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2016 CFA Institute Research
Challenge: San Diego
San Diego State University
Viktoriya Demina
Olga Grigorchuk
Paul Lamb
Ryan Neumann
Hongliao Xiong
Executive Summary – “Expensive Slow-Grower”
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Recommendation:
Sell
2/19/2016 Closing
Price: $107.79
12-Month Price
Target: $87
Downside Potential:
19%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Price/Share($)
Target Price : $87
Current Price : 107
2
•Global Marketing Company
•Two product segments
oMaintenance Products
oHomecare Products
The
Americas
50%EMEA
36%
Asia-
Pacific
14%
Business Overview
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
3
Competitive Positioning
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
•Americas Segment
oStrong competitive positioning
oMature market
•EMEA and Asia-Pacific
oGrowth opportunities/challenges
0
1
2
3
4
5
Buyer Power
Supplier
Power
New Entrants
Substitute
Products
Competitive
Rivalry
0 = No Threat
1 = Minimal Threat
2 = Low Threat
3 = Moderate Threat
4 = Significant Threat
5 = High Threat
4
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
170 177 181 181 187 192 196 199 201 203
125 117
136 151 137 130 139 149 158 166
41 49
52
51 54 57
64
72
80
88
36 35 40 44 45
50 53 56 58 61
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
MillionsofUSDollars
Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific Net income
Financial Analysis – Revenue Projections
5
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
ModifiedPayout%ofN.I.
Millionsof$
Dividends + Repurchases Net Income Payout ratio
Financial Analysis – Modified Payout Ratio
6
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Financial Analysis – ROE
• Inflated ROE
• Cash trapped overseas
ThreeStep DuPont Analysis
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Profit Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Asset TO 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.00
Financial Lev 1.43 1.50 1.71 1.92 2.10 2.27 2.32 2.16 2.04 1.93
ROE 18.32% 18.35% 21.82% 25.07% 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06%
7
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – Summary
$87
DCF
$73.93
DCF
$86.17
DDM
$100.77
8
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
WACC Analysis
Risk Free Rate 2.00%
S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815
Market Risk Premium 7.50%
Cost Of Equity 8.11%
Interest Expense $ 1,205,000
Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000
Pre Tax Cost of Debt 1.12%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79%
Equity Financing 92.17%
Debt Financing 7.83%
WACC 7.54%
Valuation – WACC Analysis
9
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Terminal Value Methodology
Gordon
Growth
Terminal
Ratio
(+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40
(-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00
(+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60
(=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00
(/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53
(=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17
Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79
Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1%
Assumptions
• 2.5% Terminal Growth Rate
• 19.4x Terminal Multiple
• 2020 EBITDA = $90M
Valuation – Discounted Cash Flows
10
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – DCF Sensitivity
Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple
EV/EBITDA
13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $ 71.33 $ 81.56 $ 91.79 $102.02 $112.25 $122.48 $132.71
5.5% $ 68.41 $ 78.21 $ 88.01 $ 97.81 $107.61 $117.41 $127.22
6.5% $ 65.63 $ 75.03 $ 84.42 $ 93.82 $103.21 $112.60 $122.00
7.5% $ 63.00 $ 72.01 $ 81.01 $ 90.02 $ 99.03 $108.04 $117.04
8.5% $ 60.49 $ 69.13 $ 77.77 $ 86.41 $ 95.05 $103.69 $112.33
9.5% $ 58.11 $ 66.40 $ 74.69 $ 82.98 $ 91.27 $ 99.56 $107.85
10.5% $ 55.84 $ 63.80 $ 71.76 $ 79.72 $ 87.68 $ 95.64 $103.59
Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth
Terminal Growth Rate
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $142.00 $155.30 $171.56 $191.89 $218.03 $252.88 $301.66
5.5% $103.08 $109.82 $117.60 $126.68 $137.40 $150.27 $166.00
6.5% $ 80.57 $ 84.57 $ 89.05 $ 94.08 $ 99.79 $106.31 $113.84
7.5% $ 65.90 $ 68.51 $ 71.38 $ 74.54 $ 78.03 $ 81.90 $ 86.24
8.5% $ 55.58 $ 57.41 $ 59.38 $ 61.52 $ 63.85 $ 66.38 $ 69.16
9.5% $ 47.93 $ 49.27 $ 50.70 $ 52.23 $ 53.87 $ 55.64 $ 57.55
10.5% $ 42.04 $ 43.05 $ 44.13 $ 45.27 $ 46.48 $ 47.77 $ 49.16
11
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Valuation – Modified Dividend Discount Model
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Dividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal
Dividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95
PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02
Sum (Value/Share) 100.77
12
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Strengthening Dollar
Counterfeit
Reproductions and
Competition
Increase in Oil Prices
Government
Regulations and
Political Instability
Attracting/Retaining
Quality Employees
Likelihood
LowMediumHigh
Low Medium High
Impact
Investment Risks
13
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Index(Mar1973=100)
Date
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Major Currencies
Investment Risks – Stronger US Dollar
14
Source: Nasdaq.com
Investment Risks – Price of Oil
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
15
• Unsustainable Payout Ratios
• Low Growth
• Intrinsic Values < Market Value
Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation
Recommendation
Recommendation:
Sell
2/19/2016 Closing
Price: $107.79
12-Month Price
Target: $87
Downside Potential:
19%
16
“You only need two things in
life: Duct Tape and WD-40. If it
moves and shouldn’t, use Duct
Tape, if it doesn’t move and
should, use WD-40.”
Thank you for your
attention
17
1. Cover Page
2. Executive Summary
3. Business Overview
4. Competitive Positioning
5. Revenue Projections
6. Modified Payout Ratio
7. ROE
8. Valuation Summary
9. WACC Analysis
10. DCF Analysis
11. DCF Sensitivity
12. Modified DDM
13. Investment Risks
14. Exchange Rates
15. Crude Prices
Appendices – Index
16. Recommendation
17. Questions
18. Appendix Index
19. Income Statement
20. Common Size I.S.
21. Revenue by Geography
22. Revenue by Product
23. Balance Sheet
24. Balance Sheet POS
25. Cash Flows
26. Cash Flows POS
27. Schedules
28. Beta Calculation
29. Treasury Method
30. WACC Sensitivity 18
31. DCF Calculations
32. NWC Calculations
33. DCF Sensitivity (perp)
34. DCF Sensitivity (EVx)
35. Historical Multiples
36. Multiples Comps
37. Comparables
38. DDM
39. Demand Drivers
40. Suppliers
41. Counterfeiting
42. Selected Ratios
43. Ratios
44. Ratios (cont.)
45. ROE Reversal
46. Solvency
47. Strategies
48. Brands
49. Brands
50. Shareholders
51. Can Costs
52. Performance
Appendices – Income Statement($ In Millions )
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05
Sales Growth 1.9% 7.5% 3.9% -1.3% 0.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7%
Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87
Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 208.55 219.48 230.43 240.20 249.18
Margin 50.0% 49.2% 51.3% 51.9% 52.9% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%
Selling, general & administrative expense 87.31 88.92 104.38 108.58 108.87 108.07 113.73 119.41 124.47 129.12
% of Sales 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
Advertising & sales promotion expense 25.13 25.70 24.81 23.92 22.88 24.65 25.94 27.23 28.39 29.45
% of Sales 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 1.54 2.13 2.26 2.62 3.04 3.03 3.02 3.02 2.76 2.26
% of Sales 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.76% 0.72% 0.63% 0.50%
Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 1.08
Total operating expenses 113.98 116.75 132.53 135.12 134.79 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83
Income (loss) from operations 54.13 51.73 56.64 63.74 65.39 72.81 76.79 80.77 84.59 88.35
Operating Margin 16.1% 15.1% 15.4% 16.6% 17.3% 19.2% 19.2% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5%
Interest income 0.23 0.26 0.51 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56
Interest expense 1.08 0.73 0.69 1.00 1.21 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81
Interest Expense Increase 0.60 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other income (expense), net 0.25 -0.35 0.42 -0.37 -1.66
Income (loss) before income taxes - US 37.33 36.67 36.30 41.54 38.04
Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 16.20 14.25 20.57 21.42 25.07
Income (loss) before income taxes 53.53 50.91 56.87 62.96 63.11 71.56 75.55 79.53 83.34 87.11
Pretax Margin 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.87% 18.93% 18.98% 19.08% 19.23%
Income Tax Rate 31.9% 30.3% 30.0% 30.5% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Provision for income taxes 17.10 15.43 17.05 19.21 18.30 21.47 22.66 23.86 25.00 26.13
Net income (loss) 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Income Growth -2.60% 12.20% 9.88% 2.43% 11.80% 5.57% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51%
Income Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Less: N.I. (loss) allocated to participating securities - - - - 0.27
N.I. (loss) available to common shareholders - - - - 44.54
Weighted average shares outstanding - basic 16.80 15.91 15.52 15.07 14.58 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14
Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted 16.98 16.05 15.62 15.15 14.65 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21
Net earnings (loss) per share-basic 2.168243766 2.22 2.55 2.89 3.05 3.54 3.74 3.94 4.13 4.31
Net earnings (loss) per share-diluted 2.14 2.2 2.54 2.87 3.04 3.53 3.72 3.92 4.11 4.29
EPS Growth 2.80% 15.45% 12.99% 5.92% 15.97% 5.56% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51%
Dividends per share 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.33 1.48 1.77 2.24 2.36 2.48 2.59
Dividends/Share Growth 5.56% 7.02% 9.02% 11.28% 16.30% 26.72% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51%
Total number of employees 334 347 369 395 433
Historical Income Statement Projected Income Statement
See Rev Breakdown (next slide)
Model to 55% Gross Margin
% of Sales
Q1 Conference Call
10K Report
Source: Company Data &
Team Estimates
19
Appendices – Common Size I.S.
