Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture Proposal to prepare a compendium of case studies on adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture sector in the Indian context

1. Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture
Proposal to prepare a compendium of case studies on adaptation to Climate
Change in the Agriculture sector in the Indian context
Rahul Bhargava
August 2012
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
Methodology and foundation 1
Methodology 1
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Equipment 2
Foundation 2
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Climate variability and change guideline
NICRA technical programme 5
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Sensitivity variables 9
Adaptive capacity variables 9
Adaptation measures 10
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Description of proposed tasks 11
Glossary 14
References 14
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1 Methodology and foundation
1.1 Methodology
Both primary and secondary sources will be used to gather information. These will
include,
Review of the literature To capture the broader context and provide a frame of ref-
erence for the case studies. Also for stocktaking of existing activities related to
climate change adaptation in the Indian context and desk review.
Key informant interviews Senior managers and officials with the Government, aca-
demics, civil society and NGOs who are knowledgeable about interventions being
undertaken and their strategic value
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2. Limited survey of field personnel and beneficiaries To gather representative statistics
where none are available via representatives
Limitations and expectations Budgetary and time constraints will limit the number of
field visits, surveys and interactions possible.
1.2 Equipment
For recording Key Informant interviews, taking some lessons from the ethnographic
film and documentary literature [Lindenmuth(2010), Grimshaw(2004), Heider(2006),
Jong and Austin(2008)], I have procured equipment for field work, including a digi-
tal SRL camera, with several lenses, an electronic field recorder, lighting equipment
comprising of a flash and LED panels, various mounts and a tripod.
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
Over several months, and having taken several thousand photographs, I have im-
proved my photography skill and I am currently learning from the documentary and
ethnographic film literature how best to record interviews and field visits.
I propose to use my own equipment in the field, or where higher quality professional
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equipment is available or rentals can be costed, I can operate alternatives instead.
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Audio recording Zoom H1 portable digital recorder. Professional equipment alterna-
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tives are the Zoom H4n portable, capable of four channel simultaneous recording
or the Tascam DR-100 MkII portable digital recorder.
Photography and Video recording Canon EOS 550D with the Canon EF 50mm f/1.8
II, Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS II and Canon EF 75-300mm f/4-5.6 III lenses.
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Professional equipment alternatives are the Canon EOS 5D Mark II SLR or Nikon
D800 SLR.
GPS logging, electronic field data entry and electronic release forms Using a smart-
phone and a laptop, or dedicated alternatives including customisation of software
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by me, I am able to present GPS logs, geotagged photographs and video taken, to
those I interact with and offer release forms so that the collected data can be used
for the purposes of the study.
1.3 Foundation
I propose to refer to the following integrating framework to provide context for the case
studies in the broader scheme of climate change.
Relevance and impact of interventions in the context of an integrating framework
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3. Adaptation Impact on
Climate change human & natural
Temperature rise systems
Sea level rise Food & water resources
Precipitation change Ecosystem & biodiversity
Droughts and floods Human settlements
Human health
Adaptation
Mitigation
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Emissions Socio-economic
& concentrations develpment
Greenhouse gases Economic growth
Technology
Aerosols
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Population
Governance
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Climate change - an integrating framework
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Adapted schematic and simplified representation of an integrated assessment framework
for considering anthropogenic climate change from the Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.
Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
This summary was approved in detail at IPCC Plenary XVIII (Wembley, United Kingdom, 24-29
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September 2001) and represents the formally agreed statement of the IPCC concerning key findings and
uncertainties contained in the Working Group contributions to the Third Assessment Report.
1.4 Climate variability and change guideline
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As an example of a high level guideline on adapting to climate variability and change,
USAID offers:
Step 1 – Screen for Vulnerability Vulnerability Screening is a preliminary assessment
of whether climate variability or change could compromise the integrity, effective-
ness, or longevity of a project within the planning horizon for the project.
