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NYSE: TPX
Nick Olmstead | Colin Nguyen | Kyle Gardner | Alex Liscum
1
Overview & Thesis 3
Industry Outlook 6
Key Drivers 8
Valuation
Final Thoughts
Appendix
15
17
18
Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 3
Investment Thesis
Expanding the market particularly in the luxury and e-
commerce segments
Restructuring of management; led by H partners will propel
the company forward
Strong brand reputation will perpetuate growth in new
segments and sustain success in established areas
We recommend Tempur-Sealy as a BUY with a 12 month price
target of $74.00 representing a 26.97% upside from their current
price
4Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky
Develops, manufactures, and markets
mattresses, foundations, pillows and other
products
Operating in over 100 countries worldwide
Description & Operations Brands
Manufacturing Distribution
Company Overview
Sources: Company 10-K, Investor Presentation, Earnings Call
Highly Recognized brands include Tempur,
Sealy, Tempur-Pedic, Sealy Posturepedic,
Stearns & Foster, and Cocoon by Sealy
Brands are complementary and fully cover
the market
26 company operated worldwide
manufacturing facilities
Bedding represents 91.6% of net sales
Other products such as pillows, mattress
covers, sheets, cushions, etc. make up 8.4%
of net sales
45% of sales come from bedding specialty
retail
Furniture retail comprises 30%
Department stores make up 10%
Direct-to-customer growing at twice the
rate of third-party retail
5Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Higher ASP from growing luxury mattress
demand
Emerging e-commerce presence
Rise of specialty bedding retail
Trends Market Share
Consolidation Non U.S Mattress Sales
Industry Overview
Sources: TheRobinReport
Serta and Simmons in 2012
Tempur-Pedic and Sealy in 2012
Mattress Firm and Sleepy’s in 2015
12.8
14
15.7
16
16.6
17.3
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TotalSalesinBillionsof$
Years
32%
39%
24%
5%
Tempur Sealy
Simmon
Others
Select Comfort
Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 6
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Power of Suppliers: Low
Commodity inputs with low
switching costs
Power of Customers:
Medium
Few alternative products, fairly
dependent on economic
climate
Threats of Entrants:
Medium
Economies of scale, brand
identity, e-commerce
Threat of Substitutes: Low
Few alternatives
Rivalry Among
Competitors: Medium
Few major players, rely
heavily on innovation and
brand loyalty
7Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Per Capita Disposable Income Value of Residential Construction
World Price of Crude World Price of Steel
Industry Tailwinds
Source: US-Mattress.com Survey Results
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ValueinBillionsof$
Years
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
PricePerBarrel
Year
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
40000
41000
42000
43000
44000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
PerCapitaDisposableIncome
Years
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Index
Year
8Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Dynamics
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Full Coverage of Market Segmented Revenue
Recently launched “bed in a box” brand to
challenge Casper and other e-commerce
startups
Direct to consumer is Tempur-Sealy’s
fastest growing channel
Brand Portfolio
Cocoon
Luxury
60%
Mid
Price
25%
Value
15%
9Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Bed in a Box Luxury
Expanded Markets
Sources: The Age Curve, Investor Presentation
Segment has seen disruptions from Casper
and other bed in a box, ecommerce retailers
Direct to consumer is the fastest growing
channel for Tempur-Sealy
Growth driven by aging population and
higher per capita disposable incomes
Latex mattresses…all natural mattresses
are meeting the demands of Boomers who
can’t sleep and driving average-unit sale
prices through the roof”
“The bedding and mattress business is the
bright spot in the overall furniture
business”
-- Kenneth W. Gronbach, author of
The Age Curve: How to Profit from
the Coming Demographic Storm
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Age 18-34 Brand Preference
Tempur-Pedic Sealy Simons Serta Other
10Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Brands Most Likely to be Bought Brand Preference by Age Group
Sleep Quality by Gender Advertising Investments
Strong Brand Reputation
Sources: US-Mattress.com Survey Results, Investor Presentation
14%
29%
44%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
Select Comfort Simon Serta Tempur Sealy
%ofConsumerPreferance
Brands
2
3
4
5
Tempur-Pedic Sealy Serta Simmons Other
Excellent
Average
Poor Brands
Men Women
274
327
361
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2014 2015
