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The (recommended) EU
2040 climate target
OECD CCXG – session A3 “Insights for preparing NDCs aligned
with the outcome of GST1”
03/04/2024
2
The European Climate Law sets a clear way
towards climate neutrality in 2050
The European Climate Law:
• Sets a legally binding 2050 climate neutrality and 2030 GHG
emission reduction (at least -55% compared to 1990) target
• It also states that a climate target for 2040 shall be set
To that end, at the latest within six months of the first global stocktake
referred to in Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the Commission shall make
a legislative proposal, as appropriate, based on a detailed impact
assessment, to amend this Regulation to include the Union 2040 climate
target, taking into account the conclusions of the assessments referred to
in Articles 6 and 7 of this Regulation and the outcomes of the global
stocktake
• The recommendation for a 2040 target therefore, as requested by
law, takes into account the GST
• In turn, the 2040 recommendation informs the discussion of the
EU NDC 1
Guiding question:
How do countries
intend to reflect
calls in the GST1 to
align their next
NDCs with the 1.5oC
temperature goal
and with their LT-
LEDS?
1: See Green diplomacy: Council conclusions reaffirm the EU’s commitment to work closely with partners to
accelerate a global just and inclusive green transition - Consilium (europa.eu)
• Responds to the Climate Law
• Recommends a 90% 2040 climate target for the EU
• Presents a vision for the EU beyond 2030
• Fit for 55 framework and other measures agreed for 2030 remain unchanged
• Legislative proposal for the 2040 target & design of the post-2030 policy
framework – next Commission
• Basis for new NDC to be submitted in 2025 to the UNFCCC
➢ This Communication launches a debate
3
The 2040 Target Communication
1. A Vision beyond 2030
2. Ambitious global climate action
3. The 2040 target and a pathway to climate neutrality
4. Delivering the 2040 target
5. Conclusions and next steps
Annex: 8 building blocks
Impact assessment
4
The 2040 Target Communication
The 2040 target in a nutshell
5
Recommended target for 2040
• A 90 % net GHG reduction compared to 1990 levels
To meet this target, the analysis shows that, in 2040:
• Remaining “gross” GHG emissions in the EU should be less than 850 Mt
CO2-eq
• Carbon removals (land based and industrial) should reach up to 400 Mt
CO2
This translates into an indicative GHG budget for 2030-2050 of 16 GtCO2eq
IA Annex 8 : 1.1 (GHG emissions)
The 2040 recommendation is based on a detailed impact
assessment & corresponding to the advice of the ESABCC
6
See: Recommendation for 2040 emissions reduction target (europa.eu) See: EU climate Advisory Board recommends ambitious 2040 climate
target and urgent transitions for the European Union (europa.eu)
The 2040 target and a pathway to climate neutrality
7
Target Option 1: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of up to 80%
Target Option 2: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of at least 85% and up to 90%
Target Option 3: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of at least 90% and up to 95%
Profile of the net GHG emissions over 1990-2050
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
%
of
1990
emissions
target 2 (85-90)
target 3 (90-95)
target 1 (linear)
FF55
historical
Recommended
Target
The recommended 2040 target
8
The lowest GHG budget: 16Gt CO2-eq over 2030-2050, corresponding with the ESABCC
advice
Strategic Autonomy - greatest benefits in terms of energy independence and protection
against fossil fuel price shocks
Cost of fossil fuel imports falls significantly (from 4.1% of GDP in 2022, 2.4% in 2023, to
less than 1.4% of GDP in 2040, 0.6% last decade) – EUR 2.8 trillion saving over 2031-2050
Faster investment in novel low carbon technology deployment
The investment needed for 2031-2050 is similar across options – the recommended target
brings some energy system investment forward to 2031-2040 and then requires less
investment in 2041-2050 than other options
More investment for a Just Transition
9
The current EU NDC is likely to guide the
structure of the new EU NDC
While it is not possible to anticipate the design of the EU 2025 NDC at
this stage, the current NDC sets the benchmark as it already includes:
• Economy wide target established
• Sectors, Categories and Gases covered
Guiding question:
How do countries
intend to formulate
economy-wide
emission reduction
targets covering all
GHGs, sectors and
categories in their
next NDCs as called
for in the GST1?
GHGs
• Carbon Dioxide
• (CO2) Methane
• (CH4) Nitrous Oxide
• (N2O)
• Hydrofluorocarbons
• (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons
• (PFCs) Sulphur
• hexafluoride ((SF6)
• Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
Sectors and Categories
• Energy
• Aviation
• Maritime
• Other energy source categories in
accordance
with IPCC guidelines
• Industrial processes and product use
• Agriculture
• Waste
• Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry (LULUCF)
Conclusion and next steps
10
The 2040 target communication paves the way for a political debate and choices by
European citizens and governments on the way forward
This will inform the next Commission making the legislative proposal to include the 2040
target in the European Climate Law and designing an appropriate post-2030 policy
framework
It will further inform the EU NDC to be submitted in 2025
The current EU NDC is the benchmark for the design of the EU's post 2030 NDC,
including an economy wide target and coverage of sectors, categories and GHGs.
The European Commission recommendation sets that a net greenhouse gas figure for the
EU in 2035 will be derived once the 2040 target is agreed, for communication as part of
the new NDC.
11
Thank you!
