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MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008
1. Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe
4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls
3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel
Sergey Yaremenko,
MRC (Market Report Company)
2. Market Report Company
We cooperate with 50 biggest
worldwide chemical and
petrochemical companies from
TOP-100
2
3. Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe
4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls
3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel
Sergey Yaremenko,
MRC (Market Report Company)
4. Agenda
General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda)
World Caustic Soda Market
Caustic Soda Market in CEE & Russia
Biggest Russian consumers of Caustic Soda
Current Russian Caustic Soda Production
Outlook of Russian production till 2012
4
5. Agenda
General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda)
5
10. The world market
Source: Harriman Chemsult
World Caustic Soda market, m m
n t
60
40
20
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Others NA EE & CIS WE Asia
CMAI: Asia will continue to add a lot of chlor-alkali capacities.
There are no major capacity additions scheduled in the European and American regions until 2008.
The continued acceleration of chlor-alkali capacity expansion in China to support the vinyls industry is expected to
result in a caustic surplus in this region.
10
11. Major Caustic Soda flows, 1996,2000,2006 (000 mt)
Source: Harriman Chemsult
11
12. The biggest world importers & exporters
Source: Harriman Chemsult
12
27. Russian caustic market in 2007
Consumption, 000 DMT
Production, 000 DMT
100
120
75
90
50
60
25
30
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Export, 000 DMT Import, 000 DMT
28 4
21 3
14 2
7 1
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: MRC
27
28. Russian caustic market in 2007
Export to Production,% Import to Consumption,%
30% 5%
24% 4%
18% 3%
12% 2%
6% 1%
0% 0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
08 08
Production in 2007, %
Kirovo-Chepetsk
Export in 2007, %
Sibur-Neftechem 6%
others Georgia 2% others 5%
7%
16%
Chemprom,
Volgograd Finland 2%
7% Azerbaijan
Chemprom,
9% Ukraine
Novocheboksarsk
7% Caustic, Sterlitamak 38%
Usolyechemprom 18% Kazakhstan
8% 14%
Sayanskchemplast Caustic.
13% Volgograd
Turkey
17%
30%
Source: MRC
28
31. Russian PVC resin market in 2007
Production, KT
Apparent Consumption, KT
60
80
45
60
30
40
15
20
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
08
08
Import to Apparent Consumption,%
Import, KT
60%
40
30 ! 45%
30%
20
15%
10
0%
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
08 08
Source: MRC
31
32. Import of PVC-S: Asia wins
Import in 2006, %
Import in 2007, %
others
others Netherlands
7%
15% 2%
Turkey Romania
5% 3%
China
Taiwan
31%
Hungary 7%
China
5% Norway 44%
Netherlands 8%
53%
5%
Hungary 72%
Finland 8%
South Korea
8% South Korea
Norway 22%
9% 21%
By Producers, 2006, %
By Producers, 2007, %
Xinjiang Tianye
14% others
others
Oltchim 12%
35%
3%
LG
Tianjin Dagu
11% Xinjiang Tianye
5%
36%
Formosa
Hanwha 7%
11%
BorsodChem BorsodChem
5% Hydro 8%
Shandong Finnplast 10% LG
Hydro
6% 8% Hanwha 11%
10%
11%
32
Source: MRC
33. Currency rate is an additional market driver
EUR/USD +16%
Additional advantage of
Asian & US producers in
Europe
EUR/RUB USD/RUB UAH/RUB
+ 6%
- 9% - 8%
Source: MRC
33
34. Agenda
Outlook of Russian production till 2012
24
35. Russian Caustic Soda Market
New
Caustic Soda market till 2012, dmt PVC
project
1 600
1 200
800
400
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Production Export Import
Source: MRC
34
36. Caustic Soda Balance till 2015: Nikochem
Source: Nikochem
Production Capacities, Kta Caustic Soda D and, 000 D T
em M Caustic Soda Production, 000 D T
M
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Big hope on Komi Alumina project (1.4 mln. MT or 150,000 mt of Caustic Soda)
35
37. Caustic Soda Balance till 2012: MRC
P dem
VC and P production
VC Ethylene D and
em
KT
Caustic Soda Equivalent Caustic Soda Production Caustic Soda D and
em
1 600
1 200
800
400
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: MRC
37
38. Production chain of PVC
0,66 MT
Caustic and ethylene – key limitations
Chlorine Caustic for Russian PVC producers
0,57 MT
1,03 MT 1 MT
EDC VCM PVC
Ethylene
Oxychloride Hydrochloric
0,43 MT acid
Oxygen
38
39. Current PVC production balance, KT
PVC VCM Chlorine Chlorine Ethylene Ethylene
Producers Salt
capacity capacity needs production needs deliveries
Sayanskchemplast 250 270 150 103 103 variable own
Caustik Sterlitamak 150 160 89 193 72 variable own
Nikos 80 80 42 181 40 variable own
Sibur-Neftechim 42 36 20 77 15 stable supplied
Azot 47 45 25 70 - acetylene supplied
Pervomaysk 50 - 26 100 - not own
Usolechemprom 24 26 14 56 - variable own
Chemprom Volgograd 27 27 15 - - variable own
Karpatneftechem - 370 150 104 104 stable supplied
Total* 670 644 371 780 230 - -
* without Kalush
Source: MRC
39
40. Resume
• Chinese producers have to find the balance in chlorine /caustic soda
• Eastern European production balance generally will not change in future
• New PVC production in Russia will increase the supply of Caustic Soda
• Export of Caustic Soda will be correlated with Komi project performance
• We will not observe the deficit of Caustic Soda in Russia till 2012
40