Advertisinginmillionsof$
Year
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
18 - 34 35 -52 55+
BrandPreference
Age Group
Tempur-Pedic Sealy Simons Serta Other
11Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Old Management New Management
Scott Thompson H Partners
Management & H Partners
Sources: Forbes, H Partners
TPX underperformed peers
CEO paid $18M to oversee $1.6B loss of
equity in a 3 year span
2012-2015 Long-term earnings
expectations declined by 60%
2012: Stock dropped 40%
CEO: Scott Thompson
2 Board Members were replaced
Aspirational Plan
Previously CEO of Dollar Thrifty until
purchased by Hertz in 2012
Founder of Group 1 Automotive; NYSE
and Fortune 500 Company
New York Activist Hedge Fund
CEO: Rehan Jaffer
Fund went from $15M to $1.6B in a
decade
Protégé of Dan Loeb at Third Point
Successful turnaround of Six Flags
Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 12
Management Aspirational Plan
Source: H Partners Presentation
Goal: Create significant stockholder value
Over 1,000,000 PRSUs granted to 12 executives
+ 200 additional employees IF…
EBITDA increases 200M by 2017 (current:
400M)
All PRSUs will vest if EBITDA of $650 is
achieved for 2017
One third will vest if completed by 2018
13Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
SWOT Analysis
Source: Investor Presentation, 10-K
Strong management team
Strong brand reputation
Free-cash-flow
Cyclical industry
Reliance on top customers
Leverage profile
Global industry growth
Bed in a box segment
Favorable U.S macroeconomic conditions
Aging U.S population
E-Commerce
Danish tax issue
Exchange rates
14Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Comparable Companies Analysis Football Field
DCF (Perpetuity & EBITDA Methods) Sensitized Valuations
Valuation
EV/Sales, P/E, and EV/EBITDA were used
to derive an implied share price
Implied share price range of $47.68-$73.53
WACC of 8.3% was used
Perpetuity growth was assumed to occur at
2.0%
EBITDA Exit Multiple was calculated to be
13.4x
$40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00
Exit Multiple
Perpetuity
Comparables - EV/EBITDA
Comparables - EV/Sales
Comparables - P/E
Perpetuity Growth Rate
$78.33 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3%
WACC
9.0% $64.48 $65.90 $67.39 $68.93 $70.55
8.8% $67.61 $69.15 $70.76 $72.45 $74.21
8.5% $70.98 $72.65 $74.40 $76.23 $78.15
8.3% $74.61 $76.43 $78.33 $80.34 $82.44
8.0% $78.52 $80.51 $82.60 $84.79 $87.10
7.8% $82.76 $84.94 $87.23 $89.64 $92.19
7.5% $87.37 $89.77 $92.29 $94.95 $97.77
Exit Multiple
$89.17 12.2x 12.8x 13.4x 14.0x 14.6x
WACC
9.0% $78.18 $81.99 $85.80 $89.60 $93.41
8.8% $79.20 $83.05 $86.91 $90.76 $94.61
8.5% $80.24 $84.14 $88.03 $91.93 $95.82
8.3% $81.29 $85.23 $89.17 $93.11 $97.05
8.0% $82.35 $86.34 $90.33 $94.31 $98.30
7.8% $83.43 $87.47 $91.50 $95.53 $99.56
7.5% $84.53 $88.61 $92.69 $96.77 $100.85
15Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix
Perpetuity Growth Method Calculation of WACC
EBITDA Exit Multiple Method Comparable Companies Analysis
Valuation
Perpetuity Method
Present Value of Projection Period $1,207
2020 Free Cash Flow $367
Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.0%
Terminal Value $7,142
Years 5.0
Present Value of Terminal Value $4,800
Total Enterprise Value $6,007
Less: Debt $1,273
Plus: Cash $154
Equity Value $4,888
Per Share Price $78.33
WACC Calculation
Total Debt 1,273 25.8%
Totel Equity
3,671
74.2%
4,944 1
Beta 1.38
Risk free Rate 1.72%
Market Risk Premium 6.00%
Cost of Equity 10.00%
Pre-tax Cost of Debt 5.05%
Tax Rate 35%
Cost of Debt 3.28%
WACC 8.3%
EBITDA Exit Multiple Method
Present Value of Projection Period $1,207
2020 EBITDA $610
EBITDA Multiple 13.4x
Terminal Value $8,148
Years 5.0
Present Value of Terminal Value $5,477
Total Enterprise Value $6,684
Equity Value $5,564
Per Share Price $89.17
Name Ticker Market Cap EV
EV/EBITDA
LTM 2014A 2015A
Tempur Sealy TPX $3,584.2 $4,897.5 12.6x 13.4x 15.0x
Mattress Firm Holding Corp
MFRM $1,551.9 $2,241.1 8.1x 12.8x 19.8x
Select Comfort Corp SCSS $907.7 $871.5 6.5x 8.4x 8.8x
Tuesday Morning Corp TUES $353.9 $318.6 11.4x 15.2x 15.0x
Armstrong World Industries AWI $2,309.5 $3,067.7 9.5x 12.9x 10.8x
Leggett & Platt Inc LEG $6,567.0 $7,274.7 10.3x 12.4x 12.4x
Overview &
Thesis
Industry
Outlook
Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 16
Final Thoughts
Main Points
Expanding the market particularly in the luxury and e-
commerce segments
Restructuring of management; led by H partners will propel
the company forward
Strong brand reputation will perpetuate growth in new
segments and sustain success in established areas
We recommend Tempur-Sealy as a BUY with a 12 month price
target of $74.00 representing a 26.97% upside from their current
price
Appendix
18
Tempur Sealy
Income Statement ($ in Millions)
Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 30 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales $2,990 $3,151 $3,322 $3,503 $3,694 $3,896 $4,110
