : Sensitivity
18
Excess Ret % Δ Intrinsic Value $ Δ val GIUDIZIO Rendim Azionario
5.00% -20.00% 158.83 26.32% BUY 51.4%
5.25% -16.00% 151.1 20.17% BUY 44.1%
5.50% -12.00% 143.99 14.52% BUY 37.3%
5.75% -8.00% 137.43 9.30% BUY 31.0%
6.00% -4.00% 131.36 4.47% BUY 25.2%
6.25% 0.00% 125.74 0.00% BUY 19.9%
6.50% 14.34% 120.5 -4.16% BUY 14.9%
6.75% 15.22% 115.63 -8.04% HOLD 10.2%
7.00% 16.09% 111.08 -11.66% HOLD 5.9%
7.25% 16.96% 106.82 -15.04% HOLD 1.8%
7.50% 20.00% 102.82 -18.23% HOLD -2.0%
Rf % Δ Intrinsic Value $ Δ val GIUDIZIO E[Rendim Azionario]
1.00% -54.75% 159.36 26.74% BUY 51.9%
1.25% -43.44% 151.16 20.22% BUY 44.1%
1.50% -32.13% 143.7 14.29% BUY 37.0%
1.75% -20.81% 136.87 8.86% BUY 30.5%
2.00% -9.50% 130.61 3.88% BUY 24.5%
2.21% 0.00% 125.74 0.00% BUY 19.9%
2.50% 14.34% 119.52 -4.94% BUY 13.9%
2.75% 15.22% 114.58 -8.87% HOLD 9.2%
3.00% 16.09% 110 -12.51% HOLD 4.9%
3.25% 16.96% 105.74 -15.90% HOLD 0.8%
3.50% 58.37% 101.76 -19.07% HOLD -3.0%](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/chevroncorp-161114120700/85/Chevron-corp-19-320.jpg){kind=icon}
Uploaded byRostyslav Lytvyn
Chevron corp
The document provides an extensive analysis of Chevron Corporation, including its financial performance, profitability, dividend policy, and stock performance indicators. It highlights key aspects such as corporate governance, strategic business units, and competitive positioning within the industry, as well as presenting financial metrics and market forecasts. Additionally, it includes risk analysis and assumptions related to future growth and dividend strategies.
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Chevron corp
- 1. CHEVRON Corporation I.C.G. IN BANCHE EASSICURAZIONI A cura di Paolo Lelio Galante e Rostyslav Lytvyn V.
- 2. 01 SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS DEFENSIVE COMPANY PROFITABILITY DIVIDEND POLICY STOCKPERFORMANCE KEY INDICATORS STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE STRATEGIC BUSINESS UNITS INDUSTRY KEY FACTORS PORTERS’ 5 FORCES ASSUMPTIONS 3 STAGE DDM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION RELATIVE VALUATION PRICE TARGET MAIN RISKS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPANY OVERVIEW VALUATION INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS RISK ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION CHEVRON CORPORATION
- 3. 02 HIGHLIGHTS Market Profile Last Price 52WLow 52W High Avg. Volumes Market Cap Div Yield 5Y Av Beta 52W EV/EBITDA P/E Institutional Hold. Insider Holdings BUY $ 130Recommendation: Taget Price: 23.93% UPSIDE 104.89 100.86 134.85 6,372,237 $197.2 B 3.2% 1.09 6.70x 11.5x 59% 0.030% CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
- 4. 03 HIGHLIGHTS CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 112.04Mean:100Number of Trajectories: 80Forecasted Days: 12.09Standard Deviation: STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS – Geometric Brownian Motion with GARCH
- 5. 04 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE JOHN S.WATSON CHAIRMAN & CEO At Company Since 1980 Insider Holdings 100,847 Options/ Indirect Shares (as of 04-Mar-'15) 1,913,156 Institutional Ownership 59% Top 10 Institutional Ownership 21% Unknown 41% PATRICIA E. YARRINGTON VICE PRESIDENT & CFO At Company Since 1980 Insider Holdings 16,471 Options/ Indirect Shares (as of 04-Mar-'15) 709,870 TOTAL MEMBERS 33 Management 21 Board 14 AVERAGE AGE 58 YRS Management 55 Board 62 AVERAGE TENURE 17 YRS Management 24 Board 10 INSIDER OWNED 0.030% Management 0.017% Board 0.023% CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
