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Chapter 7: Just-in-Time and Lean Systems
Overview
This chapter examines the core beliefs of just-in-time systems
(JIT). The goal of reducing waste is important in JIT. JIT uses
a pull system, which is different than the push system. The key
elements of JIT are described. The critical role of TQM in JIT
is explained. The role of the employees in JIT is explained.
Finally, we gain an understanding of the impact of JIT on all
functional areas within both service and manufacturing
organizations.
Answers to Discussion Questions in Textbook
1. Describe the core beliefs of the JIT philosophy.
The core beliefs of JIT are the elimination of waste, the ability
of the employees to see the “big picture,” simple solutions,
continuous improvement, visibility and flexibility. JIT strives
to produce the right products at the right time in the right
quantities. Continuous improvement and flexibility are
important beliefs that help us achieve this goal.
2. Identify the three major elements of JIT.
The three major elements of JIT are just-in-time manufacturing,
total quality management (TQM) and respect for people.
3. Explain how JIT manufacturing works and its key elements.
JIT manufacturing focuses on value-added processes in order to
produce high volumes of high quality, low cost products that
meet the customer needs. Its key elements are the pull system,
kanban production, small lot sizes, short setup times, uniform
plant loading, flexible resources and a streamlined layout.
4. Find an example of successful JIT manufacturing.
Toyota is a company that has successfully used JIT. It is the
company that developed JIT. JIT has resulted in short lead
times, high quality, low costs and flexible production.
5. Explain the importance of total quality management in JIT.
TQM is critical in JIT since poor quality would cause us to not
deliver the right products at the right time in the right
quantities. Poor quality would cause us to have to either spent
time fixing the product or to scrap it if it can not be fixed.
6. Find an example of successful TQM implementation.
Motorola, a winner of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality
Award, has successfully implemented TQM. Motorola is also
known for focusing on achieving six sigma quality, which
translates into about 3 defective parts per million.
7. Explain the importance of respect for people in JIT.
Respect for people is important in JIT because everyone must be
involved in managing and improving production. The
employees must work together effectively in order to
successfully implement JIT.
8. Find an example of a company that has high respect for
people.
Southwest Airlines is known for its high respect for people.
They make a great team, where everyone lends a hand to help
where needed.
9. Describe the JIT implementation process. Why should some
things be changed before others?
The JIT implementation process consists of the following steps,
which are listed in order:
· Make quality improvements.
· Reorganize the workplace.
· Reduce setup times.
· Reduce lot sizes and lead times.
· Implement layout changes.
· Switch to pull production.
· Develop relationships with suppliers.
Some steps must be done before others to allow us to be
successful. For example, we can not effectively and efficiently
reduce lot sizes until we first reduce the setup times.
10. Find examples of JIT in services. Which aspects of JIT are
easiest to apply in services?
McDonald’s has implemented JIT in their program “Made for
You.” This program, which was implemented a few years ago in
the restaurants, consists of a making food to order. It consists
of computerized kitchens with the use of some robotic
technology (Edwards, 1998). For example, Edwards points out
that machines dump fries into a basket, lower the basket into the
oil and then remove the fries when done. Doucette (1998)
states that the company revamped its point of service software,
toasters, prep tables and holding bins. According to Doucette,
the prep tables were redesigned for a smooth, more efficient,
work flows.
The easiest aspects of JIT to apply in services are the use of
multifunction workers, cycle time reductions, setup time
reductions, parallel processing, and workplace reorganization.
11. Explain how you would use JIT to make your life more
efficient.
I can focus on eliminating waste. The wastes that JIT focuses
on are time, energy, space or human activity that does not
contribute value. I live in a townhouse where my office is
upstairs, while the kitchen is downstairs. So, I try to reduce the
number of trips up and down the stairs. I leave items on the
stairs that need to go up to wait until I really need to go
upstairs.
Answers to Textbook Case – Katz Carpeting
1. What suggestions do you have for implementing JIT at Katz?
Should specials and standards be produced on the same line?