Step 2 – Identify adaptations Work with stakeholders to identify alternative designs or
management practices that may enable them to better cope with climate variability
and change.The emphasis should be on finding measures that increase resilience
to climate change, but still make sense under the current climate.
Step 3 – Conduct analysis consequences of climate variability and change as well as
the effectiveness, costs, and feasibility of adaptations that can reduce vulnerability
to climate variability and change.
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4. Step 4 – Select course of action Meet with stakeholders to review results of the analysis.
Determine if changes in a current project design are required or if a proposed
project should feature new adaptations.
Step 5 – Implement adaptations Prepare an implementation plan identifying next steps,
responsible staff and organisations, timeline, and resource needs required to incor-
porate the climate change adaptations into the project.
Step 6 – Evaluate adaptations Evaluate the implementation of adaptations and their
effectiveness. Since many adaptations may be due to infrequent, extreme events or
long-term climate change, it may be difficult to evaluate effectiveness in a relatively
short time period following implementation. But, at a minimum, an evaluation
can be done to see if the adaptations were put in place and whether there were
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
problems or excessive costs associated with them.
The Indian Government’s efforts directed at agricultural climate change adaptation
are being coordinated under an umbrella network project called the National Initiative
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on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). The objectives focus and provide resources
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for the efforts of a large number of agricultural research institutions. They demonstrate
that, at least in the context of Indian agriculture, there is a recognition that climate change
is already having an impact on Indian agriculture and long running efforts can help
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in adaptation by mobilising existing state institutes and infrastructure. The first steps,
involving Vulnerability Assessment were taken a couple of decades back by TERI and
others, and NICRA has revisited the monumental task of Vulnerability Assessment at a
district scale. This exercise has been, or is likely to be soon, completed for six hundred
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districts. It is evident that the resolution of detail can be increased, for quite a while yet,
and with this will arise an opportunity to better respond for adaptation in near real time;
a requirement imposed by the failure of the monsoon, for example.
Having established vulnerability and sensitivity to climate change in the agricultural
context, response is key. NICRA proposes to demonstrate geographically specific, ac-
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counting for agro-meteo-ecological-socio-economic considerations, technology packages
and to enhance the resilience of Indian agriculture covering crops, livestock and fisheries
to climatic variability from better risk management. Capacity building of scientists is
also a stated objective.
The scale of the undertaking and its ambition necessitate treating the adopted
objectives and proposed outcomes as the basis for any analysis of agricultural cli-
mate change response in India. The package-response for adaptation approach is not
unique to NICRA. Indeed, several Pusa institutes including the World Agroforestry
Centre (ICRAF)1 , Cereal System Initiative South Asia2 (CSISA), International Maize
and Wheat Improvement Center3 (CIMMYT), Stress-tolerant Rice for Africa and South
1 http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/
2 http://www.ilri.org/csisa
3 http://www.cimmyt.org/
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5. Asia4 (STRASA), International Rice Research Institute5 (IRRI) and International Livestock
Research Institute6 (ILRI) are conducting pilots. NICRA’s reach, through the existing
and well established State Agricultural Universities-Krishi Vigyan Kendra interfaces is
substantial in comparison to the four ICRAF pilots.
1.5 NICRA technical programme
NICRA proposed Technical Programme covers seven themes7
1. Vulnerability Assessment of irrigated zones and crops, viz. rice, wheat, chickpea,
adopting an approach using indicator, discussed below in their historical context,
and simulation modelling and all 600 districts and 127 NARP zones utilising
indicators and mapping secondary data supplemented by primary data collection
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from the districts
2. Comparative evaluation of farmers’ practice and real time contingency options, viz.
crops, varieties, cropping systems and land management practices) at major rain-
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fed agro-ecological zones to be carried out by 23 ACRIPDA centres. Customised
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agro advisories at the village level through the State Agricultural Universities-
Krishi Vigyan Kendra (SAU-KVK) interface with real time feed back, are to be pilot
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tested
3. Standardising high-throughput phenotyping for wheat, rice, maize, pigeon pea,
tomato and mango and field screening of germplasm for climatic stresses including
development of transgenic varieties and identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL)
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for heat, drought and flood tolerance.