- 6. BOARD OF DIRECTORS MANAGER CHAIRMAN & CEO QUALIFIED ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY& COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 05 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE CHEVRON CORPORATION
- 7. 06 COMPANY OVERVIEW STRATEGIC BUSINESSAREAS – Total Revenues By Business $173.4 B UPSTREAM EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION DOWNSTREAM MANUFACTURING, PRODUCTS & TRASPORTATION ALL OTHER TECHNOLOGY Upstream 27.9% Downstream 71.3% HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 27.9% 71.3% 0.8% CHEVRON CORPORATION
- 8. 07 COMPANY OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY& COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 43% 10.50% 4.70% 3% 3.90% 2.90% 2.40% 2.20% Stati Uniti China Japan UK Germany France Brazil Italy % of Tot. Rev. $173.4B STRATEGIC BUSINESS AREAS – Total Revenues By Country CHEVRON CORPORATION
- 9. 08 INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTSCOMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 06/2014 07/2014 08/2014 09/2014 10/2014 11/2014 12/2014 01/2015 02/2015 03/2015 04/2015 05/2015 70.000000 75.000000 80.000000 85.000000 90.000000 95.000000 100.000000 105.000000 110.000000 115.000000BP-LON Price CVX-USA Price FP-PAR Price RDSB-LON Price XOM-USA Price Index Base [100] BP CVX FP RDSB XOM BP 100.00% 75.04% 94.90% 66.48% 64.76% CVX 75.04% 100.00% 73.32% 95.09% 94.79% FP 94.90% 73.32% 100.00% 68.35% 62.91% RDSB 66.48% 95.09% 68.35% 100.00% 92.70% XOM 64.76% 94.79% 62.91% 92.70% 100.00% COMPETITOR’S PRICE HISTORY AND CORRELATION MATRIX
- 10. 09 INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTSCOMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Company Name Fiscal Period Upstream Income FY1 Downstream Income FY1 Realized Price FY1 Exploration Expense FY1 Dividend Yield Price to Book Value FY1 Price to Earnigs FY1 EV / EBITDA FY1 Return on Equity FY1 Return on Assets FY1 Chevron 03/2015 5741.88 4345.38 43.63 1708.50 3.75% 1.28x 26.00x 7.07x 4.9% 3.0% Average 7745.41 4705.25 42.66 1872.05 5.54% 1.33x 19.55x 6.12x 7.1% 3.3% Median 6276.95 5525.99 42.66 1687.00 5.74% 1.16x 18.20x 5.85x 7.1% 3.7% BP 03/2015 5790.35 6382.10 -- 2373.50 6.04% 1.16x 18.20x 5.85x 6.4% 2.5% ExxonMobil 03/2015 12388.78 4561.28 45.80 1523.50 2.92% 2.05x 20.44x 8.50x 10.0% 4.9% Royal Dutch Shell B 03/2015 5995.99 6936.39 39.52 2563.66 5.31% 1.12x 15.92x 5.62x 7.1% 3.7% Total 03/2015 8275.00 5525.99 -- 1687.00 5.74% 1.28x 14.92x 5.88x 8.6% 3.7% Eni 03/2015 6276.95 120.50-- 1212.58 7.72% 1.03x 28.25x 4.72x 3.6% 1.5% INDUSTRY METRICS – KEY FACTORS
- 11. 10 INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTSCOMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION PORTER’S 5 FORCES 0 1 2 3 4 5 Threat of substitute products Bargaining power of customers Bargaining power of suppliers Threat of new entrants Intensity of rivalry