(Hint: Do they require the same type of operation?)
Specials and standards should not be produced on the same line
since they do not require the same type of operation. JIT uses
cells for manufacturing. We could easily divide these two areas
into lines or cells of their own, and even have more than one
cell per area.
2. If production of standards and specials is separated, how
different will JIT implementation be for production of the
different products? Explain what would be needed in JIT
implementation for both products.
JIT implementation will not differ much for these two types of
products. The main difference is the critical need of reducing
setup times for the production of specials. To implement JIT
for both products, we will need to perform the following steps:
1. Make quality improvements. In order to produce the right
number of products at the right time, without waste, we need to
improve quality.
2. Reorganize the workplace. The layout, cleanliness and
organization of the environment must be improved.
3. Reduce setup times. Setup times must be reduced in order to
allow us to be flexible in production, and reduce waste since
setup time does not generate income. Setup time takes away
from the production time available to produce product. In
addition, we need short setup times in order to be able to justify
production in small batches to be flexible. It is much more
important to reduce the setup times for special products since
these times are quite high.
4. Reduce lot size and lead times. Once setup times are
reduced, we can reduce the lot or batch size. Reducing the
setup times and batch sizes cause the lead times to significantly
decrease.
5. Implement layout changes. The layout needs to change in
order to improve the process. We should form line flows and
create cells of these lines.
6. Switch to pull production. The customer orders pull the
products through the production process.
7. Develop relationships with suppliers. We need to develop
relationships with suppliers in order to improve quality and
receive frequent deliveries of raw materials.
3. What suggestions do you have for improving the way the
production schedule is currently made?
JIT uses frozen schedules for manufacturing for some period of
time before allowing changes. This is what needs to be done in
order to improve production scheduling. Making frequent
changes to the schedule is disruptive.
4. How would you characterize Josh’s view of JIT? What
challenges do think a consultant will face in implementing JIT
at Katz? If you were a consultant how would you approach
these problems?
Josh does not have a positive view of JIT. A consultant would
need to overcome the resistance that Josh would show
concerning a JIT implementation. I would approach these
problems using the TOC approach for buy-in (which is
discussed in the TOC Tips section of chapter 2 of this manual).
It is important to help Josh figure out what his current problems
are and to gain a better understanding of how JIT is beneficial.
We will need to help him understand that idle time is not bad.
The goal of the company is not to keep everyone busy. It is, in
many cases, to make money now and in the future. We can
demonstrate how keeping everyone busy can actually hurt our
financial performance.
Answers to Textbook Case – Dixon Audio Systems
1.
Identify the pros and cons of a JIT relationship from a
supplier’s point of view.
A supplier such as D&S can obtain several benefits from
establishing a JIT relationship with a buyer such as Dixon.
Usually, such relationships are longer term, more cooperative,
and with a small set of vendors. D&S will then have a more
certain, steady demand for their product. They should also have
more accurate forecasts further into the future. Besides these
demand benefits, D&S could improve its production and
distribution efficiency. Better knowledge of the size and timing
of orders would allow them to plan operations more efficiently.
As they are responsible for much of the ordering, they can
better coordinate their operations with the order cycles.
However, D&S does have some reasons to be concerned also..
The relationship shifts supply responsibility to D&S. The
guaranteed business would be at risk if D&S were to forecast
or perform poorly. Further, the responsibility for placing orders
in now a D&S paid employee.
2.
Identify the pros and cons of a JIT relationship from a buyer’s
point of view.
A buyer, such as Dixon, can obtain many relationships from a
JIT relationship with a supplier. Order timing becomes the
responsibility of the vendor. Quality should improve and
deliveries should become more reliable. Through better
coordination, the supplier’s costs should improve, which may
eventually be reflected in their price.
Buyers often have several concerns of such an arrangement. For
one, seldom does a supplier have only one customer in a market.
Buyers worry that sensitive information, such as upcoming
product promotions, may become known to their competitors
through the information they share with the supplier. Buyers
are also often reluctant to give up the ability to play one vendor
against another in search for the lowest price.