20
($ In Millions ) Historical Income Statement Common Size Projected Income Statement Common Size
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Cost of products sold 50.03% 50.85% 48.67% 48.08% 47.06% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00%
Gross profit (loss) 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00%
Selling, general & administrative expense 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50%
Advertising & sales promotion expense 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.77% 0.74% 0.66% 0.52%
Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total operating expenses 33.88% 34.06% 35.96% 35.28% 35.64% 35.80% 35.77% 35.74% 35.66% 35.52%
Income (loss) from operations 16.09% 15.09% 15.37% 16.64% 17.29% 19.20% 19.23% 19.26% 19.34% 19.48%
Interest income 0.07% 0.08% 0.14% 0.16% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13% 0.13%
Interest expense 0.32% 0.21% 0.19% 0.26% 0.32% 0.48% 0.54% 0.52% 0.50% 0.49%
Other income (expense), net 0.07% -0.10% 0.11% -0.10% -0.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Income (loss) before income taxes - US 11.10% 10.70% 9.85% 10.85% 10.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 4.82% 4.16% 5.58% 5.59% 6.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Income (loss) before income taxes 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.86% 18.83% 18.88% 18.98% 19.12%
Provision for income taxes 5.08% 4.50% 4.63% 5.02% 4.84% 5.66% 5.65% 5.66% 5.69% 5.74%
Net income (loss) 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.18% 13.21% 13.28% 13.38%
Appendices – Revenue Breakdown
Historical % of Sales by Geographic Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AVG 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Americas 50.51% 51.75% 48.98% 47.21% 49.54% 49.60% 50.63% 49.07% 47.44% 45.97% 44.75%
EMEA 37.28% 34.10% 36.91% 39.53% 36.18% 36.80% 34.27% 34.85% 35.51% 36.11% 36.55%
Asia-Pacific 12.22% 14.15% 14.11% 13.26% 14.28% 13.60% 15.10% 16.07% 17.14% 18.25% 19.35%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Historical Sales Growth by Geographic Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Americas (6.00%) 4.41% 1.75% 0.17% 3.60% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00%
EMEA 14.00% (6.78%) 16.34% 11.32% (9.64%) (5.00%) 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00%
Asia-Pacific 31.00% 18.00% 7.22% (2.31%) 6.30% 6.00% 12.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00%
Total 5.00% 1.90% 7.50% 3.93% (1.28%) 0.29% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.74%
Historical Sales by Geographic Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 16-20 CAGR
Americas 169.9 177.4 180.5 180.8 187.3 2.47% 191.98 195.82 198.76 200.75 202.75 1.37%
EMEA 125.4 116.9 136 151.4 136.8 2.20% 129.96 139.06 148.79 157.72 165.60 6.25%
Asia-Pacific 41.1 48.5 52 50.8 54 7.06% 57.24 64.11 71.80 79.70 87.67 11.25%
Total 336.4 342.8 368.5 383 378.1 2.96% 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 4.55%
49.54
%
36.18
%
14.28
%
50.63%
34.27%
15.10%
Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific
44.75%
36.55%
19.35%
2015 2016E 2020E
21
Appendices – Revenue Breakdown
Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Net sales - MUP 278.76 286.48 320.88 337.83 333.31 337.07 359.47 381.77 401.77 420.18
Y/Y % Change 8.00% 2.77% 12.01% 5.28% -1.34% 1.13% 6.64% 6.20% 5.24% 4.58%
Net sales - Homecare 57.65 56.30 47.67 45.17 44.84 42.15 39.62 37.25 35.01 32.91
Y/Y % Change -9.00% -2.3% -15.3% -5.2% -0.7% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0%
Total Sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.23 399.09 419.01 436.78 453.09
Y/Y % Change 1.90% 7.52% 3.92% -1.27% 0.28% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.73%
Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 168.76 175.60 186.46 194.37 203.89
Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 210.47 223.49 232.55 242.41 249.20
Gross Margin 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.50% 56.00% 55.50% 55.50% 55.00%
Historical & Project Sales by Product Segment
Historical % of Sales by Product Segment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Maintenance Products 82.88% 83.58% 87.06% 88.20% 88.15% 88.15% 88.89% 90.08% 91.12% 91.99%
Homecare and Cleaning 17.12% 16.42% 12.94% 11.80% 11.85% 11.85% 11.11% 9.92% 8.88% 8.01%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
22
Appendices – Balance Sheet($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Projected Balance Sheet
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Current assets: Cash GR 54.04272646 56.874565 59.714028 62.24590279 64.57078726
Cash and cash equivalents 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67
Short-term investments 0.53 1.03 37.52 45.05 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60
Cash and Short-tern investments 56.93 70.75 90.95 102.85 102.50 122.53 143.21 165.17 188.31 212.27
Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67(1) 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49
Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33(2) 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24
Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13
Total current assets 143.16 166.12 192.14 215.65 205.25 225.73 251.17 277.91 305.31 333.19
Property and equipment, net 8.48 9.06 8.54 9.70 11.38 14.44(3) 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97
Goodwill 95.45 95.32 95.24 95.50 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41
Other intangible assets, net 29.93 27.69 24.29 23.67 22.96 19.93(4) 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87
Other assets 2.75 2.69 2.86 3.15 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26
Total assets 279.78 300.87 323.06 347.68 339.26 359.77 385.08 411.50 438.69 466.71
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable 19.37 $ 21.24 $ 19.69 $ 18.03 $ 17.13 $ 18.96(5) $ 19.95 $ 20.95 $ 21.84 $ 22.65
Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65(6) 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91
Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97(7) 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49
Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29
Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34
Revolving credit facility 10.72 45.00 63.00 98.00 108.00 133.00(8) 133.00 133.00 133.00 133.00
Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 21.81 24.01 24.01 24.25 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15
Other long-term liabilities 2.51 1.96 1.90 2.10 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28
Total liabilities $ 78.55 $ 115.41 $ 143.56 $ 178.27 $ 181.40 $ 210.29 $ 212.86 $ 215.45 $ 217.72 $ 219.77
Shareholders' equity:
Common stock 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02
Additional paid-in capital 117.02 126.21 133.24 136.21 141.65 143.23(9) 144.81 146.38 147.96 149.54
Retained earnings 176.01 193.27 214.03 237.60 260.68 285.73 306.88 329.15 352.49 376.88
AOCI -0.36 (2.73) (5.04) 1.10 (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72)
Treasury Stock -91.47 (131.31) (162.74) (205.52) (235.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77)
Total shareholders' equity 201.23 $ 185.46 $ 179.51 $ 169.42 $ 157.86 $ 149.48 $ 172.21 $ 196.06 $ 220.97 $ 246.94
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 279.78 $ 300.87 $ 323.06 $ 347.68 $ 339.26 $ 359.77 $ 385.08 $ 411.50 $ 438.69 $ 466.71
23
Appendices – Balance Sheet % of Sales
($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Common Size Projected Balance Sheet Common Size
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 20.16% 23.17% 16.54% 16.63% 15.89% 20.55% 24.57% 28.33% 31.85% 35.07%
Short-term investments 0.19% 0.34% 11.61% 12.96% 14.33% 13.51% 12.62% 11.81% 11.08% 10.41%
Accounts Receivable, net 20.85% 18.44% 17.61% 18.30% 17.32% 16.86% 16.58% 16.29% 15.93% 15.53%
Inventories 6.29% 9.90% 10.04% 10.06% 9.45% 8.43% 8.29% 8.15% 7.96% 7.77%
Current deferred tax assets, net 6.29% 1.84% 1.76% 1.68% 1.72% 1.62% 1.51% 1.42% 1.33% 1.25%
Other current assets 1.73% 1.50% 1.92% 2.40% 1.81% 1.70% 1.59% 1.49% 1.40% 1.31%
Total current assets 51.17% 55.21% 59.48% 62.03% 60.50% 62.74% 65.23% 67.54% 69.60% 71.39%
Property and equipment, net 3.03% 3.01% 2.64% 2.79% 3.35% 4.01% 4.50% 4.87% 5.15% 5.35%
Goodwill 34.12% 31.68% 29.48% 27.47% 28.42% 26.80% 25.04% 23.43% 21.98% 20.66%
Other intangible assets, net 10.70% 9.20% 7.52% 6.81% 6.77% 5.54% 4.39% 3.38% 2.54% 1.90%
Other assets 0.98% 0.89% 0.88% 0.91% 0.96% 0.91% 0.85% 0.79% 0.74% 0.70%
Total assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable 6.92% 7.06% 6.10% 5.19% 5.05% 5.27% 5.18% 5.09% 4.98% 4.85%
Accrued liabilities 5.45% 5.48% 5.13% 5.29% 4.48% 4.90% 4.82% 4.73% 4.61% 4.48%
Accrued payroll and related expenses 2.67% 1.96% 5.34% 4.59% 3.94% 3.60% 3.54% 3.48% 3.40% 3.32%
Income taxes payable 0.51% 0.27% 0.35% 0.44% 0.67% 0.64% 0.59% 0.56% 0.52% 0.49%
Total current liabilities 15.55% 14.77% 16.91% 15.51% 14.14% 14.41% 14.14% 13.86% 13.52% 13.14%
Revolving credit facility 3.83% 14.96% 19.50% 28.19% 31.83% 36.97% 34.54% 32.32% 30.32% 28.50%
Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 7.80% 7.98% 7.43% 6.98% 6.82% 6.43% 6.01% 5.62% 5.28% 4.96%
Other long-term liabilities 0.90% 0.65% 0.59% 0.60% 0.67% 0.63% 0.59% 0.55% 0.52% 0.49%
Total liabilities 28.08% 38.36% 44.44% 51.27% 53.47% 58.45% 55.28% 52.36% 49.63% 47.09%
Shareholders' equity:
Common stock 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Additional paid-in capital 41.83% 41.95% 41.24% 39.18% 41.75% 39.81% 37.60% 35.57% 33.73% 32.04%
Retained earnings 62.91% 64.24% 66.25% 68.34% 76.84% 79.42% 79.69% 79.99% 80.35% 80.75%
AOCI -0.13% -0.91% -1.56% 0.32% -2.57% -2.42% -2.27% -2.12% -1.99% -1.87%
Treasury Stock -32.69% -43.64% -50.37% -59.11% -69.50% -75.26% -70.32% -65.80% -61.72% -58.02%
Total shareholders' equity 71.92% 61.64% 55.56% 48.73% 46.53% 41.55% 44.72% 47.64% 50.37% 52.91%
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
24
Appendices – Cash Flow Statements
25
($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Projected Statement of Cash Flows
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Operating activities:
Net income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Adjustments to net income:
Depreciation and amortization 4.39 4.87 5.36 5.86 6.46 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36
Impairment of long-lived assets - - 1.08 - - - - - - -
Net (gains) losses on sales of PPE 0.15 0.07 0.00 (0.04) (0.07) - - - - -
Deferred income taxes 2.83 0.37 (1.00) (0.74) (1.33) - - - - -
Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity
awards (1.20) (0.67) (0.85) (0.83) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21)
Stock-based compensation 3.03 2.77 2.45 2.26 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78
Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.47 2.11 1.11 (0.07) 2.09 - - - - -
Provision for bad debts 0.16 0.16 0.51 0.22 0.30 - - - - -
Changes in assets and liabilities: - - - - -
Trade accounts receivable (9.78) 0.23 (3.80) (5.82) (0.31) (1.92) (3.18) (3.19) (2.84) (2.61)
Inventories (2.65) (12.35) (2.83) (2.24) 2.04 1.72 (1.59) (1.59) (1.42) (1.30)
Other assets 2.80 (0.06) (2.00) (2.21) 1.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.66 3.21 (0.89) (0.56) (2.46) 4.28 1.90 1.90 1.66 1.49
Accrued payroll and related expenses (7.80) (2.79) 10.36 (3.05) (2.72) (0.39) 0.68 0.68 0.61 0.56
Income taxes payable 2.66 1.41 2.28 2.00 2.74 - - - - -
Other long-term liabilities (2.15) (0.55) (0.04) 0.19 0.23 - - - - -
Net cash provided by operating activities 30.01 34.25 51.57 38.73 55.06 61.58 58.90 61.87 64.64 67.05
Investing activities:
Purchases of property and equipment (2.88) (3.77) (2.85) (4.09) (5.78) -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50
Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.17 1.17 0.16 0.33 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Purchase of intangible assets - - - (1.80) - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Acquisition of business - - - - (4.12) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Purchases of short-term investments (0.52) (1.03) (38.84) (7.71) (10.58) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maturities of short-term investments - 0.51 2.00 2.76 3.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net cash used in investing activities (3.22) (3.11) (39.53) (10.50) (16.95) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50)
Financing activities:
TS purchases and Dividends Paid (59.63) (58.07) (50.48) (62.96) (51.98) (60.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58)
Treasury stock purchases (41) (39.84) (31.44) (42.77) (30.26) -35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dividends paid (18.23) (18.23) (19.04) (20.18) (21.72) -25.05 -31.73 -33.40 -35.00 -36.58
Proceeds from issuance of common stock (5.00) 7.03 4.79 1.28 2.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity
awards (18.23) 0.67 0.85 0.83 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Proceeds from revolving credit facility 20.22 114.55 18.00 35.00 10.00 25.00 - - - -
Repayments of revolving credit facility (41.40) (69.55) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Repayments of long-term debt 1.20 (10.72) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net cash used in financing activities (48.93) (16.08) (26.84) (25.84) (38.66) (35.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58)
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash
equivalents 2.61 (1.73) (1.48) 1.98 (3.36) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents (19.54) 13.33 (16.29) 4.37 (3.91) 20.04 20.67 21.96 23.14 23.97
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 75.93 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67
Appendices – Cash Flow % of Sales
26
($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Common Size Projected Statement of Cash Flows Common Size
