This document summarizes the research report from CFA Institute Research Challenge: San Diego on a global marketing company. It provides an overview of the company's business segments and geographic revenue breakdown. Financial analysis shows projections for revenue, profit, dividends, and ROE through 2020. Valuation using DCF and DDM estimates the company's share price at $87, a 19% downside from current price. Key risks include a stronger US dollar and increasing oil prices. The recommendation is to sell the stock.
13. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Strengthening Dollar
Counterfeit
Reproductions and
Competition
Increase in Oil Prices
Government
Regulations and
Political Instability
Attracting/Retaining
Quality Employees
Likelihood
LowMediumHigh
Low Medium High
Impact
Investment Risks
13
14. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Index(Mar1973=100)
Date
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Major Currencies
Investment Risks – Stronger US Dollar
14
17. “You only need two things in
life: Duct Tape and WD-40. If it
moves and shouldn’t, use Duct
Tape, if it doesn’t move and
should, use WD-40.”
Thank you for your
attention
17
29. Appendices – FDSO (Treasury Method)
Share Price, 1-year Average $ 87.02
Stock Options Outstanding as of 08/31/15 62,620
Weighted-Average Exercise Price $ 34.97
Cash Proceeds $2,189,821
Shares Repurchased 25,165
Restricted Stock Units (RSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 136,895
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 47.19
Cash Proceeds $6,460,075
Shares Repurchased 74,237
Market Share Units (MSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 57,604
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 57.37
Cash Proceeds $3,304,741
Shares Repurchased 37,977
Deferred Performance Units (DPU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 30,798
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 75.14
Cash Proceeds $2,314,162
Shares Repurchased 26,593
Basic Shares Outstanding as of 11/30/15 14,406,219
Plus: New Shares from Exercise of Options, Rights and Warrants 287,917
Less: Shares Repurchased 163,971
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 14,530,165
29
30. Sensitivity Analysis - WACC Calculation
Risk Free Rate
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Market Risk
Premium
3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0%
4.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1%
6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3%
7.5% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 8.9% 9.4%
9.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 9.1% 9.6% 10.0% 10.5%
10.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 10.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6%
12.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8%
Appendices – WACC Sensitivity
WACC Analysis
Risk Free Rate 2.00%
S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815
Market Risk Premium 7.50%
Cost Of Equity 8.11%
Interest Expense $ 1,205,000
Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79%
Equity Financing 92.17%
Debt Financing 7.83%
WACC 7.54%
Cost of Debt - preferred method
Interest Expense $ 1,205,000
Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.78%
30
Cost of Debt Calculations Using Current Credit Agreement Terms
Debt USD LIBOR - 3mo* Margin
LIBOR+
Margin
Outstanding
Balance
Commitment
Fee**
Revolving Line of Credit 0.62110% 0.85% 1.47% $108,000,000 0.13%
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.52%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 1.07%
*Source: http://www.global-rates.com/
** applied to the portion of the total credit facility commitment that has not been borrowed
31. Appendices – DCF Calculations
Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
Year 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Value
(+) Revenue 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05
(-) COGS 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87
(-) Operating Costs 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83
(=) Operating Profit 51.11 53.91 56.70 59.38 62.02 62.021
(-) Change in NWC -3.54 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19 0
(-) Investments in Fixed Capital -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 0
(-) Depreciation 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36 0
(=) FCF 54.37 49.02 51.98 55.07 57.69 1261.58
(^) Present Value 52.43 43.96 43.34 42.70 41.60 909.64
Terminal Value with Multiple
2020E EBITDA 90.61
(*)Exit Multiple 19.4
(=)Terminal Value 1757.82
Discounted Terminal Value 1267.44
Perpetuity TerminalX
(+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40
(-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00
(+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60
(=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00
(/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53
(=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17
Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79
Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1%
31
39. 47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
PMILevel
Period
Eurozone PMI
China PMI
U.S. PMI
2,920
2,940
2,960
2,980
3,000
3,020
3,040
3,060
Miles(millions)
Date
Source: Bloomberg Data
22,500
23,000
23,500
24,000
24,500
25,000
25,500
26,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$/Vehicle
DateSource: Bloomberg Data
Historical PMI Levels
US vehicles Miles on Public Roads
AVG US Expenditure/Vehicle
Appendices – Demand Drivers
Source: Bloomberg Data
39
40. Appendices – WDFC Suppliers
6.78%
3.70%
1.91%
1.51%
0.85%