3.
What factors should Dixon and D&S consider before making a
decision on this relationship?
Dixon should be concerned with whether D&S has the capacity
to deliver all that they need. They also need assurance that D&S
can meet their quality and timing requirements consistently.
Dixon should also make certain that sensitive company
information will not fall into the wrong hands. Finally, they
should make sure they are not committing to a price that may
evolve to a higher than market price if conditions change.
D&S need to protect themselves also. What are their liabilities
if they are responsible for poor quality or missed orders at
Dixon? What assurance do they have that the agreed price will
remain competitive? Also, Dixon is not their entire customer
base. Does this commitment limit their freedom to accept other,
possibly more profitable, orders?
Chapter 7
Niccole Hyatt, PhD
Chapter overview
This chapter examines the core beliefs of just-in-time systems
(JIT). The goal of reducing waste is important in JIT. JIT uses a
pull system, which is different from the push system. The key
elements of JIT are described. The critical role of TQM in JIT is
explained. The role of the employees in JIT is explained.
Finally, we gain an understanding of the impact of JIT on all
functional areas within the service and manufacturing
organizations.
objectives
Explain the core beliefs of the just-in-time (JIT) philosophy.
Describe the elements of JIT.
Explain the key elements of JIT manufacturing.
Explain the elements of total quality management (TGM) and
their role in JIT.
Describe the role of people in JIT and why respect for people is
so important.
Describe the benefi ts of JIT.
Discuss the implementation process of a successful JIT system.
Describe the impact of JIT on service and manufacturing
organizations.
JIT Philosophy and major elements
The core beliefs of JIT are the elimination of waste, the ability
of the employees to see the “bigger picture,” simple solutions,
continuous improvement, visibility, and flexibility.
JIT strives to produce the right products at the right time in the
right quantities.
Continuous improvement and flexibility are important beliefs
that help us achieve this goal.
The three major elements of JIT are just-in-time manufacturing,
total quality management (TQM), and respect for people.
How does jit manufacturing work?
JIT manufacturing focuses on value-added processes in order to
produce high volumes of high quality, and low-cost products
that meet the customer needs.
Its key elements are the pull system, kanban production, small
lot sizes, short setup times, uniform plant loading, flexible
resources, and a streamlined layout.
Toyota is a company that has successfully used JIT. It is the
company that developed JIT.
JIT has resulted in short lead times, high quality, low costs, and
flexible production.
Tqm and jit
TQM is critical in JIT since poor quality would result in not
delivering the right products at the right time in the right
quantities.
It would also cause us to either spend time fixing the product or
scrap it if it can not be fixed.
Motorola, a winner of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality
Award, has successfully implemented TQM.
Motorola is also known for focusing on achieving Six Sigma
quality, which translates into about 3 defective parts per
million.
Jit and respect for people
Respect for people is important in JIT because everyone must be
involved in managing and improving production.
The employees must work together effectively in order to
successfully implement JIT.
Southwest Airlines is known for its high respect for people.
They make a great team, where everyone lends a hand to help
when needed.
Jit implementation process
The JIT implementation process consists of the following steps,
which are listed in order:
Make quality improvements
Reorganize the workplace
Reduce setup times
Reduce lot sizes and lead times
Implement layout changes
Switch to pull production
Develop relationships with suppliers
Some steps must be done before others to allow us to be
successful. For example, we cannot effectively and efficiently
reduce lot sizes until we first reduce the setup times.
Questions?
Niccole Hyatt, PhD
Chapter 8
Niccole Hyatt, PhD
Chapter overview
The principles and steps in forecasting are described. The
various types of forecasting methods are presented and
discussed.
Qualitative and quantitative methods are compared. Choosing
the appropriate method based on the demand pattern is
discussed.
Methods for determining the accuracy of the forecasts are
presented.
objectives
Identify principles of forecasting.
Explain the steps involved in the forecasting process.