As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Operating activities:
Net income 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Adjustments to net income:
Depreciation and amortization 1.30% 1.42% 1.45% 1.53% 1.71% 1.64% 1.66% 1.63% 1.54% 1.40%
Impairment of long-lived assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net (gains) losses on sales and disposals of property and
equipment 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% -0.01% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Deferred income taxes 0.84% 0.11% -0.27% -0.19% -0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity
awards -0.36% -0.20% -0.23% -0.22% -0.32% -0.32% -0.30% -0.29% -0.28% -0.27%
Stock-based compensation 0.90% 0.81% 0.67% 0.59% 0.74% 0.73% 0.70% 0.66% 0.64% 0.61%
Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.14% 0.62% 0.30% -0.02% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Provision for bad debts 0.05% 0.05% 0.14% 0.06% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Trade accounts receivable -2.91% 0.07% -1.03% -1.52% -0.08% -0.51% -0.80% -0.76% -0.65% -0.58%
Inventories -0.79% -3.60% -0.77% -0.58% 0.54% 0.45% -0.40% -0.38% -0.33% -0.29%
Other assets 0.83% -0.02% -0.54% -0.58% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.20% 0.94% -0.24% -0.15% -0.65% 1.13% 0.48% 0.45% 0.38% 0.33%
Accrued payroll and related expenses -2.32% -0.82% 2.81% -0.80% -0.72% -0.10% 0.17% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12%
Income taxes payable 0.79% 0.41% 0.62% 0.52% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Other long-term liabilities -0.64% -0.16% -0.01% 0.05% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net cash provided by operating activities 8.92% 9.99% 13.99% 10.11% 14.56% 16.24% 14.76% 14.77% 14.80% 14.80%
Investing activities:
Purchases of property and equipment -0.85% -1.10% -0.77% -1.07% -1.53% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43%
Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.05% 0.34% 0.04% 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Purchase of intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Acquisition of business 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Purchases of short-term investments -0.15% -0.30% -10.54% -2.01% -2.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Maturities of short-term investments 0.00% 0.15% 0.54% 0.72% 0.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net cash used in investing activities -0.96% -0.91% -10.73% -2.74% -4.48% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43%
Financing activities:
Treasury stock purchases -12.31% -11.62% -8.53% -11.17% -8.00% -9.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dividends paid -5.42% -5.32% -5.17% -5.27% -5.74% -6.61% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08%
Proceeds from issuance of common stock -1.49% 2.05% 1.30% 0.34% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity
awards -5.42% 0.20% 0.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Proceeds from revolving credit facility 6.01% 33.42% 4.88% 9.14% 2.64% 6.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Repayments of revolving credit facility -12.31% -20.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Repayments of long-term debt 0.36% -3.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net cash used in financing activities -14.55% -4.69% -7.28% -6.75% -10.22% -9.24% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08%
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash
equivalents 0.78% -0.50% -0.40% 0.52% -0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents -5.81% 3.89% -4.42% 1.14% -1.03% 5.28% 5.18% 5.24% 5.30% 5.29%
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 22.57% 16.45% 18.92% 13.95% 15.29% 14.21% 18.53% 22.58% 26.69% 30.84%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 16.76% 20.34% 14.50% 15.09% 14.25% 19.50% 23.71% 27.82% 31.99% 36.13%
Cash paid for:
Interest 0.29% 0.19% 0.19% 0.24% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Income taxes, net of tax refunds received 3.40% 3.86% 4.51% 4.74% 4.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Appendices – Schedules
PPE Schedule
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Beginning, net 11.38 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58
CAPEX 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Depreciation (3.43) (3.61) (3.79) (3.96) (4.10)
Ending 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97
Amortization Schedule
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Beginning 22.96 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13
Amortization (3.03) (3.02) (3.02) (2.76) (2.26)
Ending 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87
Dividend Payout Schedule
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Weighted average
shares outstanding 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14
Dividend 25.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
60.05 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Dividend + TS 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
27
Appendices – Beta Calculation
28
Appendices – FDSO (Treasury Method)
Share Price, 1-year Average $ 87.02
Stock Options Outstanding as of 08/31/15 62,620
Weighted-Average Exercise Price $ 34.97
Cash Proceeds $2,189,821
Shares Repurchased 25,165
Restricted Stock Units (RSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 136,895
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 47.19
Cash Proceeds $6,460,075
Shares Repurchased 74,237
Market Share Units (MSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 57,604
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 57.37
Cash Proceeds $3,304,741
Shares Repurchased 37,977
Deferred Performance Units (DPU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 30,798
Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 75.14
Cash Proceeds $2,314,162
Shares Repurchased 26,593
Basic Shares Outstanding as of 11/30/15 14,406,219
Plus: New Shares from Exercise of Options, Rights and Warrants 287,917
Less: Shares Repurchased 163,971
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 14,530,165
29
Sensitivity Analysis - WACC Calculation
Risk Free Rate
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Market Risk
Premium
3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0%
4.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1%
6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3%
7.5% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 8.9% 9.4%
9.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 9.1% 9.6% 10.0% 10.5%
10.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 10.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6%
12.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8%
Appendices – WACC Sensitivity
WACC Analysis
Risk Free Rate 2.00%
S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815
Market Risk Premium 7.50%
Cost Of Equity 8.11%
Interest Expense $ 1,205,000
Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79%
Equity Financing 92.17%
Debt Financing 7.83%
WACC 7.54%
Cost of Debt - preferred method
Interest Expense $ 1,205,000
Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 0.78%
30
Cost of Debt Calculations Using Current Credit Agreement Terms
Debt USD LIBOR - 3mo* Margin
LIBOR+
Margin
Outstanding
Balance
Commitment
Fee**
Revolving Line of Credit 0.62110% 0.85% 1.47% $108,000,000 0.13%
Pretax Cost of Debt 1.52%
Marginal Tax Rate 0.298
After Tax Cost of Debt 1.07%
*Source: http://www.global-rates.com/
** applied to the portion of the total credit facility commitment that has not been borrowed
Appendices – DCF Calculations
Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
Year 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Value
(+) Revenue 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05
(-) COGS 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87
(-) Operating Costs 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83
(=) Operating Profit 51.11 53.91 56.70 59.38 62.02 62.021
(-) Change in NWC -3.54 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19 0
(-) Investments in Fixed Capital -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 0
(-) Depreciation 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36 0
(=) FCF 54.37 49.02 51.98 55.07 57.69 1261.58
(^) Present Value 52.43 43.96 43.34 42.70 41.60 909.64
Terminal Value with Multiple
2020E EBITDA 90.61
(*)Exit Multiple 19.4
(=)Terminal Value 1757.82
Discounted Terminal Value 1267.44
Perpetuity TerminalX
(+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40
(-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00
(+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60
(=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00
(/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53
(=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17
Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79
Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1%
31
Appendices – NWC Calculations
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Cash (Required) 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 54.04 56.87 59.71 62.25 64.57
Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49
Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24
Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13
Total current assets 142.62 165.08 154.63 170.60 156.65 157.00 164.60 172.22 179.01 185.25
Accounts payable 19.37 21.24 19.69 18.03 17.13 18.96 19.95 20.95 21.84 22.65
Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91
Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49
Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29
Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34
Net Working Capital (NWC) 99.11 120.64 99.98 116.69 108.68 105.14 110.16 115.20 119.72 123.91
Change in NWC 21.53 (20.66) 16.71 (8.02) (3.54) 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19
32
Appendices – DCF Sensitivity
Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth
Terminal Growth Rate
$73.93 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $142.00 $155.30 $171.56 $191.89 $218.03 $252.88 $301.66
5.5% $103.08 $109.82 $117.60 $126.68 $137.40 $150.27 $166.00
6.5% $ 80.57 $ 84.57 $ 89.05 $ 94.08 $ 99.79 $106.31 $113.84
7.5% $ 65.90 $ 68.51 $ 71.38 $ 74.54 $ 78.03 $ 81.90 $ 86.24
8.5% $ 55.58 $ 57.41 $ 59.38 $ 61.52 $ 63.85 $ 66.38 $ 69.16
9.5% $ 47.93 $ 49.27 $ 50.70 $ 52.23 $ 53.87 $ 55.64 $ 57.55
10.5% $ 42.04 $ 43.05 $ 44.13 $ 45.27 $ 46.48 $ 47.77 $ 49.16
Estimated Upside
Terminal Growth Rate
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% 31.7% 44.1% 59.2% 78.0% 102.3% 134.6% 179.9%
5.5% -4.4% 1.9% 9.1% 17.5% 27.5% 39.4% 54.0%
6.5% -25.3% -21.5% -17.4% -12.7% -7.4% -1.4% 5.6%
7.5% -38.9% -36.4% -33.8% -30.8% -27.6% -24.0% -20.0%
8.5% -48.4% -46.7% -44.9% -42.9% -40.8% -38.4% -35.8%
9.5% -55.5% -54.3% -53.0% -51.5% -50.0% -48.4% -46.6%
10.5% -61.0% -60.1% -59.1% -58.0% -56.9% -55.7% -54.4%
Implied EV/EBITDA
Terminal Growth Rate
1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% 23.56 25.98 28.94 32.63 37.39 43.72 52.59
5.5% 17.28 18.56 20.03 21.76 23.79 26.23 29.22
6.5% 13.64 14.43 15.32 16.32 17.45 18.74 20.23
7.5% 11.27 11.81 12.40 13.05 13.77 14.57 15.47
8.5% 9.60 9.99 10.42 10.88 11.38 11.92 12.52
9.5% 8.36 8.66 8.98 9.32 9.69 10.09 10.52
10.5% 7.40 7.64 7.89 8.16 8.44 8.74 9.07 33
Appendices – DCF Sensitivity
Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple
EV/EBITDA
$86.17 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% $ 71.33 $ 81.56 $ 91.79 $102.02 $112.25 $122.48 $132.71
5.5% $ 68.41 $ 78.21 $ 88.01 $ 97.81 $107.61 $117.41 $127.22
6.5% $ 65.63 $ 75.03 $ 84.42 $ 93.82 $103.21 $112.60 $122.00
7.5% $ 63.00 $ 72.01 $ 81.01 $ 90.02 $ 99.03 $108.04 $117.04
8.5% $ 60.49 $ 69.13 $ 77.77 $ 86.41 $ 95.05 $103.69 $112.33
9.5% $ 58.11 $ 66.40 $ 74.69 $ 82.98 $ 91.27 $ 99.56 $107.85
10.5% $ 55.84 $ 63.80 $ 71.76 $ 79.72 $ 87.68 $ 95.64 $103.59
Estimated Upside
EV/EBITDA
13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% -37.3% -27.8% -18.3% -8.8% 0.7% 10.2% 19.7%
5.5% -40.0% -30.9% -21.8% -12.7% -3.6% 5.5% 14.6%
6.5% -42.6% -33.8% -25.1% -16.4% -7.7% 1.0% 9.7%
7.5% -45.0% -36.6% -28.3% -19.9% -11.6% -3.2% 5.1%
8.5% -47.3% -39.3% -31.3% -23.3% -15.3% -7.2% 0.8%
9.5% -49.5% -41.8% -34.1% -26.5% -18.8% -11.1% -3.4%
10.5% -51.6% -44.2% -36.9% -29.5% -22.1% -14.7% -7.3%
Implied Perpetuity Growth
EV/EBITDA
13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4
Discount Rate
(WACC)
4.5% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%
5.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9%
6.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9%
7.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8%
8.5% 4.1% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%
9.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8%
10.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8%
34
Appendices – Multiples History
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Multiple
P/E
EV/EBITDA
WDFC Historical Valuation Multiples
Source: Bloomberg Data
35
Historical P/E Historical EV/EBITDA
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
WDFC US 22.2x 22.5x 23.9x 27.4x 13.1x 13.9x 14.5x 16.9x
NEU US 14.3x 18.7x 21.6x 19.4x 9.6x 11.3x 13.1x 12.4x
CHMT US 18.5x 54.2x 5.0x 13.1x 8.2x 13.8x 2.7x -
ASH US 35.0x 12.0x 41.0x 14.8x 11.9x 7.2x 20.8x 11.5x
ALB US 14.2x 12.4x 20.2x 14.4x 11.6x 8.5x 14.0x 14.3x
UNVR US - - - 52.5x - - - 8.3x
GCP US - - - 8.8x - - - 7.8x
CC US - - - 4.2x - - - 7.8x
PAH US - - - 10.5x - - 54.8x 8.7x
EMN US 12.7x 12.5x 11.1x 9.3x 13.0x 7.1x 11.6x -
DD US 13.9x 18.8x 23.2x 24.6x 10.4x 12.5x 12.9x 13.5x
MTX US 18.5x 24.9x 18.2x 10.5x 6.3x 9.6x 14.4x -
Min 12.7x 12.0x 5.0x 4.2x 6.3x 7.1x 2.7x 7.8x
Max 35.0x 54.2x 41.0x 52.5x 13.0x 13.8x 54.8x 14.3x
Mean 18.2x 21.9x 20.0x 16.6x 10.1x 10.0x 18.0x 10.5x
Appendices – Multiples Comparison
36
Company
Market
Cap (M)
Adj.
Beta
5Y Rev
Growth
6m
Return
Div.
Yield
Gross
Margin
EBITDA/
Int. Exp.