0.29% 0.22% 0.13%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
PercentageofTotalRevenue
Company
• Large Retailers Responsible for
15% of Sales
• Sacrifice Pricing Power
• Give-up Margin Expansion Potential
• Already sell at a Premium
• Difficult to grow sales from Price
Increases
• Further Pressure on performance
of MUP products
Source: Bloomberg Data
40
41. Appendices - Counterfeiting Issue
“In addition, from time to time the
Company discovers products in certain
markets that are counterfeit reproductions
of the Company’s products as well as
products otherwise bearing an infringing
trade dress.” (FY 14 10K)“
“In addition, the Company frequently
discovers products in certain markets that
are counterfeit reproductions of the
Company’s products as well as products
otherwise bearing an infringing trade
dress.” (FY 15 10K)
41
42. Healthy Balance Sheet
High Liquidity
Strong Cash Position
$90.8 million out of $102.5
million cash held outside of
the U.S. as the end of FY 15
Profitability
Ratios
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ROA 13.05% 14.33% 14.20% 13.98% 13.72% 13.47%
ROE 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06%
Profit
Margin
11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Liquidity
Ratios
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Current
Ratio
4.28 4.35 4.61 4.87 5.15 5.43
Quick Ratio 3.36 3.53 3.80 4.07 4.35 4.64
Appendices – Selected Ratios
42
45. We project that ROE
will decrease from
32.6% in FY16E to
20.06% in FY20E
ROE Trend 2011 -2020E
Appendices – ROE reversal
45
46. LT Debt/LT Capital and LT Debt/Total Equity Trend
Increasing the use of
revolving credit line for
share purchases has
negative effect on
solvency
Appendices – Solvency Trend
46
47. Appendices – Business Strategies
• Maximizing Sales of Flagship Product (WD-40 Multi-Use Product)
• Growing the WD-40 Specialist Product Line
• Extending Product and Revenue Base
• Attracting, Developing and Retaining Talented People
• Operating with Excellence
47
48. Appendices – Product Portfolio
48
WD-40 Multi-Use Product - The WD-40 multi -use product is a market leader among multi-purpose maintenance products and is sold as an aerosol spray, a non-
aerosol trigger spray and in liquid form through mass retail stores, hardware stores, warehouse club stores, automotive parts outlets and industrial distributors and
suppliers. The WD-40 multi-use product is sold worldwide in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Rim, Europe, the Middle East and
Africa. The WD-40 multi-use product has a wide variety of consumer uses in, for example, household, marine, automotive, construction, repair, sporting goods and
gardening applications, in addition to numerous industrial applications
WD-40 Specialist product line – WD-40 Specialist, introduced in 2011, consists of a line of best-in-class specialty maintenance products that include penetrants,
degreasers, corrosion inhibitors, lubricants and rust removers that are aimed at an expanded group of end users that currently use the WD-40 multi-use product.
The Company initially launched the WD-40 Specialist product line early in fiscal year 2012 and it currently sells these products in the U.S., Canada and select
countries in Latin America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
WD-40 Bike product line - The WD-40 Bike product line consists of a comprehensive line of bicycle maintenance products that include wet and dry chain
lubricants, heavy-duty degreasers, foaming wash and frame protectants that are designed specifically for avid cyclists, bike enthusiasts and mechanics. The
Company launched this product line in the U.S. early in fiscal year 2013 and in Australia and Europe near the end of fiscal year 2014. Although the initial focus for
such sales was on smaller independent bike dealers, primarily those in the U.S., distribution of WD-40 Bike products has been expanded to include certain
distributors and retailers.
3-IN-ONE - The 3-IN-ONE brand consists of multi-purpose drip oil and spray lubricant products, as well as other specialty maintenance products. The drip oil is a
lubricant with unique spout options that allow for precise applications to small mechanisms and assemblies, tool maintenance and threads on screws and bolts. 3-
IN-ONE Oil is the market share leader among drip oils for household consumers. It also has wide industrial applications in such areas as locksmithing, HVAC,
marine, farming, construction and jewelry manufacturing. In addition to the drip oil line of products, the 3-IN-ONE brand also includes a professional line of
products known as 3-IN-ONE Professional, which is a line of high quality, maintenance products. 3-IN-ONE products are sold primarily in the U.S., Europe,
Canada, Latin America, Australia and Asia.
GT85® - The GT85 brand is a multi-purpose bike maintenance product that consists of professional spray maintenance products and lubricants which are sold
primarily in the bike market through the automotive and industrial channels in the U.K., with additional sales in foreign markets including those in Spain and other
European countries. GT85 products are also currently sold in the United States. This brand was acquired by the Company’s U.K. subsidiary in September 2014
and it will help to build upon the Company’s strategy to develop new product categories for WD-40 Specialist and WD-40 BIKE.
49. Appendices – Product Portfolio
49
X-14 - The X-14 brand is a line of quality products designed for unique cleaning needs. X-14 is sold as a liquid mildew stain remover and as an
automatic toilet bowl cleaner. X-14 is sold primarily in the U.S. through grocery and mass retail channels.