Identify types of forecasting methods and their characteristics.
Describe time series models.
Describe causal modeling using linear regression.
Compute forecast accuracy.
Explain the factors that should be considered when selecting a
forecasting model.
Explain the nine-step process of CPFR.
Forecasting introduction
Forecasts are needed as inputs to other operations decisions
such as inventory planning, production scheduling, and staff
scheduling and hiring.
Example: Sub Shop
Demand for the amount of food
Scheduling employees
Determining schedule for supplies, trash pick up
Forecasting steps
The first step is to decide what to forecast in terms of the data
to forecast and the level of detail required.
The second step is to evaluate and analyze the appropriate data.
In this step, we identify the data needed and its availability.
The third step is to select and test the forecasting model. We
must consider different factors when selecting the model such
as ease of use, cost, and accuracy.
In the fourth step, the forecasts are generated using the model.
During the last step, we monitor the accuracy of the forecasts
since we may need to change the model if the environment has
changed.
Qualitative and quantitative forecasting
Qualitative methods are subjective since they rely on the
educated guesses of the forecaster.
Quantitative forecasting methods are based on using
calculations to make forecasts. These calculations require past
data. They are more objective.
I think that qualitative methods are better because we are in a
rapidly changing environment where the past is not a good
predictor of the future.
Types of data patterns
Level patterns show a stable demand that fluctuates around the
mean. The demand for some food items is relatively stable.
A trend is where the data is either increasing or decreasing
rather steadily over time. For example, the current trend in
computer sales has been decreasing in the U.S. because less
people need to upgrade their computers.
Seasonality occurs when the season affects the level of demand.
For example, computer sales increase during the Christmas
season dramatically.
Cycles are movements in the data over longer periods of time.
The demand for housing tends to follow a cyclical pattern based
on the interest rates and other economic factors.
Time series and casual models
Time series models assume that the demand is only related to its
own past demand patterns.
Causal models assume that the some other factors affect the
variable we are trying to predict. Causal models measure the
relationship between the other factor(s) and the data we are
trying to forecast.
When thinking of level, trend, and seasonality, the same set of
models can be used in most cases.
The key difference is that an additional feature or calculation is
added to the model to adjust for the effect of the trend or
seasonality.
Questions?
Niccole Hyatt, PhD

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Chapter 7 Just-in-Time and Lean SystemsOverviewThis chapter e.docx

  • 1. Chapter 7: Just-in-Time and Lean Systems Overview This chapter examines the core beliefs of just-in-time systems (JIT). The goal of reducing waste is important in JIT. JIT uses a pull system, which is different than the push system. The key elements of JIT are described. The critical role of TQM in JIT is explained. The role of the employees in JIT is explained. Finally, we gain an understanding of the impact of JIT on all functional areas within both service and manufacturing organizations. Answers to Discussion Questions in Textbook 1. Describe the core beliefs of the JIT philosophy. The core beliefs of JIT are the elimination of waste, the ability of the employees to see the “big picture,” simple solutions, continuous improvement, visibility and flexibility. JIT strives to produce the right products at the right time in the right quantities. Continuous improvement and flexibility are important beliefs that help us achieve this goal. 2. Identify the three major elements of JIT. The three major elements of JIT are just-in-time manufacturing, total quality management (TQM) and respect for people. 3. Explain how JIT manufacturing works and its key elements. JIT manufacturing focuses on value-added processes in order to produce high volumes of high quality, low cost products that meet the customer needs. Its key elements are the pull system, kanban production, small lot sizes, short setup times, uniform plant loading, flexible resources and a streamlined layout.