Current
EV (M) EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E
2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E
WDFC US $1,496.80 0.752 2.90% 17.80% 1.46% 55.60% 59.6x $1,502.00 3.2x 19.2x 18.6x 30.6x 28.3x
NEU US $3,988.10 0.842 1.10% -14.70% 1.72% 32.00% 27.2x $4,389.30 2.3x 11.6x 11.5x 17.9x 17.7x
CHMT US $1,733.70 1.252 -7.70% -9.60% 0.00% 26.40% 16.0x $1,934.70 0.9x 7.7x 6.6x 18.0x 14.1x
ASH US $5,812.30 0.954 -2.20% -19.60% 1.64% 33.70% 4.8x $8,810.30 1.7x 7.9x 7.6x 12.9x 11.5x
ALB US $5,765.00 1.541 10.80% 1.80% 2.23% 34.50% 8.6x $9,503.90 2.2x 10.5x 9.9x 14.0x 13.2x
UNVR US $1,654.10 - - -45.60% 0.00% 16.70% 1.7x $4,621.10 - 7.8x 7.9x 37.4x 10.7x
GCP US $1,115.40 - - - - - - $1,840.40 - 7.5x 7.4x 8.1x 11.0x
CC US $702.20 - - -63.30% 0.77% 17.80% - $4,453.20 - 7.6x 6.6x 5.5x 4.7x
PAH US $1,255.30 1.68 - -71.80% 0.00% 40.60% - $4,716.30 6.3x 8.5x 6.2x 9.5x 6.7x
EMN US $9,014.50 1.175 9.30% -19.70% 2.74% 28.40% - $16,064.50 - 7.3x 6.9x 8.7x 7.8x
DD US $50,906.20 0.897 -5.80% 9.80% 2.95% 35.70% 11.0x $53,951.20 2.4x 10.8x 9.5x 19.4x 16.7x
MTX US $1,540.40 1.532 18.00% -25.30% 0.45% 25.40% - $2,600.50 1.5x 7.1x 6.7x 10.0x 9.0x
Mean 1.181 3.30% -21.80% 1.27% 31.50% 18.4x 2.6x 9.4x 8.8x 16.0x 12.6x
St. Deviation 0.323 8.30% 27.20% 1.05% 10.30% 18.5x 1.6x 3.3x 3.3x 9.2x 6.0x
Median 1.175 2.00% -19.60% 1.46% 32.00% 11.0x 2.2x 7.8x 7.5x 13.4x 11.2x
Appendices – Comparables
37
Appendices – DDM
Gordon Growth Model
2020E Payout/Share 3.35
Discount Rate 7.54%
2019E Growth Rate 4.79%
Terminal Value 121.95
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Dividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58
Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97
Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal
Dividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54%
Growth Rate 19.09% -47.14% 5.27% 4.79%
PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02
Sum (Value/Share) 100.77
38
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
PMILevel
Period
Eurozone PMI
China PMI
U.S. PMI
2,920
2,940
2,960
2,980
3,000
3,020
3,040
3,060
Miles(millions)
Date
Source: Bloomberg Data
22,500
23,000
23,500
24,000
24,500
25,000
25,500
26,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$/Vehicle
DateSource: Bloomberg Data
Historical PMI Levels
US vehicles Miles on Public Roads
AVG US Expenditure/Vehicle
Appendices – Demand Drivers
Source: Bloomberg Data
39
Appendices – WDFC Suppliers
6.78%
3.70%
1.91%
1.51%
0.85%
0.29% 0.22% 0.13%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
PercentageofTotalRevenue
Company
• Large Retailers Responsible for
15% of Sales
• Sacrifice Pricing Power
• Give-up Margin Expansion Potential
• Already sell at a Premium
• Difficult to grow sales from Price
Increases
• Further Pressure on performance
of MUP products
Source: Bloomberg Data
40
Appendices - Counterfeiting Issue
“In addition, from time to time the
Company discovers products in certain
markets that are counterfeit reproductions
of the Company’s products as well as
products otherwise bearing an infringing
trade dress.” (FY 14 10K)“
“In addition, the Company frequently
discovers products in certain markets that
are counterfeit reproductions of the
Company’s products as well as products
otherwise bearing an infringing trade
dress.” (FY 15 10K)
41
 Healthy Balance Sheet
 High Liquidity
 Strong Cash Position
 $90.8 million out of $102.5
million cash held outside of
the U.S. as the end of FY 15
Profitability
Ratios
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ROA 13.05% 14.33% 14.20% 13.98% 13.72% 13.47%
ROE 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06%
Profit
Margin
11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46%
Liquidity
Ratios
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Current
Ratio
4.28 4.35 4.61 4.87 5.15 5.43
Quick Ratio 3.36 3.53 3.80 4.07 4.35 4.64
Appendices – Selected Ratios
42
Appendices – Ratios
43
44
Appendices – Ratios
We project that ROE
will decrease from
32.6% in FY16E to
20.06% in FY20E
ROE Trend 2011 -2020E
Appendices – ROE reversal
45
LT Debt/LT Capital and LT Debt/Total Equity Trend
Increasing the use of
revolving credit line for
share purchases has
negative effect on
solvency
Appendices – Solvency Trend
46
Appendices – Business Strategies
• Maximizing Sales of Flagship Product (WD-40 Multi-Use Product)
• Growing the WD-40 Specialist Product Line
• Extending Product and Revenue Base
• Attracting, Developing and Retaining Talented People
• Operating with Excellence
47
Appendices – Product Portfolio
48
WD-40 Multi-Use Product - The WD-40 multi -use product is a market leader among multi-purpose maintenance products and is sold as an aerosol spray, a non-
aerosol trigger spray and in liquid form through mass retail stores, hardware stores, warehouse club stores, automotive parts outlets and industrial distributors and
suppliers. The WD-40 multi-use product is sold worldwide in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Rim, Europe, the Middle East and
Africa. The WD-40 multi-use product has a wide variety of consumer uses in, for example, household, marine, automotive, construction, repair, sporting goods and
gardening applications, in addition to numerous industrial applications
WD-40 Specialist product line – WD-40 Specialist, introduced in 2011, consists of a line of best-in-class specialty maintenance products that include penetrants,
degreasers, corrosion inhibitors, lubricants and rust removers that are aimed at an expanded group of end users that currently use the WD-40 multi-use product.
The Company initially launched the WD-40 Specialist product line early in fiscal year 2012 and it currently sells these products in the U.S., Canada and select
countries in Latin America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
WD-40 Bike product line - The WD-40 Bike product line consists of a comprehensive line of bicycle maintenance products that include wet and dry chain
lubricants, heavy-duty degreasers, foaming wash and frame protectants that are designed specifically for avid cyclists, bike enthusiasts and mechanics. The
Company launched this product line in the U.S. early in fiscal year 2013 and in Australia and Europe near the end of fiscal year 2014. Although the initial focus for
such sales was on smaller independent bike dealers, primarily those in the U.S., distribution of WD-40 Bike products has been expanded to include certain
distributors and retailers.
3-IN-ONE - The 3-IN-ONE brand consists of multi-purpose drip oil and spray lubricant products, as well as other specialty maintenance products. The drip oil is a
lubricant with unique spout options that allow for precise applications to small mechanisms and assemblies, tool maintenance and threads on screws and bolts. 3-
IN-ONE Oil is the market share leader among drip oils for household consumers. It also has wide industrial applications in such areas as locksmithing, HVAC,
marine, farming, construction and jewelry manufacturing. In addition to the drip oil line of products, the 3-IN-ONE brand also includes a professional line of
products known as 3-IN-ONE Professional, which is a line of high quality, maintenance products. 3-IN-ONE products are sold primarily in the U.S., Europe,
Canada, Latin America, Australia and Asia.
GT85® - The GT85 brand is a multi-purpose bike maintenance product that consists of professional spray maintenance products and lubricants which are sold
primarily in the bike market through the automotive and industrial channels in the U.K., with additional sales in foreign markets including those in Spain and other
European countries. GT85 products are also currently sold in the United States. This brand was acquired by the Company’s U.K. subsidiary in September 2014
and it will help to build upon the Company’s strategy to develop new product categories for WD-40 Specialist and WD-40 BIKE.
Appendices – Product Portfolio
49
X-14 - The X-14 brand is a line of quality products designed for unique cleaning needs. X-14 is sold as a liquid mildew stain remover and as an
automatic toilet bowl cleaner. X-14 is sold primarily in the U.S. through grocery and mass retail channels.
2000 Flushes - The 2000 Flushes brand is a line of long-lasting automatic toilet bowl cleaners which includes a variety of formulas. 2000 Flushes is
sold primarily in the U.S. and Canada through grocery and mass retail channels.
Carpet Fresh - The Carpet Fresh brand is a line of room and rug deodorizers sold as powder, aerosol quick-dry foam and trigger spray products.
Carpet Fresh is sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia. In the U.K., these products are sold under
the 1001 brand name and in Australia, they are sold under the No Vac brand name.
Spot Shot - The Spot Shot brand is sold as an aerosol carpet stain remover and a liquid trigger carpet stain and odor eliminator. The brand also
includes environmentally friendly products such as Spot Shot Instant Carpet Stain & Odor Eliminator™ and Spot Shot Pet Clean, which are non-toxic
and biodegradable. Spot Shot products are sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels, warehouse club stores and hardware and home
center stores in the U.S. and Canada. Spot Shot products are also sold in the U.K. under the 1001 brand name.
1001 - The 1001 brand includes carpet and household cleaners and rug and room deodorizers which are sold primarily through mass retail, grocery
and home center stores in the U.K. The brand was acquired in order to introduce the Company’s other homecare and cleaning product formulations
under the 1001 brand and to expand the Company’s homecare and cleaning products business into the U.K. market.
Lava - The Lava and Solvol brands consist of heavy-duty hand cleaner products which are sold in bar soap and liquid form through hardware, grocery,
industrial, automotive and mass retail channels. Lava is sold primarily in the U.S., while Solvol is sold exclusively in Australia.