Cost of sales 1,839 1,902 2,003 2,109 2,221 2,340 2,465
Gross profit $1,150 $1,249 $1,319 $1,394 $1,473 $1,557 $1,645
Selling and marketing expenses $620 $648 $674 $701 $735 $768 $802
General, administrative and other expenses 281 322 316 326 332 347 358
Equity income in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (8) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12)
Royalty income, net of royalty expense (18) (18) (18) (18) (18) (18) (18)
Operating (loss) income $276 $309 $359 $398 $436 $473 $517
Other expense, net:
Interest expense, net $92 $96 $95 $93 $87 $94 $91
Loss on disposal, net 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other expense (income), net (14) 13 0 0 0 0 0
Total other expense 101 109 109 109 109 109 109
Income before income taxes $175 $200 $250 $289 $327 $364 $408
Income tax provision 65 125 76 88 100 111 124
Net income before non-controlling interest $110 $75 $174 $201 $227 $253 $283
Less: net income attributable to non-controlling interest 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Net income attributable to Tempur Sealy International, Inc. $109 $74 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282
Earnings per common share:
Basic (in dollars per share) $1.79 $1.19 $2.80 $3.23 $3.66 $4.08 $4.57
Diluted (in dollars per share) $1.75 $1.17 $2.76 $3.19 $3.61 $4.02 $4.51
Weighted average common shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares) 60.80 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70
Diluted (in shares) 62.10 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60
Assumptions:
Net sales growth 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
Cost of sales as a % of Net sales 61.5% 60.4% 60.3% 60.2% 60.1% 60.0% 60.0%
Selling and marketing expenses as a % od Net sales 20.7% 20.6% 20.3% 20.0% 19.9% 19.7% 19.5%
General, administrative and other expenses as a % of Net sales 9.4% 10.2% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.9% 8.7%
Incom tax rate 37.1% 62.7% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5%
19
Tempur Sealy
Balance Sheet ($ in Millions)
Fiscal Yeat Ended Dec. 30 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236 $191
Accounts receivable, net 386 379 394 412 430 448 465
Inventories 217 199 209 221 233 245 257
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 57 77 81 85 90 95 100
Total Current Assets $722 $809 $749 $881 $784 $1,023 $1,013
Property, plant and equipment, net $356 $362 $355 $348 $340 $332 $323
Goodwill 737 709 709 709 709 709 709
Other intangible assets, net 727 695 695 695 695 695 695
Deferred income taxes 11 12 12 12 12 12 12
Other non-current assets 31 68 68 68 68 68 68
Total Assets $2,583 $2,656 $2,589 $2,713 $2,609 $2,840 $2,821
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable $226 $266 $280 $296 $312 $329 $346
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 233 254 $268 $282 $298 $314 $331
Income taxes payable 12 11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11
Current portion of long-term debt 66 182 $182 $182 $182 $182 $182
Total Current Liabilities $538 $713 $740 $771 $803 $836 $870
Long-term debt, net $1,498 $1,273 $1,106 $1,050 $739 $735 $450
Deferred income taxes 217 195 195 195 195 195 195
Other non-current liabilities 114 171 171 171 171 171 171
Total Liabilities $2,367 $2,353 $2,213 $2,188 $1,908 $1,938 $1,687
Redeemable non-controlling interest 13 12 12 12 12 12 12
Stockholders' Equity
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 300.0 shares authorized; 99.2 million shares issued as of December 31, 2015 and 2014$1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Additional paid in capital 412 463 463 463 463 463 463
Retained earnings 1,037 1,110 1,183 1,333 1,508 1,710 1,942
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (56) (110) (110) (110) (110) (110) (110)
Treasury stock at cost; 36.8 and 38.3 shares as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively (1,191) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174)
Total Stockholders’ Equity 203 290 363 513 688 890 1,122
Total Liabilities, Redeemable Non-Controlling Interest and Stockholders’ Equity $2,583 $2,656 $2,589 $2,713 $2,609 $2,840 $2,821
Metrics & Drivers
Net Earnings $109 $74 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282
Cash Ratio 0.12 0.22 0.09 0.21 0.04 0.28 0.22
Return on Equity 53.7% 25.3% 47.6% 38.9% 32.8% 28.3% 25.1%
x Net Debt $1,436 $1,119 $1,041 $888 $707 $499 $260
20
Tempur Sealy
Statement of Cash Flows ($ in Millions)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net income before non-controlling interest $110 $75 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization 76 71 $75 $79 $84 $88 $93
Amortization of stock-based compensation 13 23 0 0 0 0 0
Amortization of deferred financing costs 13 20 0 0 0 0 0