  • 2. 4. Find an example of successful JIT manufacturing. Toyota is a company that has successfully used JIT. It is the company that developed JIT. JIT has resulted in short lead times, high quality, low costs and flexible production. 5. Explain the importance of total quality management in JIT. TQM is critical in JIT since poor quality would cause us to not deliver the right products at the right time in the right quantities. Poor quality would cause us to have to either spent time fixing the product or to scrap it if it can not be fixed. 6. Find an example of successful TQM implementation. Motorola, a winner of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, has successfully implemented TQM. Motorola is also known for focusing on achieving six sigma quality, which translates into about 3 defective parts per million. 7. Explain the importance of respect for people in JIT. Respect for people is important in JIT because everyone must be involved in managing and improving production. The employees must work together effectively in order to successfully implement JIT. 8. Find an example of a company that has high respect for people. Southwest Airlines is known for its high respect for people. They make a great team, where everyone lends a hand to help where needed. 9. Describe the JIT implementation process. Why should some
  • 3. things be changed before others? The JIT implementation process consists of the following steps, which are listed in order: · Make quality improvements. · Reorganize the workplace. · Reduce setup times. · Reduce lot sizes and lead times. · Implement layout changes. · Switch to pull production. · Develop relationships with suppliers. Some steps must be done before others to allow us to be successful. For example, we can not effectively and efficiently reduce lot sizes until we first reduce the setup times. 10. Find examples of JIT in services. Which aspects of JIT are easiest to apply in services? McDonald’s has implemented JIT in their program “Made for You.” This program, which was implemented a few years ago in the restaurants, consists of a making food to order. It consists of computerized kitchens with the use of some robotic technology (Edwards, 1998). For example, Edwards points out that machines dump fries into a basket, lower the basket into the oil and then remove the fries when done. Doucette (1998) states that the company revamped its point of service software, toasters, prep tables and holding bins. According to Doucette, the prep tables were redesigned for a smooth, more efficient,
  • 4. work flows. The easiest aspects of JIT to apply in services are the use of multifunction workers, cycle time reductions, setup time reductions, parallel processing, and workplace reorganization. 11. Explain how you would use JIT to make your life more efficient. I can focus on eliminating waste. The wastes that JIT focuses on are time, energy, space or human activity that does not contribute value. I live in a townhouse where my office is upstairs, while the kitchen is downstairs. So, I try to reduce the number of trips up and down the stairs. I leave items on the stairs that need to go up to wait until I really need to go upstairs. Answers to Textbook Case – Katz Carpeting 1. What suggestions do you have for implementing JIT at Katz? Should specials and standards be produced on the same line? (Hint: Do they require the same type of operation?) Specials and standards should not be produced on the same line since they do not require the same type of operation. JIT uses cells for manufacturing. We could easily divide these two areas into lines or cells of their own, and even have more than one cell per area. 2. If production of standards and specials is separated, how different will JIT implementation be for production of the different products? Explain what would be needed in JIT implementation for both products. JIT implementation will not differ much for these two types of products. The main difference is the critical need of reducing
  • 5. setup times for the production of specials. To implement JIT for both products, we will need to perform the following steps: 1. Make quality improvements. In order to produce the right number of products at the right time, without waste, we need to improve quality. 2. Reorganize the workplace. The layout, cleanliness and organization of the environment must be improved. 3. Reduce setup times. Setup times must be reduced in order to allow us to be flexible in production, and reduce waste since setup time does not generate income. Setup time takes away from the production time available to produce product. In addition, we need short setup times in order to be able to justify production in small batches to be flexible. It is much more important to reduce the setup times for special products since these times are quite high. 4. Reduce lot size and lead times. Once setup times are reduced, we can reduce the lot or batch size. Reducing the setup times and batch sizes cause the lead times to significantly decrease. 5. Implement layout changes. The layout needs to change in order to improve the process. We should form line flows and create cells of these lines. 6. Switch to pull production. The customer orders pull the products through the production process. 7. Develop relationships with suppliers. We need to develop relationships with suppliers in order to improve quality and receive frequent deliveries of raw materials. 3. What suggestions do you have for improving the way the