Source: 2015 Annual Report
Appendices – Shareholder Structure
50Source: Bloomberg Data
Appendices – Can Cost Components
51
Source: Company FY15 Investor Presentation
Appendices – WDFC vs. Benchmarks
Recommendation:
Sell
2/19/2016 Closing
Price: $107.79
12-Month Price
Target: $87
Downside Potential:
19%
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
14-Feb-2011 14-Feb-2012 14-Feb-2013 14-Feb-2014 14-Feb-2015 14-Feb-2016
$
Date
WDFC
S5SPCH
SPX
S5HOUS
$1 Invested in 2011
Source: Bloomberg Historical Prices
52

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2016 CFA Institute Research Challenge: Expensive Slow-Grower

  • 1. 2016 CFA Institute Research Challenge: San Diego San Diego State University Viktoriya Demina Olga Grigorchuk Paul Lamb Ryan Neumann Hongliao Xiong
  • 2. Executive Summary – “Expensive Slow-Grower” Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Recommendation: Sell 2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79 12-Month Price Target: $87 Downside Potential: 19% 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Price/Share($) Target Price : $87 Current Price : 107 2
  • 3. •Global Marketing Company •Two product segments oMaintenance Products oHomecare Products The Americas 50%EMEA 36% Asia- Pacific 14% Business Overview Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation 3
  • 4. Competitive Positioning Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation •Americas Segment oStrong competitive positioning oMature market •EMEA and Asia-Pacific oGrowth opportunities/challenges 0 1 2 3 4 5 Buyer Power Supplier Power New Entrants Substitute Products Competitive Rivalry 0 = No Threat 1 = Minimal Threat 2 = Low Threat 3 = Moderate Threat 4 = Significant Threat 5 = High Threat 4
  • 5. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation 170 177 181 181 187 192 196 199 201 203 125 117 136 151 137 130 139 149 158 166 41 49 52 51 54 57 64 72 80 88 36 35 40 44 45 50 53 56 58 61 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E MillionsofUSDollars Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific Net income Financial Analysis – Revenue Projections 5
  • 6. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% - 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E ModifiedPayout%ofN.I. Millionsof$ Dividends + Repurchases Net Income Payout ratio Financial Analysis – Modified Payout Ratio 6
  • 7. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Financial Analysis – ROE • Inflated ROE • Cash trapped overseas ThreeStep DuPont Analysis 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Profit Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46% Asset TO 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.00 Financial Lev 1.43 1.50 1.71 1.92 2.10 2.27 2.32 2.16 2.04 1.93 ROE 18.32% 18.35% 21.82% 25.07% 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06% 7
  • 8. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Valuation – Summary $87 DCF $73.93 DCF $86.17 DDM $100.77 8
  • 9. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation WACC Analysis Risk Free Rate 2.00% S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815 Market Risk Premium 7.50% Cost Of Equity 8.11% Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pre Tax Cost of Debt 1.12% Marginal Tax Rate 0.298 After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79% Equity Financing 92.17% Debt Financing 7.83% WACC 7.54% Valuation – WACC Analysis 9
  • 10. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Terminal Value Methodology Gordon Growth Terminal Ratio (+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40 (-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00 (+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60 (=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00 (/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53 (=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17 Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79 Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1% Assumptions • 2.5% Terminal Growth Rate • 19.4x Terminal Multiple • 2020 EBITDA = $90M Valuation – Discounted Cash Flows 10
  • 11. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Valuation – DCF Sensitivity Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% $ 71.33 $ 81.56 $ 91.79 $102.02 $112.25 $122.48 $132.71 5.5% $ 68.41 $ 78.21 $ 88.01 $ 97.81 $107.61 $117.41 $127.22 6.5% $ 65.63 $ 75.03 $ 84.42 $ 93.82 $103.21 $112.60 $122.00 7.5% $ 63.00 $ 72.01 $ 81.01 $ 90.02 $ 99.03 $108.04 $117.04 8.5% $ 60.49 $ 69.13 $ 77.77 $ 86.41 $ 95.05 $103.69 $112.33 9.5% $ 58.11 $ 66.40 $ 74.69 $ 82.98 $ 91.27 $ 99.56 $107.85 10.5% $ 55.84 $ 63.80 $ 71.76 $ 79.72 $ 87.68 $ 95.64 $103.59 Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% $142.00 $155.30 $171.56 $191.89 $218.03 $252.88 $301.66 5.5% $103.08 $109.82 $117.60 $126.68 $137.40 $150.27 $166.00 6.5% $ 80.57 $ 84.57 $ 89.05 $ 94.08 $ 99.79 $106.31 $113.84 7.5% $ 65.90 $ 68.51 $ 71.38 $ 74.54 $ 78.03 $ 81.90 $ 86.24 8.5% $ 55.58 $ 57.41 $ 59.38 $ 61.52 $ 63.85 $ 66.38 $ 69.16 9.5% $ 47.93 $ 49.27 $ 50.70 $ 52.23 $ 53.87 $ 55.64 $ 57.55 10.5% $ 42.04 $ 43.05 $ 44.13 $ 45.27 $ 46.48 $ 47.77 $ 49.16 11
  • 12. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Valuation – Modified Dividend Discount Model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Dividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60% Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Dividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95 PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02 Sum (Value/Share) 100.77 12
  • 13. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Strengthening Dollar Counterfeit Reproductions and Competition Increase in Oil Prices Government Regulations and Political Instability Attracting/Retaining Quality Employees Likelihood LowMediumHigh Low Medium High Impact Investment Risks 13
  • 14. Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Index(Mar1973=100) Date Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: Major Currencies Investment Risks – Stronger US Dollar 14
  • 15. Source: Nasdaq.com Investment Risks – Price of Oil Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation 15
  • 16. • Unsustainable Payout Ratios • Low Growth • Intrinsic Values < Market Value Summary Business Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risks Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation: Sell 2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79 12-Month Price Target: $87 Downside Potential: 19% 16
  • 17. “You only need two things in life: Duct Tape and WD-40. If it moves and shouldn’t, use Duct Tape, if it doesn’t move and should, use WD-40.” Thank you for your attention 17
  • 18. 1. Cover Page 2. Executive Summary 3. Business Overview 4. Competitive Positioning 5. Revenue Projections 6. Modified Payout Ratio 7. ROE 8. Valuation Summary 9. WACC Analysis 10. DCF Analysis 11. DCF Sensitivity 12. Modified DDM 13. Investment Risks 14. Exchange Rates 15. Crude Prices Appendices – Index 16. Recommendation 17. Questions 18. Appendix Index 19. Income Statement 20. Common Size I.S. 21. Revenue by Geography 22. Revenue by Product 23. Balance Sheet 24. Balance Sheet POS 25. Cash Flows 26. Cash Flows POS 27. Schedules 28. Beta Calculation 29. Treasury Method 30. WACC Sensitivity 18 31. DCF Calculations 32. NWC Calculations 33. DCF Sensitivity (perp) 34. DCF Sensitivity (EVx) 35. Historical Multiples 36. Multiples Comps 37. Comparables 38. DDM 39. Demand Drivers 40. Suppliers 41. Counterfeiting 42. Selected Ratios 43. Ratios 44. Ratios (cont.) 45. ROE Reversal 46. Solvency 47. Strategies 48. Brands 49. Brands 50. Shareholders 51. Can Costs 52. Performance
  • 19. Appendices – Income Statement($ In Millions ) As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 Sales Growth 1.9% 7.5% 3.9% -1.3% 0.3% 5.2% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7% Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87 Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 208.55 219.48 230.43 240.20 249.18 Margin 50.0% 49.2% 51.3% 51.9% 52.9% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0% Selling, general & administrative expense 87.31 88.92 104.38 108.58 108.87 108.07 113.73 119.41 124.47 129.12 % of Sales 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% Advertising & sales promotion expense 25.13 25.70 24.81 23.92 22.88 24.65 25.94 27.23 28.39 29.45 % of Sales 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 1.54 2.13 2.26 2.62 3.04 3.03 3.02 3.02 2.76 2.26 % of Sales 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.76% 0.72% 0.63% 0.50% Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 1.08 Total operating expenses 113.98 116.75 132.53 135.12 134.79 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83 Income (loss) from operations 54.13 51.73 56.64 63.74 65.39 72.81 76.79 80.77 84.59 88.35 Operating Margin 16.1% 15.1% 15.4% 16.6% 17.3% 19.2% 19.2% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% Interest income 0.23 0.26 0.51 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 Interest expense 1.08 0.73 0.69 1.00 1.21 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 Interest Expense Increase 0.60 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other income (expense), net 0.25 -0.35 0.42 -0.37 -1.66 Income (loss) before income taxes - US 37.33 36.67 36.30 41.54 38.04 Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 16.20 14.25 20.57 21.42 25.07 Income (loss) before income taxes 53.53 50.91 56.87 62.96 63.11 71.56 75.55 79.53 83.34 87.11 Pretax Margin 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.87% 18.93% 18.98% 19.08% 19.23% Income Tax Rate 31.9% 30.3% 30.0% 30.5% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Provision for income taxes 17.10 15.43 17.05 19.21 18.30 21.47 22.66 23.86 25.00 26.13 Net income (loss) 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Income Growth -2.60% 12.20% 9.88% 2.43% 11.80% 5.57% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51% Income Margin 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46% Less: N.I. (loss) allocated to participating securities - - - - 0.27 N.I. (loss) available to common shareholders - - - - 44.54 Weighted average shares outstanding - basic 16.80 15.91 15.52 15.07 14.58 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted 16.98 16.05 15.62 15.15 14.65 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21 14.21 Net earnings (loss) per share-basic 2.168243766 2.22 2.55 2.89 3.05 3.54 3.74 3.94 4.13 4.31 Net earnings (loss) per share-diluted 2.14 2.2 2.54 2.87 3.04 3.53 3.72 3.92 4.11 4.29 EPS Growth 2.80% 15.45% 12.99% 5.92% 15.97% 5.56% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51% Dividends per share 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.33 1.48 1.77 2.24 2.36 2.48 2.59 Dividends/Share Growth 5.56% 7.02% 9.02% 11.28% 16.30% 26.72% 5.27% 4.79% 4.51% Total number of employees 334 347 369 395 433 Historical Income Statement Projected Income Statement See Rev Breakdown (next slide) Model to 55% Gross Margin % of Sales Q1 Conference Call 10K Report Source: Company Data & Team Estimates 19
  • 20. Appendices – Common Size I.S. 20 ($ In Millions ) Historical Income Statement Common Size Projected Income Statement Common Size As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Cost of products sold 50.03% 50.85% 48.67% 48.08% 47.06% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% 45.00% Gross profit (loss) 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% 55.00% Selling, general & administrative expense 25.95% 25.94% 28.32% 28.35% 28.79% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% 28.50% Advertising & sales promotion expense 7.47% 7.50% 6.73% 6.25% 6.05% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% Amortization of definite-lived intangible assets 0.46% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.80% 0.80% 0.77% 0.74% 0.66% 0.52% Impairment of definite-lived intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Total operating expenses 33.88% 34.06% 35.96% 35.28% 35.64% 35.80% 35.77% 35.74% 35.66% 35.52% Income (loss) from operations 16.09% 15.09% 15.37% 16.64% 17.29% 19.20% 19.23% 19.26% 19.34% 19.48% Interest income 0.07% 0.08% 0.14% 0.16% 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13% 0.13% Interest expense 0.32% 0.21% 0.19% 0.26% 0.32% 0.48% 0.54% 0.52% 0.50% 0.49% Other income (expense), net 0.07% -0.10% 0.11% -0.10% -0.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Income (loss) before income taxes - US 11.10% 10.70% 9.85% 10.85% 10.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Income (loss) before income taxes - foreign 4.82% 4.16% 5.58% 5.59% 6.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Income (loss) before income taxes 15.91% 14.85% 15.43% 16.44% 16.69% 18.86% 18.83% 18.88% 18.98% 19.12% Provision for income taxes 5.08% 4.50% 4.63% 5.02% 4.84% 5.66% 5.65% 5.66% 5.69% 5.74% Net income (loss) 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.18% 13.21% 13.28% 13.38%