© European Union 2024
Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are
not owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

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CCXG global forum, April 2024, Alban Kitous

  • 1. The (recommended) EU 2040 climate target OECD CCXG – session A3 “Insights for preparing NDCs aligned with the outcome of GST1” 03/04/2024
  • 2. 2 The European Climate Law sets a clear way towards climate neutrality in 2050 The European Climate Law: • Sets a legally binding 2050 climate neutrality and 2030 GHG emission reduction (at least -55% compared to 1990) target • It also states that a climate target for 2040 shall be set To that end, at the latest within six months of the first global stocktake referred to in Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the Commission shall make a legislative proposal, as appropriate, based on a detailed impact assessment, to amend this Regulation to include the Union 2040 climate target, taking into account the conclusions of the assessments referred to in Articles 6 and 7 of this Regulation and the outcomes of the global stocktake • The recommendation for a 2040 target therefore, as requested by law, takes into account the GST • In turn, the 2040 recommendation informs the discussion of the EU NDC 1 Guiding question: How do countries intend to reflect calls in the GST1 to align their next NDCs with the 1.5oC temperature goal and with their LT- LEDS? 1: See Green diplomacy: Council conclusions reaffirm the EU’s commitment to work closely with partners to accelerate a global just and inclusive green transition - Consilium (europa.eu)
  • 3. • Responds to the Climate Law • Recommends a 90% 2040 climate target for the EU • Presents a vision for the EU beyond 2030 • Fit for 55 framework and other measures agreed for 2030 remain unchanged • Legislative proposal for the 2040 target & design of the post-2030 policy framework – next Commission • Basis for new NDC to be submitted in 2025 to the UNFCCC ➢ This Communication launches a debate 3 The 2040 Target Communication
  • 4. 1. A Vision beyond 2030 2. Ambitious global climate action 3. The 2040 target and a pathway to climate neutrality 4. Delivering the 2040 target 5. Conclusions and next steps Annex: 8 building blocks Impact assessment 4 The 2040 Target Communication
  • 5. The 2040 target in a nutshell 5 Recommended target for 2040 • A 90 % net GHG reduction compared to 1990 levels To meet this target, the analysis shows that, in 2040: • Remaining “gross” GHG emissions in the EU should be less than 850 Mt CO2-eq • Carbon removals (land based and industrial) should reach up to 400 Mt CO2 This translates into an indicative GHG budget for 2030-2050 of 16 GtCO2eq IA Annex 8 : 1.1 (GHG emissions)
  • 6. The 2040 recommendation is based on a detailed impact assessment & corresponding to the advice of the ESABCC 6 See: Recommendation for 2040 emissions reduction target (europa.eu) See: EU climate Advisory Board recommends ambitious 2040 climate target and urgent transitions for the European Union (europa.eu)
  • 7. The 2040 target and a pathway to climate neutrality 7 Target Option 1: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of up to 80% Target Option 2: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of at least 85% and up to 90% Target Option 3: a net GHG reduction target in 2040 of at least 90% and up to 95% Profile of the net GHG emissions over 1990-2050 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 % of 1990 emissions target 2 (85-90) target 3 (90-95) target 1 (linear) FF55 historical Recommended Target
  • 8. The recommended 2040 target 8 The lowest GHG budget: 16Gt CO2-eq over 2030-2050, corresponding with the ESABCC advice Strategic Autonomy - greatest benefits in terms of energy independence and protection against fossil fuel price shocks Cost of fossil fuel imports falls significantly (from 4.1% of GDP in 2022, 2.4% in 2023, to less than 1.4% of GDP in 2040, 0.6% last decade) – EUR 2.8 trillion saving over 2031-2050 Faster investment in novel low carbon technology deployment The investment needed for 2031-2050 is similar across options – the recommended target brings some energy system investment forward to 2031-2040 and then requires less investment in 2041-2050 than other options More investment for a Just Transition
  • 9. 9 The current EU NDC is likely to guide the structure of the new EU NDC While it is not possible to anticipate the design of the EU 2025 NDC at this stage, the current NDC sets the benchmark as it already includes: • Economy wide target established • Sectors, Categories and Gases covered Guiding question: How do countries intend to formulate economy-wide emission reduction targets covering all GHGs, sectors and categories in their next NDCs as called for in the GST1? GHGs • Carbon Dioxide • (CO2) Methane • (CH4) Nitrous Oxide • (N2O) • Hydrofluorocarbons • (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons • (PFCs) Sulphur • hexafluoride ((SF6) • Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) Sectors and Categories • Energy • Aviation • Maritime • Other energy source categories in accordance with IPCC guidelines • Industrial processes and product use • Agriculture • Waste • Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
  • 10. Conclusion and next steps 10 The 2040 target communication paves the way for a political debate and choices by European citizens and governments on the way forward This will inform the next Commission making the legislative proposal to include the 2040 target in the European Climate Law and designing an appropriate post-2030 policy framework It will further inform the EU NDC to be submitted in 2025 The current EU NDC is the benchmark for the design of the EU's post 2030 NDC, including an economy wide target and coverage of sectors, categories and GHGs. The European Commission recommendation sets that a net greenhouse gas figure for the EU in 2035 will be derived once the 2040 target is agreed, for communication as part of the new NDC.
  • 11. 11 Thank you! © European Union 2024 Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.