Write-off of deferred financing costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bad debt expense 5 7 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred income taxes (27) (21) 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends received from unconsolidated affiliates 2 9 0 0 0 0 0
Equity income in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (8) (12) 0 0 0 0 0
Non-cash interest expense on 8.0% Sealy Notes 5 6 0 0 0 0 0
Loss on sale of assets 4 2 0 0 0 0 0
Loss on disposal of business 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Foreign currency transaction adjustments and other 2 6 0 0 0 0 0
Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effect of business acquisitions:
Accounts receivable (59) (35) (15) (18) (17) (18) (18)
Inventories (34) 11 (10) (12) (12) (12) (12)
Prepaid expenses and other current assets (15) (59) (4) (4) (5) (5) (5)
Accounts payable 48 46 14 16 16 17 17
Accrued expenses and other 57 90 14 15 15 16 17
Income taxes 11 (4) 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash provided by operating activities $225 $234 $247 $276 $307 $338 $374
Cash Flows From Investing Activities:
Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired (9) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from disposition of business 44 7 0 0 0 0 0
Purchases of property, plant and equipment (48) (66) (68) (72) (76) (80) (85)
Other 2 (1) 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash used in investing activities ($10) ($60) ($68) ($72) ($76) ($80) ($85)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities:
Proceeds from 2012 credit agreement $272 $414 - - - - - - - - - -
Repayments of 2012 credit agreement (511) (988) (167) (56) (311) (4) (285)
Proceeds from issuance of Senior Notes 0 450 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from 2011 credit facility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Repayments of 2011 credit facility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from exercise of stock options 4 20 0 0 0 0 0
Excess tax benefit from stock based compensation 2 22 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from issuance of treasury stock by CEO 0 5 0 0 0 0 0
Treasury stock repurchased (2) (1) (100) (50) (50) (50) (50)
Payments of deferred financing costs (3) (8) 0 0 0 0 0
Other 1 (4) 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities ($238) ($91) ($267) ($106) ($361) ($54) ($335)
Net Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivilents (5) (8) 0 0 0 0 0
Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (19) 91 (89) 97 (130) 203 (45)
Cash and Cash Equivilents (beginning of period) $81 $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236
Cash and Cash Equivilents (end of period) $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236 $191
21
Tempur Sealy
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in Millions)
Fiscal Year Ended
2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
DiscountedCash FlowAnalysis
Years 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Revenue $3,322 $3,503 $3,694 $3,896 $4,110
Less: Operating Expenses 2,962 3,105 3,258 3,424 3,594
Operating Profit $359 $398 $436 $473 $517
Taxes @ 30.5% 110 121 133 144 158
Tax-Effected EBIT $250 $276 $303 $328 $359
Plus: Depreciation $75 $79 $84 $88 $93
Change in Working Capital (2) (3) (2) (2) (1)
Less: Capital Expenditures (68) (72) (76) (80) (85)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $255 $280 $308 $334 $367
9.9% 9.9% 8.5% 9.6%
Present Value @ a Discount Rate of: 8.3% $236 $239 $243 $243 $246
Present Value of Projection Period 1,207
22
LTM 2014A 2015A LTM 2014A 2015A LTM 2014 2015A
Tempur Sealy TPX $3,584.2 $4,897.5 12.6x 13.4x 15.0x 1.8x 1.6x 1.8x 34.0x 23.0x 35.2x
Mattress Firm Holding CorpMFRM $1,551.9 $2,241.1 8.1x 12.8x 19.8x .8x 1.3x 1.5x 17.9x 25.3x 28.0x
Select Comfort Corp SCSS $907.7 $871.5 6.5x 8.4x 8.8x .8x 1.1x 1.1x 13.9x 19.7x 22.8x
Tuesday Morning Corp TUES $353.9 $318.6 11.4x 15.2x 15.0x .4x .6x .7x 61.4x 46.9x 46.9x
Armstrong World IndustriesAWI $2,309.5 $3,067.7 9.5x 12.9x 10.8x 1.4x 1.6x 1.4x 29.3x 31.2x 31.2x
Leggett & Platt Inc LEG $6,567.0 $7,274.7 10.3x 12.4x 12.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.6x 20.5x 17.6x 17.6x
ImpliedValuation
3rd Quartile $73.53 $60.33 $62.76
Implied Enterprise Value (Mean) $57.56 $50.71 $56.34
Implied Enterprise Value (Median) $63.55 $47.05 $58.97
1st Quartile $47.68 $39.63 $45.80
3rd Quartile 10.3x 12.9x 15.0x 1.4x 1.4x 1.5x 29.3x 31.2x 31.2x
Median 9.5x 12.8x 12.4x .8x 1.3x 1.4x 20.5x 25.3x 28.0x
Mean 9.2x 12.4x 13.4x 1.0x 1.2x 1.3x 28.6x 28.1x 29.3x
1st Quartile 8.1x 12.4x 10.8x .8x 1.1x 1.1x 17.9x 19.7x 22.8x
P/E
Name Ticker Market Cap EV
EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
23

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Cleveland Research Company 2016 Stock Pitch Competition- Tempur Selay Finalist