  • 21. Appendices – Revenue Breakdown Historical % of Sales by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AVG 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Americas 50.51% 51.75% 48.98% 47.21% 49.54% 49.60% 50.63% 49.07% 47.44% 45.97% 44.75% EMEA 37.28% 34.10% 36.91% 39.53% 36.18% 36.80% 34.27% 34.85% 35.51% 36.11% 36.55% Asia-Pacific 12.22% 14.15% 14.11% 13.26% 14.28% 13.60% 15.10% 16.07% 17.14% 18.25% 19.35% Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Historical Sales Growth by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Americas (6.00%) 4.41% 1.75% 0.17% 3.60% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.00% EMEA 14.00% (6.78%) 16.34% 11.32% (9.64%) (5.00%) 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Asia-Pacific 31.00% 18.00% 7.22% (2.31%) 6.30% 6.00% 12.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% Total 5.00% 1.90% 7.50% 3.93% (1.28%) 0.29% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.74% Historical Sales by Geographic Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 16-20 CAGR Americas 169.9 177.4 180.5 180.8 187.3 2.47% 191.98 195.82 198.76 200.75 202.75 1.37% EMEA 125.4 116.9 136 151.4 136.8 2.20% 129.96 139.06 148.79 157.72 165.60 6.25% Asia-Pacific 41.1 48.5 52 50.8 54 7.06% 57.24 64.11 71.80 79.70 87.67 11.25% Total 336.4 342.8 368.5 383 378.1 2.96% 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 4.55% 49.54 % 36.18 % 14.28 % 50.63% 34.27% 15.10% Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific 44.75% 36.55% 19.35% 2015 2016E 2020E 21
  • 22. Appendices – Revenue Breakdown Date 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net sales - MUP 278.76 286.48 320.88 337.83 333.31 337.07 359.47 381.77 401.77 420.18 Y/Y % Change 8.00% 2.77% 12.01% 5.28% -1.34% 1.13% 6.64% 6.20% 5.24% 4.58% Net sales - Homecare 57.65 56.30 47.67 45.17 44.84 42.15 39.62 37.25 35.01 32.91 Y/Y % Change -9.00% -2.3% -15.3% -5.2% -0.7% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% Total Sales 336.41 342.78 368.55 383.00 378.15 379.23 399.09 419.01 436.78 453.09 Y/Y % Change 1.90% 7.52% 3.92% -1.27% 0.28% 5.24% 4.99% 4.24% 3.73% Cost of products sold 168.30 174.30 179.39 184.14 177.97 168.76 175.60 186.46 194.37 203.89 Gross profit (loss) 168.11 168.48 189.16 198.85 200.18 210.47 223.49 232.55 242.41 249.20 Gross Margin 49.97% 49.15% 51.33% 51.92% 52.94% 55.50% 56.00% 55.50% 55.50% 55.00% Historical & Project Sales by Product Segment Historical % of Sales by Product Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Maintenance Products 82.88% 83.58% 87.06% 88.20% 88.15% 88.15% 88.89% 90.08% 91.12% 91.99% Homecare and Cleaning 17.12% 16.42% 12.94% 11.80% 11.85% 11.85% 11.11% 9.92% 8.88% 8.01% Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 22
  • 23. Appendices – Balance Sheet($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Projected Balance Sheet As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Current assets: Cash GR 54.04272646 56.874565 59.714028 62.24590279 64.57078726 Cash and cash equivalents 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67 Short-term investments 0.53 1.03 37.52 45.05 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 48.60 Cash and Short-tern investments 56.93 70.75 90.95 102.85 102.50 122.53 143.21 165.17 188.31 212.27 Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67(1) 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49 Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33(2) 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24 Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 Total current assets 143.16 166.12 192.14 215.65 205.25 225.73 251.17 277.91 305.31 333.19 Property and equipment, net 8.48 9.06 8.54 9.70 11.38 14.44(3) 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97 Goodwill 95.45 95.32 95.24 95.50 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 96.41 Other intangible assets, net 29.93 27.69 24.29 23.67 22.96 19.93(4) 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87 Other assets 2.75 2.69 2.86 3.15 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 3.26 Total assets 279.78 300.87 323.06 347.68 339.26 359.77 385.08 411.50 438.69 466.71 Current liabilities: Accounts payable 19.37 $ 21.24 $ 19.69 $ 18.03 $ 17.13 $ 18.96(5) $ 19.95 $ 20.95 $ 21.84 $ 22.65 Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65(6) 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91 Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97(7) 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49 Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34 Revolving credit facility 10.72 45.00 63.00 98.00 108.00 133.00(8) 133.00 133.00 133.00 133.00 Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 21.81 24.01 24.01 24.25 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 23.15 Other long-term liabilities 2.51 1.96 1.90 2.10 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 Total liabilities $ 78.55 $ 115.41 $ 143.56 $ 178.27 $ 181.40 $ 210.29 $ 212.86 $ 215.45 $ 217.72 $ 219.77 Shareholders' equity: Common stock 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.02 Additional paid-in capital 117.02 126.21 133.24 136.21 141.65 143.23(9) 144.81 146.38 147.96 149.54 Retained earnings 176.01 193.27 214.03 237.60 260.68 285.73 306.88 329.15 352.49 376.88 AOCI -0.36 (2.73) (5.04) 1.10 (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) (8.72) Treasury Stock -91.47 (131.31) (162.74) (205.52) (235.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) (270.77) Total shareholders' equity 201.23 $ 185.46 $ 179.51 $ 169.42 $ 157.86 $ 149.48 $ 172.21 $ 196.06 $ 220.97 $ 246.94 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 279.78 $ 300.87 $ 323.06 $ 347.68 $ 339.26 $ 359.77 $ 385.08 $ 411.50 $ 438.69 $ 466.71 23
  • 24. Appendices – Balance Sheet % of Sales ($ In Millions ) Historical Balance Sheet Common Size Projected Balance Sheet Common Size As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents 20.16% 23.17% 16.54% 16.63% 15.89% 20.55% 24.57% 28.33% 31.85% 35.07% Short-term investments 0.19% 0.34% 11.61% 12.96% 14.33% 13.51% 12.62% 11.81% 11.08% 10.41% Accounts Receivable, net 20.85% 18.44% 17.61% 18.30% 17.32% 16.86% 16.58% 16.29% 15.93% 15.53% Inventories 6.29% 9.90% 10.04% 10.06% 9.45% 8.43% 8.29% 8.15% 7.96% 7.77% Current deferred tax assets, net 6.29% 1.84% 1.76% 1.68% 1.72% 1.62% 1.51% 1.42% 1.33% 1.25% Other current assets 1.73% 1.50% 1.92% 2.40% 1.81% 1.70% 1.59% 1.49% 1.40% 1.31% Total current assets 51.17% 55.21% 59.48% 62.03% 60.50% 62.74% 65.23% 67.54% 69.60% 71.39% Property and equipment, net 3.03% 3.01% 2.64% 2.79% 3.35% 4.01% 4.50% 4.87% 5.15% 5.35% Goodwill 34.12% 31.68% 29.48% 27.47% 28.42% 26.80% 25.04% 23.43% 21.98% 20.66% Other intangible assets, net 10.70% 9.20% 7.52% 6.81% 6.77% 5.54% 4.39% 3.38% 2.54% 1.90% Other assets 0.98% 0.89% 0.88% 0.91% 0.96% 0.91% 0.85% 0.79% 0.74% 0.70% Total assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Current liabilities: Accounts payable 6.92% 7.06% 6.10% 5.19% 5.05% 5.27% 5.18% 5.09% 4.98% 4.85% Accrued liabilities 5.45% 5.48% 5.13% 5.29% 4.48% 4.90% 4.82% 4.73% 4.61% 4.48% Accrued payroll and related expenses 2.67% 1.96% 5.34% 4.59% 3.94% 3.60% 3.54% 3.48% 3.40% 3.32% Income taxes payable 0.51% 0.27% 0.35% 0.44% 0.67% 0.64% 0.59% 0.56% 0.52% 0.49% Total current liabilities 15.55% 14.77% 16.91% 15.51% 14.14% 14.41% 14.14% 13.86% 13.52% 13.14% Revolving credit facility 3.83% 14.96% 19.50% 28.19% 31.83% 36.97% 34.54% 32.32% 30.32% 28.50% Long-term deferred tax liabilities, net 7.80% 7.98% 7.43% 6.98% 6.82% 6.43% 6.01% 5.62% 5.28% 4.96% Other long-term liabilities 0.90% 0.65% 0.59% 0.60% 0.67% 0.63% 0.59% 0.55% 0.52% 0.49% Total liabilities 28.08% 38.36% 44.44% 51.27% 53.47% 58.45% 55.28% 52.36% 49.63% 47.09% Shareholders' equity: Common stock 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Additional paid-in capital 41.83% 41.95% 41.24% 39.18% 41.75% 39.81% 37.60% 35.57% 33.73% 32.04% Retained earnings 62.91% 64.24% 66.25% 68.34% 76.84% 79.42% 79.69% 79.99% 80.35% 80.75% AOCI -0.13% -0.91% -1.56% 0.32% -2.57% -2.42% -2.27% -2.12% -1.99% -1.87% Treasury Stock -32.69% -43.64% -50.37% -59.11% -69.50% -75.26% -70.32% -65.80% -61.72% -58.02% Total shareholders' equity 71.92% 61.64% 55.56% 48.73% 46.53% 41.55% 44.72% 47.64% 50.37% 52.91% Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 24
  • 25. Appendices – Cash Flow Statements 25 ($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Projected Statement of Cash Flows As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Operating activities: Net income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Adjustments to net income: Depreciation and amortization 4.39 4.87 5.36 5.86 6.46 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36 Impairment of long-lived assets - - 1.08 - - - - - - - Net (gains) losses on sales of PPE 0.15 0.07 0.00 (0.04) (0.07) - - - - - Deferred income taxes 2.83 0.37 (1.00) (0.74) (1.33) - - - - - Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards (1.20) (0.67) (0.85) (0.83) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) (1.21) Stock-based compensation 3.03 2.77 2.45 2.26 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.47 2.11 1.11 (0.07) 2.09 - - - - - Provision for bad debts 0.16 0.16 0.51 0.22 0.30 - - - - - Changes in assets and liabilities: - - - - - Trade accounts receivable (9.78) 0.23 (3.80) (5.82) (0.31) (1.92) (3.18) (3.19) (2.84) (2.61) Inventories (2.65) (12.35) (2.83) (2.24) 2.04 1.72 (1.59) (1.59) (1.42) (1.30) Other assets 2.80 (0.06) (2.00) (2.21) 1.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.66 3.21 (0.89) (0.56) (2.46) 4.28 1.90 1.90 1.66 1.49 Accrued payroll and related expenses (7.80) (2.79) 10.36 (3.05) (2.72) (0.39) 0.68 0.68 0.61 0.56 Income taxes payable 2.66 1.41 2.28 2.00 2.74 - - - - - Other long-term liabilities (2.15) (0.55) (0.04) 0.19 0.23 - - - - - Net cash provided by operating activities 30.01 34.25 51.57 38.73 55.06 61.58 58.90 61.87 64.64 67.05 Investing activities: Purchases of property and equipment (2.88) (3.77) (2.85) (4.09) (5.78) -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.17 1.17 0.16 0.33 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Purchase of intangible assets - - - (1.80) - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Acquisition of business - - - - (4.12) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Purchases of short-term investments (0.52) (1.03) (38.84) (7.71) (10.58) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Maturities of short-term investments - 0.51 2.00 2.76 3.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net cash used in investing activities (3.22) (3.11) (39.53) (10.50) (16.95) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) (6.50) Financing activities: TS purchases and Dividends Paid (59.63) (58.07) (50.48) (62.96) (51.98) (60.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58) Treasury stock purchases (41) (39.84) (31.44) (42.77) (30.26) -35.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dividends paid (18.23) (18.23) (19.04) (20.18) (21.72) -25.05 -31.73 -33.40 -35.00 -36.58 Proceeds from issuance of common stock (5.00) 7.03 4.79 1.28 2.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards (18.23) 0.67 0.85 0.83 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Proceeds from revolving credit facility 20.22 114.55 18.00 35.00 10.00 25.00 - - - - Repayments of revolving credit facility (41.40) (69.55) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Repayments of long-term debt 1.20 (10.72) - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net cash used in financing activities (48.93) (16.08) (26.84) (25.84) (38.66) (35.05) (31.73) (33.40) (35.00) (36.58) Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 2.61 (1.73) (1.48) 1.98 (3.36) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents (19.54) 13.33 (16.29) 4.37 (3.91) 20.04 20.67 21.96 23.14 23.97 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 75.93 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 73.93 94.60 116.57 139.70 163.67