- 12. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Dec '90 Dec '92 Dec '94 Dec '96 Dec '98 Dec '00 Dec '02 Dec '04 Dec '06 Dec '08 Dec '10 Dec '12 Dec '14 Utili Trattenuti CrescitaUtili Trattenuti 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% 250.00% 300.00% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 Dec'82 Dec'84 Dec'86 Dec'88 Dec'90 Dec'92 Dec'94 Dec'96 Dec'98 Dec'00 Dec'02 Dec'04 Dec'06 Dec'08 Dec'10 Dec'12 Dec'14 Shareholders' Equity Cum. G of Tot Sharehold. Equity FINANCIAL ANALYSIS : ‘Defensive Stock’ CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION P/E adj P/BV adj Grahams’ Ratio DPS Mkt. Cap 10 YoY EPS g Current Ratio 9.13 x 1.36 x 12.41 x 100 Y $197,243 BN 61% 1.33 x 11
- 13. 2014 CURRENT RATIO 1.32 QUICKRATIO 1.12 DEB TOT./PN 17.94 % DEB./TOT. ATTIVO 10.46 % Net Profit margin 10.03 10.12 11.76 ATO 0.74 0.87 1.01 Leverage 1.70 1.69 1.69 ROE 12.6 14.9 20.1 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS : DuPont Analysis CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 2014 2013 2012 ROA 7.4 8.8 11.83 LEVERAGE 1.70 1.69 1.69 ROE 12.6 14.8 20.0 Tax Burden 61.67 59.67 56.50 Interest Burden 1.63 1.31 1.32 Ebit Margin 10.0 12.9 15.8 ATO 0.74 0.87 1.01 Leverage 1.70 1.69 1.69 ROE 12.65 14.85 20.08 -15.9% ROA -15.1% ROE -0.09% NPM -15% ROE -14.9% ATO -22% EBIT margin -15% ROE -14.9% ATO 12
- 14. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS :Margins CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Date '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Dec '14 Sales 142,897 184,922 195,341 203,970 255,112 159,387 189,705 236,541 222,629 211,772 191,755 Net Income 13,037 14,101 17,139 18,688 23,931 10,483 19,024 26,895 26,179 21,423 19,241 Gross Profit 42,846 38,107 43,696 43,698 52,223 28,778 59,064 50,827 44,176 36,479 28,038 CAPEX 6,007 8,701 13,813 16,678 19,666 19,843 19,612 26,500 30,938 37,985 35,407 Net Profit Margin 9.12% 7.63% 8.77% 9.16% 9.38% 6.58% 10.03% 11.37% 11.76% 10.12% 10.03% Gross Margin 29.98% 20.61% 22.37% 21.42% 20.47% 18.06% 31.13% 21.49% 19.84% 17.23% 14.62% CAPEX Ratio 46.08% 61.70% 80.59% 89.24% 82.18% 189.29% 103.09% 98.53% 118.18% 177.31% 184.02% COMPETITIVE PROFIT MARGIN LOWER OIL PRICES EFFECT 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Sales Net Income Net Profit Margin 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Sales Gross Profit Gross Margin 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Net Income CAPEX CAPEX Ratio HIGH CAPITAL INTENSITY 13
- 15. 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% - 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 '04 '05 '06'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Totale num azioni emesse Cash Dividends Paid Div Yield - 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 - 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 EPS (recurring) DPS Payout Ratio FINANCIAL ANALYSIS : Dividend Policy CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION STRONG DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD Data '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 EPS (recurring) 6.17 6.54 7.80 8.77 11.67 5.39 9.61 13.55 13.35 11.16 9.95 Totale num azioni emesse 2,107.12 2,232.69 2,164.56 2,090.43 2,004.23 2,007.72 2,007.48 1,981.17 1,946.70 1,913.60 1,879.65 DPS 1.53 1.75 2.01 2.26 2.53 2.66 2.84 3.09 3.51 3.90 4.21 Payout Ratio 24.92 26.76 25.77 25.77 21.68 50.76 29.96 22.99 26.35 35.17 41.52 Cash Dividends Paid 3,236.00 3,778.00 4,396.00 4,791.00 5,162.00 5,302.00 5,674.00 6,139.00 6,844.00 7,474.00 7,928.00 Repurchase of Common & Pref Stk. 1,663.00 2,737.00 4,491.00 6,389.00 6,821.00 - 306.00 3,193.00 4,142.00 4,494.00 4,412.00 Prezzo per azione a fine anno 37.13 46.35 61.97 82.23 65.55 72.02 88.12 105.59 106.45 124.23 112.18 Div Yield 4.12% 3.78% 3.24% 2.75% 3.86% 3.69% 3.22% 2.93% 3.30% 3.14% 3.75% 14