4. Soil, water and nutrient management and agro-forestry. The measurement of
Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and an exploration of the measured benefits of soil
carbon sequestration through biochar under rainfed and irrigated conditions.
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5. Collection of historical data on pest and disease dynamics and real-time data
from AICRP centres on rice, pigeon-pea, groundnut, mango and tomato. The
identification of pest and disease hotspots, including the identification of insect,
pest and pathogen shifts in response to climate change, the development of pest
and disease forewarning models
6. Survey of livestock breeds and farming systems in relation to climate data. Nutri-
tional studies in cattle. Collection of long term national weather and disease data.
Survey of pig and poultry germplasm in relation to climate.
4 http://strasa.org
5 http://www.irri.org/
6 http://www.ilri.org/
7 http://www.nicra-icar.in/nicrarevised/index.php/strategic-research/
technical-programme
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6. 7. Analysis of climate data in relation to pisciculture production. The development
of a methodology for impact of climate change on maturation of fish.
NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment focuses on weather indicators and a few socio-
economic indicators.
It is evident from the literature that concentration, biological, physical and economic
indicators are considered important. It would be worthwhile to revisit what NICRA has
achieved in shedding light on the situational assessment outside their chosen indicators
in the case studies.
To arrive at a situational assessment of the impact of climate change, changes have
to be measured over time. For illustration, a few incomplete tables from IPCC’s Third
Assessment Report are reproduced below:
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
Indicator Observed changes
Concentration indicators
280 ppm from 1000 − 1750 to 368 ppm in
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Atmospheric concentration of CO2
the year 2000, 31 ± 4% increase
Terrestrial biospheric CO2 exchange
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Cumulative source 30 GtC between 1800
to in the year 2000; net sink 14 ± 7 GtC
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Atmospheric concentration of CH4 700 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 1750 ppb in
2000, 151 ± 25% increase
Atmospheric concentration of N2 O 270 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 316 ppb in
the year 2000, 17 ± 5% increase
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Tropospheric concentration of O3 Increased by 35 ± 15% from the years 1750
to 2000, varies with region
Stratospheric concentration of O3 Decreased over the years 1970 to 2000,
varies with altitude and latitude.
Atmospheric concentrations of HFCs, Increased globally over the last 50 years.
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PFCs, and SF6
Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s atmosphere
Indicator Observed changes
Weather indicators
Global mean surface temperature Increased by 0.6 ± 0.2◦ C over the 20th
century; land areas warmed more than
the oceans (very likelya )
Northern hemisphere surface tempera- Increase over the 20th century greater
ture than during any other century in the last
1,000 years; 1990s warmest decade of the
millennium (likely).
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7. Indicator Observed changes
Diurnal surface temperature range Decreased over the years 1950 to 2000
over land: nighttime minimum temper-
atures increased at twice the rate of day-
time maximum temperatures (likely).
Hot days / heat index Increased (likely).
Cold / frost days Decreased for nearly all land areas during
the 20th century (very likely).
Continental precipitation Increased by 5 − 10% over the 20th cen-
tury in the Northern Hemisphere (very
likely), although decreased in some re-
gions (e.g., north and west Africa and
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parts of the Mediterranean).
Heavy precipitation events Increased at mid- and high northern lati-
tudes (likely).
Frequency and severity of drought Increased summer drying and associated
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incidence of drought in a few areas (likely).
a In some regions, such as parts of Asia
and Africa, the frequency and intensity of
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droughts have been observed to increase
in recent decades.
Biological and physical indicators
Global mean sea level
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Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness
Non-polar glaciers etc.