2000 Flushes - The 2000 Flushes brand is a line of long-lasting automatic toilet bowl cleaners which includes a variety of formulas. 2000 Flushes is
sold primarily in the U.S. and Canada through grocery and mass retail channels.
Carpet Fresh - The Carpet Fresh brand is a line of room and rug deodorizers sold as powder, aerosol quick-dry foam and trigger spray products.
Carpet Fresh is sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia. In the U.K., these products are sold under
the 1001 brand name and in Australia, they are sold under the No Vac brand name.
Spot Shot - The Spot Shot brand is sold as an aerosol carpet stain remover and a liquid trigger carpet stain and odor eliminator. The brand also
includes environmentally friendly products such as Spot Shot Instant Carpet Stain & Odor Eliminator™ and Spot Shot Pet Clean, which are non-toxic
and biodegradable. Spot Shot products are sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels, warehouse club stores and hardware and home
center stores in the U.S. and Canada. Spot Shot products are also sold in the U.K. under the 1001 brand name.
1001 - The 1001 brand includes carpet and household cleaners and rug and room deodorizers which are sold primarily through mass retail, grocery
and home center stores in the U.K. The brand was acquired in order to introduce the Company’s other homecare and cleaning product formulations
under the 1001 brand and to expand the Company’s homecare and cleaning products business into the U.K. market.
Lava - The Lava and Solvol brands consist of heavy-duty hand cleaner products which are sold in bar soap and liquid form through hardware, grocery,
industrial, automotive and mass retail channels. Lava is sold primarily in the U.S., while Solvol is sold exclusively in Australia.
Source: 2015 Annual Report
We used Porter’s five forces to break down the Competitive environment that WD-40 operates in. Looking specifically at their MUP product line, responsible for 88% of sales we determined that in the mature Americas segment, WDFC is well positioned to defend market share with economies of scale & low-cost distribution in place as well as high brand recognition & loyalty (8/10 US HH) to their products priced in the premium range.
However in emerging markets within EMEA and Asia Pacific regions WDFC does not possess the same brand recognition advantage. Here more competitors & counterfeiters operate in a highly competitive environment reducing WDFC’s pricing power. Also as barriers to entry are decreasing from lower-cost production the threat of new entrants rises. Although more available market share exists in these regions, more substitutes, and greater competitive rivalry make growth expensive and difficult in a region where the Company is anticipating the majority of future growth to come from these markets,
Other factors worth noting that affect the future outlook for WDFC include favorable tailwinds from declining input costs from lower energy & transportation prices, discounted access to capital from a low interests rate and improving consumer confidence from lower retail fuel prices and decreasing unemployment. Major headwinds include slowing in GDP growth, a slowdown in manufacturing (a major demand driver for MRO users who use much more product volume), uncertainty in financial and emerging markets, and a strengthening US dollar.
Keeping those macro trends in mind we move to the internal analysis of the firm. To develop our forward looking statements we used a percentage of sales method, modeling to a gross margin of 55% as we anticipate a 3 % y/y margin expansion from the reduction of input costs.
To determine top-line total sales growth we broke down historical performance geographically and within each product segment. As WD-40 admits to not spending any $ on HHCP segment we assume continued 6% annual runoff in this segment further increasing the pressure on MUP product performance.
A 3 % CAGR since 2011 has been carried by 7 % growth in Asia Pacific. Total sales declined 1 & ¼ % in 2015 which the Company attributes to poor exchange rates. Company guidance is for 393-401M (4% increase)
In our view we think exposure to exchange rate risk still exists, market conditions remain unstable in Russia and East Europe (responsible for 35-40% of EMEA distributor markets), counterfeiting is admittedly a bigger issue than the Company had expected plus manufacturing & GDP in China is slowing where WDFC now has 50 employees and is counting on future expansion, we project 29 BP top line growth for 2016
Considering our Sell recommendation we approached it with optimistic sales projections whowing above average growth returning in 2017 and beyond, let by double-digit growth in China. Even with optimistic numbers as we’ll get into with our valuation, intrinsic values are well below current market values.
Utilizing a 7.5 % discount rate and 2.5% perpetuity growth (historical world GDP) and dividing the equity present value by 14.53M shares outstanding we arrive at an intrinsic value just below $74/share.
If we look at a takeout multiple upon maturity in 5 years we believe the company would deem a 19.4 multiple from their FY 15 EV/EBITDA trailing Multiple of 16.9 with a 15% premium per historical trends, keeping them at peak valuation to their peers. Our projected 2020 EBITDA of $90M at 19x discounts back to an intrinsic value of $86, 20% below current market value.