- 16. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 DPS DPS crescita 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dec '81 Dec '83 Dec '85 Dec '87 Dec '89 Dec '91 Dec '93 Dec '95 Dec '97 Dec '99 Dec '01 Dec '03 Dec '05 Dec '07 Dec '09 Dec '11 Dec '13 OILnom OIL Adj inflaz DPS growth CHEVRON CORPORATION 6.8% CAGR HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION ASSUMPTIONS : Dividends’ Growth 15
- 17. CHEVRON CORPORATION -1 9 2015E 2016E 2017E2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION ASSUMPTIONS : Dividends’ Growth CAGR 6.8% 0% Growth STABLE GROWTH Rfr : Beta : Mkt Risk Premium : Cost of Debt : Tax : Perpetuity Growth : 2.21% 10-Y T const maturity rate 1.21 Bloomberg on CVX 6.25% 1928-2014 Avg Hist Premium 3.191% Corp 10Y Bond 38.9% as of Q3 2014 1.37% Ke : Payout for 1° g phase : 9.77% (CAPM) 41.52% Date 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E EPS 10.14 10.14 10.14 DPS 4.21 4.21 4.21 PV 3.84 3.49 3.18 16
- 18. CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION VALUATION : 3-Stage DDM Date 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E G rate 7.07% 5.99% 4.90% 3.82% 2.73% Payout Ratio 51.02% 60.51% 70.01% 79.51% 89.00% EPS 10.86 11.51 12.07 12.53 12.87 DPS 5.54 6.96 8.45 9.96 11.46 Beta 1.15 1.08 1.02 0.95 0.89 Ke 9.37% 8.97% 8.57% 8.17% 7.77% PV 3.83 4.42 4.94 5.38 5.74 TRANSITION PERIOD Stable Phase g-rate 1.37% Payout in St. Ph. 89.00% Ke in Stable 7.73 % FV 181.43 STABLE PHASE PV Div in low phase 10.51 PV Div in trans ph. 24.31 PV TV 90.92 P0 125.74 VALUATION RESULT 17
- 19. CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION VALUATION : Sensitivity 18 Excess Ret % Δ Intrinsic Value $ Δ val GIUDIZIO Rendim Azionario 5.00% -20.00% 158.83 26.32% BUY 51.4% 5.25% -16.00% 151.1 20.17% BUY 44.1% 5.50% -12.00% 143.99 14.52% BUY 37.3% 5.75% -8.00% 137.43 9.30% BUY 31.0% 6.00% -4.00% 131.36 4.47% BUY 25.2% 6.25% 0.00% 125.74 0.00% BUY 19.9% 6.50% 14.34% 120.5 -4.16% BUY 14.9% 6.75% 15.22% 115.63 -8.04% HOLD 10.2% 7.00% 16.09% 111.08 -11.66% HOLD 5.9% 7.25% 16.96% 106.82 -15.04% HOLD 1.8% 7.50% 20.00% 102.82 -18.23% HOLD -2.0% Rf % Δ Intrinsic Value $ Δ val GIUDIZIO E[Rendim Azionario] 1.00% -54.75% 159.36 26.74% BUY 51.9% 1.25% -43.44% 151.16 20.22% BUY 44.1% 1.50% -32.13% 143.7 14.29% BUY 37.0% 1.75% -20.81% 136.87 8.86% BUY 30.5% 2.00% -9.50% 130.61 3.88% BUY 24.5% 2.21% 0.00% 125.74 0.00% BUY 19.9% 2.50% 14.34% 119.52 -4.94% BUY 13.9% 2.75% 15.22% 114.58 -8.87% HOLD 9.2% 3.00% 16.09% 110 -12.51% HOLD 4.9% 3.25% 16.96% 105.74 -15.90% HOLD 0.8% 3.50% 58.37% 101.76 -19.07% HOLD -3.0%
- 20. CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION VALUATION : MonteCarlo Simulation Frequency 0 100 200 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Simulation Statistics Mean $ 136.37 Median $ 136.33 SD $ 2.60 5th Percentile $ 133.17 95th Percentile $ 139.82 Inputs to simulation : Dividends’ Growth rates (3 stages) Cost of Equity Perpetuity Growth 18 1000 3-Stage DDM Models