Economic indicators
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Weather-related economic losses
a Where appropriate, the authors of the Third Assessment Report assigned confidence levels
that represent their collective judgement in the validity of a conclusion based on observational
evidence, modelling results, and theory that they have examined. The following words have
been used throughout the text of the Synthesis Report to the TAR relating to WGI findings:
virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90 − 99% chance);
likely (66 − 90% chance); medium likelihood (33 − 66% chance); unlikely (10 − 33% chance);
very unlikely (1 − 10% chance); and exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance). An explicit
uncertainty range (±) is a likely range. Estimates of confidence relating to WG II findings are:
very high (95% or greater), high (67-95%), medium (33 − 67%), low (5 − 33%), and very low (5%
or less). No confidence levels were assigned in WG III.
Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s climate and biophysical system.
Next, contributors to climate change are presented, for illustration,
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8. Greenhouse gas Global warming potential (GWP)
Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) 1
Methane (CH4 ) 23
Nitrous oxide (N2 O) 296
Hydrofluorocabons (HFCs) from 12 to 12, 000a
Perflurocarbons (PFCs) from 5,000 to 12, 000a
Sulphur hexaflouride (SF6 )
from Ramaswamy, V. et al. 2001. In Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y. Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der
Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
a Range of values from different HFCs or PFCs. Moomaw, W. R., Moreira, J. R. et al. 2001.
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Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction. In Metz, B.,
Davidson, O., Swart, R., Pan, J. (eds.) 2001. Climate change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of
Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 3 and its appendix.
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Greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol and their global warming potentials
(GWPs) on a mass basis relative to carbon dioxide and for a time horizon of 100 years.
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Under NICRA, some effort is being made to evaluate Indian agriculture’s contribu-
tion to climate change. Certain measuring instruments have been commissioned, flux
towers, for example. These readings will not be representative by a large margin, as the
number of such instruments across the country are in the digits.
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Also, satellites operated by various consortia and Governments including the Indian
Government are able to report surface temperature to an accuracy within some bounds.
Occlusion by clouds and other factors necessitate ground-truthed data. Temperature
and rainfall data, at least at a district level resolution, is routinely collected by the
Meteorological Department. It is known from several studies, including one by NCAER
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in 2005, that the benefits of weather forecasting, agro-met advisories and the like, that
are possible and improve as a consequence of higher resolution weather variable data
collection, are disproportionately high relative to cost.
For NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment exercise, the following indicators were con-
sidered:
Exposure
Impact, Adaptive capacity Vulnerability
Sensitivity
NICRA’s Components of vulnerability
1. Drought related
(a) Frequency of occurrence of meteorological drought (moderate and severe),
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9. (b) Number of dry spells during Kharif (June to October);
(c) Rainfall in June and July;
(d) Rainfall during December to April because of Western Disturbances which
have impact on specific regions
2. Flood related number of events of rainfall of above 100mm in 3 consecutive days;
to be linked to soil type and run-off
3. Heat wave As per IMD8 definition (number of days max. temperature exceeds
normal by X ◦ C)
4. Cold wave As per IMD definition (number of days min. Temperature falls below
normal by X ◦ C)
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5. Frost number of nights with < 0◦ C
6. Extreme rainfall events Frequency of 95 and 99 percentile rainfall
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7. Total rainfall
8. Number of rainy days
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1.6 Sensitivity variables
1. Percent rainfed area (latest available)
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2. Replenishable ground water levels
3. Crop sensitivity (to be obtained from simulation modelling and statistical analysis
4. Degraded land or trends in land use
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5. Population density
6. Coast length
1.7 Adaptive capacity variables
1. Per capita income or per capita monthly expenditure (latest available)
2. Poverty incidence
3. Per capita non-agricultural GDP
4. Per cent of workers engaged in agriculture
5. Literacy
8 India Meteorological Department
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10. 6. SC/ST population
7. Average land holding size
1.8 Adaptation measures
Several organisations including ICRAF, Cereal System Initiative South Asia9 (CSISA)
and the national and state extension machinery, including the Agricultural Technology
Management Agencies10 (ATMA), are proposing and undertaking adaptation measures.