  • 1. NYSE: TPX Nick Olmstead | Colin Nguyen | Kyle Gardner | Alex Liscum 1
  • 2. Overview & Thesis 3 Industry Outlook 6 Key Drivers 8 Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 15 17 18
  • 3. Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 3 Investment Thesis Expanding the market particularly in the luxury and e- commerce segments Restructuring of management; led by H partners will propel the company forward Strong brand reputation will perpetuate growth in new segments and sustain success in established areas We recommend Tempur-Sealy as a BUY with a 12 month price target of $74.00 representing a 26.97% upside from their current price
  • 4. 4Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky Develops, manufactures, and markets mattresses, foundations, pillows and other products Operating in over 100 countries worldwide Description & Operations Brands Manufacturing Distribution Company Overview Sources: Company 10-K, Investor Presentation, Earnings Call Highly Recognized brands include Tempur, Sealy, Tempur-Pedic, Sealy Posturepedic, Stearns & Foster, and Cocoon by Sealy Brands are complementary and fully cover the market 26 company operated worldwide manufacturing facilities Bedding represents 91.6% of net sales Other products such as pillows, mattress covers, sheets, cushions, etc. make up 8.4% of net sales 45% of sales come from bedding specialty retail Furniture retail comprises 30% Department stores make up 10% Direct-to-customer growing at twice the rate of third-party retail
  • 5. 5Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Higher ASP from growing luxury mattress demand Emerging e-commerce presence Rise of specialty bedding retail Trends Market Share Consolidation Non U.S Mattress Sales Industry Overview Sources: TheRobinReport Serta and Simmons in 2012 Tempur-Pedic and Sealy in 2012 Mattress Firm and Sleepy’s in 2015 12.8 14 15.7 16 16.6 17.3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TotalSalesinBillionsof$ Years 32% 39% 24% 5% Tempur Sealy Simmon Others Select Comfort
  • 6. Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 6 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Power of Suppliers: Low Commodity inputs with low switching costs Power of Customers: Medium Few alternative products, fairly dependent on economic climate Threats of Entrants: Medium Economies of scale, brand identity, e-commerce Threat of Substitutes: Low Few alternatives Rivalry Among Competitors: Medium Few major players, rely heavily on innovation and brand loyalty
  • 7. 7Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Per Capita Disposable Income Value of Residential Construction World Price of Crude World Price of Steel Industry Tailwinds Source: US-Mattress.com Survey Results 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ValueinBillionsof$ Years 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 PricePerBarrel Year 34000 35000 36000 37000 38000 39000 40000 41000 42000 43000 44000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PerCapitaDisposableIncome Years 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Index Year
  • 8. 8Overview & Thesis Industry Dynamics Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Full Coverage of Market Segmented Revenue Recently launched “bed in a box” brand to challenge Casper and other e-commerce startups Direct to consumer is Tempur-Sealy’s fastest growing channel Brand Portfolio Cocoon Luxury 60% Mid Price 25% Value 15%
  • 9. 9Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Bed in a Box Luxury Expanded Markets Sources: The Age Curve, Investor Presentation Segment has seen disruptions from Casper and other bed in a box, ecommerce retailers Direct to consumer is the fastest growing channel for Tempur-Sealy Growth driven by aging population and higher per capita disposable incomes Latex mattresses…all natural mattresses are meeting the demands of Boomers who can’t sleep and driving average-unit sale prices through the roof” “The bedding and mattress business is the bright spot in the overall furniture business” -- Kenneth W. Gronbach, author of The Age Curve: How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Age 18-34 Brand Preference Tempur-Pedic Sealy Simons Serta Other
  • 10. 10Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Brands Most Likely to be Bought Brand Preference by Age Group Sleep Quality by Gender Advertising Investments Strong Brand Reputation Sources: US-Mattress.com Survey Results, Investor Presentation 14% 29% 44% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% Select Comfort Simon Serta Tempur Sealy %ofConsumerPreferance Brands 2 3 4 5 Tempur-Pedic Sealy Serta Simmons Other Excellent Average Poor Brands Men Women 274 327 361 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 Advertisinginmillionsof$ Year 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 18 - 34 35 -52 55+ BrandPreference Age Group Tempur-Pedic Sealy Simons Serta Other