  • 6. production schedule is currently made? JIT uses frozen schedules for manufacturing for some period of time before allowing changes. This is what needs to be done in order to improve production scheduling. Making frequent changes to the schedule is disruptive. 4. How would you characterize Josh’s view of JIT? What challenges do think a consultant will face in implementing JIT at Katz? If you were a consultant how would you approach these problems? Josh does not have a positive view of JIT. A consultant would need to overcome the resistance that Josh would show concerning a JIT implementation. I would approach these problems using the TOC approach for buy-in (which is discussed in the TOC Tips section of chapter 2 of this manual). It is important to help Josh figure out what his current problems are and to gain a better understanding of how JIT is beneficial. We will need to help him understand that idle time is not bad. The goal of the company is not to keep everyone busy. It is, in many cases, to make money now and in the future. We can demonstrate how keeping everyone busy can actually hurt our financial performance. Answers to Textbook Case – Dixon Audio Systems 1. Identify the pros and cons of a JIT relationship from a supplier’s point of view. A supplier such as D&S can obtain several benefits from establishing a JIT relationship with a buyer such as Dixon. Usually, such relationships are longer term, more cooperative, and with a small set of vendors. D&S will then have a more certain, steady demand for their product. They should also have
  • 7. more accurate forecasts further into the future. Besides these demand benefits, D&S could improve its production and distribution efficiency. Better knowledge of the size and timing of orders would allow them to plan operations more efficiently. As they are responsible for much of the ordering, they can better coordinate their operations with the order cycles. However, D&S does have some reasons to be concerned also.. The relationship shifts supply responsibility to D&S. The guaranteed business would be at risk if D&S were to forecast or perform poorly. Further, the responsibility for placing orders in now a D&S paid employee. 2. Identify the pros and cons of a JIT relationship from a buyer’s point of view. A buyer, such as Dixon, can obtain many relationships from a JIT relationship with a supplier. Order timing becomes the responsibility of the vendor. Quality should improve and deliveries should become more reliable. Through better coordination, the supplier’s costs should improve, which may eventually be reflected in their price. Buyers often have several concerns of such an arrangement. For one, seldom does a supplier have only one customer in a market. Buyers worry that sensitive information, such as upcoming product promotions, may become known to their competitors through the information they share with the supplier. Buyers are also often reluctant to give up the ability to play one vendor against another in search for the lowest price. 3. What factors should Dixon and D&S consider before making a decision on this relationship? Dixon should be concerned with whether D&S has the capacity to deliver all that they need. They also need assurance that D&S
  • 8. can meet their quality and timing requirements consistently. Dixon should also make certain that sensitive company information will not fall into the wrong hands. Finally, they should make sure they are not committing to a price that may evolve to a higher than market price if conditions change. D&S need to protect themselves also. What are their liabilities if they are responsible for poor quality or missed orders at Dixon? What assurance do they have that the agreed price will remain competitive? Also, Dixon is not their entire customer base. Does this commitment limit their freedom to accept other, possibly more profitable, orders? Chapter 7 Niccole Hyatt, PhD Chapter overview This chapter examines the core beliefs of just-in-time systems (JIT). The goal of reducing waste is important in JIT. JIT uses a pull system, which is different from the push system. The key elements of JIT are described. The critical role of TQM in JIT is explained. The role of the employees in JIT is explained. Finally, we gain an understanding of the impact of JIT on all functional areas within the service and manufacturing organizations. objectives Explain the core beliefs of the just-in-time (JIT) philosophy. Describe the elements of JIT. Explain the key elements of JIT manufacturing.