A general list of measures is,
Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation
Protection of groundwater re- Better use of recycled water
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sources
Water Resources Improved management and Conservation of water catchment
maintenance of existing water areas
supply systems
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Protection of water catchment ar- Improved system of water man-
eas
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Improved water supply
agement
Water policy reform including
pricing and irrigation policies
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Groundwater and rainwater har- Development of flood controls
vesting and desalination and drought monitoring
Erosion control Development of toler-
ant/resistant crops (to drought,
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salt, insect/pests)
Agriculture and Dam construction for irrigation Research and development
food security Changes in fertiliser use and ap- Soil-water management
plication
Introduction of new crops Diversification and intensifica-
tion of food and plantation crops
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Soil fertility maintenance Policy measures, tax incen-
tives/subsidies, free market
Changes in planting and harvest- Development of early warning
ing times systems
Switch to different cultivars
Educational and outreach pro-
grammes on conservation and
management of soil and water
Public health management re- Development of early warning
form system
Human health
Improved housing and living con- Better and/or improved dis-
ditions ease/vector surveillance and
monitoring
9 http://www.ilri.org/csisa
10 http://vistar.nic.in/projects/revised_ATMA_Guidelines.pdf
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11. Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation
Improved emergency response Improvement of environmental
quality
Changes in urban and housing de-
sign
Improvement of management sys- Creation of parks/reserves, pro-
tems including control of de- tected areas and biodiversity cor-
Terrestrial forestation, reforestation and af- ridors policy
ecosystems forestation
Promoting agro-forestry to im- Identification/development
prove forest goods and services of species resistant to climate
change
Development/improvement of Better assessment of the vulnera-
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
national forest fire management bility of ecosystems
plans
Improvement of carbon storage Monitoring of species
in forests
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Development and maintenance of
seed banks
a Including socioeconomic factors
in management
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Protection of economic infrastruc- Integrated coastal zone manage-
Coastal zones and ture ment
marine ecosystems Public awareness to enhance pro- Better coastal planning and zon-
tection of coastal and marine ing
ecosystems
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Building sea walls and beach re- Development of legislation for
inforcement coastal protection
Protection and conservation of Research and monitoring of
coral reefs, mangroves, sea grass coasts and coastal ecosystems
and littoral vegetation
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This table is from ‘National communications of non-Annex I Parties and UNFCCC Sixth com-
pilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I
to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Addendum 5. Climate change impacts, adaptation
measures and response strategies. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in Developing Countries.’
2 Description of proposed tasks
• 8 good practices (4 through primary verification and 4 through desk review) on
successful climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector in India.
1. Review the status of stress tolerant crop research, cereals and pulses, and
progress on adoption through participatory seed selection and production in
Madhya Pradesh, Bihar or Uttar Pradesh. Reach NICRA, CIMMYT, CSISA
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12. and STRASA to learn about research and leading NGOs such as Action for So-
cial Advancement (ASA) in Madhya Pradesh and NEFORD in Uttar Pradesh;
NICRA’s interventions involves “introducing drought/temperature tolerant
varieties, advancement of planting dates of rabi crops in areas with terminal
heat stress, water saving paddy cultivation methods (SRI, aerobic, direct
seeding), frost management in horticulture through fumigation, community
nurseries for delayed monsoon, custom hiring centres for timely planting,
location specific intercropping systems with high sustainable yield index”
2. Reach ILRI to learn about livestock related breeds and climate change adapta-
tion interventions.