  • 26. Appendices – Cash Flow % of Sales 26 ($ In Millions ) Historical Statement of Cash Flows Common Size Projected Statement of Cash Flows Common Size As of August 31, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Operating activities: Net income 10.83% 10.35% 10.80% 11.42% 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46% Adjustments to net income: Depreciation and amortization 1.30% 1.42% 1.45% 1.53% 1.71% 1.64% 1.66% 1.63% 1.54% 1.40% Impairment of long-lived assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Net (gains) losses on sales and disposals of property and equipment 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% -0.01% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Deferred income taxes 0.84% 0.11% -0.27% -0.19% -0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards -0.36% -0.20% -0.23% -0.22% -0.32% -0.32% -0.30% -0.29% -0.28% -0.27% Stock-based compensation 0.90% 0.81% 0.67% 0.59% 0.74% 0.73% 0.70% 0.66% 0.64% 0.61% Unrealized foreign currency exchange losses (gains), net 0.14% 0.62% 0.30% -0.02% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Provision for bad debts 0.05% 0.05% 0.14% 0.06% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Changes in assets and liabilities: Trade accounts receivable -2.91% 0.07% -1.03% -1.52% -0.08% -0.51% -0.80% -0.76% -0.65% -0.58% Inventories -0.79% -3.60% -0.77% -0.58% 0.54% 0.45% -0.40% -0.38% -0.33% -0.29% Other assets 0.83% -0.02% -0.54% -0.58% 0.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 0.20% 0.94% -0.24% -0.15% -0.65% 1.13% 0.48% 0.45% 0.38% 0.33% Accrued payroll and related expenses -2.32% -0.82% 2.81% -0.80% -0.72% -0.10% 0.17% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% Income taxes payable 0.79% 0.41% 0.62% 0.52% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Other long-term liabilities -0.64% -0.16% -0.01% 0.05% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Net cash provided by operating activities 8.92% 9.99% 13.99% 10.11% 14.56% 16.24% 14.76% 14.77% 14.80% 14.80% Investing activities: Purchases of property and equipment -0.85% -1.10% -0.77% -1.07% -1.53% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43% Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.05% 0.34% 0.04% 0.09% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Purchase of intangible assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Acquisition of business 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Purchases of short-term investments -0.15% -0.30% -10.54% -2.01% -2.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Maturities of short-term investments 0.00% 0.15% 0.54% 0.72% 0.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Net cash used in investing activities -0.96% -0.91% -10.73% -2.74% -4.48% -1.71% -1.63% -1.55% -1.49% -1.43% Financing activities: Treasury stock purchases -12.31% -11.62% -8.53% -11.17% -8.00% -9.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Dividends paid -5.42% -5.32% -5.17% -5.27% -5.74% -6.61% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08% Proceeds from issuance of common stock -1.49% 2.05% 1.30% 0.34% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Excess tax benefits from settlements of stock-based equity awards -5.42% 0.20% 0.23% 0.22% 0.32% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Proceeds from revolving credit facility 6.01% 33.42% 4.88% 9.14% 2.64% 6.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Repayments of revolving credit facility -12.31% -20.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Repayments of long-term debt 0.36% -3.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Net cash used in financing activities -14.55% -4.69% -7.28% -6.75% -10.22% -9.24% -7.95% -7.97% -8.02% -8.08% Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 0.78% -0.50% -0.40% 0.52% -0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents -5.81% 3.89% -4.42% 1.14% -1.03% 5.28% 5.18% 5.24% 5.30% 5.29% Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 22.57% 16.45% 18.92% 13.95% 15.29% 14.21% 18.53% 22.58% 26.69% 30.84% Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 16.76% 20.34% 14.50% 15.09% 14.25% 19.50% 23.71% 27.82% 31.99% 36.13% Cash paid for: Interest 0.29% 0.19% 0.19% 0.24% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Income taxes, net of tax refunds received 3.40% 3.86% 4.51% 4.74% 4.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
  • 27. Appendices – Schedules PPE Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Beginning, net 11.38 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58 CAPEX 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Depreciation (3.43) (3.61) (3.79) (3.96) (4.10) Ending 14.44 17.33 20.03 22.58 24.97 Amortization Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Beginning 22.96 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13 Amortization (3.03) (3.02) (3.02) (2.76) (2.26) Ending 19.93 16.91 13.89 11.13 8.87 Dividend Payout Schedule 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Weighted average shares outstanding 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 14.14 Dividend 25.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 60.05 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Dividend + TS 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 27
  • 28. Appendices – Beta Calculation 28
  • 29. Appendices – FDSO (Treasury Method) Share Price, 1-year Average $ 87.02 Stock Options Outstanding as of 08/31/15 62,620 Weighted-Average Exercise Price $ 34.97 Cash Proceeds $2,189,821 Shares Repurchased 25,165 Restricted Stock Units (RSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 136,895 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 47.19 Cash Proceeds $6,460,075 Shares Repurchased 74,237 Market Share Units (MSU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 57,604 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 57.37 Cash Proceeds $3,304,741 Shares Repurchased 37,977 Deferred Performance Units (DPU) Outstanding as of 08/31/15 30,798 Weighted-Average Grant Date Fair Value $ 75.14 Cash Proceeds $2,314,162 Shares Repurchased 26,593 Basic Shares Outstanding as of 11/30/15 14,406,219 Plus: New Shares from Exercise of Options, Rights and Warrants 287,917 Less: Shares Repurchased 163,971 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 14,530,165 29
  • 30. Sensitivity Analysis - WACC Calculation Risk Free Rate 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Market Risk Premium 3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1% 6.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3% 7.5% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 8.9% 9.4% 9.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.2% 8.7% 9.1% 9.6% 10.0% 10.5% 10.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 10.3% 10.7% 11.2% 11.6% 12.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8% Appendices – WACC Sensitivity WACC Analysis Risk Free Rate 2.00% S&P 500 Adjusted Beta 0.815 Market Risk Premium 7.50% Cost Of Equity 8.11% Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12% Marginal Tax Rate 0.298 After Tax Cost of Debt 0.79% Equity Financing 92.17% Debt Financing 7.83% WACC 7.54% Cost of Debt - preferred method Interest Expense $ 1,205,000 Debt Outstanding $ 108,000,000 Pretax Cost of Debt 1.12% Marginal Tax Rate 0.298 After Tax Cost of Debt 0.78% 30 Cost of Debt Calculations Using Current Credit Agreement Terms Debt USD LIBOR - 3mo* Margin LIBOR+ Margin Outstanding Balance Commitment Fee** Revolving Line of Credit 0.62110% 0.85% 1.47% $108,000,000 0.13% Pretax Cost of Debt 1.52% Marginal Tax Rate 0.298 After Tax Cost of Debt 1.07% *Source: http://www.global-rates.com/ ** applied to the portion of the total credit facility commitment that has not been borrowed
  • 31. Appendices – DCF Calculations Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Year 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Value (+) Revenue 379.18 399.05 418.97 436.74 453.05 (-) COGS 170.63 179.57 188.54 196.53 203.87 (-) Operating Costs 135.74 142.69 149.66 155.62 160.83 (=) Operating Profit 51.11 53.91 56.70 59.38 62.02 62.021 (-) Change in NWC -3.54 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19 0 (-) Investments in Fixed Capital -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 -6.50 0 (-) Depreciation 6.22 6.63 6.81 6.72 6.36 0 (=) FCF 54.37 49.02 51.98 55.07 57.69 1261.58 (^) Present Value 52.43 43.96 43.34 42.70 41.60 909.64 Terminal Value with Multiple 2020E EBITDA 90.61 (*)Exit Multiple 19.4 (=)Terminal Value 1757.82 Discounted Terminal Value 1267.44 Perpetuity TerminalX (+) Sum of PVs (Fair Value) 1133.67 1311.40 (-) Net Debt 108.00 108.00 (+) Excess Cash 48.60 48.60 (=) Equity Value 1074.27 1252.00 (/) Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.53 14.53 (=) Share Price $73.93 $86.17 Feb 19, 2016 Price $107.79 Estimated Upside -31.4% -20.1% 31
  • 32. Appendices – NWC Calculations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Cash (Required) 56.39 69.72 53.43 57.80 53.90 54.04 56.87 59.71 62.25 64.57 Accounts Receivable, net 58.32 55.49 56.88 63.62 58.75 60.67 63.85 67.04 69.88 72.49 Inventories 17.60 29.80 32.43 34.99 32.05 30.33 31.92 33.52 34.94 36.24 Current deferred tax assets, net 4.85 5.55 5.67 5.86 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 Other current assets 5.45 4.53 6.21 8.34 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 6.13 Total current assets 142.62 165.08 154.63 170.60 156.65 157.00 164.60 172.22 179.01 185.25 Accounts payable 19.37 21.24 19.69 18.03 17.13 18.96 19.95 20.95 21.84 22.65 Accrued liabilities 15.26 16.49 16.56 18.38 15.20 17.65 18.55 19.46 20.23 20.91 Accrued payroll and related expenses 7.47 5.90 17.24 15.97 13.36 12.97 13.65 14.33 14.94 15.49 Income taxes payable 1.41 0.81 1.15 1.53 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 Total current liabilities 43.52 44.45 54.65 53.91 47.97 51.86 54.44 57.02 59.29 61.34 Net Working Capital (NWC) 99.11 120.64 99.98 116.69 108.68 105.14 110.16 115.20 119.72 123.91 Change in NWC 21.53 (20.66) 16.71 (8.02) (3.54) 5.02 5.04 4.53 4.19 32
  • 33. Appendices – DCF Sensitivity Sensitivity Analysis - Perpetuity Growth Terminal Growth Rate $73.93 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% $142.00 $155.30 $171.56 $191.89 $218.03 $252.88 $301.66 5.5% $103.08 $109.82 $117.60 $126.68 $137.40 $150.27 $166.00 6.5% $ 80.57 $ 84.57 $ 89.05 $ 94.08 $ 99.79 $106.31 $113.84 7.5% $ 65.90 $ 68.51 $ 71.38 $ 74.54 $ 78.03 $ 81.90 $ 86.24 8.5% $ 55.58 $ 57.41 $ 59.38 $ 61.52 $ 63.85 $ 66.38 $ 69.16 9.5% $ 47.93 $ 49.27 $ 50.70 $ 52.23 $ 53.87 $ 55.64 $ 57.55 10.5% $ 42.04 $ 43.05 $ 44.13 $ 45.27 $ 46.48 $ 47.77 $ 49.16 Estimated Upside Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% 31.7% 44.1% 59.2% 78.0% 102.3% 134.6% 179.9% 5.5% -4.4% 1.9% 9.1% 17.5% 27.5% 39.4% 54.0% 6.5% -25.3% -21.5% -17.4% -12.7% -7.4% -1.4% 5.6% 7.5% -38.9% -36.4% -33.8% -30.8% -27.6% -24.0% -20.0% 8.5% -48.4% -46.7% -44.9% -42.9% -40.8% -38.4% -35.8% 9.5% -55.5% -54.3% -53.0% -51.5% -50.0% -48.4% -46.6% 10.5% -61.0% -60.1% -59.1% -58.0% -56.9% -55.7% -54.4% Implied EV/EBITDA Terminal Growth Rate 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25% Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% 23.56 25.98 28.94 32.63 37.39 43.72 52.59 5.5% 17.28 18.56 20.03 21.76 23.79 26.23 29.22 6.5% 13.64 14.43 15.32 16.32 17.45 18.74 20.23 7.5% 11.27 11.81 12.40 13.05 13.77 14.57 15.47 8.5% 9.60 9.99 10.42 10.88 11.38 11.92 12.52 9.5% 8.36 8.66 8.98 9.32 9.69 10.09 10.52 10.5% 7.40 7.64 7.89 8.16 8.44 8.74 9.07 33
  • 34. Appendices – DCF Sensitivity Sensitivity Analysis - Terminal EBITDA Multiple EV/EBITDA $86.17 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% $ 71.33 $ 81.56 $ 91.79 $102.02 $112.25 $122.48 $132.71 5.5% $ 68.41 $ 78.21 $ 88.01 $ 97.81 $107.61 $117.41 $127.22 6.5% $ 65.63 $ 75.03 $ 84.42 $ 93.82 $103.21 $112.60 $122.00 7.5% $ 63.00 $ 72.01 $ 81.01 $ 90.02 $ 99.03 $108.04 $117.04 8.5% $ 60.49 $ 69.13 $ 77.77 $ 86.41 $ 95.05 $103.69 $112.33 9.5% $ 58.11 $ 66.40 $ 74.69 $ 82.98 $ 91.27 $ 99.56 $107.85 10.5% $ 55.84 $ 63.80 $ 71.76 $ 79.72 $ 87.68 $ 95.64 $103.59 Estimated Upside EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% -37.3% -27.8% -18.3% -8.8% 0.7% 10.2% 19.7% 5.5% -40.0% -30.9% -21.8% -12.7% -3.6% 5.5% 14.6% 6.5% -42.6% -33.8% -25.1% -16.4% -7.7% 1.0% 9.7% 7.5% -45.0% -36.6% -28.3% -19.9% -11.6% -3.2% 5.1% 8.5% -47.3% -39.3% -31.3% -23.3% -15.3% -7.2% 0.8% 9.5% -49.5% -41.8% -34.1% -26.5% -18.8% -11.1% -3.4% 10.5% -51.6% -44.2% -36.9% -29.5% -22.1% -14.7% -7.3% Implied Perpetuity Growth EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.4 23.4 25.4 Discount Rate (WACC) 4.5% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 5.5% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 6.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 7.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 8.5% 4.1% 4.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 9.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 10.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 34
  • 35. Appendices – Multiples History 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 Multiple P/E EV/EBITDA WDFC Historical Valuation Multiples Source: Bloomberg Data 35
  • 36. Historical P/E Historical EV/EBITDA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 WDFC US 22.2x 22.5x 23.9x 27.4x 13.1x 13.9x 14.5x 16.9x NEU US 14.3x 18.7x 21.6x 19.4x 9.6x 11.3x 13.1x 12.4x CHMT US 18.5x 54.2x 5.0x 13.1x 8.2x 13.8x 2.7x - ASH US 35.0x 12.0x 41.0x 14.8x 11.9x 7.2x 20.8x 11.5x ALB US 14.2x 12.4x 20.2x 14.4x 11.6x 8.5x 14.0x 14.3x UNVR US - - - 52.5x - - - 8.3x GCP US - - - 8.8x - - - 7.8x CC US - - - 4.2x - - - 7.8x PAH US - - - 10.5x - - 54.8x 8.7x EMN US 12.7x 12.5x 11.1x 9.3x 13.0x 7.1x 11.6x - DD US 13.9x 18.8x 23.2x 24.6x 10.4x 12.5x 12.9x 13.5x MTX US 18.5x 24.9x 18.2x 10.5x 6.3x 9.6x 14.4x - Min 12.7x 12.0x 5.0x 4.2x 6.3x 7.1x 2.7x 7.8x Max 35.0x 54.2x 41.0x 52.5x 13.0x 13.8x 54.8x 14.3x Mean 18.2x 21.9x 20.0x 16.6x 10.1x 10.0x 18.0x 10.5x Appendices – Multiples Comparison 36
  • 37. Company Market Cap (M) Adj. Beta 5Y Rev Growth 6m Return Div. Yield Gross Margin EBITDA/ Int. Exp. Current EV (M) EV/Rev EV/EBITDA P/E 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E WDFC US $1,496.80 0.752 2.90% 17.80% 1.46% 55.60% 59.6x $1,502.00 3.2x 19.2x 18.6x 30.6x 28.3x NEU US $3,988.10 0.842 1.10% -14.70% 1.72% 32.00% 27.2x $4,389.30 2.3x 11.6x 11.5x 17.9x 17.7x CHMT US $1,733.70 1.252 -7.70% -9.60% 0.00% 26.40% 16.0x $1,934.70 0.9x 7.7x 6.6x 18.0x 14.1x ASH US $5,812.30 0.954 -2.20% -19.60% 1.64% 33.70% 4.8x $8,810.30 1.7x 7.9x 7.6x 12.9x 11.5x ALB US $5,765.00 1.541 10.80% 1.80% 2.23% 34.50% 8.6x $9,503.90 2.2x 10.5x 9.9x 14.0x 13.2x UNVR US $1,654.10 - - -45.60% 0.00% 16.70% 1.7x $4,621.10 - 7.8x 7.9x 37.4x 10.7x GCP US $1,115.40 - - - - - - $1,840.40 - 7.5x 7.4x 8.1x 11.0x CC US $702.20 - - -63.30% 0.77% 17.80% - $4,453.20 - 7.6x 6.6x 5.5x 4.7x PAH US $1,255.30 1.68 - -71.80% 0.00% 40.60% - $4,716.30 6.3x 8.5x 6.2x 9.5x 6.7x EMN US $9,014.50 1.175 9.30% -19.70% 2.74% 28.40% - $16,064.50 - 7.3x 6.9x 8.7x 7.8x DD US $50,906.20 0.897 -5.80% 9.80% 2.95% 35.70% 11.0x $53,951.20 2.4x 10.8x 9.5x 19.4x 16.7x MTX US $1,540.40 1.532 18.00% -25.30% 0.45% 25.40% - $2,600.50 1.5x 7.1x 6.7x 10.0x 9.0x Mean 1.181 3.30% -21.80% 1.27% 31.50% 18.4x 2.6x 9.4x 8.8x 16.0x 12.6x St. Deviation 0.323 8.30% 27.20% 1.05% 10.30% 18.5x 1.6x 3.3x 3.3x 9.2x 6.0x Median 1.175 2.00% -19.60% 1.46% 32.00% 11.0x 2.2x 7.8x 7.5x 13.4x 11.2x Appendices – Comparables 37