  • 9. Explain the elements of total quality management (TGM) and their role in JIT. Describe the role of people in JIT and why respect for people is so important. Describe the benefi ts of JIT. Discuss the implementation process of a successful JIT system. Describe the impact of JIT on service and manufacturing organizations. JIT Philosophy and major elements The core beliefs of JIT are the elimination of waste, the ability of the employees to see the “bigger picture,” simple solutions, continuous improvement, visibility, and flexibility. JIT strives to produce the right products at the right time in the right quantities. Continuous improvement and flexibility are important beliefs that help us achieve this goal. The three major elements of JIT are just-in-time manufacturing, total quality management (TQM), and respect for people. How does jit manufacturing work? JIT manufacturing focuses on value-added processes in order to produce high volumes of high quality, and low-cost products that meet the customer needs. Its key elements are the pull system, kanban production, small lot sizes, short setup times, uniform plant loading, flexible resources, and a streamlined layout. Toyota is a company that has successfully used JIT. It is the company that developed JIT. JIT has resulted in short lead times, high quality, low costs, and
  • 10. flexible production. Tqm and jit TQM is critical in JIT since poor quality would result in not delivering the right products at the right time in the right quantities. It would also cause us to either spend time fixing the product or scrap it if it can not be fixed. Motorola, a winner of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, has successfully implemented TQM. Motorola is also known for focusing on achieving Six Sigma quality, which translates into about 3 defective parts per million. Jit and respect for people Respect for people is important in JIT because everyone must be involved in managing and improving production. The employees must work together effectively in order to successfully implement JIT. Southwest Airlines is known for its high respect for people. They make a great team, where everyone lends a hand to help when needed. Jit implementation process The JIT implementation process consists of the following steps, which are listed in order: Make quality improvements
  • 11. Reorganize the workplace Reduce setup times Reduce lot sizes and lead times Implement layout changes Switch to pull production Develop relationships with suppliers Some steps must be done before others to allow us to be successful. For example, we cannot effectively and efficiently reduce lot sizes until we first reduce the setup times. Questions? Niccole Hyatt, PhD Chapter 8 Niccole Hyatt, PhD Chapter overview The principles and steps in forecasting are described. The various types of forecasting methods are presented and discussed. Qualitative and quantitative methods are compared. Choosing the appropriate method based on the demand pattern is discussed. Methods for determining the accuracy of the forecasts are presented.
  • 12. objectives Identify principles of forecasting. Explain the steps involved in the forecasting process. Identify types of forecasting methods and their characteristics. Describe time series models. Describe causal modeling using linear regression. Compute forecast accuracy. Explain the factors that should be considered when selecting a forecasting model. Explain the nine-step process of CPFR. Forecasting introduction Forecasts are needed as inputs to other operations decisions such as inventory planning, production scheduling, and staff scheduling and hiring. Example: Sub Shop Demand for the amount of food Scheduling employees Determining schedule for supplies, trash pick up Forecasting steps The first step is to decide what to forecast in terms of the data to forecast and the level of detail required. The second step is to evaluate and analyze the appropriate data. In this step, we identify the data needed and its availability. The third step is to select and test the forecasting model. We must consider different factors when selecting the model such as ease of use, cost, and accuracy. In the fourth step, the forecasts are generated using the model.
  • 13. During the last step, we monitor the accuracy of the forecasts since we may need to change the model if the environment has changed. Qualitative and quantitative forecasting Qualitative methods are subjective since they rely on the educated guesses of the forecaster. Quantitative forecasting methods are based on using calculations to make forecasts. These calculations require past data. They are more objective. I think that qualitative methods are better because we are in a rapidly changing environment where the past is not a good predictor of the future. Types of data patterns Level patterns show a stable demand that fluctuates around the mean. The demand for some food items is relatively stable. A trend is where the data is either increasing or decreasing rather steadily over time. For example, the current trend in computer sales has been decreasing in the U.S. because less people need to upgrade their computers. Seasonality occurs when the season affects the level of demand. For example, computer sales increase during the Christmas season dramatically. Cycles are movements in the data over longer periods of time. The demand for housing tends to follow a cyclical pattern based on the interest rates and other economic factors.
  • 14. Time series and casual models Time series models assume that the demand is only related to its own past demand patterns. Causal models assume that the some other factors affect the variable we are trying to predict. Causal models measure the relationship between the other factor(s) and the data we are trying to forecast. When thinking of level, trend, and seasonality, the same set of models can be used in most cases. The key difference is that an additional feature or calculation is added to the model to adjust for the effect of the trend or seasonality. Questions? Niccole Hyatt, PhD