  • 11. 11Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Old Management New Management Scott Thompson H Partners Management & H Partners Sources: Forbes, H Partners TPX underperformed peers CEO paid $18M to oversee $1.6B loss of equity in a 3 year span 2012-2015 Long-term earnings expectations declined by 60% 2012: Stock dropped 40% CEO: Scott Thompson 2 Board Members were replaced Aspirational Plan Previously CEO of Dollar Thrifty until purchased by Hertz in 2012 Founder of Group 1 Automotive; NYSE and Fortune 500 Company New York Activist Hedge Fund CEO: Rehan Jaffer Fund went from $15M to $1.6B in a decade Protégé of Dan Loeb at Third Point Successful turnaround of Six Flags
  • 12. Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 12 Management Aspirational Plan Source: H Partners Presentation Goal: Create significant stockholder value Over 1,000,000 PRSUs granted to 12 executives + 200 additional employees IF… EBITDA increases 200M by 2017 (current: 400M) All PRSUs will vest if EBITDA of $650 is achieved for 2017 One third will vest if completed by 2018
  • 13. 13Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats SWOT Analysis Source: Investor Presentation, 10-K Strong management team Strong brand reputation Free-cash-flow Cyclical industry Reliance on top customers Leverage profile Global industry growth Bed in a box segment Favorable U.S macroeconomic conditions Aging U.S population E-Commerce Danish tax issue Exchange rates
  • 14. 14Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Comparable Companies Analysis Football Field DCF (Perpetuity & EBITDA Methods) Sensitized Valuations Valuation EV/Sales, P/E, and EV/EBITDA were used to derive an implied share price Implied share price range of $47.68-$73.53 WACC of 8.3% was used Perpetuity growth was assumed to occur at 2.0% EBITDA Exit Multiple was calculated to be 13.4x $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 Exit Multiple Perpetuity Comparables - EV/EBITDA Comparables - EV/Sales Comparables - P/E Perpetuity Growth Rate $78.33 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% WACC 9.0% $64.48 $65.90 $67.39 $68.93 $70.55 8.8% $67.61 $69.15 $70.76 $72.45 $74.21 8.5% $70.98 $72.65 $74.40 $76.23 $78.15 8.3% $74.61 $76.43 $78.33 $80.34 $82.44 8.0% $78.52 $80.51 $82.60 $84.79 $87.10 7.8% $82.76 $84.94 $87.23 $89.64 $92.19 7.5% $87.37 $89.77 $92.29 $94.95 $97.77 Exit Multiple $89.17 12.2x 12.8x 13.4x 14.0x 14.6x WACC 9.0% $78.18 $81.99 $85.80 $89.60 $93.41 8.8% $79.20 $83.05 $86.91 $90.76 $94.61 8.5% $80.24 $84.14 $88.03 $91.93 $95.82 8.3% $81.29 $85.23 $89.17 $93.11 $97.05 8.0% $82.35 $86.34 $90.33 $94.31 $98.30 7.8% $83.43 $87.47 $91.50 $95.53 $99.56 7.5% $84.53 $88.61 $92.69 $96.77 $100.85
  • 15. 15Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix Perpetuity Growth Method Calculation of WACC EBITDA Exit Multiple Method Comparable Companies Analysis Valuation Perpetuity Method Present Value of Projection Period $1,207 2020 Free Cash Flow $367 Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.0% Terminal Value $7,142 Years 5.0 Present Value of Terminal Value $4,800 Total Enterprise Value $6,007 Less: Debt $1,273 Plus: Cash $154 Equity Value $4,888 Per Share Price $78.33 WACC Calculation Total Debt 1,273 25.8% Totel Equity 3,671 74.2% 4,944 1 Beta 1.38 Risk free Rate 1.72% Market Risk Premium 6.00% Cost of Equity 10.00% Pre-tax Cost of Debt 5.05% Tax Rate 35% Cost of Debt 3.28% WACC 8.3% EBITDA Exit Multiple Method Present Value of Projection Period $1,207 2020 EBITDA $610 EBITDA Multiple 13.4x Terminal Value $8,148 Years 5.0 Present Value of Terminal Value $5,477 Total Enterprise Value $6,684 Equity Value $5,564 Per Share Price $89.17 Name Ticker Market Cap EV EV/EBITDA LTM 2014A 2015A Tempur Sealy TPX $3,584.2 $4,897.5 12.6x 13.4x 15.0x Mattress Firm Holding Corp MFRM $1,551.9 $2,241.1 8.1x 12.8x 19.8x Select Comfort Corp SCSS $907.7 $871.5 6.5x 8.4x 8.8x Tuesday Morning Corp TUES $353.9 $318.6 11.4x 15.2x 15.0x Armstrong World Industries AWI $2,309.5 $3,067.7 9.5x 12.9x 10.8x Leggett & Platt Inc LEG $6,567.0 $7,274.7 10.3x 12.4x 12.4x
  • 16. Overview & Thesis Industry Outlook Key Drivers Valuation Final Thoughts Appendix 16 Final Thoughts Main Points Expanding the market particularly in the luxury and e- commerce segments Restructuring of management; led by H partners will propel the company forward Strong brand reputation will perpetuate growth in new segments and sustain success in established areas We recommend Tempur-Sealy as a BUY with a 12 month price target of $74.00 representing a 26.97% upside from their current price