- 21. RELATIVE VALUATION CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY& COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 19 P/E Actual FY1 FY2 Mean EV/EBITDA Actual FY1 FY2 Chevron 11.50x 26.08x 16.76x 18.11x 6.73x 7.09x 5.83x BP 44.68x 18.18x 14.38x 25.75x 5.76x 5.86x 5.13x ExxonMobil 13.06x 20.58x 16.14x 16.59x 9.03x 8.56x 7.22x Royal Dutch Shell B 13.31x 15.98x 12.20x 13.83x 5.79x 5.65x 4.62x Total 33.52x 15.04x 12.55x 20.37x 6.13x 5.98x 5.14x Eni SpA ADR 91.56x 28.20x 17.89x 45.88x 4.06x 4.73x 3.84x Gazprom ADR 16.41x 3.55x 3.47x 7.81x 2.32x 2.73x 2.74x Average 32.01x 18.23x 13.34x 21.19x 5.69x 5.80x 4.93x Median 16.41x 18.18x 14.38x 16.32x 5.79x 5.86x 5.13x Actual FY1 FY2 EPS 10.14 10.14 10.14 EBITDA 47,955.00 EPS*AVG P/E IND 324.58 184.85 135.28 EV from med fwd 1Y 280,817.82 EPS*MEDIAN P/E IND 166.40 184.35 145.81 Deb Netto 14,603.00 Minorities 1163.00 G = ROE(1-DIV. PAYOUT %) 7.40 Equity Value 265,051.82 Justified Forward P/E 17.50 # Azioni 1880.478 P P from EV/EBITDA 135.28 140.95
- 22. VALUATION : PriceTarget CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION DDM a 3 Stadi EV/EBITDAP/E TP 21 $ 135.28 $ 140.95 $125.74 70% $136.37 30% 50 % 25 % 25 % $ 130 MONTE CARLO
- 23. LIKELIHOOD 1 2 34 IMPACT 234 Sviluppo dei giacimenti, Concessioni e licenze Volatilità nel prezzo delle commodity Eventualità straordinarie legate all’operatività 1 RISK ANALYSIS CHEVRON CORPORATION 22 HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Fattori umani e naturali, fuori dal controllo di Chevron Stime del Management Assenza di coperture assicurative
- 24. CONCLUSIONS CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION MERITS CONCERNS • Struttura Operativa Diversificata • Nuovi progetti, riduzione del CAPEX e costi fissi assicurano la crescita dei dividendi • Solida situazione patrimoniale e finanziaria • Esperienza del Management • Elevata incertezza sull’andamento dei prezzi del greggio • Incertezza sui tassi d’interesse • Flussi di cassa deboli • Eccessiva Intensità di Capitale CURRENT PRICE TARGET PRICE UPSIDE BUY 104.89 23 130 23.93 %
- 25. 24 QUESTIONS & ANSWERS & NONABBIATE PIETA’! HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATION RISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION
- 26. CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Appendice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 56 99 157 193 182 137 83 40 21 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Frequenze SimulateAssunzioni Pre-Simulazione SD 5.15% (sd storica della crescita dei dividendi) g μ + σ*Z μ Diviendo stimato con il nostro DDM
- 27. CHEVRON CORPORATION HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OVERVIEW INDUSTRY & COMPETITORS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS VALUATIONRISK ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Appendice 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 GAUSSIAN MonteCarlo 1000 Simulations Distrib 0 50 100 150 200 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Price Simulation Frequency
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