  • 38. Appendices – DDM Gordon Growth Model 2020E Payout/Share 3.35 Discount Rate 7.54% 2019E Growth Rate 4.79% Terminal Value 121.95 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Dividends + Repurchases 59.63 58.07 50.48 62.96 51.98 60.05 31.73 33.40 35.00 36.58 Net Income 36.43 35.49 39.81 43.75 44.81 50.09 52.88 55.67 58.34 60.97 Payout ratio 164% 164% 127% 144% 116% 120% 60% 60% 60% 60% Payout/share 3.51 3.62 3.23 4.16 3.55 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Terminal Dividends + Repurchases 4.23 2.23 2.35 2.46 3.35 121.95 Discount Rate (WACC) 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% Growth Rate 19.09% -47.14% 5.27% 4.79% PV 3.93 1.93 1.89 93.02 Sum (Value/Share) 100.77 38
  • 39. 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 PMILevel Period Eurozone PMI China PMI U.S. PMI 2,920 2,940 2,960 2,980 3,000 3,020 3,040 3,060 Miles(millions) Date Source: Bloomberg Data 22,500 23,000 23,500 24,000 24,500 25,000 25,500 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $/Vehicle DateSource: Bloomberg Data Historical PMI Levels US vehicles Miles on Public Roads AVG US Expenditure/Vehicle Appendices – Demand Drivers Source: Bloomberg Data 39
  • 40. Appendices – WDFC Suppliers 6.78% 3.70% 1.91% 1.51% 0.85% 0.29% 0.22% 0.13% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% PercentageofTotalRevenue Company • Large Retailers Responsible for 15% of Sales • Sacrifice Pricing Power • Give-up Margin Expansion Potential • Already sell at a Premium • Difficult to grow sales from Price Increases • Further Pressure on performance of MUP products Source: Bloomberg Data 40
  • 41. Appendices - Counterfeiting Issue “In addition, from time to time the Company discovers products in certain markets that are counterfeit reproductions of the Company’s products as well as products otherwise bearing an infringing trade dress.” (FY 14 10K)“ “In addition, the Company frequently discovers products in certain markets that are counterfeit reproductions of the Company’s products as well as products otherwise bearing an infringing trade dress.” (FY 15 10K) 41
  • 42.  Healthy Balance Sheet  High Liquidity  Strong Cash Position  $90.8 million out of $102.5 million cash held outside of the U.S. as the end of FY 15 Profitability Ratios 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ROA 13.05% 14.33% 14.20% 13.98% 13.72% 13.47% ROE 27.38% 32.60% 32.88% 30.23% 27.98% 26.06% Profit Margin 11.85% 13.21% 13.25% 13.29% 13.36% 13.46% Liquidity Ratios 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current Ratio 4.28 4.35 4.61 4.87 5.15 5.43 Quick Ratio 3.36 3.53 3.80 4.07 4.35 4.64 Appendices – Selected Ratios 42
  • 45. We project that ROE will decrease from 32.6% in FY16E to 20.06% in FY20E ROE Trend 2011 -2020E Appendices – ROE reversal 45
  • 46. LT Debt/LT Capital and LT Debt/Total Equity Trend Increasing the use of revolving credit line for share purchases has negative effect on solvency Appendices – Solvency Trend 46
  • 47. Appendices – Business Strategies • Maximizing Sales of Flagship Product (WD-40 Multi-Use Product) • Growing the WD-40 Specialist Product Line • Extending Product and Revenue Base • Attracting, Developing and Retaining Talented People • Operating with Excellence 47
  • 48. Appendices – Product Portfolio 48 WD-40 Multi-Use Product - The WD-40 multi -use product is a market leader among multi-purpose maintenance products and is sold as an aerosol spray, a non- aerosol trigger spray and in liquid form through mass retail stores, hardware stores, warehouse club stores, automotive parts outlets and industrial distributors and suppliers. The WD-40 multi-use product is sold worldwide in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia and the Pacific Rim, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The WD-40 multi-use product has a wide variety of consumer uses in, for example, household, marine, automotive, construction, repair, sporting goods and gardening applications, in addition to numerous industrial applications WD-40 Specialist product line – WD-40 Specialist, introduced in 2011, consists of a line of best-in-class specialty maintenance products that include penetrants, degreasers, corrosion inhibitors, lubricants and rust removers that are aimed at an expanded group of end users that currently use the WD-40 multi-use product. The Company initially launched the WD-40 Specialist product line early in fiscal year 2012 and it currently sells these products in the U.S., Canada and select countries in Latin America, Asia, Australia and Europe. WD-40 Bike product line - The WD-40 Bike product line consists of a comprehensive line of bicycle maintenance products that include wet and dry chain lubricants, heavy-duty degreasers, foaming wash and frame protectants that are designed specifically for avid cyclists, bike enthusiasts and mechanics. The Company launched this product line in the U.S. early in fiscal year 2013 and in Australia and Europe near the end of fiscal year 2014. Although the initial focus for such sales was on smaller independent bike dealers, primarily those in the U.S., distribution of WD-40 Bike products has been expanded to include certain distributors and retailers. 3-IN-ONE - The 3-IN-ONE brand consists of multi-purpose drip oil and spray lubricant products, as well as other specialty maintenance products. The drip oil is a lubricant with unique spout options that allow for precise applications to small mechanisms and assemblies, tool maintenance and threads on screws and bolts. 3- IN-ONE Oil is the market share leader among drip oils for household consumers. It also has wide industrial applications in such areas as locksmithing, HVAC, marine, farming, construction and jewelry manufacturing. In addition to the drip oil line of products, the 3-IN-ONE brand also includes a professional line of products known as 3-IN-ONE Professional, which is a line of high quality, maintenance products. 3-IN-ONE products are sold primarily in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Latin America, Australia and Asia. GT85® - The GT85 brand is a multi-purpose bike maintenance product that consists of professional spray maintenance products and lubricants which are sold primarily in the bike market through the automotive and industrial channels in the U.K., with additional sales in foreign markets including those in Spain and other European countries. GT85 products are also currently sold in the United States. This brand was acquired by the Company’s U.K. subsidiary in September 2014 and it will help to build upon the Company’s strategy to develop new product categories for WD-40 Specialist and WD-40 BIKE.
  • 49. Appendices – Product Portfolio 49 X-14 - The X-14 brand is a line of quality products designed for unique cleaning needs. X-14 is sold as a liquid mildew stain remover and as an automatic toilet bowl cleaner. X-14 is sold primarily in the U.S. through grocery and mass retail channels. 2000 Flushes - The 2000 Flushes brand is a line of long-lasting automatic toilet bowl cleaners which includes a variety of formulas. 2000 Flushes is sold primarily in the U.S. and Canada through grocery and mass retail channels. Carpet Fresh - The Carpet Fresh brand is a line of room and rug deodorizers sold as powder, aerosol quick-dry foam and trigger spray products. Carpet Fresh is sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia. In the U.K., these products are sold under the 1001 brand name and in Australia, they are sold under the No Vac brand name. Spot Shot - The Spot Shot brand is sold as an aerosol carpet stain remover and a liquid trigger carpet stain and odor eliminator. The brand also includes environmentally friendly products such as Spot Shot Instant Carpet Stain & Odor Eliminator™ and Spot Shot Pet Clean, which are non-toxic and biodegradable. Spot Shot products are sold primarily through grocery and mass retail channels, warehouse club stores and hardware and home center stores in the U.S. and Canada. Spot Shot products are also sold in the U.K. under the 1001 brand name. 1001 - The 1001 brand includes carpet and household cleaners and rug and room deodorizers which are sold primarily through mass retail, grocery and home center stores in the U.K. The brand was acquired in order to introduce the Company’s other homecare and cleaning product formulations under the 1001 brand and to expand the Company’s homecare and cleaning products business into the U.K. market. Lava - The Lava and Solvol brands consist of heavy-duty hand cleaner products which are sold in bar soap and liquid form through hardware, grocery, industrial, automotive and mass retail channels. Lava is sold primarily in the U.S., while Solvol is sold exclusively in Australia. Source: 2015 Annual Report
  • 50. Appendices – Shareholder Structure 50Source: Bloomberg Data
  • 51. Appendices – Can Cost Components 51 Source: Company FY15 Investor Presentation
  • 52. Appendices – WDFC vs. Benchmarks Recommendation: Sell 2/19/2016 Closing Price: $107.79 12-Month Price Target: $87 Downside Potential: 19% 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 14-Feb-2011 14-Feb-2012 14-Feb-2013 14-Feb-2014 14-Feb-2015 14-Feb-2016 $ Date WDFC S5SPCH SPX S5HOUS $1 Invested in 2011 Source: Bloomberg Historical Prices 52

Editor's Notes

  1. We used Porter’s five forces to break down the Competitive environment that WD-40 operates in. Looking specifically at their MUP product line, responsible for 88% of sales we determined that in the mature Americas segment, WDFC is well positioned to defend market share with economies of scale & low-cost distribution in place as well as high brand recognition & loyalty (8/10 US HH) to their products priced in the premium range. However in emerging markets within EMEA and Asia Pacific regions WDFC does not possess the same brand recognition advantage. Here more competitors & counterfeiters operate in a highly competitive environment reducing WDFC’s pricing power. Also as barriers to entry are decreasing from lower-cost production the threat of new entrants rises. Although more available market share exists in these regions, more substitutes, and greater competitive rivalry make growth expensive and difficult in a region where the Company is anticipating the majority of future growth to come from these markets, Other factors worth noting that affect the future outlook for WDFC include favorable tailwinds from declining input costs from lower energy & transportation prices, discounted access to capital from a low interests rate and improving consumer confidence from lower retail fuel prices and decreasing unemployment. Major headwinds include slowing in GDP growth, a slowdown in manufacturing (a major demand driver for MRO users who use much more product volume), uncertainty in financial and emerging markets, and a strengthening US dollar.
  2. Keeping those macro trends in mind we move to the internal analysis of the firm. To develop our forward looking statements we used a percentage of sales method, modeling to a gross margin of 55% as we anticipate a 3 % y/y margin expansion from the reduction of input costs. To determine top-line total sales growth we broke down historical performance geographically and within each product segment. As WD-40 admits to not spending any $ on HHCP segment we assume continued 6% annual runoff in this segment further increasing the pressure on MUP product performance. A 3 % CAGR since 2011 has been carried by 7 % growth in Asia Pacific. Total sales declined 1 & ¼ % in 2015 which the Company attributes to poor exchange rates. Company guidance is for 393-401M (4% increase) In our view we think exposure to exchange rate risk still exists, market conditions remain unstable in Russia and East Europe (responsible for 35-40% of EMEA distributor markets), counterfeiting is admittedly a bigger issue than the Company had expected plus manufacturing & GDP in China is slowing where WDFC now has 50 employees and is counting on future expansion, we project 29 BP top line growth for 2016 Considering our Sell recommendation we approached it with optimistic sales projections whowing above average growth returning in 2017 and beyond, let by double-digit growth in China. Even with optimistic numbers as we’ll get into with our valuation, intrinsic values are well below current market values.
  3. Utilizing a 7.5 % discount rate and 2.5% perpetuity growth (historical world GDP) and dividing the equity present value by 14.53M shares outstanding we arrive at an intrinsic value just below $74/share. If we look at a takeout multiple upon maturity in 5 years we believe the company would deem a 19.4 multiple from their FY 15 EV/EBITDA trailing Multiple of 16.9 with a 15% premium per historical trends, keeping them at peak valuation to their peers. Our projected 2020 EBITDA of $90M at 19x discounts back to an intrinsic value of $86, 20% below current market value.