  • 18. 18 Tempur Sealy Income Statement ($ in Millions) Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 30 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net sales $2,990 $3,151 $3,322 $3,503 $3,694 $3,896 $4,110 Cost of sales 1,839 1,902 2,003 2,109 2,221 2,340 2,465 Gross profit $1,150 $1,249 $1,319 $1,394 $1,473 $1,557 $1,645 Selling and marketing expenses $620 $648 $674 $701 $735 $768 $802 General, administrative and other expenses 281 322 316 326 332 347 358 Equity income in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (8) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) Royalty income, net of royalty expense (18) (18) (18) (18) (18) (18) (18) Operating (loss) income $276 $309 $359 $398 $436 $473 $517 Other expense, net: Interest expense, net $92 $96 $95 $93 $87 $94 $91 Loss on disposal, net 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other expense (income), net (14) 13 0 0 0 0 0 Total other expense 101 109 109 109 109 109 109 Income before income taxes $175 $200 $250 $289 $327 $364 $408 Income tax provision 65 125 76 88 100 111 124 Net income before non-controlling interest $110 $75 $174 $201 $227 $253 $283 Less: net income attributable to non-controlling interest 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Net income attributable to Tempur Sealy International, Inc. $109 $74 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282 Earnings per common share: Basic (in dollars per share) $1.79 $1.19 $2.80 $3.23 $3.66 $4.08 $4.57 Diluted (in dollars per share) $1.75 $1.17 $2.76 $3.19 $3.61 $4.02 $4.51 Weighted average common shares outstanding: Basic (in shares) 60.80 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70 61.70 Diluted (in shares) 62.10 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60 62.60 Assumptions: Net sales growth 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Cost of sales as a % of Net sales 61.5% 60.4% 60.3% 60.2% 60.1% 60.0% 60.0% Selling and marketing expenses as a % od Net sales 20.7% 20.6% 20.3% 20.0% 19.9% 19.7% 19.5% General, administrative and other expenses as a % of Net sales 9.4% 10.2% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.9% 8.7% Incom tax rate 37.1% 62.7% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5%
  • 19. 19 Tempur Sealy Balance Sheet ($ in Millions) Fiscal Yeat Ended Dec. 30 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Current Assets: Cash and cash equivalents $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236 $191 Accounts receivable, net 386 379 394 412 430 448 465 Inventories 217 199 209 221 233 245 257 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 57 77 81 85 90 95 100 Total Current Assets $722 $809 $749 $881 $784 $1,023 $1,013 Property, plant and equipment, net $356 $362 $355 $348 $340 $332 $323 Goodwill 737 709 709 709 709 709 709 Other intangible assets, net 727 695 695 695 695 695 695 Deferred income taxes 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 Other non-current assets 31 68 68 68 68 68 68 Total Assets $2,583 $2,656 $2,589 $2,713 $2,609 $2,840 $2,821 Current Liabilities: Accounts payable $226 $266 $280 $296 $312 $329 $346 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 233 254 $268 $282 $298 $314 $331 Income taxes payable 12 11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 Current portion of long-term debt 66 182 $182 $182 $182 $182 $182 Total Current Liabilities $538 $713 $740 $771 $803 $836 $870 Long-term debt, net $1,498 $1,273 $1,106 $1,050 $739 $735 $450 Deferred income taxes 217 195 195 195 195 195 195 Other non-current liabilities 114 171 171 171 171 171 171 Total Liabilities $2,367 $2,353 $2,213 $2,188 $1,908 $1,938 $1,687 Redeemable non-controlling interest 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 Stockholders' Equity Common stock, $0.01 par value, 300.0 shares authorized; 99.2 million shares issued as of December 31, 2015 and 2014$1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 Additional paid in capital 412 463 463 463 463 463 463 Retained earnings 1,037 1,110 1,183 1,333 1,508 1,710 1,942 Accumulated other comprehensive loss (56) (110) (110) (110) (110) (110) (110) Treasury stock at cost; 36.8 and 38.3 shares as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively (1,191) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) (1,174) Total Stockholders’ Equity 203 290 363 513 688 890 1,122 Total Liabilities, Redeemable Non-Controlling Interest and Stockholders’ Equity $2,583 $2,656 $2,589 $2,713 $2,609 $2,840 $2,821 Metrics & Drivers Net Earnings $109 $74 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282 Cash Ratio 0.12 0.22 0.09 0.21 0.04 0.28 0.22 Return on Equity 53.7% 25.3% 47.6% 38.9% 32.8% 28.3% 25.1% x Net Debt $1,436 $1,119 $1,041 $888 $707 $499 $260