3. Review the status of Conservation Agriculture efforts including technol-
ogy demonstrations by CSISA and others with an emphasis on localised
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
approaches with pro-poor bias
4. Assess the status of the national coordinated response by NICRA who have
carried out Vulnerability Assessments in all districts and are carrying out
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technology demonstrations. Earlier, exposure and sensitivity were measured,
by TERI, by a climate sensitivity index that measured dryness, that is drought
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sensitivity, and monsoon dependence, that is average of extreme rainfall
events; adaptive capacity was measured by combining bio-physical, consist-
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ing of, soil depth, severity of soil degradation and annually replenishable
groundwater and extreme temperatures can be considered in addition, socio-
economic, namely, human capital measured by literacy, alternative economic
activities and landless labourers, and technological factors, namely, the ratio
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between net irrigated area and net sown area, Infrastructure Development
Index, transport, energy, irrigation, banking, education and health, to which fi-
nancial inclusion and risk mitigation through insurance can be added. NICRA
assesses exposure as being drought related, that is, number and frequency of
dry spells, Karif and Rabi rainfall), flood related, occurrence of heat waves,
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cold waves, frost, extreme rainfall etc. Rainfed area, replenishable ground-
water, crop sensitivity, degraded land, population density and coast length
variables are considered for sensitivity. Adaptive capacity is dependent on
per capita income or expenditure, poverty incidence, workers engaged in
agriculture, literacy, marginalised population and average land holding.
5. Assess the situation on the ground related to financial innovation including
weather based crop insurance with inputs from the Agriculture Insurance
Company of India Limted (AIC) and the technical assistance partners includ-
ing the World Bank and ICRISAT; Here too NICRA’s interventions include
“strengthening or creating seed banks, fodder banks, commodity groups, cus-
tom hiring centre, collective marketing, introduction of weather index based
insurance and climate literacy through a village level weather station”
6. Reviewing in-situ moisture conservation, water harvesting and recycling for
supplemental irrigation, improved drainage in flood prone areas, conserva-
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13. tion tillage where appropriate, artificial ground water recharge and water
saving irrigation methods
7. Weather forecasting and advisories in Tamil Nadu, for example, where the
state has invested in their own infrastructure
8. Promising technologies and approaches (CRIDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT)
• Develop a template for developing such good practices into case studies based on
this proposal and information from relevant past and further interactions
• Liaising with various agencies identified above, including national and state
Governments, ICAR, agricultural universities, civil society, and other scientific
organisations to identify and recommend such practices.
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
• Identify and capture 4 case studies through field verification and consultation with
various stakeholders.
• Identify and capture 4 case studies through detailed desk review by assessing
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the current status/ overview/ situation analysis of climate change adaptation in
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agriculture sector in India (macro, micro and meso levels).
• These case studies could be preceded by a brief critical review of key interventions/
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programmes / institutions/ agencies operating in the agriculture sector; key
barriers and challenges for the climate change adaptation in agriculture sector.
• Prepare a compendium of 8 case studies (4 through primary verification and 4
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through desk review) on good practices in Climate Change Adaptation in the
Indian context.
Based on the above, I propose four field trips to
1. Tamil Nadu to assess the efficacy of better meteo forecasts and the State’s response
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to Climate Change
2. Hyderabad to visit CRIDA to learn more about NICRA, and ICRISAT to learn
about emerging technologies and approaches
3. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh to gain insight and assess the progress made
by civil society and established NGOs.
There are several macro questions that remain unanswered such as, if anyone is at-
tempting carbon accounting and with what success? Carbon accounting is necessarily
approximate, usually done in the agricultural context, by reference to controlled field
experiments. It is critical for claiming carbon credits, however.
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14. 3 Glossary
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially by
climate related stimuli. This encompasses all elements of climate change, including
mean climate change characteristics, climate variability and the frequency and
magnitude of extremes. This may be direct, e.g. a change in crop yield due to a
change in the mean, range or variability of temperature or indirect, e.g. the damage
caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise.
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, variability and
extremes, to moderate potential damage to take advantage of opportunities or to
cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope
c Copyright 2012 Rahul Bhargava
with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change
and also the extent to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive
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capacity
References
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