  • 20. 20 Tempur Sealy Statement of Cash Flows ($ in Millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net income before non-controlling interest $110 $75 $173 $199 $226 $251 $282 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 76 71 $75 $79 $84 $88 $93 Amortization of stock-based compensation 13 23 0 0 0 0 0 Amortization of deferred financing costs 13 20 0 0 0 0 0 Write-off of deferred financing costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bad debt expense 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 Deferred income taxes (27) (21) 0 0 0 0 0 Dividends received from unconsolidated affiliates 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 Equity income in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (8) (12) 0 0 0 0 0 Non-cash interest expense on 8.0% Sealy Notes 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 Loss on sale of assets 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 Loss on disposal of business 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 Foreign currency transaction adjustments and other 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effect of business acquisitions: Accounts receivable (59) (35) (15) (18) (17) (18) (18) Inventories (34) 11 (10) (12) (12) (12) (12) Prepaid expenses and other current assets (15) (59) (4) (4) (5) (5) (5) Accounts payable 48 46 14 16 16 17 17 Accrued expenses and other 57 90 14 15 15 16 17 Income taxes 11 (4) 0 0 0 0 0 Net cash provided by operating activities $225 $234 $247 $276 $307 $338 $374 Cash Flows From Investing Activities: Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired (9) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Proceeds from disposition of business 44 7 0 0 0 0 0 Purchases of property, plant and equipment (48) (66) (68) (72) (76) (80) (85) Other 2 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 Net cash used in investing activities ($10) ($60) ($68) ($72) ($76) ($80) ($85) Cash Flows From Financing Activities: Proceeds from 2012 credit agreement $272 $414 - - - - - - - - - - Repayments of 2012 credit agreement (511) (988) (167) (56) (311) (4) (285) Proceeds from issuance of Senior Notes 0 450 0 0 0 0 0 Proceeds from 2011 credit facility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Repayments of 2011 credit facility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Proceeds from exercise of stock options 4 20 0 0 0 0 0 Excess tax benefit from stock based compensation 2 22 0 0 0 0 0 Proceeds from issuance of treasury stock by CEO 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Treasury stock repurchased (2) (1) (100) (50) (50) (50) (50) Payments of deferred financing costs (3) (8) 0 0 0 0 0 Other 1 (4) 0 0 0 0 0 Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities ($238) ($91) ($267) ($106) ($361) ($54) ($335) Net Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivilents (5) (8) 0 0 0 0 0 Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (19) 91 (89) 97 (130) 203 (45) Cash and Cash Equivilents (beginning of period) $81 $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236 Cash and Cash Equivilents (end of period) $63 $154 $65 $162 $33 $236 $191
  • 21. 21 Tempur Sealy Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ($ in Millions) Fiscal Year Ended 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E DiscountedCash FlowAnalysis Years 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Revenue $3,322 $3,503 $3,694 $3,896 $4,110 Less: Operating Expenses 2,962 3,105 3,258 3,424 3,594 Operating Profit $359 $398 $436 $473 $517 Taxes @ 30.5% 110 121 133 144 158 Tax-Effected EBIT $250 $276 $303 $328 $359 Plus: Depreciation $75 $79 $84 $88 $93 Change in Working Capital (2) (3) (2) (2) (1) Less: Capital Expenditures (68) (72) (76) (80) (85) Unlevered Free Cash Flow $255 $280 $308 $334 $367 9.9% 9.9% 8.5% 9.6% Present Value @ a Discount Rate of: 8.3% $236 $239 $243 $243 $246 Present Value of Projection Period 1,207
  • 22. 22 LTM 2014A 2015A LTM 2014A 2015A LTM 2014 2015A Tempur Sealy TPX $3,584.2 $4,897.5 12.6x 13.4x 15.0x 1.8x 1.6x 1.8x 34.0x 23.0x 35.2x Mattress Firm Holding CorpMFRM $1,551.9 $2,241.1 8.1x 12.8x 19.8x .8x 1.3x 1.5x 17.9x 25.3x 28.0x Select Comfort Corp SCSS $907.7 $871.5 6.5x 8.4x 8.8x .8x 1.1x 1.1x 13.9x 19.7x 22.8x Tuesday Morning Corp TUES $353.9 $318.6 11.4x 15.2x 15.0x .4x .6x .7x 61.4x 46.9x 46.9x Armstrong World IndustriesAWI $2,309.5 $3,067.7 9.5x 12.9x 10.8x 1.4x 1.6x 1.4x 29.3x 31.2x 31.2x Leggett & Platt Inc LEG $6,567.0 $7,274.7 10.3x 12.4x 12.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.6x 20.5x 17.6x 17.6x ImpliedValuation 3rd Quartile $73.53 $60.33 $62.76 Implied Enterprise Value (Mean) $57.56 $50.71 $56.34 Implied Enterprise Value (Median) $63.55 $47.05 $58.97 1st Quartile $47.68 $39.63 $45.80 3rd Quartile 10.3x 12.9x 15.0x 1.4x 1.4x 1.5x 29.3x 31.2x 31.2x Median 9.5x 12.8x 12.4x .8x 1.3x 1.4x 20.5x 25.3x 28.0x Mean 9.2x 12.4x 13.4x 1.0x 1.2x 1.3x 28.6x 28.1x 29.3x 1st Quartile 8.1x 12.4x 10.8x .8x 1.1x 1.1x 17.9x 19.7x 22.8x P/E Name Ticker Market Cap EV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
  • 23. 23